NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS) 20170000762: Identifying Stratospheric Air Intrusions and Associated Hurricane-Force Wind Events over the North Pacific Ocean

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by  NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Identifying stratospheric air intrusions and associated hurricane-force wind events over the north Pacific Ocean
INTRODUCTION CASE STUDY ANALYSIS
Motivation Name/Identifier Date Range Reasons for Interest 18 Jan 20Z
Rapid Development
• Ocean data is sparse
• RGB Airmass really shows the
Bering Sea Bomb December 10-13, • One of the strongest (924 mb center)
• Reliance on satellite imagery for marine forecasting
stream of dry, high PV air
2015 non-tropical storms on record
GOES-16
• Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) – “mariner’s weather lifeline”
• Large impacts
• Vortex lobe’s streamers
• Responsible for:
Winter ‘Underdog’ January 17-19, • Developed rapidly despite small size intersecting with original streamer
• Pacific, Atlantic, Pacific Alaska surface analyses – 24, 48, 96 hr
2016 • Hard to distinguish its early features
• Comma cloud getting brighter
• Wind & wave analyses – 24, 48, 96 hr
Spring Transition April 5-9, 2016 • Late season cyclone
• Issue warnings, make decisions
• Atypical development
• Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite – R Series (now GOES-16)4 Intersection of dry air from
TC Songda Transition October 12-15, • Lost most of its tropical features
multiple systems
• Compared to the old GOES:
2016 • Atypical extratropical transition &
• 3x spectral resolution
development
• 4x spatial resolution Rapid Development
Image Courtesy of NOAA/NASA
• 5x faster coverage Winter Underdog
• Anomalous ozone becoming
• Comparable to Japanese Meteorological Agency’s Himawari-8, used a lot throughout this research Early features more condensed
17 Jan 00Z
• PV streamer
• AIRS and ATMS/CrIS
Research Question: How can integrating satellite data imagery and derived products help forecasters improve
• Baroclinic relatively agree
prognosis of rapid cyclogenesis and hurricane-force wind events?
leaf
• AIRS suggesting 150%+
Phase I – Identifying stratospheric air intrusions
supplying
climatology
 Water Vapor – 6.2, 6.9, 7.3 μm channels
 AIRS, IASI, NUCAPS total column ozone & ozone anomaly
latent heat
• Know system must be
AIRS
ATMS/CrIS
 Airmass RGB Product
 ASCAT (A/B) and AMSR-2 wind data • Piece of
rapidly intensifying
19 Jan 00Z
19 Jan 00Z
vorticity
absorbed by
BACKGROUND 19 Jan 18Z
streamer
Stratospheric Air Intrusions Latent heat energy from Mid-level circulation= Intrusion and cloud
Troposphere Stratosphere
this system vertical motion & vorticity development begin
AKA: tropopause folds, stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE),
dry intrusion Higher humidity Lower humidity
18 Jan 10Z Rapid
• Exchanges of air between stratosphere and troposphere
Development
Lower potential vorticity Higher potential
• Importance to weather systems1,3
• Small comma
values vorticity values
• +PV anomaly changes in vertical distribution of
cloud
potential temperature & vorticity Lower ozone Higher ozone
• Clear dry
• Promotes rapid cyclogenesis
belt
Peak Intensity
• Vortex lobe
DATA & METHODS
north of • Before peak intensity, cloud head becomes more
19 Jan 23Z
system that zonally oriented
Himawari-8 Airmass RGB Total Column Ozone & Ozone Anomaly
threatens
• Vortex shedding
Peak Intensity
• Used to help quantify Airmass RGB
• Can spot the dry belt, cold front, occlusion
• AMSR-2 picks up hurricane-force
Stream of dry air still Comma cloud Vortex lobe
• Examples of instruments:
feeding system develops • Warm seclusion? winds right outside occlusion
1. Aqua’s Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS)
2. S-NPP's Cross-track Infrared Sounder/Advanced
CONCLUSION REFERENCES
C Technology Microwave Sounder (CrIS/ATMS)
P
O
/
P
E
C 3. Metop-B’s Infrared Atmospheric Sounding
N
/
A 1. Browning, K.A. 1997. The dry intrusion perspective of extra-tropical cyclone development. Meteorol. Appl., 4(4): pp.
A
O Interferometer (IASI)
Summary
N 317–324.
f
o
ys • Stratospheric air intrusions  +PV  Explosive cyclogenesis  Hurricane-force winds 2. Berndt, E.B., B. T. Zavodsky and M. J. Folmer. 2016. Development and Application of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder
e
t
r Ozone Retrieval Products for Operational Meteorology. IEEE T. Geosci. Remote, 54(2), pp. 958-967. doi:
u
o
C • Single Water Vapor channels supply forecasters with information about jet stream interactions
10.1109/TGRS.2015.2471259.
and tropopause folds 3. Kew, S.F., M. Sprenger, and H.C. Davies. 2010. Potential Vorticity Anomalies of the Lowermost Stratosphere: A 10-Yr
• Each color band
Winter Climatology. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 1234–1249, doi: 10.1175/2009MWR3193.1.
• Can only look at one single layer of atmosphere at a time
represents a wavelength
4. NOAA & NASA. 2016. GOES-R. Retrieved from www.goes-r.gov.
• Doesn’t give information about if air is from stratosphere
(difference) 5. Zavodsky, B.T., A.L. Molthan, and M.J. Folmer. 2013. Multispectral Imagery for Detecting Stratospheric Air Intrusions
Associated with Mid-Latitude Cyclones. J. of Oper. Meteor., 1(7): 71-83.
• Potential in Airmass RGB + ozone products to identify stratospheric air intrusions
• Different wavelengths
• Demonstrated in case studies
capture different layers
• Experimental for real-time use ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
of atmosphere
Courtesy of Emily Berndt
Scatterometer & Microwave Radiometer
Future Work
Himawari-8 Water Vapor
I would like to thank my mentors:
• Used to verify hurricane-force • Finishing case studies
Upper-layer Middle-layer Lower-layer
Michael Folmer, Joe Phillips, and Joe
• Similar satellite imagery
• 6.2 µm channel • 6.9 µm channel • 7.3 µm channel
Sienkiewicz from Ocean Prediction
• Incorporating MERRA-2 global reanalysis model
• Peak response at • Peak response at • Peak response at Center, and Emily Berndt from NASA
visualization
~350 mb ~450 mb ~650 mb SPoRT.
Gale-force Storm-force Hurricane-force • Preview of Jan 17 intrusion
I would also like to thank University
Scatterometer • Build instructional toolkit for OPC and Alaskan
of Maryland for their support and
• Measures backscatter of radar Weather Forecast Offices
guidance.
• More real-time use
signal for wind speed & direction
• Training for RGB Airmass and ozone products as
e.g. Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT A/B)
CONTACT
Microwave Radiometer supplementary information about stratospheric air
• Measures microwave signal intrusions
• Apply to GOES-16
response for only wind speed
[email protected]
Cross-section (170⁰E, 30 ⁰ to 60⁰N) of intrusion for 17 January 2230 UTC with PV anomaly with respect to 2 PVU as
e.g. Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer
Cooler [email protected]
Warmer
dynamical tropopause; (left) overlaid with potential temperature and (right) overlaid with zonal wind
(AMSR-2)
“high moisture”
“low moisture”