NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS) 20130000821: The Long-Term Stability of the LEO Debris Population and the Challenges for Environment Remediation

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by  NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration
The Long-Term Stability of the LEO
Debris Population and the Challenges for
Environment Remediation
J.-C. Liou, PhD
NASA Orbital Debris Program Office
Johnson Space Center, Houston, Texas
[email protected]
JAXA Space Debris Workshop
JAXA HQ, Chofu Aerospace Center, Tokyo, 21-24 January 2013
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Outline
• Buildup of the Orbital Debris (OD) Population
• Projected Growth of the OD Population
• Options for Environment Remediation
• Challenges Ahead
2/25 JCL
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Buildup of the Orbital Debris Population
3/25 JCL
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Growth of the Cataloged Populations
Monthly Number of Objects in Earth Orbit by Object Type
18,000
17,000
16,000 Total Objects
15,000
Fragmentation Debris
14,000
Spacecraft
13,000
s 12,000
Mission-related Debris
t
c
11,000
e
j Rocket Bodies
b 10,000
O
Iridium-Cosmos
9,000
f
o
8,000
r
e
b 7,000
m FY-1C ASAT Test ~1100 are
6,000
u
operational
N
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2
5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Year
4/25 JCL
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
The LEO Environment
January 2013 SSN Catalog
6.5E‐08
6.0E‐08 All objects
FY‐1C + Iridium + Cosmos fragments
5.5E‐08
FY‐1C fragments
5.0E‐08
Iridium + Cosmos fragments
)
3 4.5E‐08
m
k
/
o 4.0E‐08
n
(
y
t 3.5E‐08
i
s
n
e
D 3.0E‐08

l
a
ti 2.5E‐08
a
p
S
2.0E‐08
1.5E‐08
1.0E‐08
5.0E‐09
0.0E+00
200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
Altitude (km)
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National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Mass in Orbit
Monthly Mass of Objects in Earth Orbit by Object Type
7
Total Objects
6
Spacecraft
g) 5 Rocket Bodies
k

f
o Fragmentation Debris

s
n
o 4 Mission-related Debris
li No sign of slowing down!
l
i
m
(

t
bi 3
r
O

n
i
s
s 2
a
M
1
0
6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2
5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Year
6/25 JCL
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
The Big Sky Is Getting Crowded
• Four accidental collisions between cataloged
objects have been identified
– The collision between Cosmos 2251 and the operational Iridium 33 in
2009 underlined the potential of the Kessler Syndrome
• The US Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) is
currently providing conjunction assessments for all
operational S/C
– JSpOC issues ~10 to 30 conjunction warnings on a daily basis, and
more than 100 collision avoidance maneuvers were carried out by
satellite operators in 2010
• The International Space Station (ISS) has conducted
16 debris avoidance maneuvers since 1999
– 5 times since April 2011
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National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Projected Growth of the Debris Population
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National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Effectiveness of Postmission Disposal (PMD)
LEGEND Simulations (averages of 100 Monte Carlo runs per scenario)
60,000
O
E Reg launches + 0% PMD
L 50,000

n Reg launches + 10% PMD
i

)
m
Reg launches + 50% PMD
c

0
1 40,000 Reg launches + 75% PMD
≥
(
s Reg launches + 95% PMD
t
c
e
j
b 30,000
O

f
o

r
e
b
m 20,000
u
N

e
v
i Future projection: 2011-2211
t
c 10,000
e
f
f
E
Historical environment: 1957-2011
0
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2110 2130 2150 2170 2190 2210
(assuming no future explosions)
Year
9/25 JCL
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Projected Catastrophic Collisions in LEO
LEGEND Simulations (averages of 100 Monte Carlo runs per scenario)
70
O
E
L Reg launches + 0% PMD

n
i 60 Reg launches + 10% PMD
s
n
o
Reg launches + 50% PMD
i
s
i
l
ol 50 Reg launches + 75% PMD
C
c Reg launches + 95% PMD
i
h
p
40
o
r
t
s
a
t
a
C 30

f
o

r
e
b
20
m
u
N

e
v
10
i
t
a
l
u
m
u
0
C
2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2110 2130 2150 2170 2190 2210
Year (assuming no future explosions)
10/25 JCL