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[ 93- I387i Baseline Program Barney B. Roberts and Jesco von Puttkamer Assumptions As for budget estimates, only low to moderate growth after The workshop agreed to use a adjustment for inflation was proposed NASA plan as the assumed. A key principle baseline program. This assumed underlying the proposed program program has been developed from is that maximum benefits will be several sources of information obtained from commonality and and is extrapolated over future subsystem evolution. Technologies decades using a set of reasonable and program elements will be assumptions based on incremental synergistic and integrated to allow growth. The principal source of one project to use capabilities basic data was a presentation given developed by another. In addition, to the workshop by Jesco von the NASA planners tried to make Puttkamer, representing NASA's realistic and practical estimates advanced planning activities. This of the technology developments work shows the space program required to support each phase of planning efforts divided into four design and construction. Using domains (fig. 1). Future activities this information and previous are planned with balanced history on the programmatics emphasis among these four domains. involved in the development of space hardware, NASA constructed It was considered reasonable to a phased, evolutionary set of scenarios that we consider assume that the level of activity reasonable. would remain constant in order to stabilize the use of public To summarize, the assumptions for resources. This assumption the NASA baseline program are as resulted in a sequence of programs follows: with waxing and waning budget requirements. As one program • Balanced emphasis in four decreases in construction and domains development costs and becomes • Constant level of activity operational, public resources are • Low to moderate real budget made available for the next growth program. This approach levels the impact on facilities and capital • Maximum use of commonality investments and maintains a skilled • Realistic and practical and experienced work force. technology development PRECEDING P_GE BLA_'tK NOT FtLME, D (I) LEO Space Station Figure I Although the Soviets have had cosmonauts continuously occupying their Mir spacecraft NASA's Advanced Planning for some time, the U.S. space station will NASA is planning a ba/anced program, be the first permanently occupied space withroughly equal emphasis given to outpost in the American space program. each of four domains. The firstdomain The space station will be the location for a is low Earth orbit (LEO). Activities there varie_/ of Earth observations and for many are concentrated on the space station scientific and engineering experiments in but extend on one side to Earth-pointing microgravity. It will also be a transportation sensors from unmanned platforms and node and servicing center for satellites and on the other to the launch and staging space vehicles. of unmanned solar system exploration missions. Thesecond domain is geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO) and cislunar space. Activities there include Location in geos_nchronous orbit is all GEOmissions and operations, both requlred _oFrn6_t lypes ot'cornmunication unmanned and manned, and all satellites. Because this orbit is filling up. a transport of materials and crews trend may develop to cluster multiple users between LEOand the vicinib/ of the on a single platform. The large platform Moon. The third domain is the Moon _-h_gDw i_-ThYs_dr-E_ng _on[ais_bout a itself. Lunar activities are to include dozen separate antennas, each of which both orbiting and landing missions; the can be aimed at a different user. To be landings may be either unmanned or cost-effective, such large platforms must manned. The last domain is Mars. be able to be serviced and repaired. For Missions to Mars will initially be Service and repair, either the entire platform unmanned but they will eventually be must be returned to the space station by manned. orbital transfer vehicle or astronauts must trave! to geosynchronous orbit for onsite maintenance. (3)Spartan Lunar Base Theearly lunar base may consist of several modules similar to habitation and laboratory modules for the space station, which can be transPorted to the lunar surface and covered with lunar regolith for radiation protection. In some scenarios, the early lunar base would be totally dependent on transport from Earth for all supplies and cignsumabtes. In other scenarios, a small plant would be emplaced, which would allow the production of oxygen for life support. = (4) Closeup of the Surface of Mars From the Unmanned Viking Lander While Viking provided spectacular pictures qf _e surface of Mars and some chemistry data for the two tander sites, an indepth understanding of martian samples and the detailed data necessary to describe the evolution of Mars (age dating, mineralogy, possible fossils) can be gained only from actual samples of rocks and soil returned to Earth for detailed analysis using sophisticated laboratory instruments. BLACK AND WH!TE rr,',,'OTO,_,_r':_,Pi._l__ . American Station at the South Pole The station consists of several buildings within a large-diameter (approximately lO0-meter) geodesic dome. The buildings include laboratories, service areas, and habitation modules. This station is probably the closest thing we have to a base on another planet• The South Pole station is continuously occupied, but crewmembers arrive or depart only during the summer season. While the occupants can venture outside with protective clothing ("space suits",} during the winter, they are mostly dependent on the shelter provided by the geodesic dome and the buildings within the dome, much as they would be at a Moon or Mars base. Most of the suppfies must be brought in by air, but some use is made of local resources. Local ice is used for water, and, of course, local oxygen is used for breathing and as an oxidizer for combustion, including operation of internal combustion engines. Photo: Michael E. Zolensky Program Elements and platform and later a manned Descriptions "shack" to support and maintain the GEO facilities. The first domain shown in figure 1 The third domain (the Moon) (LEO) emphasizes the space station consists of the establishment of a and includes the recommended temporarily manned science and program of the Solar System research camp, similar to an Exploration Committee (SSEC), Antarctic outpost. The lunar base Earth observation satellites, would be totally dependent on manufacturing in low Earth orbit, Earth-supplied consumables and and other commercial ventures transportation. The fourth domain such as tourism. The second (Mars) includes an unmanned domain (GEO) emphasizes sample return mission. commercial activities in geosynchronous orbit-mostly Folding these [our domains into a communication satellites or baseline program in accordance platforms. Other GEO facilities with the above assumptions results would include an experimental in the plan depicted in figure 2. 5 Critiques of the NASA oxygen for transportation and Baseline mass for shielding are available there, and the Moon has many The workshop participants offered other advantages to science and some critiquesof the baseline plan, human presence that asteroids which are documented inthis may be lacking. subsection in order to use them in Resolution: Seriously consider the next section on alternative asteroids as aviable source of scenarios. resources in conjunction with other potential sources. 1. Critique: Devote more emphasis to asteroids as a source of . Critique: The baseline program nonterrestrial resources. demonstrates alack of vision which is a result of conservative Rebuttal: Resources on the budget requests (or vice versa). Moon may be more limited than those of asteroids; however, the Rebuttal: NASA is aggressive in high leverage items such as its budget submittals and is Date 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 "--" _ I,,,,I , ,J, t, ,I I, 1991 1996 1999 2_8 2012 2016 2022 2031 1997 2014 2024 1998 Sitesurvey Manned Camp Mars Marssample return (rover) landings Figure 2 1 t Baseline Scenario : ,T ff NASA continues its business as usual Mapper " without a major increase in its budget and Moon (orbit) ,_ Explorer Camp without using nonterrestria/ resources $- as itexpands into space, this is the development that might be expected in the next 25 to 50 years. The plan shows Experimental an orderly progression in manned missions platform Outpost GEO from the initial space station in low Earth orbit (LEO) expected in the 1990s, through 7 an outpost and an eventual space station in geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO) Space -" (from 2004 to 2012), to a small lunar base in station 1 : 2016, and eventually to a Mars landing in LEO 2024. Unmanned precursor missions would include an experiment platform in _ Growth GEO, lunar mapping and exploration by : " space station - ., ,, robot, a Mars sample return, and an : -ill i_ automated site survey on Mars. This plan Earth i l I ": I _ I can be used as a baseline scenario Shuttle-based Manned orbital Shuttle-derived against which other, more ambitious plans orbital transfer transfer vehicle launch vehicle can be compared. vehicle demonstrably second only to . Critique: The NASA baseline the Department of Defense plan should be compressed in (DOD) inbudget growth. time to allow an earlier start on However, the fact remains that some selected programs. policy guidelines established by the Administration and Rebuttal: An unlimited budget Congress do not permit much cannot resolve all problems more than the proposed involving the factor of time. baseline. Technology developments require significant time for Resolution: A small portion of resolution even when the planning exercise should adequately funded. In addition, not constrain itself within the technology developed for budget limitations but direct each new program feeds on or its attention to truly visionary evolves from the technology space objectives in order to have developed for a precursor an impact on our near-term program. technology developments and thereby contribute constructively Resolution: Identify key to future budget drafts. NASA technologies for early needs to make a better effort development and, where to "sell" its proposed programs possible and practical, to Congress and to the public. compress schedules. 7