NAIRAS Model Predictions and the ARMAS Measurement Program

22 Pages·2015·1.88 MB·English

Real-Time Atmospheric Radiation Exposure:
NAIRAS Model Predictions and the ARMAS
Measurement Program
Christopher J. Mertens
NASA Langley Research Center
Hampton, VA
Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing
Radiation for Aviation Safety
• Chris Mertens (PI), NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA
– Cosmic ray transport; integration of NAIRAS models and data; V&V
• Kent Tobiska (Co-I; ARMAS PI), Space Environment Technologies, Inc, Pacific Palisades, CA
― Distributed data nerve center and conduit for input data – models – output data
• Brian Kress (Co-I), Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH
― Real-time magnetospheric transport / geomagnetic shielding model
• Mike Wiltberger and Stan Solomon (Co-I), NCAR/HAO, Boulder, CO
― Benchmark MHD magnetospheric magnetic fields
• Brad Gersey (ARMAS Co-I), CRESSE, Prairie View A& M, Prairie View, TX
― Radiation measurements and instrumentation
• Joe Kunches (Collaborator), NOAA/Space Environment Center, Boulder, CO
― Guidance on research-to-operations; interaction with commercial aviation industry
• Barbara Grajewski (Collaborator), CDC/NIOSH, Cincinnati, OH
― Aircraft radiation measurement data for V&V; epidemiological studies
• Steve Blattnig (Collaborator), NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA
― Cosmic ray nuclear interactions; transport physics
• Bill Atwell (ARMAS Collaborator), Boeing, Houston, TX
― Radiation measurement data analysis
• Xiaojing Xu (Collaborator), SSAI, Hampton, VA
― Scientific programming and data visualization tools
• Ryan Norman (Post-Doc Fellow), NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA
― Cosmic ray nuclear interactions; transport physics
Outline
• Motivation
• NAIRAS Model Description and Results
• NAIRAS Real-Time Products
• NAIRAS V&V Roadmap and ARMAS Program
• Wrap-Up Discussion
Cosmic Ray Interactions
Ways to damage DNA
GCR Exposure

EU Action Level
ICRP Public/Prenatal
Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS)
Earth System Models
Predictions/Forecasts Decision Support Value & Benefits
Systems, Assessments, to Society
Management Actions
Radiation Dose Rates:
Improvements in the decision-

AIR (parametric) making, decisions, and actions
Ionizing Radiation
HZETRN (physics-based) Nowcast NAIRAS decision support tool First-ever, data-driven, real-time
for NOAA/SWPC space prediction of biologically harmful
4-D Effective Dose weather forecasts, warnings, radiation exposure levels at
Near-Earth Space Environment 4-D Ambient Dose Equiv. and advisories airline altitudes
•Badhwar/O’Neill GCR Model 4-D Differential Flux NAIRAS available at public Quantitative and qualitative
website benefits from the improved
•Empirical Cutoff Rigidity decisions

( IGRF+TS05) NAIRAS Distributed Comprehensive database of
•Physics-based Cutoff Rigidity Network System Specific analyses to support radiation exposure rates to
the decision making formulate recommended annual
(LFM/CMIT+SEP-trajectory) High-Performance and career limits to ionizing
Computer Systems Predict real-time radiation radiation exposure
exposure at airline altitudes
Server Interface (includes background GCR Comprehensive database of
Operational and Archival and SEP events) radiation exposure rates for
Earth Observations airlines to assess cost/risk of
Provide accumulated radiation
Databases polar routes
exposures for representative
set of domestic, international, Real-time prediction of
Near-Earth Space Environment
Differential Particle Flux and polar routes radiation exposure levels to
NASA/ACE enable optimal balance
HZE Particles (A=5-56)
between airline cost and air
NASA/HEAO-3
Specific Decisions / Actions
Light-Ions (A=1-4) traveler health risk during
NOAA/GOES
Limit aircrew flight hours to solar storm (SEP) events
Neutrons
within recommended annual
Improve understanding of
Pions and Muons and career limits
Assimilated Atmospheric biological effects of
Electromagnetic Alter route and/or altitude atmospheric ionizing radiation
Atmospheric Depth (NCEP/GFS) Cascasde Particles during SEP events
on aircrew and passengers
through collaboration of
Ground-Based epidemiological studies by
Observations, Parameters & NIOSH
Neutron Count Monitors
Products
Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) Model
NOAA/GOES +NASA/ACE Data Cutoff Rigidity (IGRF)
Real-time Neutron
Monitor Data
(e.g., IZMIRAN and
LOMNICKY)

Fit to Climax HP
Spectral Fitting
Magnetospheric
Magnetic Field
NASA/ACE Solar
(e.g., T05)
Wind and IMF Data
Effects on
Cutoff Rigidity
Badhwar+O’Neill GCR Model
HZETRN
+
Dosimetry
Atmospheric Density
Atmospheric Dose
and Dose Equivalent
NCEP/GFS
Halloween 2003 Storm
March 9 2011 SEP Event