Mycle Schneider antony Froggatt julie hazemann tadahiro Katsuta MV ramana Steve thomas ...

202 Pages·2015·16.09 MB·English

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StatuS rePort 2015
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Mycle Schneider
By
antony Froggatt
julie hazemann
With
tadahiro Katsuta
M.V. ramana
Steve thomas
jonathon Porritt
ForeWord
V4
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The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2015
By
Mycle Schneider
Independent Consultant, Paris, France
Project Coordinator and Lead Author
Antony Froggatt
Independent Consultant, London, U.K.
Lead Author
With
Julie Hazemann
Director of EnerWebWatch, Paris, France
Documentary Research, Modeling and Graphic Design
Tadahiro Katsuta
Associate Professor, School of Law, Meiji University, Tokyo, Japan
Contributing Author
M.V. Ramana
Nuclear Futures Laboratory & Program on Science and Global Security
Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, U.S.

Contributing Author
Steve Thomas
Professor for Energy Policy, Greenwich University, U.K.
Contributing Author
Jonathon Porritt
Foreword by
Paris, London, July 2015
© A Mycle Schneider Consulting Project
Cover page and layout created by Noëlle Papay
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The project coordinator wishes to thank Antony Froggatt and Steve Thomas for their creativity and
unbeatable reliability in their numerous contributions over many years. Thanks also to the new
contributing authors Tadahiro Katsuta and M.V. Ramana who managed to author pertinent sections,
limited in size, on issues that would each have justified a book.
A special thank you to Jonathon Porritt for his thoughtful and engaged foreword.
A big chunk of the success of this project is due to its visibility through the graphic illustrations based
on the project database designed and maintained by data engineer Julie Hazemann. Nina Schneider
extended meticulous verification to background research that contributed a fair share to the result.
Thank you both.
Many other people have contributed pieces of work to make this project possible and bring it to the
current standard. These include in particular Caroline Peachey, who provided the Nuclear Engineering
International nuclear load factor statistics, Shaun Burnie, who contributed invaluable research, Benoît
Rozel, who provided terrific support on data management, and Victoria Tardieu, who gave this crucial
hint on software interaction.
The report has greatly benefitted from partial or full proof-reading, editing suggestions and comments
by Amory B. Lovins, Marianne Böller, Shaun Burnie, Tom Clements, Ian Fairlie, Tomas Kaberger, Yves
Marignac, Nina Schneider, Sabine von Stockar. and various anonymous reviewers.
Thank you all.
The authors wish to thank in particular Amory B. Lovins, Matthew McKinzie and Rebecca Harms for
their durable and enthusiastic support for this project.
And everybody involved is grateful to Natural Resources Defense Council, Heinrich Böll Foundation
North America, the Greens-EFA Group in the European Parliament, and the Swiss Renewable Energy
Foundation for their generous support for this project.
A big thank-you to Philippe Rivière for his reliable work on the website and his generous assistance at
any time of the day (or night) as well as to Noëlle Papay who created the special cover page and the
new layout for this report.
NOTE
This report contains a very large amount of factual and numerical data. While we do our utmost to
verify and double-check, nobody is perfect. The authors are always grateful for corrections and
suggested improvements.
LEAD AUTHORS’ CONTACT INFORMATION
Mycle Schneider Antony Froggatt
45, allée des deux cèdres 53a Nevill Road
91210 Draveil (Paris) London N16 8SW
France United Kingdom
Phone: [phone] Ph: [phone]
Email: [email protected] E: [email protected]
The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2015
© 2015 Mycle Schneider Consulting (MSC)
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Foreword .............................................................................................................................................. 9
Executive Summary and Conclusions ....................................................................................... 12

Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 19

General Overview Worldwide ..................................................................................................... 23

Introduction ...................................................................................................................................................................... 23
Overview—The Role of Nuclear Power ................................................................................................................ 23
Operation, Power Generation, Age Distribution ............................................................................................... 26
Construction Times ......................................................................................................................... 32
Overview of Current New Build ............................................................................................................................... 30
Currently UnderConstruction

CurrentlyOperating
Construction Times of Reactors .................................................................. 32
Construction Starts and Cancellations ..................................................................................... 34
Construction Times of Past and Reactors .................................................................. 33
Operating Age ................................................................................................................................... 36

Lifetime Projections ....................................................................................................................... 40

Potential Newcomer Countries ................................................................................................... 42

Under Construction ........................................................................................................................................................ 43
Contracts Signed .............................................................................................................................................................. 46
Generation III Reactors—Why the Delays and Cost Overruns? ....................................... 55
Plans and Projects .......................................................................................................................................................... 48

Introduction ...................................................................................................................................................................... 55
What is Generation III+? .............................................................................................................................................. 56
Standardization and Generic Design Reviews .................................................................................................... 58
Causes of construction delays ................................................................................................................................... 58
Experience at Construction Sites ............................................................................................................................. 60
Comparison of the EPR and AP1000 ...................................................................................................................... 64
Advanced Nuclear Reactors—The Story of the SMR ............................................................... 68
Conclusions ....................................................................................................................................................................... 64

History ................................................................................................................................................................................. 68
United States ..................................................................................................................................................................... 69
Russia ................................................................................................................................................................................... 72
South Korea ....................................................................................................................................................................... 73
China ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 74
India ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 75
Argentina ............................................................................................................................................................................ 76
Fukushima—A Status Report ...................................................................................................... 78
Conclusion .......................................................................................................................................................................... 76

Onsite challenges ............................................................................................................................................................ 78
Offsite challenges ............................................................................................................................................................ 84
Cost of the Fukushima Accident ............................................................................................................................... 87
Mycle Schneider, Antony Froggatt et al. World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2015
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Nuclear Power vs. Renewable Energy Deployment ............................................................. 89

Introduction ...................................................................................................................................................................... 89
Investment ......................................................................................................................................................................... 91
Installed Capacity ........................................................................................................................................................... 92
Electricity Generation ................................................................................................................................................... 93
Status and Trends in China, the European Union, India, and the United States .................................. 95
Annexes ......................................................................................................................................... 101
Annex 1: Overview by Region and Country ......................................................................... 102

Africa ................................................................................................................................................................................. 102
The Americas ................................................................................................................................................................. 103
United States Focus ..................................................................................................................................................... 107
Asia ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 113
China Focus .................................................................................................................................................................... 113
Japan Focus ..................................................................................................................................................................... 120
European Union (EU28) and Switzerland ......................................................................................................... 137
France Focus .................................................................................................................................................................. 144
Annex 2: Japanese Nuclear Reactor Status .......................................................................... 170
Former Soviet Union .................................................................................................................................................. 164
Annex 3: Various Indicators of the Fukushima Daiichi Units 1 to 3 ............................ 174

Annex 4: Fukushima—Radioactive Contamination and Evacuation Zones .............. 176

Annex 5: Definition of Credit Rating by the Main Agencies ............................................ 177

Annex 6: Status of Lifetime Extensions in the U.S. ............................................................. 178

Annex 7: Chinese Nuclear Reactor Status ............................................................................. 181

Annex 8: About the Authors ...................................................................................................... 184

Annex 9: Abbreviations .............................................................................................................. 186

Annex 10: Status of Nuclear Power in the World ............................................................... 194

Annex 11: Nuclear Reactors in the World“Under Construction” .................................. 196

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TABLE OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Nuclear Electricity Generation in the World ...................................................................................... 23
Figure 2: Annual Nuclear Power Generation by Country and Historic Maximum ................................ 24
Figure 3: Annual Nuclear Share in Electricity Mix by Country and Historic Maximum ............................. 25
Figure 4: Nuclear Power Reactor Grid Connections and Shutdowns, 1954-2015 ................................ 27
Figure 5: Rise and Fall of the Japanese Nuclear Program 1963–2014 ....................................................... 28
Figure 6: World Nuclear Reactor Fleet, 1954–2015 .......................................................................................... 29
Figure 7: Nuclear Reactors Under Construction .................................................................................................. 32
Figure 8: Average Annual Construction Times in the World 1954–July 2015 ....................................... 33
Figure 9: Construction Starts in the World 1951 – 1 July 2015 .................................................................... 35
Figure 10: Cancelled or Suspended Reactor Constructions 1977 – 2015 ................................................... 35
Figure 11: Age Distribution of Operating Nuclear Power Reactors ............................................................... 37
Figure 12: Age Distribution of Operating and LTO Reactors in the World ................................................. 37
Figure 13: Age Distribution of 162 Shut Down Nuclear Power Reactors ................................................... 39
Figure 14: Average Age Profile of Shut Down Nuclear Power Reactors ...................................................... 39
Figure 15: The 40-Year Lifetime Projection (not including LTOs) ................................................................ 41
Figure 16: The PLEX Projection (not including LTOs) ........................................................................................ 41
Figure 17: Forty-Year Lifetime Projection versus PLEX Projection .............................................................. 42
Figure 18: Fukushima Units 1 – 4 in March 2011 and in November 2014 ................................................. 79
Figure 19: Global Investment Decisions in Renewables and Nuclear Power 2004–14 ........................ 92
Figure 20: Wind, Solar and Nuclear, Capacity Increases in the World 2000–2014 ................................ 93
Figure 21: Variations in Global Electricity Production from Wind, Solar and Nuclear ......................... 94
Figure 22: Installed Capacity in China from Wind, Solar and Nuclear 2000–2004 ................................ 95
Figure 23: Electricity Production in China from Wind, Solar and Nuclear 2000–2014 ........................ 96
Figure 24: Variations in EU Electricity Production from Wind, Solar and Nuclear ................................ 97
Figure 25: Startup and Shutdown of Electricity Generating Capacity in the EU in 2014 ..................... 98
Figure 26: Solar, Wind and Nuclear Production in India (TWh) ..................................................................... 99
Figure 27: Age of U.S. Nuclear Fleet .......................................................................................................................... 108
Figure 28: Age of Chinese Reactor Fleet ................................................................................................................. 114
Figure 29: Age Distribution of Japanese Reactor Fleet Currently in LTO ................................................ 129
Figure 30: Nuclear Reactors Startups and Shutdowns in the EU28, 1956–2015 ................................. 137
Figure 31: Nuclear Reactors and Net Operating Capacity in the EU28, 1956–2015 ........................... 137
Figure 32: Age Pyramid of the 128 Nuclear Reactors Operated in the EU28 ......................................... 138
Figure 33: Age Distribution of the EU28 Reactor Fleet .................................................................................... 138
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Figure 34: Age Distribution of French Nuclear Fleet (by Decade) .............................................................. 144
Figure 35: Age Distribution of Russian Reactor Fleet ....................................................................................... 166
Figure 36: Fukushima: Schematic View and Various Indicators of Units 1 to 3 .................................. 174
Figure 37: Fukushima: Radioactive Contamination and Current Evacuation Zones .......................... 176
TABLE OF TABLES
Table 1: Nuclear Reactors “Under Construction” (as of 1 July 2015) ......................................................... 31

Table 2: Reactor Construction Times 2005–2015 .............................................................................................. 34
Table 3:Summary of Status of Generation III+ Construction Projects ...................................................... 66
Table 4: Spent Fuel Storage in Reactor Pools and Dry Cask Storage Facility .......................................... 80
Table 5: Spent Fuel Storage Away From Reactor (Pool and Temporary Dry Storage) ....................... 80
Table 6: Japanese Reactors Officially Closed ...................................................................................................... 128
Table 7: Closure Dates for Belgian Nuclear Reactors 2015–2025 ............................................................ 140
Table 8: Legal Closure Dates for German Nuclear Reactors 2011-2022 ................................................ 149
Table 9: Japanese Nuclear Reactor Status (as of 1 July 2015) .................................................................... 170
Table 10: Definition of Credit Rating by the Main Agencies .......................................................................... 177
in Operation under Construction
Table 11: Applications for Lifetime Extensions of U.S. Nuclear Power Plants ....................................... 178
Table 12: Chinese Nuclear Power Plants and .................................... 181
Table 13: Status of Nuclear Power in the World (as of 1 July 2015) .......................................................... 194
Table 14: Nuclear Reactors in the World "Under Construction" (as of 1 July 2015) .......................... 196
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Foreword
By Jonathon Porritt1
There’s been no diminution in the intensity of the debate about the role of nuclear power in
tomorrow’s low-carbon world. Indeed, it seems to become more intense by the day. Articles of
World Nuclear Industry Status Report
historical faith seem to matter much more to protagonists on both sides of that debate than
(WNISR)
strictly dispassionate analysis. And that’s precisely why the
plays such a critical role in informing both experts and lay people, updating a
longitudinal dataset with scrupulous care and attention to detail every year.
As we know, however, people read the same data in very different ways, leading to very different
conclusions. So I can only give you mine, without any attempt at spurious neutrality! And my
headline conclusion is a simple one: the impressively resilient hopes that many people still have
of a global nuclear renaissance are being trumped by a real-time revolution in efficiency-plus-
pace of change
renewables-plus-storage, delivering more and more solutions on the ground every year.
One of the least understood aspects of today’s nuclear debate is : just how fast is
R&D converting into prototype and early-investment prospects; just how fast is innovation of that
kind converting into near-commercial or fully-commercial projects; and just how fast are those
projects converting into scalable roll-out programmes with substantive measurable outcomes.
Every year that passes reveals a widening gap between what is happening with the nuclear
industry (forensically laid bare by successive Status Reports) and how so-called alternatives
become a new paradigm (based on efficiency, renewables, energy storage and distribution), as
portrayed by a wide range of commentators in the energy debate – from the International Energy
Agency and mainstream investment banks through to entrepreneurs and NGOs. It’s an
extraordinary story that emerges from this analytical approach to the relative pace of change in
both competing paradigms.
Simply by presenting year-on-year data as to the operational status of nuclear power
programmes all around the world, WNISR remorselessly lays bare the gap between the promise
of innovation in the nuclear industry and its delivered results.
For instance, back in the 1990s, there was huge enthusiasm for a potential “nuclear renaissance”
through what were called Generation III reactors – designed to address the huge problems then
confronting the industry in terms of safety, cost and construction complexity. These promises
(which were themselves reminiscent of some of the earliest claims made on behalf of nuclear
power back in the 1950s and 1960s) were instrumental in persuading both George Bush and
Tony Blair in recommitting to nuclear power programmes in the USA and UK respectively.
Twenty years on, not one of the Generation III reactor designs is yet in service. And the kind of
reduced costs that were being talked about at that time have been proved entirely illusory: by
2013, the projected costs of Generation III designs had increased eightfold. As the WNISR authors
put it: “By May 2015, there were 18 reactors of designs claimed to meet Generation III+ criteria
under construction. Only two were still on time, and the rest were two to nine years late. So on
1
Jonathon Porritt is Co-Founder and Trustee of Forum for the Future and former Chairman of the
U.K. Sustainable Development Commission.
Mycle Schneider, Antony Froggatt et al. World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2015
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