Multi-Ethnic Coalitions in Africa: Business Financing of Opposition Election Campaigns

323 Pages·2012·3.26 MB·English

by  Leonardo R. Arriola

Multiethnic Coalitions in Africa
Business Financing of Opposition Election Campaigns
Why are politicians able to form electoral coalitions that bridge e thnic
divisions in some countries and not others? This book answers this
question by presenting a theory of pecuniary coalition building in
multiethnic countries governed through patronage. Focusing on Sub-
Saharan Africa, the book explains how the relative autonomy of busi-
ness from state-controlled capital affects political bargaining among
opposition politicians in particular. While incumbents form coalitions
by using state resources to secure cross-ethnic endorsements, opposi-
tion politicians must rely on the private resources of business to do
the same. This book combines cross-national analyses of African coun-
tries with in-depth case studies of Cameroon and Kenya to show that
incumbents actively manipulate i nancial controls to prevent business
from supporting their opposition. It demonstrates that opposition poli-
ticians are more likely to coalesce across ethnic cleavages once incum-
bents have lost their ability to blackmail the business sector through
i nancial reprisals.
Leonardo R. Arriola is Assistant Professor of Political Science at the
University of California, Berkeley. He is the Vice Chair of the African
Politics Conference Group, a research network afi liated with the
American Political Science Association, for 2011–2013. He has received
grants and fellowships from the National Science Foundation; the
Kellogg Institute for International Studies at Notre Dame; the Center
for Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law at Stanford; the
Fulbright Program; and the U.S. Department of Education. His work
has appeared in journals such as C omparative Politics and C omparative
Political Studies. He received the African Politics Conference Group’s
award for best article published on African politics in 2009.
To my mother, Silvia, and my grandmother, Josei na,
and to the memory of my father, Leonardo,
and my grandmother, Florinda.
Cambridge Studies in Comparative Politics
General Editor
Margaret L evi University of Washington, Seattle
Assistant General Editors
Kathleen T helen M assachusetts Institute of Technology
Erik Wibbels D uke University
Associate Editors
Robert H. Bates H arvard University
Stephen Hanson T he College of William and Mary
Torben I versen H arvard University
Stathis K alyvas Yale University
Peter L ange D uke University
Helen Milner Princeton University
Frances Rosenbluth Y ale University
Susan Stokes Yale University
Sidney Tarrow C ornell University
Other Books in the Series
Ben W. Ansell , From the Ballot to the Blackboard: The Redistributive Political
Economy of Education
David Austen-Smith , Jeffry A. F rieden , Miriam A. G olden , Karl Ove Moene ,
and A dam Przeworski, eds., Selected Works of Michael Wallerstein: The
Political Economy of Inequality, Unions, and Social Democracy
Andy Baker, T he Market and the Masses in Latin America: Policy Reform and
Consumption in Liberalizing Economies
Lisa Baldez , Why Women Protest: Women’s Movements in Chile
Stefano B artolini , The Political Mobilization of the European Left, 1860–1980:
The Class Cleavage
Robert B ates , When Things Fell Apart: State Failure in Late-Century Africa
Mark Beissinger , N ationalist Mobilization and the Collapse of the Soviet State
Nancy Bermeo , ed., Unemployment in the New Europe
Carles Boix , Democracy and Redistribution
Carles B oix , Political Parties, Growth, and Equality: Conservative and Social
Democratic Economic Strategies in the World Economy
(continued after index)

Multiethnic Coalitions in Africa
Business Financing of Opposition
Election Campaigns
LEONARDO R. A RRIOLA
University of California, Berkeley
cambridge university press
Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town,
Singapore, S ão Paulo, Delhi, Mexico City
Cambridge University Press
32 Avenue of the Americas, N ew York, NY 10013-2473, USA
www.cambridge.org
Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/ 9781107605435
© Leonardo R. Arriola 2013
This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception
and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements,
no reproduction of any part may take place without the written
permission of Cambridge University Press.
First published 2 013
Printed in the United States of America
A catalog record for this publication is available from the British Library.
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication data
Arriola, Leonardo R. (Leonardo Rafael)
Multiethnic coalitions in Africa : business i nancing of opposition
election campaigns / Leonardo R. Arriola.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 9 78-1-107-02111-2 (hardback) – ISBN 9 78-1-107-60543-5 (pbk.)
1. Opposition (Political science) – Africa, Sub-Saharan. 2. Electoral c oalitions – Africa,
Sub-Saharan. 3. Campaign funds – Africa, Sub-Saharan. 4. A frica, Sub-Saharan –
Ethnic relations – Political aspects. 5. Africa, S ub-Saharan – Politics and government –
1960– 6. Kenya – Politics and g overnment. 7. Cameroon – Politics and
government. I. Title.
JQ1879.A5A77 2012
324.70967-dc23 2012008619
ISBN 9 78-1-107-02111-2 Hardback
ISBN 978-1-107-60543-5 Paperback
Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URLs
for external or third-party Internet Web sites referred to in this publication and does not
guarantee that any content on such Web sites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate.
Contents
List of Figures page viii
List of Tables x
Preface and Acknowledgments xi
List of Abbreviations xv
1 The Puzzle of Opposition Coordination 1
2 A Theory of Pecuniary Coalition Formation 27
3 The Emergence of Financial Reprisal Regimes 4 7
4 The Political Control of Banking 68
5 The Liberalization of Capital 101
6 The Political Alignment of Business 138
7 Opposition Bargaining across Ethnic Cleavages 1 78
8 Multiethnic Opposition Coalitions in African Elections 2 09
9 Democratic Consolidation in Africa 235
Appendix A Commercial Banking Sector Size and Multiethnic
Opposition Coalitions in Africa 251
Appendix B Sources on Commodity Exports and Ethnic
Production by Country 254
Appendix C Variables: Dei nitions, Sources, and Summary Statistics 256
Appendix D Multiethnic Opposition Coalitions in Africa, 1990–2005 261
References 269
Index 301
vii
Figures
1.1 Alternation in Presidential Elections across Regions,
1985–2005 page 7
1.2 Cross-National Variation in Opposition Coalition Formation,
1990–2005 9
2.1 A Causal Model of Multiethnic Coalition Formation 3 7
2.2 Access to Commercial Banking and Opposition Behavior 3 8
2.3 The Cases Compared: Cameroon and Kenya 4 1
4.1 Average Number of Commercial Banks in 27 African
Countries, 1945–2000 71
4.2 Average Number of Commercial Banks by Leader’s
Constituency Type 80
4.3 Average Number of Commercial Banks in Former
British Colonies 82
4.4 Average Number of Commercial Banks in Former
French Colonies 82
4.5 Average Percentage of Commercial Banks with State-Owned
Shares in 1985 8 5
4.6 Average State-Owned Share in Largest Commercial
Bank in 1985 8 5
4.7 Commercial Banking Sector Size in Cameroon and Kenya 9 3
5.1 Average Private Credit Provision by Founding Leader’s
Constituency Type 1 10
5.2 Predicted Probability of Structural Adjustment Compliance by
Resource Type 116
5.3 Private Credit Provision in Cameroon and Kenya 120
5.4 State-Owned Shares in Cameroon’s Commercial Banking Sector 123
5.5 Oil Rents and French Bilateral Aid in Cameroon 125
viii
List of Figures ix
5.6 State-Owned Shares in Kenya’s Commercial Banking Sector 129
5.7 IMF Disbursement and Bilateral Aid to Kenya, 1985–2000 130
6.1 Average Tenure of Chamber of Commerce President, 1970–2005 1 47
6.2 Annual Turnover by Type of Chamber of Commerce 1 48
6.3 Capital Liberalization in Cameroon and Kenya 1 55
7.1 Total Harambee Donations by Kenyan Opposition Parties,
2000–2002 2 02
7.2 Distribution of Harambee Donations by Kenyan Opposition
Parties, 2000–2002 2 02
8.1 Opposition Coalitions in Contested Executive Elections,
1990–2005 2 12
8.2 Determinants of Opposition Coalition Formation 224
8.3 Predicted Probability of Opposition Coalition and Commercial
Banking Access 225
8.4 Predicted Probability of Opposition Coalition and Private
Credit Provision 228
8.5 Predicted Probability of Opposition Coalition and GDP Growth 2 30
9.1 Opposition Outcomes and Business Payoffs 2 43
9.2 The Quality of Democracy without Alternation 2 49