Multi-Agent-Based Simulation IX: International Workshop, MABS 2008, Estoril, Portugal, May 12-13, 2008, Revised Selected Papers PDF
Preview Multi-Agent-Based Simulation IX: International Workshop, MABS 2008, Estoril, Portugal, May 12-13, 2008, Revised Selected Papers
Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence 5269 EditedbyR.Goebel,J.Siekmann,andW.Wahlster Subseries of Lecture Notes in Computer Science Nuno David Jaime Simão Sichman (Eds.) Multi-Agent-Based Simulation IX International Workshop, MABS 2008 Estoril, Portugal, May 12-13, 2008 Revised Selected Papers 1 3 SeriesEditors RandyGoebel,UniversityofAlberta,Edmonton,Canada JörgSiekmann,UniversityofSaarland,Saarbrücken,Germany WolfgangWahlster,DFKIandUniversityofSaarland,Saarbrücken,Germany VolumeEditors NunoDavid ISCTE-LisbonUniversityInstitute Av.dasForçasArmadas 1649-026Lisboa,Portugal E-mail:[email protected] JaimeSimãoSichman UniversityofSãoPaulo ComputerEngineeringDepartment Av.Prof.LucianoGualberto,tv.3,158 05508-970SãoPauloSPBrazil E-mail:[email protected] LibraryofCongressControlNumber:Appliedfor CRSubjectClassification(1998):I.2,I.2.11,J.4,K.4 LNCSSublibrary:SL7–ArtificialIntelligence ISSN 0302-9743 ISBN-10 3-642-01990-0SpringerBerlinHeidelbergNewYork ISBN-13 978-3-642-01990-6SpringerBerlinHeidelbergNewYork Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.Allrightsarereserved,whetherthewholeorpartofthematerialis concerned,specificallytherightsoftranslation,reprinting,re-useofillustrations,recitation,broadcasting, reproductiononmicrofilmsorinanyotherway,andstorageindatabanks.Duplicationofthispublication orpartsthereofispermittedonlyundertheprovisionsoftheGermanCopyrightLawofSeptember9,1965, initscurrentversion,andpermissionforusemustalwaysbeobtainedfromSpringer.Violationsareliable toprosecutionundertheGermanCopyrightLaw. springer.com ©Springer-VerlagBerlinHeidelberg2009 PrintedinGermany Typesetting:Camera-readybyauthor,dataconversionbyScientificPublishingServices,Chennai,India Printedonacid-freepaper SPIN:12675531 06/3180 543210 Preface Themeetingofresearchersfrommulti-agentsystemsengineeringandthesocial/ economic/organizational sciences plays a vital role in the cross-fertilization of ideas,andisundoubtedlyanimportantsourceofinspirationforthebodyofknowl- edgethatisbeing producedinthe multi-agentfield.TheMABSseriescontinues to pursue its goalof bringing together researchersinterested in multi-agent sys- tems with those focused on modelling complex social systems, in such areas as economics,management,andorganizationalandsocialsciencesingeneral. This volume is the ninth of its series. It is based on papers accepted for the 9th International Workshop on Multi-agent-Based Simulation (MABS 2008), co-located with the 7th International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (AAMAS 2008), which was held in Estoril, Portugal, May12–16,2008.Allthepaperspresentedattheworkshophavebeenextended, revisedandreviewedagaininordertobepartofthisvolume.Thesuccessofthis field is reflected in the outstanding number of submissions that we received at thattime.Forty-foursubmissionsfrom14countrieswerereceived,fromwhichwe selected 16 for presentation (near 35% acceptance). We are very grateful to the participantswhoprovidedalivelyatmosphereofdebateduringthepresentation ofthepapersandduringthegeneraldiscussiononthechallengesthattheMABS field faces. We are also very grateful to all the members of the Program Committee and the additional reviewers for their hard work. Thanks are also due to Juan A. Rodriguez-Aguilar (AAMAS 2008 Workshop Chair), to Simon Parsons and Joerg P. Mueller (AAMAS 2008 General Chairs), to Lin Padgham and David Parkes (AAMAS 2008 Program Chairs) and to Ana Paiva and Luis Antunes (AAMAS 2005 Local Organization Chairs). March 2009 Nuno David Jaime Sichman Organization General and Program Chairs Nuno David Lisbon University Institute-ISCTE, Portugal Jaime Sima˜o Sichman University of Sa˜o Paulo, Brazil Program Committee Adolfo Lo´pez Paredes INSISOC, Valladolid, Spain Akira Namatame National Defense Academy, Japan Alexis Drogoul IRD, MSI Research Team, Vietnam Ana Bazzan Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil Carles Sierra IIIA, Spain Ces´areo Herna´ndez Iglesias INSISOC, Valladolid, Spain Claudio Cioffi-Revilla George Mason University, USA Cristiano Castelfranchi ISTC/CNR, Italy David Hales University of Bologna, Italy David Sallach Argonne National Lab and University of Chicago, USA Diana Adamatti University of Sa˜o Paulo, Brazil Elizabeth Sklar City University of New York, USA Emma Norling Manchester Metropolitan University, UK Ernesto Costa University of Coimbra, Portugal Fr´eed´eric Amblard University of Toulouse, France H. Van Parunak NewVectors LLC, USA Harko Verhagen Stockholm University, Sweden Helder Coelho Lisbon University, Portugal Jaime Sichman UniversityofSa˜o Paulo,Brazil(PC Co-chair) Jan Treur Vrije Universiteit in Amsterdam, The Netherlands Joa˜o Balsa Universidade de Lisboa, Portugal Jorge Louc¸˜a ISCTE, Portugal Juan PavonMestras Universidad Complutense Madrid, Spain Juliette Rouchier Greqam/CNRS, France Keith Sawyer Washington University in St. Louis, USA Keiki Takadama University of Electro-Communications,Japan Klaus Troitzsch University of Koblenz, Germany Liz Sonenberg University of Melbourne, Australia Luis Antunes University of Lisbon, Portugal VIII Organization Marco Janssen Indiana University, USA Maria Marietto Universidade Federal do ABC, Brazil Mario Paolucci IP/CNR Rome, Italy Nick Gotts Macaulay Institute, UK Nigel Gilbert University of Surrey, UK Nuno David Lisbon University Institute, ISCTE, Portugal (PC Co-chair) Oswaldo Teran University of Los Andes, Venezuela Paul Davidsson Blekinge Institute of Technology, Sweden Paulo Novais Universidade do Minho, Portugal Rainer Hegselmann University of Bayreuth, Germany Robert Axtell George Mason University, USA Rosaria Conte ISTC/CNR Rome, Italy Satoshi Kurihara Osaka University, Japan Scott Moss Manchester Metropolitan University, UK Sung-Bae Cho Yonsei University, Korea Takao Terano University of Tsukuba, Japan Wander Jager University of Groningen, The Netherlands Additional Referees Alexei Sharpanskykh, The Netherlands Anarosa Branda˜o, Brazil Charlotte Gerritsen, The Netherlands Fiemke Both, The Netherlands Jos´e Eurico Filho, Brazil Lu´ıs Mota, Portugal Marc Esteva, Spain Table of Contents Simulation of Economic Behaviour Modeling Power Distance in Trade ................................. 1 Gert Jan Hofstede, Catholijn M. Jonker, and Tim Verwaart Intrusion of Agent-Based Social Simulation in Economic Theory ....... 17 Bogdan Werth and Scott Moss Modelling and Simulation of Social Behaviour A Model for HIV Spread in a South African Village ................. 33 Shah Jamal Alam, Ruth Meyer, and Emma Norling Understanding Collective Cognitive Convergence..................... 46 H.V. Parunak, T.C. Belding, R. Hilscher, and S. Brueckner Dynamics of Agent Organizations: Application to Modeling Irregular Warfare......................................................... 60 Maksim Tsvetovat and Maciej L(cid:2) atek Applications Using Simulation to Evaluate Data-Driven Agents.................... 71 Elizabeth Sklar and Ilknur Icke Evaluation of Automated Guided Vehicle Systems for Container Terminals Using Multi Agent Based Simulation ...................... 85 Lawrence Henesey, Paul Davidsson, and Jan A. Persson MASFMMS: Multi Agent Systems Framework for Malware Modeling and Simulation .................................................. 97 Rohan Monga and Kamalakar Karlapalem Techniques, Infrastructure and Technologies Towards a Formal Semantics of Event-BasedMulti-agent Simulations... 110 Jean-Pierre Mu¨ller A User Interface to Support Dialogue and Negotiation in Participatory Simulations ..................................................... 127 Eurico Vasconcelos, Jean-Pierre Briot, Marta Irving, Simone Barbosa, and Vasco Furtado X Table of Contents Towards Agents for Policy Making ................................. 141 Frank Dignum, Virginia Dignum, and Catholijn M. Jonker Methods and Methodologies A Quantitative Method for Comparing Multi-agent-Based Simulations in Feature Space ................................................. 154 Ryota Arai and Shigeyoshi Watanabe Deepening the Demographic Mechanisms in a Data-Driven Social Simulation of Moral Values Evolution............................... 167 Samer Hassan, Luis Antunes, and Milla´n Arroyo Cross-Disciplinary Views on Modelling Complex Systems ............. 183 Emma Norling, Craig R. Powell, and Bruce Edmonds Towards a New Approach in Social Simulations: Meta-language........ 195 Raif Serkan Albayrak and Ahmet K. Su¨erdem Author Index.................................................. 215 Modeling Power Distance in Trade Gert Jan Hofstede1, Catholijn M. Jonker2, and Tim Verwaart3 1 Wageningen University, Postbus 9109, 6700 HB Wageningen, The Netherlands [email protected] 2 Delft University of Technology, Mekelweg 4, 2628 CD Delft, The Netherlands [email protected] 3 LEI Wageningen UR, Postbus 29703, 2502 LS den Haag, The Netherlands [email protected] Abstract. Agent-based computational economics studies the nature of economic processes by means of artificial agents that simulate human behavior. Human behavior is known to be scripted by cultural background. The processes of trade partner selection and negotiation work out differently in different communities. Different communities have different norms regarding trust and opportunism. These differences are relevant for processes studied in economics, especially for international trade. This paper takes Hofstede’s model of national culture as a point of departure. It models the effects on trade processes of one of the five dimensions: power distance. It formulates rules for the behavior of artificial trading agents and presents a preliminary verification of the rules in a multi-agent simulation. Keywords: culture, negotiation, trust, deceit, simulation. 1 Introduction Any experienced international traveler knows that economic transactions do not come to pass in the same way across cultures. Haggling, checking on quality, and style of negotiation vary considerably across the world. In the quest to understand the mechanisms that underlie these differences this article adopts the approach of designing agent-based simulation models. It builds on [1], that describes the modeling of behavioral differences of participants in a human gaming simulation. The game gives players the choice to either trust their trade partners to live up to their promises, or to spend money, time, and relational assets to check (trace) them. In the game, differences are observed between players from different cultural backgrounds [2]. Generally negotiation - which is an essential process in trade - is recognized to develop differently in different cultural settings, see e.g. [3]. For electronically mediated negotiations, [4] reports considerable differences across countries with respect to expectations and process. Negotiation relates to the pre-contract phase of economic transactions. Trust and opportunism predominantly relate to the post-contract phase: the delivery. [5] gives evidence that both trust and opportunism can be profitable in this phase. It suggests N. David and J.S. Sichmann (Eds.): MABS 2008, LNAI 5269, pp. 1–16, 2009. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2009 2 G.J. Hofstede, C.M. Jonker, and T. Verwaart that in different societies self-sustaining systems of either trust or opportunism might prevail. [6] supports these findings: the extent to which people expect deceit and are likely to lie in business negotiations differs considerably across cultures. The discipline of agent-based economics [7] recognizes that using artificial agents to simulate human behavior contributes to the understanding of economic processes. Models of cultural influences on behavior in searching, bargaining, monitoring, and enforcing contracts are essential for developing realistic agents that can help us understand the differentiation of economic systems and institutions across the world. The design of culturally scripted agents serves several purposes. First it is useful for research into the effects of culture in trade, as described in the previous paragraph. Secondly, it can be used in education and training to make traders aware of cultural differences. Furthermore, the models can be used for developing negotiation support systems. The approach taken by the authors is to make use of the widely used 5-dimension framework of Hofstede [8]. The present paper’s research goal is to investigate the role of the cultural dimension of power distance as a determinant of trade processes and outcomes. We adopt the perspective of the trader that uses the endemic logic of a particular orientation on the power distance scale. 2 Power Distance and Trade Can traders predict the behavior of potential partners depending on which part of the world these partners come from? Granting that each individual is unique, they can. For this, traders need knowledge about the socialization that the potential partners underwent in childhood, in other words about their culture. In many cases, nationality is a good predictor of the participants’ basic values. For instance, business in China tends to be done over a meal, and observing social hierarchy during meals is important. In the Netherlands, business is done during working hours and little concern is given to the formal status of traders. This statement is inadequate for some Chinese and some Dutch traders but it is certainly more true than its opposite would be. The work of Hofstede [8, 9] characterizes these values in the form of five basic dimensions of social life that pertain to identity, power distance, gender roles, fear of the unknown, and long- vs short-term orientation. The dimension of power distance is central in the present paper. Hofstede [8] defines power distance as the extent to which the less powerful accept and expect that power is distributed unequally. The dimension runs from egalitarian (small power distance, e.g., in Anglo, Germanic and Nordic cultures) to hierarchical (large power distance, in most other cultures; see table 1). Table 1. Some distinctions between norms in hierarchical and egalitarian societies Large power distance (hierarchical) Small power distance (egalitarian) Might is right No privileges and status symbols Formal speech; acknowledgement Talk freely in any context Dictate, obey Negotiate Show favor to mighty business partners Treat all business partners equally
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