Moving beyond the jobs crisis.

311 Pages·2010·5.916 MB·English

by  OECD

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OECD Employment Outlook

OECD
MOVING BEYOND THE JOBS CRISIS
Employment
Moving Beyond the Jobs Crisis
Why did unemployment rise so much more sharply in some countries than in others that were also hit
hard by the global recession? Have governments taken effective measures to help workers weather Outlook
the storm? What are the prospects for a job-rich recovery?
The Global Crisis in Emerging Economies: The Jobs Impact and Policy Response
How has the recent crisis affected emerging economies and their labour market outcomes? What is
MOVING BEYOND THE JOBS CRISIS
the role of employment and social policies to support the incomes of those in need? How can existing
safety nets be best used to address increasing needs and what are the challenges they face?
Institutional and Policy Determinants of Labour Market Flows
What determines cross-country differences in hiring and separation rates? Can policies enhance
growth by removing barriers to labour reallocation across industries, firms and jobs? What are the
effects of different policies on the likelihood and cost of losing a job? And what is their impact on
wage premia and losses associated with different types of labour market transitions?
How Good is Part-time Work?
How do part-time jobs compare to full-time jobs in terms of pay, advancement, job security, O
working-time conditions and stress? Is part-time work the way to increase labour supply in E
C
ageing OECD societies? What barriers prevent part-timers from moving into full-time jobs? D

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2010
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OECD Employment
Outlook 2010
MOVING BEYOND THE JOBS CRISIS
The OECD Employment Outlook
Provides an annual assessment of labour market developments and prospects in member
countries. Each issue contains an overall analysis of the latest labour market trends and short-
term forecasts, and examines key labour market developments. Reference statistics are also
included.
This year’s edition of the OECD Employment Outlook is the joint work of staff of the Directorate
for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs. It has benefited from contributions from national
government delegates. It is published on the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD.
This report is based on draft contributions from David Haugh, Alexander Hijzen, Paul Swaim
and Danielle Venn (Chapter1); Alexander Hijzen, Ann Vourc’h and Theodora Xenogiani
(Chapter2); Andrea Bassanini and Pascal Marianna (Chapter3); and Anne Saint-Martin and
Danielle Venn (Chapter4). Stefano Scarpetta edited the report. The assessments of countries’
labour market prospects do not necessarily correspond to those of the national authorities
concerned.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Table of Contents
Editorial. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Chapter 1. Moving Beyond the Jobs Crisis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Main findings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
1.Overview of the labour market impact of the recession . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
1.1.How bad has it been?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
1.2.How bad has this crisis been according to less conventional measures
of labour market slack?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
1.3.Why has the impact been so uneven across OECD countries? . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
2.Comparisons of labour demand adjustment across countries, recessions
and types of firms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
2.1.Most OECD economies have suffered large negative shocks with highly
variable impacts on employment, unemployment and labour productivity. . . 33
2.2.The choice between employment and hours adjustment underlies
many of these patterns. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
2.3.Implications for total labour input adjustment and wages. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
3.The policy response to the jobs crisis in OECD countries: an update . . . . . . . . . . 46
3.1.The policy stance in2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
3.2.Measures to stimulate labour demand. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
3.3.Re-employment measures and training. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
3.4.Income support for job losers and low-income earners. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
4.The role of short-time work schemes in limiting job losses during
the 2008-09recession . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
4.1.Overview of short-time work schemes in OECD countries
and previous evidence on their effectiveness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
4.2.New OECD evidence. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
5.What can be done to minimise the persistence of high labour market slack? . . 75
5.1.Promoting a job-rich recovery: what role for job subsidies? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
5.2.Reducing unemployment and labour force withdrawal hysteresis . . . . . . . . 82
Conclusions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
Annex 1.A1.The institutional features of short-time work schemes in place
during the recession in OECD countries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
Chapter 2. The Global Crisis in Emerging Economies: The Jobs Impact
and Policy Response. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104
Main findings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104
OECD EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK 2010 – MOVING BEYOND THE JOBS CRISIS © OECD 2010 3
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1.The economic and social impact of the global financial crisis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
1.1.The economic crisis in emerging economies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
1.2.The impact of the crisis on labour markets in emerging economies. . . . . . . 112
2.The impact of previous crisis episodes on labour markets
and demographic groups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
2.1.How did past crisis episodes affect aggregate labour market outcomes? . . . 121
2.2.Which groups were most vulnerable and which groups most affected
during previous crises? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123
2.3.The implications of past crisis episodes for the crisis of2008-09. . . . . . . . . . 126
3.Labour market and social policies at times of crisis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
3.1.Ageneral overview of social protection in emerging economies . . . . . . . . . . 130
3.2.Unemployment compensation schemes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
3.3.Cash transfers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141
3.4.Public works programmes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148
Conclusions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154
Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161
Chapter 3. Institutional and Policy Determinants of Labour Market Flows . . . . . . . . . . 167
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168
Main findings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169
1.Cross-country differences in labour reallocation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170
2.What role for labour market policies and regulations?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178
2.1.Employment protection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181
2.2.Unemployment benefits. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190
2.3.Minimum wages. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 196
2.4.Anti-competitive product market regulation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197
Conclusions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199
Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202
Annex 3.A1. Data Construction and Sources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208
Chapter 4. How Good is Part-Time Work? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 212
Main findings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 212
1.Part-time work: recent developments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214
1.1.Part-time work has further increased over the past decade
and is predominantly voluntary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214
1.2.New regulations for part-time work . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217
2.Are part-time jobs worse than full-time jobs? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220
2.1.Job quality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220
2.2.Do part-time workers face economic hardship?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231
3.Can part-time work help mobilise under-represented groups
in the labour market? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 236
3.1.How is part-time employment related to full-time employment
and inactivity? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 237
3.2.Acloser look at transitions from part-time employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242
Conclusions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 250
4 OECD EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK 2010 – MOVING BEYOND THE JOBS CRISIS © OECD 2010
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 252
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 253
Annex 4.A1. Job Quality Decomposition Methodology and Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257
Annex 4.A2. Supplementary Figures and Tables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 263
Statistical Annex. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 267
Figures
1.1.Comparing unemployment rate trajectories during this and previous recessions. . 20
1.2.The unemployment impact has differed greatly across countries . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
1.3.Some workforce groups have been hit especially hard, while women,
older and high-skilled workers have fared better. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
1.4.Some industries have been hit harder than others, largely in keeping
with historical patterns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
1.5.The increase in unemployment was accompanied by growth of other forms
of unemployment and underemployment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
1.6.Hours worked fell for those who remained employed in almost all countries . . 28
1.7.The unemployment impact of the recession has been surprisingly uneven
across countries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
1.8.Recent unemployment developments reflect diverse impacts of the recession
on real GDP, employment and participation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
1.9.Change in output in the 2008-09recession in historical comparison:
adeep recession in most countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
1.10.Change in unemployment in the 2008-09recession in historical comparison:
an unusually large increase in some countries, but a muted impact in others . . . 35
1.11.Change in labour productivity in the 2008-09recession in historical comparison:
unusually steep declines in many countries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
1.12.Labour productivity growth and contribution of hours worked to overall
labour adjustment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
1.13.The share of hours worked in total labour input adjustment tends to fall
over the course of a recession. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
1.14.Response of labour input to GDP from peak to trough in historical comparison:
high variability across countries and recessions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
1.15.Changes in unemployment, real wages and productivity relative to trend
during the 2008-09recession. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
1.16.Anticipated change in resources devoted to labour market policy,
2010compared with2009. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
1.17.Reductions in employer social security contributions for continuing
and new workers in selected countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
1.18.Reductions in employer social security contributions for new hires
in selected countries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
1.19.Annual average stock of employees participating in short-time work schemes
as percentage of all employees . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
1.20.Percentage change in PES workload, staffing and outcomes, 2007-09. . . . . . . . . . 53
1.21.Growth in unemployment benefit recipients and unemployment . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
1.22.Did short-time work schemes affect labour market adjustment during
the 2008-09recession? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
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1.23.Short-time work schemes reduced the output sensitivity of employment,
but increased that of average hours. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
1.24.Short-time work schemes helped to preserve permanent jobs
in the 2008-09recession. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
1.25.Changes in unemployment inflows and outflows during the downturn
and early recovery in OECD countries, 2007Q4-2009Q4. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
2.1.All countries have been affected to some extent by the global crisis
of2008-09 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108
2.2.Impact of the global financial crisis on exports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
2.3.Impact of the global financial crisis on foreign direct investment
and remittances inflows. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110
2.4.GDP per capita is much lower in emerging economies than in the OECD area . . . 112
2.5.Absolute poverty rates are high in some emerging economies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
2.6.Informal employment is widespread in most emerging economies. . . . . . . . . . . 115
2.7.Impact of the growth slowdown on employment and unemployment. . . . . . . . . 117
2.8.Adjusting the wage bill to the economic slowdown. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
2.9.Cyclical changes in consumption during the crisis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120
2.10.The Indonesian and Mexican 1990scrises. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122
2.11.Labour market performance across different population groups . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124
2.12.Simulated aggregate impact of the crisis of2008-09 on formal employment
in historical perspective. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
2.13.Simulated impact of the crisis of2008-09 on formal employment
by population group in historical perspective. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128
2.14.Public social expenditure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
2.15.Unemployment insurance in crisis times in Brazil, Chile and Russia. . . . . . . . . . 140
2.16.Targeting errors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145
3.1.Gross worker reallocation rates in OECD countries, 2000-07 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171
3.2.Job-to-job, jobless-to-job and job-to-jobless flows, 2000-07 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175
3.3.Dismissal rates in selected countries, 1995-2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176
3.4.Average wage premia to job change, 1995-2001 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177
3.5.Impact of regulation for individual and collective dismissals, controlling
for the share of temporary workers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185
3.6.Regulation for individual and collective dismissals, share of temporary
workers and overall impact on worker reallocation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186
3.7.Impact of selected EP components on gross worker reallocation . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187
3.8.Impact of regulation for individual and collective dismissals
on worker reallocation, by type of transition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189
3.9.Unemployment benefit generosity and gross worker flows. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192
3.10.Impact of unemployment benefit generosity on worker reallocation,
by group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193
3.11.Impact of unemployment-benefit generosity on worker reallocation,
by type of transition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194
3.12.Anti-competitive product market regulation and gross worker flows . . . . . . . . . 199
4.1.Part-time employment in OECD countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215
4.2.Rights to work part-time and the spread of part-time work. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219
4.3.Earnings potential, representation and job security, ratio of part-time
to full-time employees . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 222
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4.4.Explaining the part-time penalty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224
4.5.Working-time arrangements and health, ratio of part-time
to full-time employees . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226
4.6.Explaining the part-time premium. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 228
4.7.Unexplained job quality gap by level of part-time employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 230
4.8.Unexplained gap in likelihood of being satisfied with job (part-time minus
full-time) after controlling for individual and job characteristics . . . . . . . . . . . . . 230
4.9.Part-time work and in-work poverty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 232
4.10.In-work poverty among part-timers and household composition. . . . . . . . . . . . . 233
4.11.In-work poverty among part-timers and employment intensity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 234
4.12.Population shares in part-time jobs, full-time jobs and inactivity:
is there a link? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 237
4.13.Reasons for working part-time or being inactive . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239
4.14.Women’s part-time work over the life cycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 240
4.15.Is part-time work a transitory labour market state? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243
4.16.Where do workers go when exiting part-time employment?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 244
4.17.Which workers are most likely to move out of part-time employment? . . . . . . . 245
4.18.Transition patterns among part-time workers by poverty status . . . . . . . . . . . . . 246
4.19.Marginal effective tax rate for low-wage workers moving from part-time
to full-time employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248
4.20.An estimation of the impact of the tax and benefit system on transitions from
part-time work to full-time employment or non-employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 249
4.A2.1.Part-time employment by demographic group. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 264
4.A2.2.Work intensity of part-timers and incidence of voluntary and involuntary
part-time employment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 265
Tables
1.1.How many jobs are needed to restore pre-crisis employment rates? . . . . . . . . . . 25
1.2.Cross-country differences in the impact of the recession on real GDP
are only one of the factors determining how sharply unemployment rose. . . . . 32
1.3.Relative policy stance by labour market and government budget situation,
2010compared with2009. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
1.4.The impact of short-time work schemes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
1.5.Potential vulnerability to an increase in structural unemployment varies
by country. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
1.6.Estimated impacts of recessions on participation rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
2.1.Fiscal policy during the global financial crisis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
2.2.Recent trends in labour market outcomes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116
2.3.How sensitive to the business cycle are the labour market outcomes
of different groups?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
2.4.Existing programmes, new programmes and reforms. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
2.5.Unemployment compensation schemes: contribution requirements, benefits
and coverage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
2.6.Relative generosity of unemployment benefit schemes before the crisis. . . . . . . 138
2.7.Main (non-pension) cash transfer programmes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142
2.8.Main features of public works programmes (PWPs). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149
3.1.Estimated wage premia to job change, 1995-2001 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174
4.1.Statutory rights for part-time work and part-time workers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218
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4.2.Unemployment benefit coverage for part-time workers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235
4.3.Relationship between part-time, full-time employment and inactivity
among under-represented groups. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238
4.4.Eligibility for employment services for underemployed workers
who are registered job seekers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251
4.A1.1.Explaining the part-time premium, detailed results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 261
4.A1.2.Explaining the part-time penalty, detailed results. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 262
4.A2.1.Determinants of transition probabilities of moving from part-time work
to either full-time employment or non-employment over any two-year period
between2004 and2007. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 266
A.Harmonised unemployment rates in OECD countries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 270
B.Employment/population ratios, activity and unemployment rates. . . . . . . . . . . . 271
C.Employment/population ratios, activity and unemployment rates
by selected age groups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 274
D.Employment/population ratios, activity and unemployment rates
by educational attainment, 2008. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 283
E.Incidence and composition of part-time employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 286
F.Incidence of temporary employment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 288
G.Average annual hours actually worked per person in employment . . . . . . . . . . . 290
H.Incidence of long-term unemployment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 292
I.Earnings dispersion, gender wage gap and incidence of low pay . . . . . . . . . . . . . 295
J.Average annual wages in the total economy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 296
K.Public expenditure and participant stocks in labour market programmes
in OECD countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 297
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