Monitoring and Forecasting of Sorgum and Millet Yields Using FAO-Water Satisfaction Index in the ...

87 Pages·2012·1.1 MB·English

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Monitoring and Forecasting of Sorgum and Millet
Yields Using FAO-Water Satisfaction Index in the
White Nile State, Sudan

By:
AlamEldien Yahia Omer
B.Sc (Forestry Sciences) Hon.
Faculty of Forestry
Khartum University, 2005

A Dissertation Submitted to the University of Khartoum in Partial
Fulfillment of the Requirements for M.Sc. Degree in Desertification

Supervisor:
Professor/ Mukhtar Ahmed Mustafa

Desertification and Desert Cultivation Studies Institute
University of Khartoum
2011
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To my father yahia omer...
To my mother malka aboo ali,
To my brothers and sisters,
To my teachers,
To my dear friends and colleagues,
For you all,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

With hopefulness and love....

Alameldien Yahia omer

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Acknowledgement

First thanks to Allah for our health and wellnessand through him, I would
like to express my deep appreciations, gratitude and indebtedness to my supervisor
professor Mukhtar Ahmed Mustafa for his kind and helpful guidance and
supervision of this work.
Special thanks to the UNESCO Chair of Desertification which supported
me and financed this research.
My appreciations and indebtedness to professor Mukhtar and the academic
staff of Desertification and Desert Cultivation Studies Institute for their
kind help offered during the courses of study.
I would like to express my deep gratitude and best wishes to my mother, to my
father, to my brothers, to my sisters and to my friends for their kind helpfulness.
Finally, my sincere warm appreciations with love to my friend Mohammed
khair.
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Table of Contents
Title........................................................................................................... Page
Dedication......................................................................................................... i
Acknowledgement........................................................................................... ii
Table of Contents........................................................................................... iii
List of Tables................................................................................................... v
List of Figures................................................................................................ ix
Abstract............................................................................................................ x
Arabic Abstract.............................................................................................. xi

Chapter One: Introduction............................................................................. 1

Chapter Two: Literature Review.................................................................. 4

2. 1 Introduction............................................................................................ 4
2. 2 Factors affecting crop yield.................................................................... 4
2. 2. 1 Climatic factors................................................................................... 5
2. 2. 1. 1 Rainfall........................................................................................... 5
2. 2. 1. 2 Solar radiation............................................................................... 6
2. 2. 1. 3 Temperature................................................................................... 7
2. 2. 1. 4 Wind................................................................................................ 7
2. 2. 1. 5 Evaporation...................................................................................... 8
2. 2. 2 Plant factors.......................................................................................... 8
2. 2. 2. 1 Transpiration................................................................................... 8
2. 2. 2. 2 Evapotranspiration........................................................................... 9
2. 2. 2. 3 Crop growth stages.......................................................................... 9
2. 2. 2. 4 Crop coefficient (kc)........................................................................ 11
2. 2. 2. 5 Cultural operations or practices..................................................... 11
2. 3 Agronomy of the crops under the study.................................................... 12
2. 3. 1 Millet..................................................................................................... 12
2. 3. 2 Sorghum............................................................................................... 13
2. 4 Crop yield assessment in Sudan................................................................ 14
2. 5 FAO water index and crop yield............................................................... 15

Chapter Three: Materials and Methods............................................................ 17

3. 1. The study area......................................................................................... 17

3. 2 Materials................................................................................................... 18
3.2.1 Climatic data......................................................................................... 18
3. 2.2 Crop data............................................................................................. 18
3. 3.1 Methods.................................................................................................. 24
3. 2. 2 FAO Methodology for crop water requirement satisfaction index. 25

Chapter Four: Results and Discussions ............................................................ 27

4. 1 Sowing dates and length of the growing season........................................ 27
4.1.1 Kosti …………………………………………………………………….27
4.1.2 El-Dueim………………………………………………………………...28
4.2 Crop coefficient …………………………………………………………..29
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4.3 Water balance and crop water requirement satisfaction index……………29
4.3.1 Kosti……………………………………………………………………..30
4.31.1 Millet …………………………………………………………………..30
4.3.1.2 Sorghum…………………………………………………………….....35
4.3.2 El-Dueim………………………………………………………………...39
4.3.2.1 Millet ………………………………………………………………….39
4.3.2.2 Sorghum……………………………………………………………….43

Chapter Five: Conclusions and Recommendations...........................................48

5. 1 Conclusions.................................................................................................48
5. 2 Recommendations.......................................................................................49
References......................................................................................................... 50
Appendix………………………………………………………… 55
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List of Tables
No. Title Page
2.1 FAO water index and crop yield scale 15
3.1 Mean monthly normal rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (ETp)
for Kosti and El-Duiem Meteorological Stations during the period
(1971-2000) 19
3.2 Dekadal rainfall for Kosti Meteorological Station for each year during
the period (1991-2000) 20
3.3 Dekadalpotential evapotranspiration (ETp) for Kosti Meteorological
Station for each year during the period (1991-2000 21
3.4 Dekadal rainfall for El-Duiem Meteorological Station for each year
during the period (1991-2000) 22
3.5 Dekadal potential evapotranspiration (ETp) for EL-Duiem
Meteorological Stations during the period (1991-2000) 23
3.6 The yield (kg/fed) of millet and sorghum in the mechanized and
traditional sub-sectors in the White Nile State for the period 1991-2000 24
4.1 Dekadal crop coefficients for millet and sorghum. 29
4.2 Calculation of water requirement satisfaction index of millet in
2000 season in Kosti, White Nile State 30
4.3 Seasonal water satisfaction index (WI), yield (mechanized), rainfall,
potential evapotranspiration (ETp), water excess or deficit (S/D) and
water requirement (Wr) of millet at Kosti during the period 1991-2000 32
t
4.4 The seasonal millet yield (kg/ha) in the traditional sector in Kosti area 34
4.5 Calculation of the water requirement satisfaction index of sorghum
(mechanized) in 2000 season in Kosti, White Nile State. 35
4.6 Seasonal water satisfaction index (WI), yield (mechanized),
rainfall, potential evapotranspiration (ETp), water excess or deficit
(S/D) and water requirement (Wr) of sorghum at Kosti during the
t
period 1991- 2000. 36
4.7 The seasonal sorghum yield (kg/ha) in the traditional sector in
Kosti area
38
4.8 Calculation of water requirement satisfaction index of
millet (mechanized) in 2000 season in El-Dueim 
4.9 Seasonal water satisfaction index (WI), yield (mechanized), rainfall,
potential evapotranspiration (ETp), water excess or deficit (S/D) and
water requirement (Wr) of millet at EL-Dueim during the period
t
1991-2000. 
4.10 The seasonal millet yield (kg/ha) in the traditional sector in El-Dueim
area 
4.11 Calculation of the water requirement satisfaction index of sorghum in
2000 season in El-Dueim, White Nile State. 
4.12 Seasonal water satisfaction index (WI), yield (mechanized), rainfall,
potential evapotranspiration (ETp), water excess or deficit (S/D) and
water requirement (Wr) of sorghum at El-Dueim during the period
t
1991-2000. 
4.13 The seasonal sorghum yield (kg/ha) in the traditional sector in El-
Dueim area 
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List of Figures
No. Title Page
4.1 Distribution of normal rainfall (Pn) and potential
evapotranspiration (PET) for delineating the growth periods of Kosti
area 
4.2 Distribution of normal rainfall (Pn) and potential evapotranspiration
(PET) for delineating the growth periods of El-Dueim area. 
4.3 Mechanized millet yield as a function of water satisfaction index
(WSI) for Kosti area 3
4.4 Traditional Millet yield as a function of water satisfaction index(WSI)
for Kosti area 4
4.5 Mechanized sorghum yield as a function of water satisfaction index
(WSI) for Kosti area. 
4.6 Traditional sorghum yield as a function of water satisfaction
index(WSI) for Kosti area 
4.7 Mechanized millet yield as a function of water satisfaction indexIn El-
Dueim area 42
4.8 Traditional millet yield as a function of water Satisfaction index (WSI)
for El-Dueim area 4
4.9 Mechanized sorghum yield as a function of water
Satisfaction index (WSI) for El-Dueim area 4
4.10 Traditional sorghum yield as a function of waterSatisfaction index
(WSI) for El-Dueim area 

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Monitoring and Forecasting of Sorghum and Millet Yields Using
FAO-Water Satisfaction Index in the White Nile State, Sudan

Abstract
This study undertaken to test the validity of the FAO water requirement
satisfaction index (WSI) for monitoring and predicting the yields of millet
(Pennisetum glaucum L.) and sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. (Monech), which are
grown in the mechanized and traditional sub-sectors in the White Nile State. The
growth periods were determined from the relationships of the dekadal (10-days)
mean normal (30 years) rainfall and potential evapotranspiration of Kosti and
El-Dueim. Seasonal WSIs for each crop were estimated in dekadal intervals from
soil- water balance for the period 1991-2000. The indices indicated the extent to
which the water requirements were satisfied in a cumulative way. The growing
season of Kosti extended for about 90 days and that of El-Dueim for about 60
days. The calculations of the WSI for millet and sorghum for season 2000 in each
study area was presented and analyzed. The relationships between yields of
crops and WSI in Kosti showed a non-significant correlation for millet in the
mechanized and traditional sub-sectors. Sorghum showed a significant quadratic
correlation (r = 0.833) for the mechanized sub-sector and non-significant
correlation for the traditional sub-sector. In El-Dueim there was not a significant
correlation between yield and WSI for millet in the mechanized and traditional
sub-sectors. For Sorghum there was lack of significant correlation between yield
and WSI in the mechanized sub-sector and significant quadratic correlation (r =
0.815) in the traditional sub-sector.

According to the FAO Method, crop yield should increase with increase of WSI.
However, the results showed in some cases crop yield decreased with increase in
WSI. This was attributed to factors that affect crop yield but were not included
in the calculation of WSI. Furthermore the assessment of crop yield by the
Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry may not be accurate.

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