Models of Disequilibrium and Shortage in Centrally Planned Economies

503 Pages·1989·16.25 MB·English

by  Christopher Davis

Models of
Disequilibrium and Shortage in
Centrally Planned Economies
INTERNATIONAL STUDIES IN ECONOMIC MODELLING
Series Editor
Homa Motamen
Executive Director
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce
Securities Europe Ltd
London
Economic Modelling in the OECD Countries
H. Motamen
Modelling the Labour Market
M. Beenstock
Input-Output Analysis
M. Ciaschini
In preparation
Economic Models of Latin America
D. E. Hojman
Economic Models of Trade Unions
P. Garonna
Models of Disequilibrium
and Shortage in Centrally
Planned Economies
Edited by
Christopher Davis
Centre for Russian and East European Studies
University of Birmingham, UK
and
Wojciech Charemza
Department of Economics
University of Leicester, UK and
University of Gdansk, Poland
London
CHAPMAN AND HALL
New York
First published in 1989 by
Chapman and Hall Lid
J J New Fetter une, London EC4P 4EE
Published in the USA by
Chapman and Hall
29 West 35th Street, New York NY 10001
ISBN-13: 978-94-0 I 0-6856-7 ('-ISBN-13: 978-94-009-0823-9
1)01: 10_10071978-94-009-0823-9
to
1989 Chapman atld Hall Lid
Typeset in JOI12pt Saban by
Thomson Press (India) Lid
Soficovcr reprint of the hardcover I st edition 1989
All fighn reserved. No pan of this book may be reprinted or reproduced, or
utilized in any form or by any electronic, me<:hanical orother means, now known
or hereafter invented, including photO(:opying and recording, or in any inform
ation storage and retrieval system, withoUi permission in writing from the
publishers.
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
Models of disequilibrium and shortage in
centrally planned economies.-(International
studies in economic modelling).
1. Planned economies. Econometric models
I. Davis, C. (Christopher), II. Charemza, W.
(Wojciech) III. Series
330.12'4'0724
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publica/ion Data
Models of disequilibrium and shortage in centrally planned coonomies/edited by
Christopher Davis and Wojcie<:h Charemza.
p. em.-(International studies in economic modelling}
The volume resulted from Ihe Conference on Modelling of Disequilibrium and
Shorlage in Centrally Planned E<;onomies, held in Apr. 1987 al the University of
Birmingham, Birmingham, England.
Bibliography: p.
Includes inde)\".
1. Central planning- Poland-Econometric models-Congresses. 2.
Poland-E<;onomic p<)licy- 1981- Economctric models-Congresses. 3. Cen
tral planning- Hungary- Economctric models----COngresscs. 4 Hungary
Economic policy-1968-Econometric models-Congresses. S. Central
planning-Czechoslovakia-Econometric models-Congresses. 6. Czechos-
lovakia- Econom ic policy-1965 - Econometric models-Congresses.
7. Equilibrium (Economics)-Congresscs. 8. Scarcity-Congresses.
1. Davis, Christopher, 1948-. II. Charemza, Wojcicch. 111. Conference on
Modelling of Disequilibrium and Shortage in Centrally Planned Economies (1967:
University of Birmingham) IV. Series.
HC270.2B.M63 1989 88-31494
338.9438-dc 19 CIP
Contents
Contributors ' Vll
Acknowledgement IX
Introduction to the Series XI
Preface XlU
PAR T ONE The foundations of disequilibrium and shortage models
of centrally planned economies 1
1 Introduction to models of disequilibrium and shortage m centrally
planned economies 3
Christopher Davis and Woiciech Charemza
2 The theory and measurement of macroeconomic disequilibrium in
centrally planned economies 27
Richard Portes
3 The economics of shortage in the centrally planned economies
Paul Hare 49
4 The chronic excess demand hypothesis 83
David M. Kemme
5 Hidden and repressed inflation in Soviet-type economies: definitions,
measurements and stabilization 101
Domenico Mario Nuti
6 Disequilibrium econometrics for centrally planned economies 147
Richard E. Quandt
PAR T TWO Macroeconomic disequilibrium models of centrally
planned economies 179
7 Disequilibrium models of the Czechoslovak economy 181
Vladimir Dlouhy
Contents
VI
8 Macroeconomic disequilibrium models of Poland 205
Wladyslaw Welfe
9 Macroeconomic disequilibrium models of Hungary 247
Katalin Hulyak
PART THREE Sectoral shortage and disequilibrium models of
centrally planned economies 261
10 Sectoral shortage models in Hungary 263
Maria Lack6
11 Disequilibrium modelling of consumption m the centrally planned
economy 283
Wojciech Charemza
12 Savings and consumption in the centrally planned economy: a dis-
equilibrium approach 317
Aleksander Welfe
13 A disequilibrium approach to modelling foreign trade in centrally
planned economies 333
Josef C. Brada and Arthur E. King
14 Disequilibrium models of investment 361
Irena Grosfeld
15 Reproduction of shortage in the Hungarian car market 375
Zsuzsa Kapitany, Janos Kornai and Judit Szab6
16 Modelling parallel markets in centrally planned economies: the case of the
automobile market in Poland 405
Wojciech Charemza, Miroslaw Gronicki and Richard E. Quandt
17 Priority and the shortage model: the medical system in the socialist
economy 427
Christopher Davis
18 Conclusions and future prospects 461
Wojciech Charemza and Christopher Davis
Index 473
Contributors
Josef C. Brada Department of Economics, Arizona State University,
USA
Wojciech Charemza Department of Economics, University of Leicester,
UK and University of Gdansk, Poland
Christopher Davis Centre for Russian and East European Studies,
University of Birmingham, UK
Vladimir Dlouhy Institute for Forecasting, Czechoslovak Academy of
Sciences, Czechoslovakia
Miroslaw Gronicki Department of Statistics, University of Gdansk,
Poland
Irena Grosfeld Centre d'Economie Quantitative et Comparative,
France
Paul Hare Department of Economics, Heriot-Watt University,
UK
Katalin Hulyak Institute of Economic Planning, Hungary
Zsuzsa Kapitany Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of
Sciences, Hungary
David'M. Kemme Department of Economics, Wichita State University,
USA
Arthur E. King Department of Economics, Lehigh University, USA
Contributors
Vlll
Janos Kornai Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of
Sciences, Hungary and Harvard University, USA
Maria Lacko Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of
Sciences, Hungary
Domenico Mario Nuti European University Institute, Italy
Richard Portes Centre for Economic Policy Research and Birkbeck
College, UK
Richard E. Quandt Department of Economics, Princeton Ul1iversity,
USA
Judit Szabo Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of
Sciences, Hungary
Aleksander Welfe Institute of Econometrics and Statistics, University of
Lodz, Poland
Wladyslaw Welfe Institute of Econometrics and Statistics, University of
Lodz, Poland
Acknowledgement
This volume resulted from a conference supported by the Joint Committee on
Eastern Europe, of the American Council of Learned Societies and the Social
Science Research Council, with funds provided by the Ford Foundation.
Introduction to the Series
There has been a growing dependence in the past two decades on modelling as a
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