Modelling Transport, Fourth Edition

588 Pages·2011·9.096 MB·English

by  Juan de Dios Ortuzar, Luis G. Willumsen(auth.)

P1:TIX/SPH P2:TIX
JWST054-FM JWST054-Ortuzar February22,2011 13:7 PrinterName:YettoCome
MODELLING
TRANSPORT
Modelling Transport, Fourth Edition. Juan de Dios Ortúzar and Luis G. Willumsen.
© 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Published 2011 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. ISBN: 978-0-470-76039-0
P1:TIX/SPH P2:TIX
JWST054-FM JWST054-Ortuzar February22,2011 13:7 PrinterName:YettoCome
MODELLING
TRANSPORT
Fourth Edition
JuandeDiosOrtu´zar
DepartmentofTransportEngineeringandLogistics
PontificiaUniversidadCatólicadeChile
Santiago
Chile
LuisG.Willumsen
LuisWillumsenConsultancy
andUniversityCollegeLondon
London
UK
A John Wiley and Sons, Ltd., Publication
P1:TIX/SPH P2:TIX
JWST054-FM JWST054-Ortuzar February22,2011 13:7 PrinterName:YettoCome
Thiseditionpublished2011
(cid:2)C 2011JohnWiley&Sons,Ltd
Previouseditionspublished1990,1994,2001(cid:2)C JohnWiley&Sons,Ltd
Registeredoffice
JohnWiley&SonsLtd,TheAtrium,SouthernGate,Chichester,WestSussex,PO198SQ,UnitedKingdom
Fordetailsofourglobaleditorialoffices,forcustomerservicesandforinformationabouthowtoapplyfor
permissiontoreusethecopyrightmaterialinthisbookpleaseseeourwebsiteatwww.wiley.com.
Therightoftheauthortobeidentifiedastheauthorofthisworkhasbeenassertedinaccordancewiththe
Copyright,DesignsandPatentsAct1988.
Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem,ortransmitted,in
anyformorbyanymeans,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,recordingorotherwise,exceptaspermittedbythe
UKCopyright,DesignsandPatentsAct1988,withoutthepriorpermissionofthepublisher.
Wileyalsopublishesitsbooksinavarietyofelectronicformats.Somecontentthatappearsinprintmaynotbe
availableinelectronicbooks.
Designationsusedbycompaniestodistinguishtheirproductsareoftenclaimedastrademarks.Allbrandnamesand
productnamesusedinthisbookaretradenames,servicemarks,trademarksorregisteredtrademarksoftheir
respectiveowners.Thepublisherisnotassociatedwithanyproductorvendormentionedinthisbook.This
publicationisdesignedtoprovideaccurateandauthoritativeinformationinregardtothesubjectmattercovered.It
issoldontheunderstandingthatthepublisherisnotengagedinrenderingprofessionalservices.Ifprofessional
adviceorotherexpertassistanceisrequired,theservicesofacompetentprofessionalshouldbesought.
LibraryofCongressCataloguing-in-PublicationData
Ortuzar,JuandeDios(OrtuzarSalas),1949-
ModellingTransport/JuandeDiosOrtuzar,LuisG.Willumsen.–Fourthedition.
p.cm
Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.
ISBN978-0-470-76039-0(hardback)
1.Transportation–Mathematicalmodels. 2.Choiceoftransportation–Mathematicalmodels.
3.Tripgeneration–Mathematicalmodels. I.Willumsen,LuisG. II.Title.
HE147.7.O772011
388.01(cid:3)5118–dc22
2010050373
AcataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary.
PrintISBN:9780470760390
E-PdfISBN:9781119993315
O-bookISBN:9781119993308
E-PubISBN:9781119993520
MobiISBN:9781119993537
Typesetin9/11ptTimesbyAptaraInc.,NewDelhi,India.
P1:TIX/SPH P2:TIX
JWST054-FM JWST054-Ortuzar February22,2011 13:7 PrinterName:YettoCome
Contents
AbouttheAuthors xv
Preface xvii
1 Introduction 1
1.1 TransportPlanningandModelling 1
1.1.1 Background 1
1.1.2 ModelsandtheirRole 2
1.2 CharacteristicsofTransportProblems 3
1.2.1 CharacteristicsofTransportDemand 3
1.2.2 CharacteristicsofTransportSupply 4
1.2.3 EquilibrationofSupplyandDemand 6
1.3 ModellingandDecisionMaking 8
1.3.1 Decision-makingStyles 8
1.3.2 ChoosingModellingApproaches 10
1.4 IssuesinTransportModelling 14
1.4.1 GeneralModellingIssues 14
1.4.2 AggregateandDisaggregateModelling 18
1.4.3 Cross-sectionandTimeSeries 19
1.4.4 RevealedandStatedPreferences 20
1.5 TheStructureoftheClassicTransportModel 20
1.6 ContinuousTransportPlanning 23
1.7 TheoreticalBasisVersusExpedience 26
2 MathematicalPrerequisites 29
2.1 Introduction 29
2.2 AlgebraandFunctions 30
2.2.1 Introduction 30
2.2.2 FunctionsandGraphs 31
2.2.3 SumsofSeries 34
2.3 MatrixAlgebra 35
2.3.1 Introduction 35
2.3.2 BasicOperationsofMatrixAlgebra 36
2.4 ElementsofCalculus 37
2.4.1 Differentiation 37
2.4.2 Integration 38
2.4.3 TheLogarithmicandExponentialFunctions 39
P1:TIX/SPH P2:TIX
JWST054-FM JWST054-Ortuzar February22,2011 13:7 PrinterName:YettoCome
vi Contents
2.4.4 FindingMaximumandMinimumValuesofFunctions 40
2.4.5 FunctionsofMoreThanOneVariable 41
2.4.6 MultipleIntegration 43
2.4.7 Elasticities 43
2.4.8 SeriesExpansions 44
2.5 ElementaryMathematicalStatistics 44
2.5.1 Probabilities 44
2.5.2 RandomVariables 46
2.5.3 MomentsaroundZero 47
2.5.4 MoreAdvancedStatisticalConcepts 48
3 DataandSpace 55
3.1 BasicSamplingTheory 55
3.1.1 StatisticalConsiderations 55
3.1.2 ConceptualisationoftheSamplingProblem 60
3.1.3 PracticalConsiderationsinSampling 63
3.2 ErrorsinModellingandForecasting 65
3.2.1 DifferentTypesofError 65
3.2.2 TheModelComplexity/DataAccuracyTrade-off 68
3.3 BasicData-CollectionMethods 71
3.3.1 PracticalConsiderations 71
3.3.2 TypesofSurveys 73
3.3.3 SurveyDataCorrection,ExpansionandValidation 86
3.3.4 LongitudinalDataCollection 90
3.3.5 TravelTimeSurveys 93
3.4 StatedPreferenceSurveys 94
3.4.1 Introduction 94
3.4.2 TheSurveyProcess 99
3.4.3 CaseStudyExample 117
3.5 NetworkandZoningSystems 128
3.5.1 ZoningDesign 129
3.5.2 NetworkRepresentation 131
Exercises 135
4 TripGenerationModelling 139
4.1 Introduction 139
4.1.1 SomeBasicDefinitions 139
4.1.2 CharacterisationofJourneys 141
4.1.3 FactorsAffectingTripGeneration 142
4.1.4 Growth-factorModelling 143
4.2 RegressionAnalysis 144
4.2.1 TheLinearRegressionModel 144
4.2.2 Zonal-basedMultipleRegression 151
4.2.3 Household-basedRegression 153
4.2.4 TheProblemofNon-Linearity 154
4.2.5 ObtainingZonalTotals 156
4.2.6 MatchingGenerationsandAttractions 156
P1:TIX/SPH P2:TIX
JWST054-FM JWST054-Ortuzar February22,2011 13:7 PrinterName:YettoCome
Contents vii
4.3 Cross-ClassificationorCategoryAnalysis 157
4.3.1 TheClassicalModel 157
4.3.2 ImprovementstotheBasicModel 159
4.3.3 ThePerson-categoryApproach 162
4.4 TripGenerationandAccessibility 164
4.5 TheFrequencyChoiceLogitModel 165
4.6 ForecastingVariablesinTripGenerationAnalysis 167
4.7 StabilityandUpdatingofTripGenerationParameters 168
4.7.1 TemporalStability 168
4.7.2 GeographicStability 169
4.7.3 BayesianUpdatingofTripGenerationParameters 170
Exercises 172
5 TripDistributionModelling 175
5.1 DefinitionsandNotation 176
5.2 Growth-FactorMethods 178
5.2.1 UniformGrowthFactor 178
5.2.2 SinglyConstrainedGrowth-FactorMethods 179
5.2.3 DoublyConstrainedGrowthFactors 180
5.2.4 AdvantagesandLimitationsofGrowth-FactorMethods 181
5.3 SyntheticorGravityModels 182
5.3.1 TheGravityDistributionModel 182
5.3.2 SinglyandDoublyConstrainedModels 183
5.4 TheEntropy-MaximisingApproach 184
5.4.1 EntropyandModelGeneration 184
5.4.2 GenerationoftheGravityModel 186
5.4.3 PropertiesoftheGravityModel 188
5.4.4 Production/AttractionFormat 190
5.4.5 Segmentation 191
5.5 CalibrationofGravityModels 191
5.5.1 CalibrationandValidation 191
5.5.2 CalibrationTechniques 192
5.6 TheTri-proportionalApproach 193
5.6.1 Bi-proportionalFitting 193
5.6.2 ATri-proportionalProblem 195
5.6.3 PartialMatrixTechniques 196
5.7 OtherSyntheticModels 198
5.7.1 GeneralisationsoftheGravityModel 198
5.7.2 InterveningOpportunitiesModel 199
5.7.3 DisaggregateApproaches 200
5.8 PracticalConsiderations 201
5.8.1 SparseMatrices 201
5.8.2 TreatmentofExternalZones 201
5.8.3 Intra-zonalTrips 201
5.8.4 JourneyPurposes 202
5.8.5 KFactors 202
5.8.6 ErrorsinModelling 202
5.8.7 TheStabilityofTripMatrices 204
Exercises 205
P1:TIX/SPH P2:TIX
JWST054-FM JWST054-Ortuzar February22,2011 13:7 PrinterName:YettoCome
viii Contents
6 ModalSplitandDirectDemandModels 207
6.1 Introduction 207
6.2 FactorsInfluencingtheChoiceofMode 208
6.3 Trip-endModal-splitModels 209
6.4 TripInterchangeHeuristicsModal-splitModels 209
6.5 SyntheticModels 211
6.5.1 DistributionandModal-splitModels 211
6.5.2 DistributionandModal-splitStructures 213
6.5.3 Multimodal-splitModels 214
6.5.4 CalibrationofBinaryLogitModels 217
6.5.5 CalibrationofHierarchicalModal-splitModels 218
6.6 DirectDemandModels 219
6.6.1 Introduction 219
6.6.2 DirectDemandModels 220
6.6.3 AnUpdateonDirectDemandModelling 221
Exercises 223
7 DiscreteChoiceModels 227
7.1 GeneralConsiderations 227
7.2 TheoreticalFramework 230
7.3 TheMultinomialLogitModel(MNL) 232
7.3.1 SpecificationSearches 232
7.3.2 UniversalChoiceSetSpecification 233
7.3.3 SomePropertiesoftheMNL 234
7.4 TheNestedLogitModel(NL) 235
7.4.1 CorrelationandModelStructure 235
7.4.2 FundamentalsofNestedLogitModelling 237
7.4.3 TheNLinPractice 240
7.4.4 ControversiesaboutsomePropertiesoftheNLModel 241
7.5 TheMultinomialProbitModel 248
7.5.1 TheBinaryProbitModel 248
7.5.2 MultinomialProbitandTasteVariations 249
7.5.3 ComparingIndependentProbitandLogitModels 250
7.6 TheMixedLogitModel 250
7.6.1 ModelFormulation 250
7.6.2 ModelSpecifications 251
7.6.3 IdentificationProblems 254
7.7 OtherChoiceModelsandParadigms 256
7.7.1 OtherChoiceModels 256
7.7.2 ChoicebyEliminationandSatisfaction 256
7.7.3 HabitandHysteresis 258
7.7.4 ModellingwithPanelData 259
7.7.5 HybridChoiceModelsIncorporatingLatentVariables 265
Exercises 266
8 SpecificationandEstimationofDiscreteChoiceModels 269
8.1 Introduction 269
8.2 Choice-SetDetermination 270
8.2.1 Choice-setSize 270
8.2.2 Choice-setFormation 271
P1:TIX/SPH P2:TIX
JWST054-FM JWST054-Ortuzar February22,2011 13:7 PrinterName:YettoCome
Contents ix
8.3 SpecificationandFunctionalForm 272
8.3.1 FunctionalFormandTransformations 272
8.3.2 TheoreticalConsiderationsandFunctionalForm 273
8.3.3 IntrinsicNon-linearities:DestinationChoice 274
8.4 StatisticalEstimation 275
8.4.1 EstimationofModelsfromRandomSamples 275
8.4.2 EstimationofModelsfromChoice-basedSamples 288
8.4.3 EstimationofHybridChoiceModelswithLatentVariables 288
8.4.4 ComparisonofNon-nestedModels 291
8.5 EstimatingtheMultinomialProbitModel 292
8.5.1 NumericalIntegration 292
8.5.2 SimulatedMaximumLikelihood 293
8.5.3 AdvancedTechniques 294
8.6 EstimatingtheMixedLogitModel 295
8.6.1 ClassicalEstimation 296
8.6.2 BayesianEstimation 298
8.6.3 ChoiceofaMixingDistribution 302
8.6.4 RandomandQuasiRandomNumbers 305
8.6.5 EstimationofPanelDataModels 307
8.7 ModellingwithStated-PreferenceData 308
8.7.1 IdentifyingFunctionalForm 309
8.7.2 StatedPreferenceDataandDiscreteChoiceModelling 310
8.7.3 ModelEstimationwithMixedSCandRPData 322
Exercises 329
9 ModelAggregationandTransferability 333
9.1 Introduction 333
9.2 AggregationBiasandForecasting 334
9.3 ConfidenceIntervalsforPredictions 335
9.3.1 LinearApproximation 336
9.3.2 NonLinearProgramming 337
9.4 AggregationMethods 338
9.5 ModelUpdatingorTransferance 341
9.5.1 Introduction 341
9.5.2 MethodstoEvaluateModelTransferability 341
9.5.3 UpdatingwithDisaggregateData 343
9.5.4 UpdatingwithAggregateData 344
Exercises 345
10 Assignment 349
10.1 BasicConcepts 349
10.1.1 Introduction 349
10.1.2 DefinitionsandNotation 350
10.1.3 Speed–FlowandCost–FlowCurves 351
10.2 TrafficAssignmentMethods 355
10.2.1 Introduction 355
10.2.2 RouteChoice 356
10.2.3 TreeBuilding 358
10.3 All-or-nothingAssignment 359
P1:TIX/SPH P2:TIX
JWST054-FM JWST054-Ortuzar February22,2011 13:7 PrinterName:YettoCome
x Contents
10.4 StochasticMethods 361
10.4.1 Simulation-BasedMethods 361
10.4.2 ProportionalStochasticMethods 362
10.4.3 EmergingApproaches 364
10.5 CongestedAssignment 367
10.5.1 Wardrop’sequilibrium 367
10.5.2 HardandSoftSpeed-ChangeMethods 369
10.5.3 IncrementalAssignment 369
10.5.4 MethodofSuccessiveAverages 370
10.5.5 Braess’sParadox 372
10.6 Public-TransportAssignment 373
10.6.1 Introduction 373
10.6.2 IssuesinPublic-TransportAssignment 373
10.6.3 ModellingPublic-TransportRouteChoice 376
10.6.4 AssignmentofTransitTrips 380
10.7 LimitationsoftheClassicMethods 381
10.7.1 LimitationsintheNode-linkModeloftheRoadNetwork 381
10.7.2 ErrorsinDefiningAveragePerceivedCosts 382
10.7.3 NotallTripMakersPerceiveCostsintheSameWay 382
10.7.4 TheAssumptionofPerfectInformationaboutCostsinAllPartsoftheNetwork 382
10.7.5 Day-to-dayVariationsinDemand 382
10.7.6 ImperfectEstimationofChangesinTravelTimewithChangesin
theEstimatedFlowonLinks 383
10.7.7 TheDynamicNatureofTraffic 383
10.7.8 InputErrors 384
10.8 PracticalConsiderations 385
Exercises 388
11 EquilibriumandDynamicAssignment 391
11.1 Introduction 391
11.2 Equilibrium 392
11.2.1 AMathematicalProgrammingApproach 392
11.2.2 SocialEquilibrium 396
11.2.3 SolutionMethods 397
11.2.4 StochasticEquilibriumAssignment 401
11.2.5 CongestedPublicTransportAssignment 403
11.3 TransportSystemEquilibrium 404
11.3.1 EquilibriumandFeedback 404
11.3.2 FormulationoftheCombinedModelSystem 406
11.3.3 SolvingGeneralCombinedModels 409
11.3.4 MonitoringConvergence 410
11.4 TrafficDynamics 411
11.4.1 TheDynamicNatureofTraffic 411
11.4.2 TravelTimeReliability 413
11.4.3 JunctionInteractionMethods 414
11.4.4 DynamicTrafficAssignment(DTA) 415
11.5 DepartureTimeChoiceandAssignment 420
11.5.1 Introduction 420
11.5.2 MacroandMicroDepartureTimeChoice 421
P1:TIX/SPH P2:TIX
JWST054-FM JWST054-Ortuzar February22,2011 13:7 PrinterName:YettoCome
Contents xi
11.5.3 UnderlyingPrinciplesofMicroDepartureTimeChoice 421
11.5.4 SimpleSupply/DemandEquilibriumModels 423
11.5.5 TimeofTravelChoiceandEquilibriumAssignment 424
11.5.6 Conclusion 425
Exercises 426
12 SimplifiedTransportDemandModels 429
12.1 Introduction 429
12.2 SketchPlanningMethods 430
12.3 IncrementalDemandModels 431
12.3.1 IncrementalElasticityAnalysis 431
12.3.2 IncrementalorPivot-pointModelling 433
12.4 ModelEstimationfromTrafficCounts 435
12.4.1 Introduction 435
12.4.2 RouteChoiceandMatrixEstimation 436
12.4.3 TransportModelEstimationfromTrafficCounts 436
12.4.4 MatrixEstimationfromTrafficCounts 439
12.4.5 TrafficCountsandMatrixEstimation 444
12.4.6 LimitationsofME2 446
12.4.7 ImprovedMatrixEstimationModels 447
12.4.8 TreatmentofNon-proportionalAssignment 448
12.4.9 QualityofMatrixEstimationResults 450
12.4.10 EstimationofTripMatrixandModeChoice 450
12.5 MarginalandCorridorModels 452
12.5.1 Introduction 452
12.5.2 CorridorModels 453
12.5.3 MarginalDemandModels 454
12.6 GamingSimulation 456
Exercises 458
13 FreightDemandModels 461
13.1 Importance 461
13.2 FactorsAffectingGoodsMovements 462
13.3 PricingFreightServices 463
13.4 DataCollectionforFreightStudies 463
13.5 AggregateFreightDemandModelling 466
13.5.1 FreightGenerationsandAttractions 466
13.5.2 DistributionModels 466
13.5.3 ModeChoice 468
13.5.4 Assignment 468
13.5.5 Equilibrium 469
13.6 DisaggregateApproaches 470
13.7 SomePracticalIssues 471
14 ActivityBasedModels 473
14.1 Introduction 473
14.2 Activities,ToursandTrips 474
14.3 Tours,IndividualsandRepresentativeIndividuals 477
14.4 TheABMSystem 478