Astronomy & Astrophysics manuscript no. mwmodels˙aa˙2nd February 2, 2008 (DOI: will be inserted by hand later) Modelling the Milky Way through adiabatic compression of cold dark matter halo V. F. Cardone1 and M. Sereno2,3 1 Dipartimento di Fisica “E.R. Caianiello”, Universit`a di Salerno, and INFN, Sez. di Napoli, Gruppo Coll. di 5 Salerno, Via S.Allende, 84081 - Baronissi (Salerno), Italy 0 2 Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche, Universit`a di Napoli, and INFN, Sez. di Napoli, Complesso Universitario di 0 Monte S. Angelo, Via Cinthia, 80126 Napoli, Italy 2 3 IstitutoNazionalediAstrofisica-OsservatorioAstronomicodiCapodimonte,SalitaMoiariello16,80131Napoli, Italy n a J Received / Accepted 6 2 Abstract. Weusetheadiabatic compression theory tobuild a physically well-motivated Milky Way mass model inagreementwiththeobservationaldata.ThevisiblemassoftheGalaxyisdistributedinaspheroidalbulgeand 1 amulti-componentsdiscparametrized bythreegalactic parameters, theSundistancetothegalactic centre,R0, v the total bulge mass, Mbulge, and the local disc surface density, Σ⊙. To model the dark matter component, we 7 6 adiabatically compress a Navarro, Frenk and White (NFW) halo (with concentration c and total mass Mvir) for fixed values of the spin parameter, λ, the fraction of the mass in baryons, m , and the thin disc contribution to 5 b total angular momentum, j . An iterative selection procedure is used to explore in very detail the wide space of 1 d 0 parameters onlyselecting thosecombinationsof {R0,Mbulge,Σ⊙,λ,mb,jd,c,Mvir}thatgiverisetoaMilkyWay 5 model in agreement with theobservational constraints. This analysis leads usto concludethat only models with 0 R0 = 8.5kpc, 0.8×1010 M⊙ < Mbulge < 1.6×1010 M⊙ and 49 M⊙ pc−2 ≤ Σ⊙ ≤ 56 M⊙ pc−2 can be reconciled / with the set of observational constraints. As regard the parameters entering the adiabatic compression, we find h 0.03 ≤ λ ≤ 0.10 and 0.04 ≤ m ≤ 0.10, while the final estimates of the parameters describing the initial halo p b - profile turn out to be 5∼< c∼< 12 and 7×1011 M⊙ ∼< Mvir ∼< 17×1011 M⊙ (all at 95.7% CL). o r Key words.Galaxy: kinematics and dynamics – Galaxy: structure– galaxies: formation – dark matter t s a : v 1. Introduction still remains. Dark matter dominated objects, such as i X dwarf and low surface brightness galaxies, show rotation The determination of the mass distribution of the Milky r curves inconsistent with the central density cusp pre- a Way is a classical task of astronomy (Schmidt 1956, dicted by CDM cosmology (McGaugh & de Block 1998, Caldwell & Ostriker 1981, Dehnen & Binney 1998). The Alam et al. 2002). usual framework for the origin of structures in the Universe is provided by the Cold Dark Matter The understanding of galaxy formation also re- (CDM) paradigm. This standard cosmological the- mains unsolved in the standard hierarchical model. ory has proved very successful on large scale, in DissipationlessCDMhaloesareassumedto formbottom- explaining both the abundance and clustering of up via gravitational amplification of initial density fluc- galaxies (Peacock et al. 2001, Verde et al. 2002) and the tuations. Gas carried with such haloes cools and con- power spectrum of the cosmic microwave background tracts within them to form luminous, independent self- anisotropies (de Bernardis et al. 2000), but is experienc- gravitating units, which can form stars, at the halo ing a number of difficulties on the scales of galax- centres (Fall & Efstathiou 1980, Blumenthal et al. 1986, ies and dwarf galaxies. CDM paradigm predicts an Mo et al. 1998). The halo profile affects both gas cooling over-abundance of satellites around the Milky Way and infall since it determines the structural properties of and M31 by an order of magnitude (Klypin et al. 1999, the resultant heavy discs and dense nuclear bulges. Even Moore et al. 1999). While the presence of a photoion- if the growth of dark haloes is not much affected by the izing background can solve this “sub-structure” prob- baryoniccomponents,thehalogravitationallyrespondsto lem (Somerville 2002), difficulty about density profile the dissipative baryonic infall and the present day CDM haloes can have density profiles quite different from the Send offprint requests to: [email protected] original CDM prediction. 2 V. F. Cardone and M. Sereno: Modeling theMilky Way In this context, we want to address the density profile 2.1. The bulge problem by fitting CDM models to the observed prop- The morphology of the Galactic bulge (defined as the erties of the Milky Way. The Milky Way seems to be a spheroidwithinthegalacticcoordinates l <20oand b < typical system on a mass scale of 1012M⊙, mostly con- 10o region around the Galactic centre) i|s|much harde|r|to tributed by exotic particles, such as weakly interacting ascertain than that of the bulges in many external galax- massive particles or axions. Direct searches for dark com- ies, because of obscurationby interstellar dust due to our pact objects, such as MACHOs, in the Milky Way halo position in the Galactic plane. In the recent years, how- have been performed by the MACHO and EROS collab- ever, striking images of the Galactic bulge have been ob- orations through microlensing surveys. According to the tained in the near infrared (at wavelengths of 1.25, 2.2, MACHOgroup(Alcock et al. 2000b),themostlikelyhalo 3.5 and 4.9 µm) by the DIRBE experiment on board the fraction in form of compact objects with a mass in the COBE satellite (Arendt et al. 1994, Weiland et al. 1994) range 0.1 1 M⊙ is of about 20%; the EROS collabora- − allowingto study with goodaccuracyits structure.These tion (Lasserre et al. 2000) has set a 95% confidence limit images suggest that the stellar distribution in the bulge that objects less than 1 M⊙ contribute less than 40% of is bar-shaped, i.e. that the bulge is not rotationally the dark halo. These upper limits on the fraction of com- symmetric. However, a bar-like structure can not be pactobjectsareevidencesfavouringthatGalaxyhalocan used since the standard adiabatic compression theory be described by the standard cosmologicalapproach. formally assumes that all the mass distributions have The very detailed data, obtained from many indepen- spherical symmetry. On the other hand, it is possible dent techniques, which characterizethe Milky Way, make to achieve a relatively good agreement with the near in- it a unique testing for theories of galactic structure and frared photometric data also using spheroidal models for baryonicinfall.Actually,thisconsiderationhasmotivated the bulge (Kent et al. 1991, Dwek et al. 1995). Thus, we Klypin et al. (2002) to perform an analysis similar to the willdescribethebulgeasaspheroidaldensitydistribution onewepresentinthispaper.Althoughconceptuallyanal- (Dehnen & Binney 1998): ogous to that of Klypin et al. (2002), the procedure we wpliollreusteheiswmhoulcehpmaroarmeedteetrasilpeadcea.nAdsaallorwessutlto, dweeepwlyillebxe- ρb =ρ0 m γ 1+ m γ−β e−m2/rt2 , (1) (cid:18)r (cid:19) (cid:18) r (cid:19) able not only to investigate the viability of the standard 0 0 CDM paradigm when applied to the Galaxy, but also to where constrain a set of parameters that are, on the contrary, held fixed in the work of Klypin et al. (2002). m2 (R2+z2/q2)1/2 , (2) ≡ The paper is organized as follows. In Sect. 2 we de- with R the galactocentric radius and z the height above scribetheingredientsneededforouranalysisandinSect.3 the equatorialplane.Thusthe densityofthe bulgeis pro- we introduce briefly the adiabatic compression theory. portional to r−γ for r << r , to r−β for r << r << r Section4isdevotedtothedescriptionoftheobservational 0 0 t and softly truncated at r = r . Fitting of the model to constraintswehavefortheMilkyWay,whileinSect.5we t the observed infrared photometric COBE/DIRBE data explain how we investigate the parameter space to select yields the values of four of the five bulge parameters only models in agreement with the data. The impact of the different selection criteria on the parameter space is (Dehnen & Binney 1998): discussed in Sect. 6 and the results of our analysis are β =γ =1.8 , q =0.6 , r =1 kpc , r =1.9 kpc . 0 t reportedinSect.7.Section8isdevotedtosomefinalcon- siderations. The density normalization ρ is not determined from 0 thefittingrelation,butitiseasilyrelatedtothetotalmass of the bulge, M . Integrating Eq.(1), one gets 2. Model ingredients bulge Traditional models of spiral galaxies usually include at Mb(m)=0.518Mbulgem1.2 1F1[0.6,1.6, 0.27m2] (3) − leastthree dynamicalcomponents:a spheroidalbulge,an where F is the hypergeometric function and M is 1 1 bulge exponentialdiscandadarkhalo.Thelackofobservational related to the central density ρ0 (in M⊙/pc3) as: dataprecludesfromusingmoredetailedmulti-component mass models since it is not possible to break the degener- M =1.60851 4πqρ . (4) bulge 0 acy among the many parameters involved. However, due × toourprivilegedposition,cinematicandphotometricdata Inthe adiabaticcompressionformalism,allthe galaxy ontheMilkyWayarenumerousenoughtorequiretheuse components are assumed to be spherical. To this aim, it of a multi-component model in order to have a unified is needed to describe the bulge mass distribution with a picture. To this aim, we model the mass distribution in modified “spherical” version of Eq.(3). A simple and rea- the Milky Way introducing five components (the bulge, sonable way to solve this problem is to substitute Eq.(3) the thin and thick discs, the interstellar medium disc and with the following one: the dark halo) that we describe in detail in the following subsections. Msph(r) M f(r) , (5) b ≃ bulge V. F. Cardone and M. Sereno: Modeling theMilky Way 3 f(r)=1 e−1.867r(1+1.543r+0.1898r2+ we use the original flattened density distribution given in − Eq.(8).1 0.6349r3 0.6109r4+0.1491r5 0.01126r6) , (6) Although the simple formula in Eq.(8) may fit well − − the large-scale structure of the stellar discs, it is not able where now r is the usual spherical radius. The spherical to reproduce the smaller scale density fluctuations, which mass distribution in Eq.(5) has been defined so that the are prevalent in the ISM component. Dame et al. (1987) mean density inside the spherical radius r is the same as haveshownthatthere isverylittle interstellarmatter be- the one within the elliptical radius m, M (m), i.e.: b tween the nuclear disc at 200pc and the molecular ring at R = 4 5kpc. These local fluctuations strongly affect Msph(r) M (m) − b = b . the estimation of the Oort constants. Hence, we do not 4/3 π r3 4/3 π q m3 assume an analytical expression for the ISM disc density profile, but we use a third order polynomial interpolation UsingEq.(5)insteadofEq.(3)introducesasystematicer- of the data in Table D1 of Olling & Merrifield (2001)also ror when describing the very inner regions of the Galaxy. including a 23.8% helium contribution by mass. The 3-D Actually, this error is expected to be not a serious one mass distribution of the ISM disc is then evaluated as in since the bulge contribution to the total mass budget of Eq.(9). The ISM disc rotation curve has been evaluated the Galaxyis indeedsmall.Moreover,aswewillseelater, following the method described in Kochanek (2002). most of the observational constraints we will use probe a Tofullycharacterizethediscmodel,wehavetofixthe region of the Galaxy that is so far from the inner bulge geometricalparameters(R ,z )andavalueforthecentral d d dominated region that its dynamical effect could be de- (or the local) surface density. We fix the geometry of our scribed even by modelling this component as a pointlike stellar discs giving their scale-length and scale-height as mass. However, to further reduce this effect, we will use follows (Dehnen & Binney 1998): Eq.(5) for the bulge mass distribution, but we consider the exact rotation curve (Binney & Tremaine 1987): thin disc:R =κR kpc , z =180 pc ; d 0 d v2(R)=4πGq R ρb(m2)m2dm . (7) thick disc:Rd =κR0 kpc , zd =1000 pc . c Z0 R2 (1 q2)m2 where R is the distance of the Sun to the galac- − − 0 p tic centre and κ = (0.30 0.05) a scaling constant To fully characterize the bulge we only need its to- ± (Dehnen & Binney 1998). The exact value of R is quite 0 tal mass, M . Dwek et al. (1995) found M = bulge bulge uncertain, with most of the estimates ranging from (1.3±0.5)×1010 M⊙. 7.0 to 8.5kpc (Kerr & Lynden-Bell 1986, Reid 1993, Olling & Merrifield 2000, Olling & Merrifield 2001). 2.2. The disc Given the importance of this parameter in the modeling oftheGalaxy,wewillexploremodelswithdifferentvalues Contrary to the bulge, the structure of the Milky Way of R . 0 disc is quite easy to investigate given the large amount Weusethefollowingestimateforthelocalsurfaceden- of available data. Disc is made up of three compo- sity (Kuijken & Gilmore 1989): nents, namely the thin and the thick stellar discs and the interstellar medium (ISM) disc. We model the two Σ⊙ =(48 8) M⊙ pc−2 . ± stellar discs with the usual double exponential profile (Freeman 1970, Dehnen & Binney 1998): Σ⊙ accountsforthecontributionofthediscs(bothstellar and ISM), not taking into account the halo contribution. Σ R z The total mass of each sub-disc is fixed specifying the d ρ (R,z)= exp | | . (8) d 2z (cid:18)−R − z (cid:19) fractional contribution of each one to Σ⊙. Using the rela- d d d tions given in Dehnen & Binney (1998), we fix: The total mass of each stellar disc is M = 2πΣ R2. For d d d Σ (R )=14 Σ (R ) , the adiabatic compression, we will adopt a 3-D mass dis- thin 0 thick 0 tribution such that: while, for the ISM disc, the adopted value is +∞ r (Olling & Merrifield 2001): M (r)=2π ρ (R,z)RdRdz . (9) d Z−∞ Z0 d ΣISM(R0)=14.5 M⊙ pc−2 . InEq.(9),M (r)hassphericalsymmetrywhichisnotfor- It is noteworthy that there are also other estimates d mallycorrectsincethediscisahighlyflattenedstructure. of Σ⊙ significantly lower than the one used here Actually, this approximationintroduces a negligible error (Olling & Merrifield 2001, Gerhard 2002). as it is witnessed by the good agreement found between 1 To this aim we use a C++ code kindly provided us by the predictions of the adiabatic compression theory and W. Dehnen which implements a modified multipole technique the numerical simulations (Jesseit et al. 2002). However, developed by Kuijken & Dubinski (1994, see also Dehnen & to evaluate the disc rotation curve and the vertical force Binney 1998). 4 V. F. Cardone and M. Sereno: Modeling theMilky Way 2.3. The halo on the angular momentum of the galactic components (baryons and CDM). The effects of the baryonic infall Observationaldatamaybefittedbyawiderangeofmod- are treated here following the approach of the adiabatic els, even unphysical ones. This is why there are a lot of compression (Blumenthal et al. 1986, Flores et al. 1993, different dark halo models which are claimed to describe Mo et al. 1998). If the disc is assembled slowly, we can wellthedensityprofileofthiscomponent.Toobtainphys- assumethatthehalorespondsadiabaticallytothemodifi- ically interesting models, it is thus important to impose cationsofthegravitationalpotentialanditremainsspher- constraints based on a physical theory of halo formation icalwhilecontracting.Theangularmomentumofthedark and to select models which are both compatible with the matter particles is then conserved and a particle which is data and also physically well motivated. From this point initially at a mean radius r ends up at a mean radius r ofview,numericalsimulationsofgalaxyformationinhier- i where: archicalCDMscenariosareveryhelpfulsincetheypredict the initial shape of the dark matter distribution. In this M (r) r =M(r ) r (15) f i i paper, we assume a NFW profile (Navarro et al. 1997) as initialdarkmatterhalo.ThemainpropertiesoftheNFW being M(r ) the initial total mass distribution within r i i model are: and M (r) the total finalmass within r. M (r) is the sum f f ρs ofthedarkmatterinsidetheinitialradiusri andthemass ρ(r)≡ x (1+x)2 , x=r/rs (10) contributed by the baryonic components. We thus have: M (r)=(1 m )M(r )+M (r) (16) M(r)=4πρsrs3 f(x)=Mvirf(x)/f(c) , (11) f − b i bar x where Mbar(r) is the sum of the contributions from the f(x) ln(1+x) , (12) baryonic components and m is the fraction of the total ≡ − 1+x b mass that ends up in the visible components. Note that c rvir/rs , (13) we are implicitly assuming that the baryons had initially ≡ thesamemassdistributionastheCDMparticlesandthat 4πδ M = thΩ ρ r3 , (14) those which do not form the luminous units still remain vir 3 M crit vir distributed as the CDM. Foragivenrotationcurve,v (R),theangularmomen- where c is the concentration parameter, M the virial c vir tum of the thin disc is: mass and r the virial radius2. The model is fully de- vir scribedby twoindependentparameters,whichweassume rvir J =2π v (R)Σthin(R)R2dR . (17) to be c and Mvir. A correlation between c and Mvir has d Z c d 0 beenfoundinnumericalsimulations(Navarro et al. 1997, Bullock et al. 2001, Colin et al. 2004), but we do not use Theupperintegrationlimitcanbesettoinfinitysincethe such a relation since it is affected by a quite large scatter disc surface density Σd(R) drops exponentially andrvir is ( 25%). much larger than the disc scale-length. We assume Jd to ∼ The NFW model is not the only model proposed be a fraction jd of the initial angular momentum of the to fit the results of numerical simulations. Some au- halo, J (i.e. Jd = jdJ). J can be expressed in terms of a thors (Moore et al. 1998, Ghigna et al. 2000) have pro- spin parameter λ defined as: posed models with a central slope steeper than the NFW one. However, the difference between these models and λ≡J|E|1/2G−1Mv−ir5/2 , (18) the NFW one is verysmallfor radiilargerthan0.5%-1% with E, the total energy of the NFW halo, the virialradiusand it is further washedout by the bary- onic infall. For these reasons,we will not consider models GM2 different from the NFW one. E = virfc . (19) − 2r vir Some simple algebra allows us to rewrite Eq.(17) as 3. Adiabatic compression (Mo et al. 1998): The present day dark matter halo has a different shape with respect to the original NFW model since the gravi- R = 1 jd λr f−1/2f (λ,c,m ,j ) (20) tationalcollapseofthebaryonicmatter,whichformsboth d √2(cid:18)md(cid:19) vir c R d d the bulge and the disc, changes the overall gravitational with: potential of the system. The halo structure is thus modi- fied by the forces of the collapsed baryonsdepending also c 1 1/(1+c)2 2(1+c)−1ln(1+c) f = − − , (21) 2 The virial radius is defined such that the mean density c 2 [c/(1+c) ln(1+c)]2 − withinrvir isδthtimesthemeanmatterdensityoftheuniverse ρ¯ = ΩMρcrit. We assume a flat universe with (ΩM,ΩΛ,h) = f (λ,c,m ,j )=2 ∞e−uu2vc(Rdu)du −1 . (22) (0.3,0.7,0.72) and δth =337 (Bryan & Norman 1998). R d d (cid:20)Z0 vvir (cid:21) V. F. Cardone and M. Sereno: Modeling theMilky Way 5 In Eqs.(20) and (22), m is the fraction of the total mass wherez R tanb,withbthegalacticlatitudeofthefield d 0 0 ≃ competingtothethindisc,u R/R andv isthetotal target.Thisisonlyalowerestimateoftheminimumbary- d vir ≡ circularvelocityatthevirialradiusr .Itisimportantto onicmassinsidethesolarcircleanditisquiteindependent vir stressthatthe rotationcurveenteringEq.(17)isthe total on the density profile of the baryonic components. Using one, i.e. it is: thelatestmeasuredvalueoftheopticaldepthtowardsthe Baade window from the analysis of 52 events in which a v2(r)=v2 (r)+v2 (r) , (23) c c,bar c,DM clump giant is lensed, τ = (2.0 0.4) 10−6 (Popowski et ± × where the first term is simply evaluated given the distri- al.2000),wecanthus selectonly thosesets ofparameters bution of the baryonic components, while the latter is: (R0,Mbulge,Σ⊙) which produce a baryonic mass within R higherthanwhatispredictedbyEq.(25).Notethatwe v2 (r)=G[M (r) M (r)]/r . (24) 0 c,DM f − bar areimplicitly assumingthatallthe observedmicrolensing The full set of equations allows one to determine the events are due to stellar lenses which is true only if there final distribution of the DM particles provided that a isnocompactdarkmatter(suchasMACHOs)inthedisc. model for the density profiles of the baryons has been Shouldthisassumptionnottobetrue,theminimumbary- assigned and the parameters (λ,m ,m ,j ,c,M ) have onic mass shouldbe lowered.However,we stressthat this b d d vir been fixed. We will see later in Sect. 4 that these param- constraintis not very selective so that changing the value eters are not all independent since it is possible to find of Mmin does not affect our results. bar somephysicallymotivatedrelationsamongsomeofthem. Whilst microlensing towards the bulge provides con- It is worth stressing that there is some debate about straints onthe inner Galaxy,satellite dynamics andmod- the validity of the adiabatic compression formalism. eling of the Magellanic Clouds motion probe the Galaxy Jesseit et al. (2002) have found a substantial agreement mass distribution on a large scale ( 50-100kpc). Lin ≃ between the final dark matter distribution in numerically et al. (1995) have used the dynamics of the Magellanic simulatedhaloesandthatpredictedbytheadiabaticcom- Clouds to infer the mass of the Milky Way inside 100kpc pressionapproach.Ontheotherhand,thisresulthasbeen obtainingM(r<100kpc)=(5.5 1) 1011M⊙.Thisisin ± × contradicted on the basis of a set of higher resolution nu- goodagreementwiththevaluefoundbyKochanek(1996) merical simulations recently carried out by Gnedin et al. using escape velocity and motions of the satellite galax- (2004). According to these authors, the standard adia- ies which give(5 8) 1011 M⊙.Taking into accountthe − × batic compression formalism systematically overpredicts different techniques used and a dependence of the results thedarkmatterdensityprofileintheinner5%ofthevirial on the halo modeling, we follow Dehnen & Binney (1998) radius. It is worth noting, however, that only one of the assuming as our constraint: eight simulations considered by Gnedin et al. refers to a galactic(ratherthana cluster)halo.The bottompanelof M(r <100 kpc)=(7.0 2.5) 1011 M⊙ . (26) ± × Fig.4intheirpapershowsthattheadiabaticcompression A third and quite efficient constraint is given by the formalism overpredict the dark matter density less than Oort’s constants defined as: 10% at r/r 0.1, while the error quickly decreases vir ∼ ∼ forlargervaluesofr/rvir.Thiserroris muchsmallerthan A= 1 vc(R) dvc(R) , (27) the uncertainties we have on the observational quantities 2 (cid:20) R − dR (cid:21) sothatweareconfidentthatusingthestandardadiabatic formalism does not introduce any bias in the results. 1 vc(R) dvc(R) B = + . (28) −2 (cid:20) R dR (cid:21) 4. Observational constraints Dehnen & Binney (1998) have reviewed the estimates of We wanttoselectmassmodels ofthe Milky Waythatare theOort’sconstantspresentinliteraturefinallyproposing physicallywellmotivatedandareinagreementwithobser- the following values: vationaldata.We discussinthissectionthe observational A=(14.5 1.5) km s−1kpc−1 , (29) constraints used to test each model. ± Only compact baryonic objects can cause microlens- B =( 12.5 2.0) km s−1kpc−1 , (30) ing events towards the Galactic bulge. The number − ± of microlensing events observed towards the galactic A B =(27.0 1.5) km s−1kpc−1 . (31) − ± bulge (Alcock et al. 2000a, Popowski et al. 2000) deter- From the definitions of the Oort’s constants, it immedi- mines the minimum baryonic mass in the inner Galaxy ately turns out that (A B)R = v (R ). We can thus that can yield the measured value of the optical depth 0 c 0 − replacetheconstraintsonA B withaconstraintsonthe τ. For an axisymmetric mass density which decreases − local circular velocity: moving vertically away from the plane, it is possible to demonstrate that the minimum baryonic mass is v (R )=R (27.0 1.5) km s−1 . (32) c 0 0 (Binney & Evans 2001): × ± ec2z τ The vertical force Kz at some height above the plane Mbmarin = G0 (25) places a condition on the local mass distribution. Using 6 V. F. Cardone and M. Sereno: Modeling theMilky Way K stars as a tracer population, Kujiken & Gilmore (1989, onlyaminoreffectonthiscriterium.Theloweristhevalue 1991) have deduced: of Mmin, the higher is the number of models passing this bar preliminary test, but all of the models added by lowering Kz,1.1 ≡|Kz(R0,1.1kpc)|=2πG×(71±6)M⊙ pc−2 .(33) Mbmarin will be finally excluded by the selection procedure described later. Formally, this estimate depends on the galactic constants The parameters (λ,m ,m ,j ,c,M ) characterize b d d vir R andv (R ),butOlling&Merrifield(2001)haveshown 0 c 0 the dark halo and are needed to solve the adiabatic com- that the result is quite robust against variations in these pression equations. Furthermore, they give scaling rela- parameters. Thus, we can use the previous value to con- tionsbetweenthebaryoniccomponentsandthetotalmass strain our models. distribution. First, we note that m can be expressed as d Finally, another constraint comes from the rotation function of m as: b curve of our Galaxy. We can reconstruct this quantity from the measurements of the velocity field. For an ax- Mthin m = m f m ,(35) d b d b isymmetric galaxy,the radialvelocityrelativeto the local M +M +M +M × ≡ bulge thin thick ISM standardofrest, v , ofa circularorbiting object at galac- r withM ,M andM ,respectively,the totalmass ticcoordinates(l,b)andgalactocentricradiusRisrelated thin thick ISM of the thin, thick and ISM disc. It is also possible to ex- to the circular speed by: press the virial mass M as function of M and m vir thin b vr R0 simply as (Mo et al. 1998): W(R) = v (R) v (R ) (34) c c 0 ≡ sinlcosb R − M M thin thin M = = . (36) with the following relation between R and the distance d vir m f m d d b to the object: Equation (36) simply states that the final mass of the R2 =d2cos2b+R02−2dR0cosbcosl . systemisthesameastheinitialone.Thus,wearenowre- duced to only four parameters, namely (λ,m ,j ,c). We b d Severalstudiesareavailablewithmeasurementsofbothd can further reduce the number of parameters observing and vr for objects which ought to be on a nearly circular that Eqs.(15), (16) and (20) are a system of three in- orbits,sothattheMilkyWayrotationcurvevc(R)canbe dependent equations which can be iteratively solved to reconstructed. We use here the data on HII regions and determine the initial radius r (r), the final mass M (r) i f molecularcloudsinBrand&Blitz(1993)andtheoneson and one of the four parameters, once fixed the remaining a sample of classical Cepheids in the outer disc obtained threeones.Aswewillseelater,whiletherearesomehints byPontetal.(1997).FollowingDehnen&Binney(1998), about the distribution of the other parameters, little is we reject objects with either 155o l 205o or W < 0 known about the value of the concentration c. We have ≤ ≤ or d < 1kpc when vr is very likely dominated by non- thus decided to solve the set of equations with respect circular motions. to (r ,M ,c) having fixed the parameters(λ,m ,j ). The i f b d equations are highly non linear and must be solved itera- tively3, so that, to speed up the calculations,we have im- 5. Exploring the parameter space posed a priori that c should be in the range (5,25) which Toapplytheformalismoftheadiabaticcompressioninor- is a quite conservative estimate for spiral galaxies similar dertohavethepresentdayhalomassprofile,weneedthe to the Milky Way (Jimenez et al. 2003). initialhaloshapeandthetodaydensityprofileofthebary- Toexploreindetailthe spaceofparameters,webuild, onic components. As discussed above, the baryons have for each model with given values of (R0,Mbulge,Σ⊙,κ), been distributed in the bulge and in the three sub-discs a set of models individuated by the values of (λ,m ,j ). b d according to the observational data. We briefly explain how we define the grid. We fix a value We havehoweverstillanindeterminationonthebary- for the spin parameter λ. The distribution of λ for haloes onic components since the Sun distance to the galactic generated in numerical N-body simulations is well ap- centre R0, the total mass of the bulge, Mbulge, the local proximated by a log-normal distribution with param- surface density, Σ⊙, and the discs scale-lengths (fixed by eters nearly independent on the cosmological parame- the scaling constant κ) are known with uncertainties. As ters, halo mass and redshift (Barnes & Efstathiou 1987, a first step, we consider a grid of models with R0 ranging Lemson & Kauffmann 1999, Vitvitska et al. 2002). Using from7.0to8.5kpcinstepsof0.5kpc,Mbulge from0.80to the parameters in Vitvitska et al. (2001), the maximum 14.080to×5160M10⊙Mp⊙c−w2itihnastsetpeps ooff 10..612M5×⊙10p1c0−M2 ⊙an,dΣ⊙κ ffrroomm ca3nMbeouestedal.to(1e9s9t8im)aptreopdoirseecdtlyancafpropmroxEimq.(a2t0e)rtehlautsioanvowidhiinchg 0.25to0.35instepof0.05.Amongthesemodelsweselect theiterativeprocedure.However,theirapproximationhasbeen only the ones which pass the test on the minimum bary- obtained neglecting the bulgeand assuming a single exponen- onic mass within R0. We stress that changing the value tial disc instead of the three sub-discs we are using. We have of Mmin to consider the (quite unlikely) possibility that checkedthattheirformulamayleadtounderestimatestrongly bar somemicrolensingeventsarenotduetostellarlenseshave thevalue of c. V. F. Cardone and M. Sereno: Modeling theMilky Way 7 of the distribution is at λ = 0.035 while there is a 90% onbothv (R)andtheGalacticconstants,whichenterthe c probability that λ is in the range (0.02,0.10). We thus estimate of v (R) through Eq.(34), are not normal. This c let λ change in this range in steps of 0.01. Next, we meansthatahighvalueofχ2foragivenmodelmightbea have to fix a value for m . This parameter is poorly consequence of an intrinsically wrong model or of the not b constrained since we only know that it cannot be larger normaloriginoftheerrors.Furthermore,thedataofPont thantheuniversalbaryonfractionΩ /Ω .Thislatterhas etal.(1997)ontheradialvelocitiesoftheouterdiscclassi- b M been inferred by observations involving completely differ- calCepheids aregivenwithoutany uncertainties,so that, entphysicalprocesses(Turner 2002).Thepowerspectrum for these data points, σ is only determined by the propa- i ofmatterinhomogeneitiesfromobservationsoflarge-scale gationoftheerrorsonthegalacticconstantsanditisthus structure is sensitive to Ω /Ω ; the Two Degree Field underestimated.Sowehavedecidedtostillretaintheχ2- b M GalaxyRedshiftSurveyhasreportedavalueof0.15 0.07 testaselectioncriterium,butwealsoconsiderthemedian ± (Percival et al. 2001).Measurementsoftheangularpower statistics. As shown in Gott et al.(2001; see also Avelino spectrum of the CMBR also provide a very significantes- et al. 2002, Chen & Ratra 2003, Sereno 2003), median timate. The combined analysis in Jaffe et al. (2001) of statistics provide a powerful alternative to χ2 likelihood several data set gives Ω /Ω = 0.186+0.010. We thus let methods. Fewer assumptions about the data are needed. b M −0.008 m change from 0.01 to 0.20 in steps of 0.01. Finally, A proper median statistics assume that (i) experimental b we have to fix j . This parameter also is not constrained results are statistically independent; (ii) there are no sys- d either theoretically or by numerical simulations. On one tematic effects. Statistical errors are not required to be hand, it is reasonable to assume j =m and indeed this either knownorgaussianlydistributed.Since ouranalysis d d seemstobenecessarytofitspiralgalaxiesrotationcurves is based on not normal errors, performing a test without (Mo et al. 1998). On the other hand, numerical simula- using the errors themselves turns out to be a very con- tions have found j /m significantly less than unity. We servative approach.Furthermore,median statistics is also d d have varied this parameter from 0.005 to m in steps of less vulnerable to the presence of bad data and outliers. d 0.01. To compute the likelihood of a particular set of pa- The grid we build in this way is quite detailed. For rameters, we count how many data points are above or each given (R0,Mbulge,Σ⊙,κ) the total number of sets below each model prediction and compute the binomial (λ,m ,j )is 800 1200(dependingonthevalueofm ), likelihoods. Given a binomial distribution, if we perform b d b ∼ − so that the parameterspace is indeed checkedintensively. N measurements, the probability of obtaining k of them To select among this large number of models we use, above the median is given by foreachmodelparameterization,amulti-stepprocedure. 2−NN! First, we solve iteratively the set of Eqs.(15), (16) and P(k)= . (38) k!(N k)! (20) so that we have the full halo mass distribution. We − arethusable toestimate Mf(r =100kpc),the totalmass We count how many of the 115 experimental points are inside r = 100kpc. A model passes to the next step only above the expected velocity rotation curve, and retain a if this value is consistent with the estimate in Eq.(26). modelifthenumberofoverestimatesisbetween43and72. In the second step, we compare the local circular velocity GiventhedistributioninEq.(38),theprobabilitythatthe vc(R0) to the constraint in Eq.(32) rejecting the model median of 115 sorted entries falls in this range is 99.73%. if there is no agreement. Next, the Oort’s constant are Itisworthtonotethatourfinalresultsdonotdepend evaluatedandthe modelisretainedifthe valuesofAand on the sequence of the tests. B areinagreementwith the values givenbyEqs.(29)and (30).Then,wecomputeK andacceptthemodelifthe z,1.1 6. Analysis of the selection criteria resultingvalueisinagreementwiththe estimatereported in Eq.(33). For the surviving models, we estimate the χ2 Before presenting the results of our analysis, it is inter- defined as: esting to investigate at what stage in our selection pro- cedure certain types of models are excluded, i.e. we want χ2 = 1 vc2,data(Ri)−vc2,model(Ri) (37) to study the impact of each criterium on the parameter N σ2 space. To this aim, for a given set of galactic parameters X i (R0,Mbulge,Σ⊙,κ),wefirstselectallthe modelswithcin where σ is the error on the i-th measurements and the i the range (5,25) and then apply to this set of models the sum runs over the N data points. Note that we compute selection criteria introduced in the previous section sepa- the χ2 asthe laststepofourselectionprocedurewhenall rately. The main results of this analysis are presented in the model parameters are fixed so that we do not change Figs.1–5 and discussed below as regard the two param- theirvaluesinordertominimizetheχ2.Wedeemamodel eters entering the adiabatic compression equations, i.e. c as acceptable if χ2 < 1.33. For our data set of N = 115 and m . b entries, this corresponds to a 99.7% confidence level. Actually,asstressedbyOlling&Merrifield(2001),se- – Constraint on M(r < 100 kpc). As Fig.1 shows, the lectingamongdifferentmodelsonthebasisoftheχ2value application of this criterium tends to flatten the his- is not a statistically correct procedure because the errors togram of the c values, being however slightly more 8 V. F. Cardone and M. Sereno: Modeling theMilky Way 14 10 14 10 12 12 ber180 ber 68 ber180 ber 68 Num 46 Num 24 Num 46 Num 24 2 2 0 0 0 0 7.51012.51c517.52022.525 0.04 0.06m0.08 0.1 7.51012.51c517.52022.525 0.04 0.06m0.08 0.1 b b Fig.1. Histogram of the number distribution of c and Fig.3. Same as Fig.1 for the test on the Oort constants. of mb the for the models with (R0,Mbulge,Σ⊙,κ) = (8.5,1.0,54,0.3) and c between 5 and 25. R0 is in kpc, 14 10 12 rMefbeurlsgetoint1h0e1m0 Mod⊙el,sΣp⊙asisninMg⊙th/epct2e.sTthonesMha(dre<dh1i0s0tokgpracm). Number14680 Number 2468 2 14 10 0 0 ber11802 ber 68 7.51012.51c517.52022.525 0.04 0.06m0b.08 0.1 Num 46 Num 24 Fig.4. Same as Fig.1 for the test on Kz,1.1. 2 0 0 7.51012.51c517.52022.525 0.04 0.06m0b.08 0.1 rupted. Furthermore, as we have observed comparing Fig.3 with Figs.1–2, applying only the constraint on Fig.2. Same as Fig.1 for the test on vc(R0). A,B gives results that are consistent with those ob- tained using the two constraints on M(r < 100 kpc) andv (R )sothatanysystematicerrorintheestimate c 0 effective in cutting out models with values of c in of the Oort constants is washed out in our multi-step the tails of the distribution. On the contrary, this cut procedure. tends to suppress the high end of the m histogram, b – ConstraintonK .Thistestworksexcludingmodels z,1.1 onlyretainingthosemodelswithsmallerm .Thislat- b withvaluesofcandm inthetailsofthedistribution. b ter result may be qualitatively explained considering This constraint is very effective when selecting among Eq.(36) which shows that the higher is m , the lower b different galactic parameters leading to reject models is Mvir and thus M(r <100 kpc). with Σ⊙ <49 M⊙/pc2. Actually, the lower is Σ⊙, the – Constraint on v (R ). Fig.2 shows the impact of the c 0 higheristhepercentageofmodelsexcludedbythetest test on the local circular velocity. High values of c on M(r <100 kpc) or by that on the Oort constants. are excluded by this constraint.As regardthe m his- b Thisisaclearevidenceagainstmodelswithlowvalues togram,thisselectioncriteriumturnsouttobealmost ofthelocalsurfacedensityinagreementwithwhatthe orthogonaltothe previousonesincenowlowvaluesof results of the application of the constraint on K z,1.1 m are clearly disfavoured. b claim. – Constraint on the Oort constants. This test turns out – Constraint on χ2. The application of this constraint to be a sort of compromise between the two previous allowstoflattenthehistogramofthecvalueslowering ones. On one hand, it is quite effective in excluding the peak in Fig.5 for low values. However, the high models with very low values of c (look at the lowest end of the histogram is erased thus suggesting that bin), as it is (with much less efficiency) for the con- modelswithveryhighvaluesofcarenotabletofitthe straintonM(r <100kpc). Onthe otherhand,it cuts Milky Way rotation curve. This is not an unexpected away the low end of the m histogram in the same b result since both N-body simulations and fitting of way as the selection criterium based on the value of the adiabatically compressed NFW model to external v (R ) do. This is a quite important result since it c 0 galaxies show that small values of c are best suited to shows that the eventual exclusion of this constraint describegalacticdarkhaloes(Jimenez et al. 2003).As does not alter the final results of the multi-step selec- concernm ,the constraintontheχ2 worksasthaton b tion procedure. The presence of local fluctuations in the local circular velocity selecting models with high the ISM disc density strongly affects the derivatives values of this parameter. This is a reasonable result of the gravitational potential thus leading to possible sincebothconstraintsarerelatedtothesamephysical errors in the evaluation of the Oort constants for a quantity,i.e.the rotationcurve.The medianstatistics givensetofgalacticparameters.One couldthus argue works the same way as the χ2-test, but it is more that it should be better to not use the Oort constants stringent. as a selection criterium, but only their difference and hence the localcircularvelocity.However,the use ofa As a final remark, we want to stress that the obser- third order polynomial interpolation of the measured vational data we have reviewedin Sect.3 are “consensus” ISMdiscdensityalleviatesthisproblemsothatweare valueswith“consensus”errorssothattheselattercannot confidentthattheestimatedvaluesofA,Barenotcor- be treated as “statistical” uncertainties. This is the rea- V. F. Cardone and M. Sereno: Modeling theMilky Way 9 14 10 Table 1. Median values, 68% and 95% regions for the 12 Number14680 Number 2468 misoedxeplrepsasreadmineteurnsitosfosfam10p1l1eMA.⊙T. he total halo mass Mvir 2 Parameter Median 68% range 95% range 0 0 7.51012.51c517.52022.525 0.04 0.06m0.08 0.1 c 6.89 5.49 – 9.45 5.04 – 11.88 b Mvir 8.68 7.53 – 10.20 6.87 – 16.60 Fig.5. Same as Fig.1 for the test on χ2 value. mb 0.08 0.07 – 0.09 0.04 – 0.10 λ 0.06 0.04 – 0.09 0.03 – 0.10 λ′ 0.029 0.026 – 0.035 0.018 – 0.042 son why we have decided to adopt a multi-step selection procedure insteadof the usualχ2 minimization technique basedonthe definitionofaχ2 enteringalltheconstraints Table 2. Median values, 68% and 95% regions for the at the same time. Our filtering approach and the discus- model parameters of sample B. The total halo mass M vir sion presented in this section allow one to avoid all the is expressed in units of 1011 M⊙ problems connected with the statistics of not normal er- rors and makes it possible to understand how the results Parameter Median 68% range 95% range could vary changing one of the constraints. Actually, the c 6.48 5.49 – 7.26 5.08 – 9.75 procedure we have implemented is quite robust since the Mvir 8.44 7.58 – 9.39 7.03 – 11.16 different constraints select different regions of the param- mb 0.08 0.07 – 0.09 0.06 – 0.09 λ 0.06 0.04 – 0.09 0.03 – 0.10 eterspacethusallowingtonarrowtherangesforboththe λ′ 0.029 0.027 – 0.032 0.023 – 0.035 adiabatic compression parameters and the galactic con- stants. 17.5 7. Results 15 Theselectionprocedurewehaveemployedisquiteefficient 12.5 allowingustorejectthemostofthemodels.Sincewehave r used two alternative test as last constraint (the χ2 value e 10 b or the median statistics), we define two samples. Sample m u 7.5 A contains those models passing all the selection criteria N andhavingχ2 <1.33,while Sample B is made outbythe 5 modelspassingthetestonthemedianstatistics.Thefinal 2.5 number of models is 116 in the Sample A and 34 in the 0 Sample B from an initial set of 106. Actually, it turns out that the Sample B is a sub∼set of Sample A, i.e. all 6 8 c10 12 14 the models in Sample B belong to Sample A too. This is Fig.6. Histogram of the number distribution of the con- expected since the median statistics is a more restrictive test than the χ2 analysis. centration parameter c for the models in Sample A and Sample B (shaded histogram). The main results are shown in Figs.(6-9) and summa- rized in Tables 1 and 2. Note that the results obtained from the two samples are in perfect agreementso that we stressingthatthe valuesofc wegetarelowerthanex- will not discuss them separately. We stress that the final pected, but are not unrealistic. Jimenez et al. (2003) samplesofmodelsmaynotbetreatedusingtheusualsta- havefittedtherotationcurvesof400spiralgalaxiesby tistical methods since our selection procedure is based on modelling them with an exponential disc and a dark constraints on different observable that are “consensus” halo obtained by adiabatically compressing the NFW valueswith “consensus”errors.Thatiswhy wedo notre- profile.Their Fig. 1 shows the distribution of the con- portasbestestimateoftheparameterstheirmeanvalues, centration c vs the total mass M . There are indeed but the medians which is a more conservative approach. vir a lot of galaxies with values of c in the same range as Becauseofthis, the quoted68%(95%)rangemustnotbe the one found here. considered as the 1 σ (2 σ) confidence limit, but it is − − 2. In Fig. 7, we plot the distribution of the values simply the range which the 68% (95%) of the values are of the total mass M for the final set of mod- within. With this caveat in mind, we discuss below the vir els. The median value for Sample A (Sample B) is distribution of the various model parameters. 8.68(8.44) 1011 M⊙,andthe95%confidenceinterval × 1. Figure 6 shows the distribution of the values of the rangesfrom5.04(5.08)to6.74(9.75) 1011M⊙.These × concentration parameter c. Small values are clearly valuesarestillinagreementwiththemostrecentmea- favoured so that the median value for Sample A surement of the Milky Way total mass estimated to (SampleB)comesouttobec=6.89(6.44).Itisworth be 1.9+−31..67×1012 M⊙ (Wilkinson & Evans 1999). It is 10 V. F. Cardone and M. Sereno: Modeling theMilky Way 25 40 20 30 r r e 15 e b b m m 20 u u N 10 N 10 5 0 0 8·1011 1·1012 1.M2·10121.4·10121.6·1012 0.04 0.05 0.06 0m.07 0.08 0.09 0.1 vir b Fig.7. Same as Fig. 6 for the total halo mass M . Fig.8. Same as Fig. 6 for m . vir b 25 35 nWoitlekwinosrotnhyi,shhoiwgehveerrt,htahnatutshuealvableuienggivthene mbyosEtvoafnsth&e mber112050 mber12235050 previousestimateslowerthan1012M⊙(see,e.g.,Fig.3 Nu 5 Nu150 in Zaritsky 1999). Sample A also contains few models 0 0 with very high values of M . The value of M we 0.8 1M1.21.41.61.8 49505152Σ53545556 vir vir bulge 0 have obtained may thus be considered quite reason- able. It is also possible to see that a clear correlation Fig.9. Histograms of the number distribution of models existsbetweencandMvir,withthelowervaluesofthe according to the values of Mbulge (1010 M⊙, left panel) concentration parameter c giving rise to the highest and Σ⊙ (M⊙ pc−2, right panel). Shaded regions refer to values of the total mass. This correlation may reflect Sample B. the existence ofsome covarianceamongthe modelpa- rameters in the analysis procedure. 95%range for Sample A does not reject any model. It 3. The distribution of m is shown in Fig. 8. The b is worth noting, however, that values of M in the bulge median value is 0.08 for both Sample A and range0.8 1.4 1010 M⊙ seemstobefavoured.Thisis B, while the 95% range turns out to be 0.07- − × confirmedbyanalysingSampleBthatexcludesmodels 0.09. According to some authors (Mo et al. 1998, with Mbulge > 1.4 1010 M⊙. A similar analysis leads Jimenez et al. 2003,Klypin et al. 2002),m shouldbe × b to the following constraints on the disc local surface written as ε Ω /Ω with ε indicating the efficiency × b M density: of the transfer of baryons from the initial halo to the bulge and disc. If this were correct, our results should 49 M⊙ pc−2 Σ⊙ 56 M⊙ pc−2 ≤ ≤ meanε 37 48%forΩ /Ω =0.186.The efficiency b M is not on≃e an−d this rises the problem ofunderstanding with 54 M⊙ pc−2 as median value. If we subtract the where the missing baryons are. contributionoftheISMdiscsurfacedensity,wegetfor 4. The median value of the spin parameter λ is 0.06 for the stellar disc Σ⋆ 40 M⊙ pc−2 in agreement with both Sample A and B and the 95% range is 0.04 the consensus value≃(Σ⋆ =35 10 M⊙ pc−2) proposed 0.09. Models with low spin are erasedby the selectio−n byOlling&Merrifield(2001).±Only6outof116models procedure.Wedonotreportanyresultforjd sincethis in Sample A have R0 =8.0kpc, while in all the other parameter is found to be degenerate with λ and md, casesit is R0 =8.5kpc so thatwe may safely consider i.e., for fixed values of (mb,R0,Mbulge,Σ⊙,κ), models R0 =8.5kpc as our final estimate of this galactic con- having the same value of λ′ = λj /m give rise to stant. This conclusion is strengthened by noting that d d the same present day halo mass profile. This result is all the models in Sample B have R0 = 8.5kpc. This notunexpectedsinceintheonlyequationcontainingλ valueissomewhathigherthanexpectedsincemostre- and j , Eq.(20), these two parameters appear only in cent estimates predict values in the range 7.0 - 8.0 d λ′. The median value for this latter is λ′ =0.029 with kpc (Reid 1993, Olling & Merrifield 2000). However, a 95% range going from 0.018 to 0.042 for Sample A theestimateofR0 issomewhatmodeldependentsince and from 0.023 to 0.035 for Sample B. its value is linked to the halo flattening. For instance, 5. Figure 9 shows the histogram of the number of mod- Olling & Merrifield (2001) have found that it is pos- > els according to the values of Mbulge and Σ⊙. We can sible to build galaxy models with R0 7.0kpc if ∼ draw some interesting limits. First, we observe that the halo is close to spherical which indeed is our we are not able to significantly constraint the bulge case. Finally, there are no models with κ = 0.30 6 total mass. Indeed, the median value of the distribu- so that we conclude that the discs scale-length is tion turns out to be Mbulge = 1.0 1010 M⊙, but the Rd =0.30 R0 =2.55kpc.Thisis lowerthanthe fidu- × ×