Modelling our Future, Volume 16: Population Ageing, Health and Aged Care (International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics) (International Symposia ... in Economic Theory and Econometrics) PDF
Preview Modelling our Future, Volume 16: Population Ageing, Health and Aged Care (International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics) (International Symposia ... in Economic Theory and Econometrics)
MODELLING OUR FUTURE POPULATION AGEING HEALTH AND AGED CARE International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics Series Editor: William A. Barnett Volume 14: Economic Complexity Edited by W. A. Barnett, C. Deissenberg & G. Feichtinger Volume 15: Modelling Our Future : Population Ageing, Social Security and Taxation Edited by Ann Harding & Anil Gupta International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics Volume 16 MODELLING OUR FUTURE POPULATION AGEING HEALTH AND AGED CARE EDITED BY Anil Gupta Applied Research and Analysis Directorate, Health Canada, Canada Ann Harding National Centre for Social andEconomic Modelling, University of Canberra, Australia Amsterdam – Boston – Heidelberg – London – New York – Oxford Paris – San Diego – San Francisco – Singapore – Sydney – Tokyo Elsevier Radarweg29,POBox211,1000AEAmsterdam,TheNetherlands TheBoulevard,LangfordLane,Kidlington,OxfordOX51GB,UK Firstedition2007 Copyrightr2007ElsevierB.V.Allrightsreserved Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem ortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeanselectronic,mechanical,photocopying, recordingorotherwisewithoutthepriorwrittenpermissionofthepublisher PermissionsmaybesoughtdirectlyfromElsevier’sScience&TechnologyRights DepartmentinOxford,UK:phone(+44)(0)1865843830;fax(+44)(0)1865853333; email:permissions@elsevier.com.Alternativelyyoucansubmityourrequestonlineby visitingtheElsevierwebsiteathttp://elsevier.com/locate/permissions,andselecting ObtainingpermissiontouseElseviermaterial Notice Noresponsibilityisassumedbythepublisherforanyinjuryand/ordamagetopersons orpropertyasamatterofproductsliability,negligenceorotherwise,orfromanyuse oroperationofanymethods,products,instructionsorideascontainedinthematerial herein.Becauseofrapidadvancesinthemedicalsciences,inparticular,independent verificationofdiagnosesanddrugdosagesshouldbemade LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData AcatalogrecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheLibraryofCongress BritishLibraryCataloguinginPublicationData AcataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary ISBN-13: 978-0-444-53005-9 ISBN-10: 0-444-53005-3 ISSN: 1571-0386 ForinformationonallElsevierpublications visitourwebsiteatbooks.elsevier.com PrintedandboundinTheNetherlands 07 08 09 10 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 To my father who taught me the value of education, my mother the spirit of dedication, my wife, the trust in Divine and my daughter, the inner strength. Let the Divine guide all our actions! Introduction to the Series The series International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics publishesqualityproceedingsofconferencesandsymposia.Sinceallarticles published in these volumes are refereed relative to the standards of the best journals, not all papers presented at the symposia are published in these proceedings volumes. Occasionally these volumes include articles that were notpresentedatasymposiumorconference,butareofhighqualityandare relevanttothefocusofthevolume.Thetopicschosenforthesevolumesare those of particular research importance at the time of the selection of the topic. Each volume has different co-editors, chosen to have particular expertise relevant to the focus of that particular volume. William A. Barnett Series Editor Contents About the Editors xiii Notes on Contributors xv Foreword xxvii Preface xxix Chapter 1: Introduction and Overview 1 Anil Gupta and Ann Harding Chapter 2: Population Ageing and Health — Empirical Needs for Effective Foresight 41 Michael C. Wolfson Part I: Health Status Chapter 3: Demographic Change, Health and Health-Risk Behaviour across Cohorts in Britain: Implications for Policy Modelling 59 Maria Evandrou and Jane Falkingham Chapter 4: Measures of Dependency among Older People in Community and Residential Settings in Scotland — Their Development and Application in Resource Forecasting 81 Adam Redpath Chapter 5: Health Status, Health Inequalities and the Ability of Older Australians to Stay in the Labour Force 105 Agnes Walker Part II: Pharmacare and Health Expenditure Issues Chapter 6: Evaluating Catastrophic Drug Expenditure Plans 133 Michael McCracken and Bert Waslander viii Contents Chapter 7: Projections of Commonwealth Health Expenditure in Australia’s First Intergenerational Report 149 Deborah Schofield and George Rothman Chapter 8: The Australian Pharmaceuticals Benefit Scheme and Older Australians: Changes in Government Outlays and Consumer Costs from the 2002–03 Federal Budget Measures 169 Laurie Brown, Annie Abello, Ben Phillips and Ann Harding Chapter 9: Modelling Medicare and Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) Utilisation and Costs 197 Chris Raymond and Brett Parsons Chapter 10: A Microsimulation Model for Pharmacare: Development, Analysis and Policy Applications 213 Vishnu Kapur and Anil Gupta Part III: Financing, Caring and Health Delivery Chapter 11: Microsimulation Model of Medical Insurance Reform for Government Employees and Workers in China 237 Xiong Linping, Li Yiping, Ma Xiuqiang, Meng Hong and Lin Guohong Chapter 12: The View from the Middle: Taking Care of the Young and the Old 261 Chantal Hicks, Geoff Rowe and Steve Gribble Chapter 13: A Simulation Model Concerning Future Needs for Long-term Care of Elderly Persons in Sweden 281 Ma˚rten Lagergren Chapter 14: Providing Income Support Services to a Changing Aged Population in Australia: Centrelink’s Regional Microsimulation Model 297 Anthony King Contents ix Part IV: Health Human Resources Modelling Chapter 15: Building Policy-Relevant Health Human Resource Models 321 Anil Gupta and Kisalaya Basu Chapter 16: What is Behind HRSA’S Projected U.S. Supply, Demand, and Shortages of Registered Nurses 343 Marilyn B. Biviano, Steve Tise and Timothy M. Dall Part V: Data Challenges Chapter 17: Data Quality and Non-Response Effects when Using Logistical Regression in the Welsh Health Survey 377 Ruth Studley Chapter 18: Confidentiality and Anonymised Survey Records: The UK Experience 387 Paul Williamson Part VI: Overview of Existing Microsimulation and Health Human Resources Models Chapter 19: The Search for Ideas among Existing Microsimulation Models 417 Mike McCracken and Anil Gupta Dynamic Microsimulation Models Model 1: MOSART (Dynamic Cross-Sectional Microsimulation Model) 433 Dennis F. Fredriksen and Nils M. Stølen Model 2: DYNAMOD 439 Simon Kelly Model 3: The SAGE Model: A Dynamic Microsimulation Population Model for Britain 443 Maria Evandrou, Jane Falkingham, Paul Johnson, Anne Scott and Asghar Zaidi
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