Modelling our Future, Volume 15: Population Ageing, Social Security and Taxation (International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics) (International ... in Economic Theory and Econometrics)

549 Pages·2007·4.42 MB·English

by  Ann Harding

MODELLING OUR FUTURE
POPULATION AGEING
SOCIAL SECURITY AND TAXATION
International Symposia in Economic Theory and
Econometrics
Series Editor: William A. Barnett
Volume 14: Economic Complexity
Edited by W. A. Barnett, C. Deissenberg & G. Feichtinger
International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics Volume 15
MODELLING OUR FUTURE
POPULATION AGEING
SOCIAL SECURITY AND TAXATION
EDITED BY
Ann Harding
National Centre for Social andEconomic Modelling, University of Canberra,
Australia
Anil Gupta
Applied Research and Analysis Directorate, Health Canada, Canada
Amsterdam – Boston – Heidelberg – London – New York – Oxford
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Introduction to the Series
The series International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics
publishesqualityproceedingsofconferencesandsymposia.Sinceallarticles
published in these volumes are refereed relative to the standards of the best
journals, not all papers presented at the symposia are published in these
proceedings volumes. Occasionally these volumes include articles that were
notpresentedatasymposiumorconference,butareofhighqualityandare
relevanttothefocusofthevolume.Thetopicschosenforthesevolumesare
those of particular research importance at the time of the selection of the
topic. Each volume has different co-editors, chosen to have particular ex-
pertise relevant to the focus of that particular volume.
William A. Barnett
Series Editor
Contents
About the Editors xi
Notes on Contributors xiii
Foreword xix
Preface xxi
Chapter 1: Introduction and Overview 1
Ann Harding and Anil Gupta
Part I: Pension Analysis Using Dynamic Microsimulation
Chapter 2: Can We Afford the Future? An Evaluation of the
New Swedish Pension System 33
Lennart Flood
Chapter 3: A Microsimulation Model of Private Sector
Pensions in France 55
Thierry Debrand, Sophie Pennec and
Anne-Gise`le Privat
Chapter 4: Effects of Demographic Developments, Labour
Supply and Pension Reforms on the Future
Pension Burden in Norway 81
Dennis Fredriksen and Nils Martin Stølen
Chapter 5: Macroeconomic Effects of Proposed Pension
Reforms in Norway 107
Dennis Fredriksen, Kim Massey Heide, Erling Holmøy
and Ingeborg Foldøy Solli
Chapter 6: Adding Private Pensions to the Canadian
DYNACAN Model 143
Richard J. Morrison
viii Contents
Chapter 7: Post-Secondary Education and Training Participation
Rates in Australia in the Next 30 Years:
A Microsimulation Approach 171
Sandra Roussel
PART II: Taxes, Benefits and Labour Supply
Chapter 8: Lifetime Redistribution Through Taxes, Transfers and
Non-Cash Benefits 205
Thomas Pettersson and Tomas Pettersson
Chapter 9: Income Distribution and Redistribution in a
Medium-Term Perspective in Denmark 233
Frederik Hansen
Chapter 10: Population Ageing and Fiscal Sustainability: Integrating
Detailed Labour Supply Models with CGE Models 259
Rolf Aaberge, Ugo Colombino, Erling Holmøy,
Birger Strøm and Tom Wennemo
Chapter 11: Canadian Retirement Behaviour: A Microeconomic
Examination 291
Greg Maloney, Mashood Mirza and Franc-ois Paris
Chapter 12: STINMOD: Use of a Static Microsimulation
Model in the Policy Process in Australia 315
Rachel Lloyd
Chapter 13: The Impact of Canadian Population Ageing on
Federal Personal Income Tax: Microsimulation
Results from 2000 to 2026 335
Weng-Fong Lu, Wei Li and Earl Bailey
Chapter 14: Basic Income or Vital Minimum? A Note on the
Distributive Effects of Possible Reforms of the
Spanish Income Tax 361
Xisco Oliver and Amedeo Spadaro
Contents ix
Part III: Wealth and Services
Chapter 15: Self Provision in Retirement? Forecasting
Future Household Wealth in Australia 387
Simon Kelly
Chapter 16: Household Net Wealth in New Zealand: Implications
for Retirement Incomes 407
Grant M. Scobie and John Gibson
Chapter 17: Population Ageing, Housing Demand and House
Prices in Australia: A Microsimulation Analysis 435
Ross S. Guest
Chapter 18: Population Ageing and State Concessions Policy 459
Karen Piper and Don Siemon
Chapter 19: Future Service Provision at the Local Level:
Demographic Modelling and Forecasting in the
City of Bayside 483
Simon Byth
Chapter 20: Characteristics and Travel Patterns of Older
Australians: Impact of Population Ageing on Tourism 501
Afzal Hossain, Geoff Bailey and Milly Lubulwa
Index 523