Modelling of Environmental Chemical Exposure and Risk PDF
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Modelling of Environmental Chemical Exposure and Risk NATO Science Series ASeriespresentingtheresultsofscientificmeetingssupportedundertheNATOScience Programme. TheSeriesispublishedbylOSPress,Amsterdam,andKluwerAcademicPublishersinconjunction withtheNATOScientificAffairsDivision Sub-Series I. LifeandBehaviouralSciences lOSPress II. Mathematics.PhysicsandChemistry KluwerAcademicPublishers III.ComputerandSystemsScience lOSPress IV. EarthandEnvironmentalSciences KluwerAcademicPublishers TheNATOScienceSeriescontinuestheseriesofbookspublishedformerlyastheNATOASISeries. The NATO Science Programme offers supportfor collaboration in civil science between scientistsof countriesoftheEuro-AtlanticPartnershipCouncil.Thetypesofscientificmeetinggenerallysupported are"AdvancedStudyInstitutes"and"Advanced ResearchWorkshops",andthe NATOScienceSeries collectstogethertheresultsofthesemeetings.Themeetingsareco-organizedbijscientistsfromNATO countriesandscientistsfromNATO'sPartnercountries- countriesoftheCISandCentralandEastern Europe. AdvancedStudyInstitutesarehigh-leveltutorialcoursesofferingin-depthstudyoflatestadvancesin afield. AdvancedResearchWorkshopsareexpertmeetingsaimedatcriticalassessmentofafield,andiden tificationofdirectionsforfutureaction. As aconsequence ofthe restructuring ofthe NATO Science Programmein 1999,the NATO Science Serieswasre-organizedtothefoursub-seriesnotedabove.Pleaseconsultthefollowingwebsitesfor informationonpreviousvolumespublishedintheSeries. htlp:l/www.nato.int/science htlp://www.wkap.nl htlp://www.iospress.nl htlp://www.wtv-books.de/nato_pco.htm SeriesIV:EarthandEnvironmentalSeries- Vol.2 Modelling of Environmental Chemical Exposure and Risk editedby Jan B.H.J. Linders RIVM,Bilthoven,TheNetherlands Kluwer Academic Publishers Dordrecht / Boston / London PublishedincooperationwithNATOScientificAffairsDivision ProceedingsoftheNATOAdvancedResearchWorkshopon ModellingofEnvironmentalChemicalExposureandRisk Sofia,Bulgaria 5-9October1999 AC.I.PCataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheLibraryofCongress. ISBN0-7923-6775-8 PublishedbyKluwerAcademicPublishers, PO.Box17,3300AA Dordrecht,TheNetherlands. SoldanddistributedinNorth,CentralandSouthAmerica byKluwerAcademicPublishers, 101 PhilipDrive, Norwell,MA02061, U.S.A. Inallothercountries,soldanddistributed byKluwerAcademicPublishers, PO.Box322,3300AH Dordrecht,TheNetherlands. Printedonacid-freepaper AllRightsReserved ©2001 KluwerAcademicPublishers Nopartofthematerialprotectedbythiscopyrightnoticemaybereproducedorutilizedin anyformorbyanymeans,electronicormechanical,includingphotocopying, recordingor by any information storage and retrieval system, without written permission from the copyrightowner. CONTENTS Foreword IX Acknowledgements xiii LECTURES PesticideFate Models and theiruse. FOCUS Activities . Jan B.H.J Linders Models used in the USA forthe Evaluation ofPesticide Exposure, Hazard and Risk Assessment 17 MarkH. Russell Quality assurance in environmental modelling 31 GyulaDura andElisabeth Laszlo Possibleapproachesforpesticides environmental impactmanagement .............. 39 M.G. ProdanchukandAlexandrP Kravchuk Pesticide leachingmodelling validation A RecentEuropean Experience 47 Marnik Vanclooster Evaporation ofpureliquids from open surfaces 61 Fredric C.ArnoldandAlfredJ Engel Application ofUSES for estimation ofPECofpesticides and hazardassessmentfor aquaticenvironment 73 Veska Kambourova andKostaVassilev Modellingofoperatorexposure 79 AntonellaFaitandBengtS. Iversen Use ofalarm model in accidental pollution ofDanubeRiver Casestudy. 91 Silvia Chitimiea andAurelVarduca Results ofthe use oftwoenvironmental models for pesticides ranking by hazard 97 Fina Kaloyanova. Gyula Dura andVeska Kambourova VI Recentdevelopments inenvironmental modelling at Trent University, Canada 105 Ian Cousins, MattMacLeod, Eva WebsterandDon Mackay MACRO: apreferential flow model to simulatepesticide leaching and movementtodrains 117 SabineBeulke, Colin D. Brown andNicholasJ Jarvis A scientific and technological framework for evaluating comparativerisk inecologicalrisk assessments 133 John M. Johnston Comparingtwo alternative pollutantdispersion models and actual data within an environmental health information Processing System (EHIPS) 151 BorisBalter, M. Stal'naya, andVictorEgorov RBCAToolkit: Comprehensive Risk-based modelling system for soil and groundwaterclean-up 165 JohnA. Connor, FE. Richard, L. Bowers andThomasE. McHugh Danish EPA use ofmodels for assessmentofpesticides mobility 183 Christian DeibjergHansen An optimization model for the control ofregional airquality in Europe 193 MarkusAmann, Chris Heyes, MarekMakowski andWolfgangSchopp Spatial refinementofregional exposure assessment 205 VolkerBerding, FrankKoormann, Stefan Schwartz, Jan-Oliver WagnerandMichaelMatthies COUNTRYREPORTS The future ofthe environmental modeling in risk assessmentin Slovenia CountryReport 223 BorisKolar Vll Environmental ExposureofPlantProtection Products PortugueseExperience 227 FlaviaAlfarroba Environmental CleanupProgram in Hungary Hungarian Report 231 Eva Deseo ModellingExperiences in the SlovakRepublic Country Report 241 Martin Murin DojranskoEzero (DojranLake) Program 1999-2001 243 VladimirKendrovski SomeMethodological Aspects ofSoil DataReceiving And Usefor the Environmental Prognosis CountryReport 245 GaZina V.Motuzova Risk Assessmentand Risk ManagementofIndustrial Chemicals in Poland CountryReport 251 JanA. Krajewski ModellingofEnvironmental Chemical Pollution and Perspectives ofExposureand Risk Assessment In Ukraine Nationalreport 255 LeonardDobrovolsky Overview on Environmental Situation in Albaniaand SomeIssues in the Field of"Modelling" Albanian experience 261 Tanja Floqi, QecamedinKodra, GencLuarasiandBujarReme CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 271 FOREWORD Lessonone: A modelalwaysisasimplificationofreality. Moreandmoremathematicalmodelsareusedto esimatethe concentrationsofdifferent substances in the environment. An estimation ofthe concentrations is needed from a governmental point ofview with respect to the questions whether or not to register a substance as apesticide orto allow asubstance on the market. The established estima tion are used in the risk assessment procedures as part ofthe risk quotient. The risk a quotient may be determined as aPEC over NEC ratio or as TER, where PEC stands for Predicted Environmental Concentration and NEC for No Effect Concentration and TER for toxicity - exposure ratio. Generally the modelling concerns the estimation of thePECindifferentcompartmentsofthe environment, e.g. water, soil,air,biota. Especiallyinthe EuropeanUnionandthe UnitedStates ofAmericaandCanadanumer ous examples ofmodels to determine the PEC are available nowadays. The NATOAd vanced Research Workshop on Modelling ofEnvironmental Chemical Exposure and Riskwasorganisedaroundfourmaintopics: Outlineofthe characteristicsofthemodels; Overviewofthe applicationofthemodelsconcerned; Comparison ofestimated concentrations with the measured concentrations in the fieldand Credibilityofmodelling. According to currentguidelines in differentparts ofthe globe exposure assessmenthas to be carried outfor all kinds ofsubstances, pesticides, including agricultural and non agriculturalpesticides, new and existing chemicals notbeing pesticides, soil pollutants, accidental pollution, etc. The participants to the workshop stressed that especially the purpose ofthe model should be the driving force when interpreting the results ofthe modelcalculations. Modelusagesshouldnotbetakenbeyondtheirpurpose.Inaddition itwaspointedoutthatmodels always are an abstractionofreality, because ofsimplify ing assumptions being made to keep the models within calculable limitations ofscien tific knowledgeorcomputerperformance. Severaltypes ofmodelsandmodelling systemswerepresentedduringtheworkshop: • FOCUS-activities of the European Union, directorate-general Health and Con sumerProtection, concerningthe determinationofPECsindifferentenvironmental compartments like soil, groundwater and surface water; the models included here aree.g. PRZM,MACRO,TOXSWA, paperpresentedbyLinders; • Exposure models used in the USA, particularly at the Environmental Protection Agency, paper by Russell, including screening models like SCI-GROW and GENEEC, but also more sophisticated models as there are PRZM, TIGEM and EXAMS; • Modelling systems presentedincluded EUSES 1.0, arisk assessment systemin the EU for new and existing chemicals, paper by Berding; USES 2.0, incorporating EUSES 1.0 and the Netherlands' evaluating system for pesticides, paper by Kam- IX x bourova; more toolkit modelling systems as e.g. the multimedia fugacity models, paperbyCousins, andtheRCBA toolkit,paperbyMcHugh; • Specific models were dealt with in more detail like the MACRO-model used for estimating the concentration in groundwater or drainage water in cracked soils (heterogeneousflow), papersbyBeulkeandHansen; • In addition, models for environmental health were presented like the EHIPS in Russia, paper by Balter, and also operator exposure calculations using the EUROPOEMdatabases, paperbyFait; • Finally, the possibilities ofGeographic Information Systems (GIS) were explored in several model applications, e.g. in the USA and Russia as well as in Italy and Germany. Other items involved the quality ofdata and models, paper by Dura, the validation of models, paper by Vanclooster, the relation to human health perspectives, paper by Kravchuk, and several case studies, papers byArnold, Chitimiea and Kalyoanova, pre sented by Dura. A specific framework for ecological modelling was presented by Johnston, whilethe compartmentairwaspresentedbyAmann. In the breakout sessions working groups discussed several items related to model use and developmentas wellas co-operativeactionsonaregionalbasis. The subjects ofthe discussionare listedbelow: • Modeladvantagesandlimitations; • Comparativeassessmentofmodelsandtheiruse inrepresentedregions; • Recommendationsfortheuse ofmethods for specificenvironmentalcompartments andconditions; • Recommendations forfuture collaborationinmodelvalidation; • Recommendationsonfuture researchneedsonmodelling. Some ofthe mainrecommendations maybe formulated as follows, whileamore exten sive overview of the recommendations is presented in the chapter Conclusions and Recommendations. With respect to validation two different types ofmodel validation were identified: in ternal and external validation. External validation is defined here as the comparison of modelpredictions withmeasured values. Itis importantthatthe measureddata used for the validation are properly scrutinised. The spatial and temporal resolution ofthe data mustbeconsideredas wellasthe dataquality. To determine the relative importance ofindividual model input parameters andthe un certainty ofmodel predictions; detailed sensitivity and uncertainty analyses should be undertakenaspartofthe modelvalidation. It is recommended that several databases should be compiled to aid the process of model validation. To avoid the duplication ofmeasurements and to facilitate the rapid collection of measured data, it is recommended that a database containing measured concentrations iscompiled. To improve the validation status ofmodels and the knowledge on validation and vali dation activities, itisrecommended that internationalmodellingefforts shouldbebetter co-ordinated. Itis recommended thatexpertgroups beestablished to undertake internal and external validation ofexisting models and to recommend future model improve ments. Anexampleofsuchan expertgroup is the"FOCUS-group" setup to investigate the largenumberofavailablepesticideleachingandsurface watermodels. Xl Considering future research needs on modelling it is recommended to investigate the tools required for analysis ofuncertainty. One ofthe key aspects of perfonning risk assessmentsisthe quantificationofthechanceforaspecificsituationto occurinreality. Itwasconsideredofmajorimportancetodevelopthisareainthenearfuture. Itwas also recommended to develop protocols for carrying outmodel validation, espe ciallyhowtocarryoutamodelvalidation. Otherareasoffuture developmentwerecon sideredtobethepossibilityofsimultaneousexposuretomixturesofsubstances, thesite specific scenarios incase were lowertierrisk assessments indicate thepotential ofrisk. The application of probabilistic risk assessment methods needs further development, becausetheaspectofoccurrence ofriskseems to beclearer to·the riskmanager. In ad dition a comparison shouldbe carriedoutbetweenprobabilistic modelling and risk as sessmentsmakinguseofassessmentfactors. Finally, it was strongly recommended to use all possibilities'to exchange information between modellers and risk assessors, especially the information gap between eastand west was indicated clearly. Training and a specific website to exchange software were considered useful. It was also recommended to organise an additional workshop on these subjects to give scientists and governmental agencies the possibility to catch-up withother,moreexperiencedrisk assessors.
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