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Modelling Methodology for Physiology and Medicine Second Edition Modelling Methodology for Physiology and Medicine Second Edition Ewart Carson Centre for Health Informatics City University London London, UK Claudio Cobelli Department of Information Engineering University of Padova Padova, Italy AMSTERDAM(cid:1)BOSTON(cid:1)HEIDELBERG(cid:1)LONDON(cid:1)NEWYORK(cid:1)OXFORD PARIS(cid:1)SANDIEGO(cid:1)SANFRANCISCO(cid:1)SINGAPORE(cid:1)SYDNEY(cid:1)TOKYO Elsevier 32JamestownRoad,LondonNW17BY 225WymanStreet,Waltham,MA02451,USA Firstedition2001 Secondedition2014 Copyright©2014,2001ElsevierInc.Allrightsreserved Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,electronicor mechanical,includingphotocopying,recording,oranyinformationstorageandretrievalsystem,without permissioninwritingfromthepublisher.Detailsonhowtoseekpermission,furtherinformationabout thePublisher’spermissionspoliciesandourarrangementwithorganizationssuchastheCopyright ClearanceCenterandtheCopyrightLicensingAgency,canbefoundatourwebsite:www.elsevier.com/ permissions. ThisbookandtheindividualcontributionscontainedinitareprotectedundercopyrightbythePublisher (otherthanasmaybenotedherein). Notices Knowledgeandbestpracticeinthisfieldareconstantlychanging.Asnewresearchandexperience broadenourunderstanding,changesinresearchmethods,professionalpractices,ormedicaltreatment maybecomenecessary. Practitionersandresearchersmustalwaysrelyontheirownexperienceandknowledgeinevaluatingand usinganyinformation,methods,compounds,orexperimentsdescribedherein.Inusingsuchinformation ormethodstheyshouldbemindfuloftheirownsafetyandthesafetyofothers,includingpartiesfor whomtheyhaveaprofessionalresponsibility. Tothefullestextentofthelaw,neitherthePublishernortheauthors,contributors,oreditors,assume anyliabilityforanyinjuryand/ordamagetopersonsorpropertyasamatterofproductsliability, negligenceorotherwise,orfromanyuseoroperationofanymethods,products,instructions,orideas containedinthematerialherein. BritishLibraryCataloguing-in-PublicationData AcataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData AcatalogrecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheLibraryofCongress ISBN:978-0-12-411557-6 ForinformationonallElsevierpublications visitourwerbsiteatstore.elsevier.com ThisbookhasbeenmanufacturedusingPrintOnDemandtechnology.Eachcopyisproducedtoorder andislimitedtoblackink.Theonlineversionofthisbookwillshowcolorfigureswhereappropriate. Preface Mathematicalmodelling is now widely adopted inphysiology andmedicine tosup- port the life scientist and clinical worker. However, good modelling practice must be based upon sound methodology. This is the focus of this book. It builds upon the basic idea of an integrated methodology for the development and testing of mathematical models. It covers many specific areas of methodology in which important advances have taken place over recent years and illustrates the applica- tionofgoodmethodologicalpracticeinkeyareasofphysiologyandmedicine. Over the past few decades, several books have been written on mathematical modelling in physiology and medicine. Some have focused on methodology, while others have centred around a specific area of physiology and medicine. Over the past 20 years, we ourselves have contributed extensively tothis field, including our volume from the early 1980s entitled Mathematical Modelling of Metabolic and Endocrine Systems: Model Formulation, Identification and Validation, which com- bined methodological detail with a demonstration of its applicability in relation to metabolicsandendocrinology. This present volume follows suit by combining advances in methodology with demonstration of its applicability. It is one of two volumes on the theme of model- ling included in this Biomedical Engineering series. The other one, which is cur- rently in production, provides an introduction to modelling in physiology. The essence of our other volume is summarized in the first chapter of this book. This book serves as both a stand-alone volume and a complementary work. For the reader who has some experience in modelling, this volume will provide an accessi- ble account of recent advances in the field. For the reader who has absorbed the messagesoftheintroductoryvolume,thechaptershereinbuildlogicallyuponthose insights. This book has been designed to appeal to all those who wish to advance their knowledge of good modelling practice. It will be useful to postgraduate students and those in the final year of study who have chosen modelling specialities as part of biomedical engineering or medical or health informatics courses. It is equally designed tomeetthe needs of advanced practitioners and researchers in the field of modellingasitappliestophysiologyandmedicine. Although formally an edited text, this volume is the collaborative work of two teams in London and Padova who together have extensive experience in communi- catingtheseideasandconceptstoawiderangeofaudiences,includingundergradu- ate and postgraduate students, and researchers and professionals across a spectrum of disciplines from engineering and informatics to medicine and related clinical xviii Preface professions. Hence, this book has been produced as an integrated work, meant as tutorialinstyleandcontainingreferences attheendofthevolume. In writing this volume, we thank those of our colleagues in our teams who have chosen to work with us on this project. Their support and encouragement has been greatly appreciated, and without their efforts this volume would not exist. We also wish tothankourfriends andcolleagues, whoover manyyearshaveencouraged us todevelopourmodellingideas,whetherfromtheirperspectivesasfellowengineers and computer scientists or from their invaluable viewpoints as physiologists and clinicians. There are many that we would wish to recognize, including Riccardo Bonadonna, Derek Cramp, Ludwik Finkelstein, Antonio Lepschy, and Peter So¨nksen. Finally, we thank Joseph Bronzino, Editor-In-Chief of this Biomedical Engineering Series, and Joel Claypool, Jane Phelan, and colleagues at Academic Press for their encouragement, support, and tolerance in working with us to see our ideascometofruition. July2000 EwartCarsonandClaudioCobelli London,EnglandandPadova,Italy Preface to the Second Edition In the 12 years that have passed since the first edition was published, considerable progress has occurred in this field of modelling in physiology and medicine. Advances have taken place in modelling methodology, availability of new data, and increased application, both in terms of numbers of studies and new areas of application. In light of this progress we have been invited to produce this second edition.Accordingly,thisvolumerepresentsasignificantexpansionofthefirstedi- tion(from13to23chapters)inorderthatcoveragecanbegiventothese important developments.Inaddition,almostallofthematerialisnew. We shouldfirstliketothankalloftheauthorswho havechosentoworkwithus on this project. In addition, we express our appreciation to Sarah Lay, Erin Hill- Parks, Cari Owen, and Fiona Geraghty of the Elsevier editorial team for their tech- nicalexpertiseandsupport. September2013 EwartCarsonandClaudioCobelli Ludlow,EnglandandPadova,Italy List of Contributors Steen Andreassen Center for Model-Based Medical Decision Support (MMDS), AalborgUniversity,Denmark James B. Bassingthwaighte Department of Bioengineering, University of Washington,Seattle,WA,USA Riccardo Bellazzi Department of Electrical, Computer and Biomedical Engineering,UniversityofPavia,Pavia,Italy B. Wayne Bequette Department of Chemical & Biological Engineering, RensselaerPolytechnicInstitute,Troy,NY,USA Alessandra Bertoldo Department of Information Engineering, University of Padova,Padova,Italy Roberto Burattini Previously at the Department of Information Engineering, PolytechnicUniversityofMarche,Italy;DepartmentofVeterinaryandComparative Anatomy, Pharmacology and Physiology, Washington State University, Pullman, Washington,USA EwartCarsonCentreforHealthInformatics,CityUniversityLondon,London,UK Andrea Caumo Dipartimento di Scienze Biomediche per la Salute, Universita´ di Milano,Milano,Italy Claudio Cobelli Department of Information Engineering, University of Padova, Padova,Italy Filippo Cona Department of Electrical, Electronic, and Information Engineering, UniversityofBologna Chiara Dalla Man Department of Information Engineering, University of Padova, Padova,Italy Giuseppe De Nicolao Dipartimento di Informatica e Sistemistica, University of Pavia,Pavia,Italy xxii ListofContributors Barbara Di Camillo Department of Information Engineering, University of Padova,Padova,Italy Francis J Doyle, III Department of Chemical Engineering, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA; Institute for Collaborative Biotechnologies,UniversityofCaliforniaSantaBarbara,SantaBarbara,CA,USA Fulvia Ferrazzi Institute of Human Genetics, Friedrich-Alexander-Universita¨t Erlangen-Nu¨rnberg,Erlangen,Germany Dan S. Karbing Respiratory and Critical Care Group (rcare), MMDS, Aalborg University,Denmark Søren Kjærgaard Anaesthesia and Intensive Care, Aalborg University Hospital, Denmark Boris Kovatchev Center for Diabetes Technology, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; Department of Systems and Information Engineering, UniversityofVirginia,Charlottesville,VA,USA Paolo Magni Dipartimento di Ingegneria Industriale e dell’Informazione, Universita` degliStudidiPavia,Pavia,Italy Elisa Magosso Department of Electrical, Electronic, and Information Engineering, UniversityofBologna Lorenzo Pasotti Dipartimento di Ingegneria Industriale e dell’Informazione, Universita` degliStudidiPavia,Pavia,Italy Stephen Patek Center for Diabetes Technology, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; Department of Systems and Information Engineering, UniversityofVirginia,Charlottesville,VA,USA Morten Gram Pedersen Department of Information Engineering, University of Padova,Padova,Italy Maria Pia Saccomani Department of Information Engineering, University of Padova,Padova,Italy Gianluigi Pillonetto Department of Information Engineering, University of Padova,Padova,Italy Italo Poggesi Model-Based Drug Development, Janssen R&D, Via Michelangelo Buonarroti,ColognoMonzese(MI),Italy ListofContributors xxiii Alberto Redaelli Dipartimento di Elettronica, Informazione e Bioingegneria (DEIB),PolitecnicodiMilano,Milan,Italy Stephen E. Rees Respiratory and Critical Care Group (rcare), MMDS, Aalborg University,Denmark MaurizioRocchettiIndependentConsultant,Rho,Milan,Italy Maria Rodriguez-Fernandez Department of Chemical Engineering, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA; Institute for Collaborative Biotechnologies, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA,USA Francesco Sambo Department of Information Engineering, University of Padova, Padova,Italy Zimi Sawacha Department of Information Engineering, University of Padova, Padova,Italy Bernhard Schrefler Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering,UniversityofPadova,Padova,Italy Monica Simeoni Biopharm and ImmunoInflammation, Clinical Pharmacology, Quantitative Sciences, GlaxoSmithKline, Stockley Park West, Uxbridge, Middlesex,UK Giovanni Sparacino Dipartimento di Ingegneria dell’Informazione, Universita` di Padova,Padova,Italy Peter C. St. John Department of Chemical Engineering, University of California SantaBarbara,SantaBarbara,CA,USA Gianna Toffolo Department of Information Engineering, University of Padova, Padova,Italy Mauro Ursino Department of Electrical, Electronic, and Information Engineering, UniversityofBologna Paolo Vicini Pharmacokinetics, Dynamics and Metabolism, Pfizer Worldwide Research and Development, San Diego, CA; Pharmacokinetics, Dynamics and Metabolism, Pfizer Worldwide Research and Development, Science Center Drive, SanDiego,CA,USA xxiv ListofContributors Emiliano Votta Dipartimento di Elettronica, Informazione e Bioingegneria (DEIB),PolitecnicodiMilano,Milan,Italy Ruoting Yang Institute for Collaborative Biotechnologies, University of California SantaBarbara,SantaBarbara,CA,USA Susanna Zucca Dipartimento di Ingegneria Industriale e dell’Informazione, Universita` degliStudidiPavia,Pavia,Italy

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