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Modeling Road Accident Data of Saudi Arabia PDF

106 Pages·2015·1.73 MB·English
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Modeling Road Accident Data of Saudi Arabia A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE EDUCATIONAL POLLCIES COUNCIL IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS For the degree MASTER OF SCIENCE By Abdulrahman Alshammari Advisor Dr. Rahmatullah Imon Ball State University Muncie, Indiana May 2015 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Foremost, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my advisor Professor Dr. Rahmatullah Imon for the continuous support of my thesis study, for his patience, motivation, enthusiasm, and immense knowledge. His guidance helped me in all the time during my analysis and writing the report. I could not have imagined having a better advisor and mentor for my thesis other than him. Besides my advisor, I would like to thank the rest of my thesis committee: Dr. Munni Begum and Dr. Yayuan Xiao for their encouragement, insightful comments and patience. I am thankful to all my classmates for their kind supports. Last but not the least; I would like to thank my family: my mother, my brothers and sisters, for supporting me throughout my life. Abdulrahman Alshammari March 25, 2015 Table of Contents CHAPTER 1 1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Saudi Arabia Road Accident Data 1 1.3 Outline of the Study 10 CHAPTER 2 11 ESTIMATION OF MISSING VALUES, CROSS VALIDATION AND ARIMA MODELS IN TIME SERIES 2.1 Estimation of Missing Values 11 2.2 Estimation of Missing Values in Time Series 13 2.3 Robust Estimation Methods 16 2.4 Bootstrap 21 2.5 Stochastic Time Series Modeling 25 2.6 Cross Validation in Time Series 39 2.7 Computation 43 CHAPTER 3 44 ESTIMATION OF MISSING VALUES BY ROBUST EM AND BOOTSTRAP ALGORITHM FOR SAUDI ARABIA ROAD ACCIDENT DATA 44 3.1 Estimation of Missing Values Error! Bookmark not defined. 3.2 Evaluation of Estimation of Missing Values 50 CHAPTER 4 59 SELECTION OF ARIMA MODELS FOR SAUDI ARABIA ROAD ACCIDENTS DATA 59 4.1 Total Number of Road Accidents in Saudi Arabia 59 4.2 Total Number of Road Accidents in Riyadh 62 4.3 Total Number of Road Accidents in Mecca 64 4.4 Total Number of Road Accidents in Eastern Province 66 4.5 Total Number of Road Accidents in Medina 68 4.6 Total Number of Road Accidents in Al Qassim 70 4.7 Total Number of Road Accidents in Tabuk 73 4.9 Total Number of Road Accidents in Asir 75 4.10 Total Number of Road Accidents in Albahih 77 4.11 Total Number of Road Accidents in Northern Borders 79 4.12 Total Number of Road Accidents in Al Jouf 81 4.13 Total Number of Road Accidents in Ha'il 84 4.14 Total Number of Road Accidents in Najran 86 4.15 Total Number of Road Accidents in Jizan 88 4.17 Result Summary 90 CHAPTER 5 92 CONCLUSIONS AND DIRECTION OF FUTURE RESEARCH 92 5.1 Conclusions 92 5.2 Direction of Future Research 93 REFERENCES 94 List of Tables Chapter 1 Table 1.1: Total Number of Road Accidents in Saudi Arabia 2 Table 1.2: Total Number of Road Accidents in Riyadh 2 Chapter 2 Table 2.1: Specification of ARIMA Models 39 Chapter 3 Table 3.1: Estimates of Missing Values for the Year 2003 Using Conventional Methods 44 Table 3.2: Estimates of Missing Values for the Year 2004 Using Conventional Methods 44 Table 3.3: Estimates of Missing Values for 2003 Using EM Robust Time Series Methods 47 Table 3.4: Estimates of Missing Values for 2004 Using EM Robust Time Series Methods 48 Table 3.5: Estimates of Missing Values for 2003 Using EM Robust Time Series Methods 48 Table 3.6: Estimates of Missing Values for 2004 Using EM Robust Time Series Methods 49 Table 3.7: A Comparison Between Exact and Estimated Values of the Total Number of Road Accidents for 2004 in Saudi Arabia 50 Table 3.8: Total Number of Road Accidents in Saudi Arabia after the Missing Value Estimation 51 Table 3.9: Total Number of Road Accidents in Different Region of Saudi Arabia after the 52 Missing Value Estimation Chapter 4 Table 4.1: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in Saudi Arabia 60 Table 4.2: Significance of ARIMA models fir the Number of Road Accidents in Saudi Arabia 61 Table 4.3: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in Riyadh 62 Table 4.4: Significance of ARIMA models fir the Number of Road Accidents in Riyadh 63 Table 4.5: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in Mecca 64 Table 4.6: Significance of ARIMA models fir the Number of Road Accidents in Mecca 65 Table 4.7: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in E Province 66 Table 4.8: Significance of ARIMA models fir the Number of Road Accidents in E Province 67 Table 4.9: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in Medina 69 Table 4.10: Significance of ARIMA models fir the Number of Road Accidents in Medina 69 Table 4.11: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in Qassim 71 Table 4.12: Significance of ARIMA models fir the Number of Road Accidents in Qassim 72 Table 4.13: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in Tabuk 73 Table 4.14: Significance of ARIMA models fir the Number of Road Accidents in Tabuk 74 Table 4.15: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in Asir 75 Table 4.16: Significance of ARIMA models fir the Number of Road Accidents in Asir 76 Table 4.17: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in Albhih 77 Table 4.18: Significance of ARIMA models fir the Number of Road Accidents in Albahih 78 Table 4.19: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in N Borders 80 Table 4.20: Significance of ARIMA models fir the Number of Road Accidents in N Borders 80 Table 4.21: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in Al Jouf 82 Table 4.22: Significance of ARIMA models fir the Number of Road Accidents in Al Jouf 83 Table 4.23: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in Ha’il 84 Table 4.24 Significance of ARIMA models fir the Number of Road Accidents in Ha’il 85 Table 4.25: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in Najran 86 Table 4.26: Significance of ARIMA models fir the Number of Road Accidents in Najran 87 Table 4.27: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in Jizan 88 Table 4.28: Significance of ARIMA models fir the Number of Road Accidents in Jizan 89 Table 4.29 Selected Models for Saudi Arabia Road Accident Data 90 List of Figures Chapter 1 Figure 1.1: The Political Map of Saudi Arabia with Different Regions 2 Figure 1.2: Time Series Plot of Total Road Accidents in Saudi Arabia 5 Figure 1.3: Time Series Plot of Total Road Accidents in Riyadh 5 Figure 1.4: Time Series Plot of Total Road Accidents in Mecca 5 Figure 1.5: Time Series Plot of Total Road Accidents in Eastern Province 6 Figure 1.6: Time Series Plot of Total Road Accidents in Medina 6 Figure 1.7: Time Series Plot of Total Road Accidents in Al Qassim 6 Figure 1.8: Time Series Plot of Total Road Accidents in Tabuk 7 Figure 1.9: Time Series Plot of Total Road Accidents in Asir 7 Figure 1.10: Time Series Plot of Total Road Accidents in Albahih 7 Figure 1.11: Time Series Plot of Total Car Accident in Northern Borders 8 Figure 1.12: Time Series Plot of Total Car Accident in Al Jouf 8 Figure 1.13: Time Series Plot of Total Car Accident in Ha’il 8 Figure 1.14: Time Series Plot of Total Car Accident in Najran 9 Figure 1.15: Time Series Plot of Total Car Accident in Jizan 9 Chapter 2 Figure 2.1: A Schematic Diagram of Bootstrap and Simulation 23 Chapter 3 Figure 3.1: Time Series Plot of Original and Estimated Road Accidents in Saudi Arabia 54 Figure 3.2: Time Series Plot of Original and Estimated Road Accidents in Riyadh 54 Figure 3.3: Time Series Plot of Original and Estimated Road Accidents in Mecca 54 Figure 3.4: Time Series Plot of Original and Estimated Road Accidents in E Province 55 Figure 3.5: Time Series Plot of Original and Estimated Road Accidents in Medina 55 Figure 3.6: Time Series Plot of Original and Estimated Road Accidents in Al Qassim 55 Figure 3.7: Time Series Plot of Original and Estimated Road Accidents in Tabuk 56 Figure 3.8: Time Series Plot of Original and Estimated Road Accidents in Asir 56 Figure 3.9: Time Series Plot of Original and Estimated Road Accidents in Albahih 56 Figure 3.10: Time Series Plot of Original and Estimated Road Accidents in N Borders 57 Figure 3.11: Time Series Plot of Original and Estimated Road Accidents in Al Jouf 57 Figure 3.12: Time Series Plot of Original and Estimated Road Accidents in Ha’il 57 Figure 3.13: Time Series Plot of Original and Estimated Road Accidents in Najran 58 Figure 3.14: Time Series Plot of Original and Estimated Road Accidents in Jizan 58 Chapter 4 Figure 4.1: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in Saudi Arabia 59 Figure 4.2: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in Riyadh 62 Figure 4.3: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in Mecca 64 Figure 4.4: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in E Province 66 Figure 4.5: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in Medina 68 Figure 4.6: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in Qassim 71 Figure 4.7: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in Tabuk 73 Figure 4.8: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in Asir 75 Figure 4.9: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in Albahih 77 Figure 4.10: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in N Borders 79 Figure 4.11: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in Al Jouf 82 Figure 4.12: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in Ha’il 84 Figure 4.13: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in Najran 86 Figure 4.14: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in Jizan 88

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my family: my mother, my brothers and sisters, for supporting me throughout my life Figure 1.14: Time Series Plot of Total Car Accident in Najran. 9 .. regression or in time series we assume a model and that should have a models that can be used to forecast a time series on the basis of its past.
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