Modeling Applications in the Airline Industry

291 Pages·2010·12.6 MB·English

by  Ahmed Abdelghany

Modeling Applications in the
Airline Industry

Ahmed Abdelghany and Khaled Abdelghany
Modeling ApplicAtions in the Airline
industry
This page has been left blank intentionally
Modeling Applications in the
Airline industry
AhMed AbdelghAny
Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, USA
&
KhAled AbdelghAny
Southern Methodist University, USA
© Ahmed Abdelghany and Khaled Abdelghany 2009
All rights reserved. no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval
system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying,
recording or otherwise without the prior permission of the publisher.
Ahmed Abdelghany and Khaled Abdelghany have asserted their right under the copyright,
Designs and Patents Act, 1988, to be identified as the authors of this work.
published by
Ashgate publishing limited Ashgate publishing company
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British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
Abdelghany, Ahmed F.
Modeling applications in the airline industry.
1. Airlines--Management--simulation methods.
i. title ii. Abdelghany, Khaled.
387.7'068-dc22

ISBN: 978-0-7546-7874-8 (hbk)
978-0-7546-9725-1 (ebk)
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Abdelghany, Ahmed F.
Modeling applications in the airline industry / by Ahmed Abdelghany and Khaled
Abdelghany.
p. cm.
includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-7546-7874-8 (hardback) -- ISBN 978-0-7546-9725-1 (ebook)
1. Airlines--Management. 2. Aeronautics, commercial--computer simulation.
3. Aeronautics, com mercial--planning. 4. operations research. i. Abdelghany, Khaled.
ii. title.
he9780.A228 2009
387.7068'4--dc22
2009017554
contents
List of Figures vii
List of Tables xi
1 introduction to Airline Management 1
SeCtIon I DeMAnD MoDeLIng AnD ForeCAStIng
2 Modeling the choice of travel options 21
3 passenger demand Modeling and Forecasting 39
SeCtIon II SCheDuLIng oF reSourCeS
4 Fleet Assignment 53
5 Aircraft routing 79
6 crew planning 89
7 gate Assignment 109
8 baggage handling 119
9 Flight planning and Fuel Management 129
SeCtIon III revenue MAnAgeMent
10 introduction to revenue Management 141
11 demand Forecasting for revenue Management 155
12 No-show Rate and Overbooking 173
13 seat inventory control for Flight-based revenue
Management systems 181
14 Seat Inventory Control for Network-based Revenue
Management systems 189
vi Modeling Applications in the Airline Industry
15 Ticket Distribution 205
16 sales contracts 213
17 code-share Agreements 221
SeCtIon Iv IrreguLAr oPerAtIonS MAnAgeMent
18 ground delay programs and collaborative decision
Making 229
19 impact of disruptions on Air carrier schedule 243
20 Airline schedule recovery 253
Index 275
list of Figures
Fiigguurree 11..11 tthhee ddiiffffeerreenntt ppllaayyeerrss iinn tthhee aaiirr ttrraannssppoorrttaattiioonn iinndduussttrryy 3
Figure 1.2 decision levels of airline management 5
Figure 1.3 Changes in the main market characteristics due to the 9/11
terrorist attack in the domestic US market 6
Figure 1.4 processes considered in the planning and operations phases
of the airlines 9
Figure 1.5 Example of a hub-and-spoke network structure 10
Figure 1.6 Example of time bank for hub-and-spoke airline 11
Figure 1.7 Example of a point-to-point network structure 12
Figure 1.8 example of an aircraft route 14
Figure 1.9 example of a crew trippair 15
Figure 2.1 Three hypothetical itineraries between Seattle (SEA) and
Miami (MIA) 23
Figure 2.2 the characteristics of the hypothetical itineraries between
Seattle (SEA) and Miami (MIA) 24
Figure 2.3 Sketch of a traveler’s choice set 24
Figure 2.4 three hypothetical itineraries between point A and point b 31
Figure 3.1 Example of network coverage for two competing airlines 40
Figure 3.2 Modeling framework for airline competition analysis and
demand modeling 43
Figure 3.3 Example of a hypothetical network of three air carriers 44
Figure 4.1 Time-staged flight network 59
Figure 4.2 Time-staged flight network with aircraft assignment 60
Figure 4.3 Inbound and outbound flights at a hypothetical station for
three aircraft types 61
Figure 4.4 illustration of an interconnection node at a station 62
Figure 4.5 illustration of the last interconnection node at a station 62
Figure 4.6 illu stration of the sizing constraints 64
Figure 4.7 illustration of the aircraft count at the interconnection node 67
Figure 4.8 Example of a through flight 67
Figure 4.9 example of three aircraft overnight at ord and lAX 68
Figure 4.10 example of a time-window arc 69
Figure 4.11 example of interconnection nodes that connect the time-
window arc 70
Figure 4.12 Example of fleet assignment with crew consideration 72
Figure 4.13 Example of a terminator flight 73
Figure 5.1 example of an aircraft route 80
Figure 5.2 Example of a practical and efficient aircraft turn 80
viii Modeling Applications in the Airline Industry
Figure 5.3 example of aircraft rotation 82
Figure 5.4 Example of through traffic 83
Figure 5.5 representation of the aircraft routing solution 84
Figure 5.6 representation of the aircraft routing solution with dummy
variables 85
Figure 5.7 Many connection possibilities at the hub station compared
to a spoke 86
Figure 6.1 example of a typical crew trippair 90
Figure 6.2 Possibilities of crew connections at hub and spoke 92
Figure 6.3 representation of the crew pairing solution 93
Figure 6.4 the trippairs matrix with the set of dummy trippairs 94
Figure 6.5 Example of the trippairs matrix, where each flight is only
covered in one trippair 96
Figure 6.6 Example of the trippairs matrix, where each flight is only
covered in one trippair, and the trippairs are sorted based
on their cost 97
Figure 6.7 selecting a subset t from the current trippairs matrix 97
Figure 6.8 trippairs matrix with the hybrid approach 98
Figure 7.1 example of trajectories of connecting passengers/baggage
at airport terminal 110
Figure 7.2 Example of the flight assignment for a hypothetical set of
gates 111
Figure 7.3 Example of eight flights assigned to gates 114
Figure 8.1 Sketch of the baggage-sorting facility 120
Figure 8.2 illustrative example of the activity selection algorithm 123
Figure 8.3 General framework for the baggage-handling model 125
Figure 8.4 example of trajectories of connecting baggage at the airport
terminal 126
Figure 9.1 The framework of the flight planning process using the
decomposition approach 133
Figure 9.2 Example of profile optimization 134
Figure 9.3 examples of different fuel-loading patterns along the aircraft
route 136
Figure 10.1 A s ketch of the seats on a flight classified into full-fare
seats and discounted seats 142
Figure 10.2 Booking pattern over time for business travelers and leisure
travelers 143
Figure 10.3 Example of a demand-price curve for flight seats
(one fare) 144
Figure 10.4 Example of a demand-price curve for flight seats
(two fares) 144
Figure 10.5 Possible decisions on selling a seat on a flight 145
Figure 10.6 Seat availability for two booking classes 148
List of Figures ix
Figure 10.7 representation of sequential nesting and seat availability for
each booking class 149
Figure 10.8 Another graphical representation of sequential nesting 149
Figure 10.9 example of a mix of parallel nesting and sequential
nesting 150
Figure 10.10 Example of a point-to-point network structure 151
Figure 10.11 Example of a hub-and-spoke network structure 151
Figure 11.1 The flights of a hypothetical airline 156
Figure 11.2 graphical representation of the different snapshots
recorded for a hypothetical itinerary-fare class on a
flight that is departing in 180 days’ time 157
Figure 11.3 graphical representation of the different snapshots
recorded for a hypothetical itinerary-fare class on a
flight that is departing in 90 days’ time 157
Figure 11.4 example of overestimated snapshots 158
Figure 11.5 example of underestimated snapshots 158
Figure 11.6 Average origin-destination demand in the domestic us
market 160
Figure 11.7 example of a hypothetical itinerary 162
Figure 11.8 representation of the last 52 observations of the demand 162
Figure 11.9 Most recent 52 observations of demand 163
Figure 11.10 A change in the schedule of the itinerary 164
Figure 11.11 example of change of aircraft size 164
Figure 11.12 probability distribution of demand 166
Figure 11.13 example of two different probability distributions of demand
with different levels of dispersion 166
Figure 11.14 graphical representation of the expected seat revenue 170
Figure 12.1 example of the probability distribution of the number
of no-shows for a hypothetical flight 176
Figure 12.2 the relationship between the probability distribution of
the number of no-shows and the number of overbooked
tickets 178
Figure 13.1 example of the probability distribution for the demand of
the high-fare class 182
Figure 13.2 graphical representation of the expected seat revenue 183
Figure 13.3 expected seat revenue for each demand stream 185
Figure 14.1 Example of a hub-and-spoke network structure 190
Figure 14.2 A hypothetical air carrier network 195
Figure 15.1 the role of distribution channels for the air carriers 207
Figure 15.2 The current practice of air carriers’ ticket distribution 209
Figure 16.1 illustration of incremental revenue calculation 215
Figure 17.1 the routes of a hypothetical air carrier participating in
multiple code-share agreements 222