Mobility and Traffic in the 21st Century

330 Pages·2001·7.41 MB·English

by  Georg Bauer

Franz Mayinger (Editor)
Mobility and Traffic in the 2pt Century
Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg GmbH
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Engm• eer•m g OIUIE IJ8IAIIY
http://www.springer.delengine/
Franz Mayinger (Editor)
Mobility and Traffic
in the 21 Century
st
With 112 Figures and 29 Tables
, Springer
Professor Dr.-Ing. Franz Mayinger
Bayerische Elite-Akademie
PrinzregentenstraBe 7
80538 Miinchen
Germany
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Mobility and traffic in the 21st century 1 Franz Mayinger (ed).
ISBN 978-3-642-07487-5 ISBN 978-3-662-04392-9 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-3-662-04392-9
ISBN 978-3-642-07487-5
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Preface
Mobility is a prime need of mankind. It represents one of the most important
essentials of life. It is the basis not only of economical and technical but also
of cultural development. Life without high grade of mobility is inconceivable
today. But our present high status of mobility also creates problems too. We
experience traffic break down on the roads in densely populated areas and
the transport of goods on the road is a major concern of traffic engineering.
Traffic is consuming a large part of our energy resources and is contributing to
a not negligible extent to the pollution of the environment. Will the volume of
traffic still exponentially grow in the 21st century as it was the case in the 20th
century or will the possibilities for virtual mobility calm down our demands
for the physical one? Traffic claims a high toll on human life but without
the existing grade of mobility the present population could not survive. So
there are many questions with respect to the development and the problems
of mobility in the 21st century.
A group of students of the "Bayerische Elite-Akademie", instructed and
accompanied by tutors from universities and industry, applied themselves to
several subjects and problems of mobility and transport in this century. The
"Bayerische Elite-Akademie" is a common institution of industry and uni
versities in Bavaria. It supplements the education offered by the universities
and provides special courses to improve leadership qualities to the best stu
dents of the Free State of Bavaria. Per year up to 30 students are carefully
chosen from among all Bavarian universities. An essential part of the stu
dent's activities within the academy is to work co-operatively and in teams
on a subject of general economic and social interest. In 1999/2000 "Mobility
and Transport in the 21st Century" were subjects of this work. The results
elaborated by the project teams are presented in this book.
The students applied themselves to 4 sub-topics within the general frame
of mobility:
• Bimodal transport systems: a solution for the impending collapse of east-
west traffics?
• Mobility and transport in agglomeration areas.
• Analogies of physical and virtual traffic.
• How communication technologies influence the future of mobility - new
perspectives in the field of telemedicine.
VI Preface
During the period of 1970 to 1997 passenger traffic has increased 100%
and good traffic 120% in the European Union. Since 1989 Germany has gained
additional open boarders, namely with the Czech Republic and with Poland
and has thus become an important gateway between East and West. This pro
duced further considerable strain on the transportation infrastructure of the
countries. After having analysed choices of various transport modes, Bimodal
Transport Systems are discussed as a way out from the impending collapse
of East-West-Traffic. Bimodal means a close interaction between road-based
goods transport and carriage by rail.
Mobility is a necessary condition for economic development, which is espe
cially true for densely populated areas. The second chapter of this book eval
uates the Nuremberg region in Germany as a traffic agglomeration area, par
ticularly affected by ongoing changes for a number of reasons. In co-operation
with institutions for traffic engineering and the local authority districts, cri
teria and visions were developed for a better regional management structure
and a sustainable development of personal transport.
Telecommunication technology and it's capability of creating virtual mo
bility provides interesting solutions to mobility problems. One question for
example is howe-commerce will reduce the demand of physical mobility.
Another interesting subject is the use of telecommunications technology to
provide health care services to patients who are geographically separated from
physicians or other healthcare providers. The major benefit of telemedicine
is the levelling of regional differences of medical service. These and other
questions are discussed in the third chapter of the book.
We all are aware of traffic jams on our highways. There are several the
ories to model the development of traffic jams on real highway, but the stu
dents asked themselves the question, whether "traffic break-down" can also
occur on virtual highways when tele-information, tele-communication and
electronic-business will exponentially grow in the future. A study conducted
by Forrester Research is forecasting an e-commerce sales growth by more
than one order of magnitude within the next 5 years. Congestion in the elec
tronic network can arise due to routers not being able to cope with too many
arriving data packets. The chapter describes what may happen, when one
wants to transmit too many information-packets through the net and by this
it helps to understand the characteristics of data traffic.
The book is intended to be of interest to both the industrial and the aca
demic community, and it is also for good use to graduate and undergraduate
students. It is directed at the group of people who are interested in future
traffics politics in general and in traffic engineering especially.
The editor wants to express his thanks to all authors but especially also to
the tutors, who spent a lot of time and effort in this project and contributed
to the success of this book. The Springer-Verlag deserves special thanks for
the fine presentation and make-up of this book.
Munich, October 2000 F. Mayinger
Contents
1 Intermodal Transport Systems: A Solution for the Im
pending Collapse of East-West Traffic?
Tutors: Dr.-Ing. E.h. Wolfram Martinsen and Dipl.-Ing. Adalbert
Zillmer
Authors: Georg Bauer, Alice Fiser, Daniel Schneider. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.1 Introduction...... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1.1.1 Mobility and Transport Economics in the 2pt Century. . . . . . 3
1.1.2 Project Outline. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
1.2 The Consequences of the Eastern Expansion for Goods Transport. 7
1.2.1 The Eastern Enlargement - a German Interest. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
1.2.2 Implications for the Traffic Situation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 10
1.2.3 The Traffic Situation between Germany and the Czech Republic 15
1.2.4 Conclusions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 18
1.3 The Macroeconomic Aspects of Goods Transport. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 19
1.3.1 Theory of Efficient Market Solution. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 20
1.3.2 Theory of Market Collapse Due to External Costs .......... 21
1.3.3 The Extent of External Costs of Goods Transport in Germany 22
1.3.4 Initial Attempts to Improve the Efficiency of the Transporta-
tion Market. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 26
1.3.5 Conclusions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 35
1.4 Creating a Criteria Catalog for the Choice of Transport Modes and
its Practical Application by a Czech Transport Company. . . . . . . .. 38
1.4.1 Existing Transport Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 39
1.4.2 Creating a Criteria Catalog for Selecting a Transport Mode .. 43
1.4.3 Weighting the Criteria and Influence Parameters Using the
Analytical Hierarchy Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 53
1.4.4 Application of the Criteria Catalog by a Czech Transport
Company .............................................. 55
1.4.5 Conclusions and Perspectives on the Future. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 66
1.5 Summary......... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 69
References ......... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 76
VIII Contents
2 Mobility and Transport in Agglomeration Areas -
The Nuremberg Region in the 21st Century as an Example
Tutors: Prof. Dr.-Ing. Hans-Hermann Braess and Dipl.-Ing. Heinrich
Baumgartner
Authors: Stefan Bornemann, Michael Forster, Barbara Kniippel, Ingo
Schmidt. .. . . . . .. . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . .. .. . . ... 80
Executive Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 80
2.1 Introduction and Vision. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 83
2.1.1 Future Mobility Needs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 84
2.1.2 Challenges to Agglomerations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 95
2.1.3 The Nuremberg Region in a European Context ............. 104
2.1.4 Trends and Vision ...................................... 110
2.2 Traffic Analysis ............................................. 112
2.2.1 Presentation of the Nuremberg Region .................... 112
2.2.2 Stakeholders in Transport ................................ 117
2.2.3 Transport Planning ..................................... 127
2.2.4 Transport in the Nuremberg Region ....................... 137
2.3 Solutions and Strategies ...................................... 153
2.3.1 Change in Thinking ..................................... 153
2.3.2 Institutional Measures ................................... 159
2.3.3 Economic Measures ..................................... 164
2.3.4 Technological Measures .................................. 171
2.4 Conclusions and Recommendations ............................ 176
References ..................................................... 180
3 How Communication Technology Influence the Future of
Mobility - New Perspectives in the Field of Telemedicine
Tutor: Prof. Dr. Alf Zimmer
Authors: Oliver Minge, Julia Schaefer, Helmut Schoenenberger, Bettina
Sonnemann .................................................... 187
3.1 Executive Summary ......................................... 187
3.2 Mobility .................................................... 189
3.2.1 Definition .............................................. 189
3.2.2 Motivation for Mobility .................................. 190
3.2.3 Costs of Mobility ....................................... 191
3.2.4 Consequences .......................................... 193
3.3 Communication ............................................. 195
3.3.1 Definition .............................................. 196
3.3.2 Sender~Receiver~Relationship in Written
or Spoken Communication ............................... 196
3.3.3 Implications of the Modern Communication Model .......... 197
3.3.4 Consequences .......................................... 198
3.4 Combining Mobility and Communication Effectively ............. 199
3.4.1 Substitution ............................................ 199
Contents IX
3.4.2 Integration ............................................. 201
3.4.3 Enabling .............................................. 201
3.5 Telemedicine ................................................ 203
3.5.1 Benefits of Telemedicine ................................. 203
3.5.2 History of Telemedicine ~ Highlights ...................... 204
3.5.3 Current Trends in Telemedicine. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205
3.5.4 Telemedicine Reflected in the Context of Mobility ........... 206
3.5.5 Technical Demands Set by Telemedicine ................... 207
3.6 Mobile Communication Networks .............................. 209
3.6.1 Evolution of Communication Networks .................... 209
3.6.2 Structure of Cellular Networks ........................... 211
3.6.3 Terrestrial Cellular Networks ............................. 214
3.6.4 Satellite Networks ...................................... 218
3.6.5 The Global Positioning System ........................... 218
3.6.6 Conclusion ............................................. 221
3.7 NOAH ~ a Mobile Emergency Care System ..................... 221
3.7.1 Introduction ........................................... 222
3.7.2 Disadvantages of Serial Emergency Management Process. . . . . 223
3.7.3 NOAH ~ Emergency~Organisation Active Aid System ....... 224
3.7.4 Emergency Management Process with NOAH [56] ........... 224
3.7.5 Results of NOAH System [55] ............................ 225
3.7.6 Other Mobile Emergency Care Systems .................... 226
3.7.7 Further Integration ofthe Rescue Chain ~ Further Integration
of Virtual and Physical Mobility. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 228
3.8 The Telemonitoring Example ................................. 230
3.8.1 Telemedicine as an Enabler of Physical Mobility ............ 230
3.8.2 The Growing Need for New Ways of Health Care Delivery ... 230
3.8.3 The Basic Idea of Telemonitoring ......................... 231
3.8.4 The Telemonitoring Equipment ........................... 232
3.8.5 Management of Heart Failure Through Telemonitoring ...... 235
3.8.6 An Outlook on Telemonitoring ........................... 238
References ..................................................... 239
4 Physical and Virtual Mobility
Analogies Between Traffic and Virtual Highways
Tutor: Prof. Dr. Klaus Mainzer
Authors: Martin Buchs, Dennis Kundisch, Patricia Pyrka ............ 243
4.1 Introduction: A Traffic Break-Down ........................... 243
4.2 The Idea Behind Complex Systems ............................ 244
4.3 Vehicular Traffic ............................................ 248
4.3.1 Mobility and Increasing Traffic ........................... 248
4.3.2 Empirical Facts about Vehicular Traffic .................... 251
4.3.3 Selected Traffic Phenomena .............................. 254
4.3.4 Collection of Traffic Data ................................ 256
X Contents
4.3.5 Modeling Car Traffic .................................... 258
4.3.6 Conclusion ............................................. 260
4.4 Data Traffic ................................................ 262
4.4.1 Introduction ........................................... 263
4.4.2 The Internet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 264
4.4.3 Congestion on the Internet. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 270
4.4.4 Data Traffic Characteristics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 270
4.5 Analogies Between Highway Traffic and Data Traffic ............. 278
4.5.1 Similarities and Differences of Cars and Data Packets ....... 278
4.5.2 The Fundamental Diagram ............................... 279
4.5.3 Self-similarity .......................................... 282
4.6 Application ................................................. 282
4.6.1 Introduction ........................................... 283
4.6.2 Situation Analysis ...................................... 285
4.6.3 Proposed Solution Approaches ............................ 289
4.6.4 Conclusion - Message for Management ..................... 309
4.7 Summary and Concluding Remarks ............................ 310