Minerals Handbook 1988–89: Statistics and Analyses of the World’s Minerals Industry

344 Pages·1988·8.126 MB·English

by  Phillip Crowson (auth.)

MINERALS
HANDBOOK
1988-89
MINERALS
HANDBOOK
1988-89
Statistics and Analyses
of the
World's Minerals Industry
Phillip Crowson
M
S
TOCKTON
P R E S S
(c) Phillip Crowson, 1988
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1988 978-0-333-44642-3
All rights reserved. No part of this publication
may be reproduced or transmitted, in any form or
by any means, without permission.
Published in the United States and Canada by
STOCKTON PRESS, 1988
15 East 26th Street, New York, N.Y. 10010
The Library of Congress has catalogued this serial
publication as follows:
Minerals handbook (New York, N.Y.)
Minerals handbook/compiled by Phillip Crowson. - 1982-83- -
New York : Van Nostrand Reinhold, c1982-
(v. : ill. ; 23 cm.)
Biennial.
Issued by: Gulf Pub. Co., 1984-85-
Also published in the U.K. by Macmillan.
ISSN 0265-3923 = Minerals handbook.
1. Mines and mineral resources - Handbooks, manuals, etc. I.
Crowson, Phillip. II. Gulf Publishing Company.
TN151.M49 333.8'5-dc19 85-645605
AACR 2 MARC-S
Library of Congress 8512
ISBN 978-0-935859-54-6
First published in the United Kingdom by
MACMILLAN PUBLISHERS LTD (Journals Division), 1988
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
Minerals handbook. - 1988-89-
1. Mineral industries & trades -
Statistics - Serials
338.2'0212
ISBN 978-1-349-09688-6 ISBN 978-1-349-09686-2 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-09686-2
ISSN 0265-3923
CONTENTS
1-4
Introduction 1-4
Author's Acknowledgements 4
Summary Tables
Table 1 Production and Reserves by Main Geo-political
Grouping 5
Table 2 The 'Adequacy' of Reserves 7
Table 3 The Growth of World Reserves of Selected Products 9
Table 4 Value of Contained Metal in 1985-86 in
Percentages Annual Production 10
Table 5 Import Dependence: European Community, Japan,
United Kingdom, and United States 11
Table 6 The Historic Growth of Total Mine Production 12
Table 7 Comparative Growth Rates of Consumption in
the 1970s: United Kingdom, European Community,
Japan and United States 13
Table 8 Comparative Growth Rates of Consumption in First
Half of the 1980s United Kingdom, European
Community, Japan and United States 14
Table 9 South African Shares of World Reserves and
Production 15
Detailed Tables
Aluminium, Bauxite and Alumina 16
Antimony 29
Arsenic 37
Asbestos 43
Barytes 49
Beryllium 54
Bismuth 60
Boron 66
Cadmium 72
Chromium 79
Cobalt 86
Copper 93
Fluorspar 101
Gallium 108
Germanium 112
Gold 117
Indium 124
Industrial Diamonds 128
Iron Ore 135
Lead 141
Lithium 150
Magnesium 156
Manganese 167
Mercury 174
Molybdenum 179
Nickel 186
Niobium 194
Phosphate 200
Platinum Group 208
(v)
Page
Potash 216
Rare Earth Minerals &M etals 223
Rhenium 230
Selenium 235
Silicon 241
Silver 249
Sulphur 257
Tantalum 263
Tellurium 270
Tin 275
Titanium 285
Tungsten 296
Uranium 304
Vanadium 310
Vermiculite 316
Zinc 321
Zirconium 330
Sources and Notes 337
(vi)
INTRODUCTION
This handbook originally developed from a study on Non-Fuel and
Miner~ls
Foreign Policy prepared in 1978 for the Royal Institute of International
Affairs. The study was published in a period when discussion of mineral
procurement policies was emerging from specialist groups into a broader
forum. The statistical supplement apparently met a need and it was
therefore updated and reissued in an expanded form in early 1980. The first
edition of this handbook was a further extension of that original work. Its
aim was to provide a snapshot of the basic characteristics of the supply and
demand of thirty-seven minerals and metals. The second edition was expanded
to include data for a further nine commodity groups to give the forty-six
covered in this third edition. This time all the data have been updated and
revised and the tables extended to include capacities. The handbook is not
intended as a substitute for the many excellent statistical publications
listed in the Appendix, from which its data are derived, but merely as an
introductory guide mainly for the non-specialist. It draws together in a
convenient form information that is scattered over a very wide range of
primary sources. The numerous statistical caveats, qualifications and foot
notes accompanying the original sources of the statistics have been omitted.
The tables would otherwise have been swamped in a sea of footnotes.
One purpose of the handbook is to contain sufficient basic data on all
aspects of the minerals and metals included to allow informed debate on
mineral policies. Another is to give reasonably comprehensive introductions
to each material covered.
The earlier versions emphasised that ' the real world is invariably far more
complex than simple tables might suggest, and the tendency to latch on to
published statistics as if they were unshakeable truths should be avoided'.
To illustrate this point, 'statistics on reserves of any mineral involve
extensive inference from incomplete data and extensive judgement, not just
about the technical characteristics of ore deposits, but also about their
economics'. Even many estimates of production and trade carry wide margins
of error.
The book's layout is straightforward; the introductory summary tables are
followed by separate sections on each of the forty-six minerals. The
summary tables mainly bring together data contained in the detailed sections
but with the addition of a short table (Table 3) showing the historic growth
in reserves of several minerals. The other tables summarise aspects of
mineral industries that influence public policy. Thus Table 2 shows two
measures of the adequacy of reserves. Table 5 contains estimates of import
dependence in the main areas, and Table 9 shows South Africa's role in the
world mineral industries. South Africa is singled out for a separate
summary table solely because the West's apparent dependence on South Africa
has dominated much of the discussion about mineral supplies.
The individual sections on each mineral follow a broadly common format. The
varying units of the sources have been converted into metric equivalents for
all the metals, although imperial and apothecaries' measures are the
conventional measures in many cases. Prices are, however, quoted in their
original units. The main sources of the statistics used are summarised in a
section at the end of the book. The available data, and the specific
characteristics of each mineral explain any variations from the standard
pattern, which is as follows.
1
World Reserves and Reserve Bases
The statistics are taken mainly from publications of the US Bureau of Mines.
The figures refer mainly to 1984/85 with some of the tables updated to 1985-
86. Separate estimates are shown for most relevant countries which are
divided into three broad groups: Developed, Developing and Centrally
Planned. The Developed Countries are arbitrarily defined as all OECD
Members plus South Africa, the Centrally Planned are USSR, the Comecon
Countries, the People's Republic of China, North Korea, North Vietnam,
Albania, Mongolia and Cuba. Developing Countries are all those not included
in the other two categories.
Reserves are defined as:
Recoverable materials in the reserve base that can be economically extracted
or produced at the time of determination.
The Reserve base is more broadly described as:
In-place demonstrated (measured plus indicated) resource from which reserves
are estimated, and including those resources that are currently economic
(reserves), marginally economic (marginal reserves), and some of those that
are currently subeconomic (subeconomic reserves).
Where practicable details are given on the narrower definition, but in one
or two instances both measures are included. Usually a footnote gives a
broader estimate of total resources, which include mineral deposits that are
not presently economic. As noted earlier, changes in the basic technical
and economic assumptions can dramatically alter estimates of reserves; there
is no objective measure. Summary Table 3 demonstrates that estimated
reserves in most instances rose over time at least as fast as production, at
least until the early 1980s when markets were adverse.
World Production
Again there are separate figures for each producer country, subdivided into
three broad groupings. The sources are broadly similar to those for
reserves. The figures are averages for 1985 and 1986. For some commodities
figures are given for the mined product and for its main derivatives. Thus
there are separate tables for bauxite, alumina and aluminium.
Productive Capacity
For the major producing countries estimates of productive capacity are
included for the first time. Most refer to 1985. They are mainly taken
from recently published data from the US Bureau of Mines.
Secondary Production
Where recycled material is important, and the statistics are available, a
separate table shows average supplies in the main areas in 1985/86.
The Adequacy of Reserves
Two estimates are given, based mainly on the earlier tables. The first is
the static life of identified reserves, assuming that production continues
at the 1985/86 level. In most instances production is growing however, and
2
reserves are also tending to rise as new deposits are discovered, and
existing mines extend their knowledge. The second figure, to a certain
extent, allows for these changes. It shows the ratio of identified
reserves/reserve base to cumulative demand between 1987 and 2000 (based
mainly on projections by the US Bureau of Mines). Whilst this dynamic ratio
is more meaningful than the static reserve/production ratio, it should,
nonetheless, be treated with considerable caution. A broader ratio of
resources to cumulative demand would normally be much greater. As prices
rise or costs fall more deposits will move from resources into reserves
thereby sustaining supplies for longer than the printed ratios suggest.
~onsumption
Average consumption in 1985 and 1986 is given for the main consuming areas,
and historic annual average compound growth rates, in all cases during the
1970s, and wherever possible for the 1960s as well. The rate of change
during the 1980s is also shown. The underlying data have been derived from
a wide variety of sources.
End Use Patterns
Data are given for the United States in 1986 and in a few cases for other
countries, although such details are not as readily available. Although
consumption patterns differ in detail for the rest of the world the US
figures are reasonably representative of the main outlets for each material.
In some sections, and particularly where there are important non-metallic as
well as metallic uses, separate figures are given for the mineral and for
its immediate products.
Value of Contained Metal in Annual Production
Total world production is multiplied by the average prices of 1987 to
indicate the product's relative importance as an article of commerce. These
values, however approximate, are better guides than relative tonnages alone.
Substitutes and Technical Possibilities
Based largely on the reports of the US Bureau of Mines, these two sections
pinpoint how supply and demand may change.
Prices
A description of the pricing methods employed, with a table showing annual
average prices between 1982 and 1987. For some commodities only one price
is given, whilst in other cases there are several. The prices are taken
from various trade publications. Each table is supplemented by a chart
which shows the trend in a representative price since 1982. The charts plot
index numbers (1987 = 100) of money prices and of prices in 'real' 1987
terms. In order to obtain the latter the money prices are deflated by a
relevant wholesale price index. This is the United States' index where
prices are given in dollars, as they are in most instances.
Marketing Arrangements
A brief description of the structure of the market, and of any relevant
international organisations.
3
Supply and Demand by Main Market Area
Domestic production, trade and consumption in the United Kingdom, European
Community, Japan and United States. Domestic production is divided into the
main stages where relevant. The source of net imports (i.e. imports from
third countries) are shown, and also dependence on external supplies. The
data are mainly averages for 1985 and 1986. The geographical sources of net
imports are given as percentages of the total separately for all four
groupings. Shares of world consumption and the historic growth of
consumption are also included. For most metals the main additional sources
to those used for the earlier tables are the relevant trade statistics.
The geographical coverage of the European Community has changed frequently.
In this Handbook it is the Europe of the Ten (i.e. the present Community
excluding Spain and Portugal) which was the coverage for most of the
statistics included. Greenland is no longer included in the Community, but
its production (of lead and zinc) is now shown separately.
Acknowledgements
The compiler gratefully acknowledges indebtedness to the statistical
publications of the US Bureau of Mines, The World Bureau of Metal
Statistics, Metallgesellschaft, and the British Geological Survey in
particular. Many other sources, listed at the end of the report, have also
been used. The price data are derived mainly from the Metal Bulletin,
Metals Week, Industrial Minerals and the Engineering and Mining Journal.
Any mistaken interpretations, errors or omissions, are the compiler's sole
responsibility. A considerable proportion of the data was put together by
Julie Markey, without whom the book would never have been produced, and she
deserves full credit for this. Thanks are also due to Nobushige Kondo and
his staff in Tokyo.
n/a Not available
c. approximately
Under 1
Independent rounding means that percentages may not add up to 100 throughout
the publication.
4