Military Responses to the Arab Uprisings and the Future of Civil-Military Relations in the Middle East: Analysis from Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, and Syria

257 Pages·2014·1.32 MB·English

by  William C. Taylor (auth.)

Military Responses to the Arab Uprisings
and the Future of Civil-Military
Relations in the Middle East
This page intentionally left blank
Military Responses to the Arab
Uprisings and the Future of
Civil-Military Relations
in the Middle East
Analysis from Egypt, Tunisia,
Libya, and Syria
William C. Taylor
MILITARY RESPONSES TO THE ARAB UPRISINGS AND THE FUTURE OF CIVIL-MILITARY
RELATIONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST
Copyright © William C. Taylor, 2014.
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2014 ISBN 978-1-137-41004-7
All rights reserved.
First published in 2014 by
PALGRAVE MACMILLAN®
in the United States— a division of St. Martin’s Press LLC,
175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010.
Where this book is distributed in the UK, Europe and the rest of the world,
this is by Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited,
registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills,
Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS.
Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies
and has companies and representatives throughout the world.
Palgrave® and Macmillan® are registered trademarks in the United States,
the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries.
ISBN 978-1-349-48889-6 ISBN 978-1-137-41005-4 (eBook)
DOI 10.1057/9781137410054
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Taylor, William C., 1976–
Military responses to the Arab uprisings and the future of civil-military
relations in the Middle East : analysis from Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, and
Syria / by William C. Taylor.
pages cm
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN 978–1–137–41004–7 (hardback : alk. paper)
1. Civil-military relations—Arab countries. 2. Arab countries—
Armed Forces—Political activity. 3. Arab Spring, 2010– 4. Civil-military
relations—Egypt. 5. Civil-military relations—Tunisia. 6. Civil-military
relations—Libya. 7. Civil-military relations—Syria. I. Title.
JQ1850.A38T38 2014
322(cid:25).50956—dc23 2014003747
A catalogue record of the book is available from the British Library.
Design by Newgen Knowledge Works (P) Ltd., Chennai, India.
First edition: August 2014
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
To my wife, Kym. Thank you for
partnering with me on this journey.
Your encouragement has bolstered
my spirit. Your editing was a gift of love.
To Noah. Thank you for your notes,
pictures, and words of encouragement.
Your storybooks are an inspiration to me.
To Seylah. Thank you for your “surprise
visits.” They kept a smile on my face.
This page intentionally left blank
Contents
List of Figures and Tables ix
Acknowledgments xi
One Introduction 1
Two The Past and Future of Arab Civil-Military Relations 23
Three Modeling Military Decision Making in Periods of
Social Unrest 45
Four The Tunisian Military’s “Ambitious Support” of
the Arab Awakening 57
Five The Syrian Military’s “Fervent Support” of
Bashar al-Assad 83
Six The Egyptian Military’s “Reluctant Support” of
the Arab Awakening 115
Seven The Libyan Military’s “Fractured Support” of
Muammar Gaddafi 143
Eight US Influence on Arab Decision Making in
Times of Social Unrest 173
Nine Arbiters of Social Unrest: The Future of Arab
Civil-Military Relations 195
Notes 211
Bibliography 235
Index 243
This page intentionally left blank
Figures and Tables
Figures
3.1 Decision tree of military decision making during
periods of social unrest 50
3.2 Typology of military decision making during
periods of social unrest 51
8.1 Foreign officers’ opinions on America’s liberal
democratic system 189
Tables
1.1 IMET participation in the Middle East and North
Africa region compared with military response 13
1.2 Total US military and economic assistance to Middle
East and North African countries compared with
military response 16
3.1 Interests and restraints of Arab Middle
East Militaries 48
8.1 View of American foreign policy coefficients 187
8.2 Dependence on the US military coefficient 188
8.3 Favorability of America’s liberal democratic
system coefficients 189
8.4 Importance of education in US military
schools coefficients 190