Migration and climate change

64 Pages·2008·0.939 MB·English

by  Oli Brown, International Organization for Migration

Migration and Climate
Change
No. 31
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reflect the views of the International Organization for Migration (IOM). The designations
employed and the presentation of material throughout the report do not imply the
expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of IOM concerning the legal status of any
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IOM is committed to the principle that humane and orderly migration benefits migrants
and society. As an intergovernmental organization, IOM acts with its partners in the
international community to: assist in meeting the operational challenges of migration;
advance understanding of migration issues; encourage social and economic development
through migration; and uphold the human dignity and well-being of migrants.
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ISSN 1607-338X
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11_08
Migration and Climate Change1
Prepared for IOM by
Oli Brown2
International Organization for Migration
Geneva

Contents
Abbreviations 5
Acknowledgements 7

Executive Summary 9
1. Introduction 11
A growing crisis 11
200 million climate migrants by 2050? 11
A complex, unpredictable relationship 12
Refugee or migrant? 1
2. Climate Change and Forced Migration 16
Not such a wonderful world 16
Climate processes and climate events 17
Non-climate drivers 18
Population, poverty, and governance are key variables 19
3. Predictions 21
Climate migration is not new 21
Existing patterns of climate migration 21
“Eating the dry season” – temporary labour migration in West Africa 22
The Dust Bowl years 2
The problem of prediction 24
The climate canaries 25
The good, the bad, and the (very) ugly: Climate migrant scenarios 27
The good 27
The bad 28
The ugly 29
4. Development Implications 31
Assessing regional vulnerabilities 1
Forced migration and development 1
4.1 The urban flood 32
4.2 Hollowed economies 2
4.3 Political instability and ethnic conflict 33
4.4 Health impacts and welfare of forced migrants 4
Climate change migration: A gender perspective 4

5. Policy Responses 36
Heads in the sand 6
5.1. Expanding the definition of a “refugee” 36
The EACH-FOR project 7
5.2 Adaptation in affected countries 8
5. Immigration policy in less affected countries 9
Fencing the border 40
6. Conclusions 41
Endnotes 43
Selected References 51
Annex 1 54
1. The Emission Scenarios of the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios
(SRES)
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AbbreviAtions
IDP – Internally Displaced Person
IOM – International Organization for Migration
IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
LDC – Least Developed Country
MDG – Millennium Development Goal
OECD – Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
SRES – Emission Scenarios of the IPCC Special Report on Emission
Scenarios
UNFCCC – United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
UNHCR – The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees
UN-IEHS – United Nations Institute for Environment and Human Security
VL – visceral leishmaniasis
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ACKnoWLeDGeMents
Many thanks to Simon Bagshaw, Philippe Boncour, Daniel Coppard, Madeleen
Helmer, Saleemul Huq, Jobst Koehler, Helené Lackenbauer, Frank Laczko, Steve Lon-
ergan, MJ Mace, Ilona Miller, Norman Myers, Damian Ryan, Michael Renner, Mike
See, and Meera Seethi for sharing their time, perspectives and experiences. A special
thanks to Frédéric Gagnon-Lebrun, Debbie Hemming, and Randy McLeman for their
invaluable advice and comments on successive drafts. And warm thanks to Christine
Campeau, Gurneesh Bhandal, and Michelle Chan for their research support.
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