Meeting the Challenge of Sustainable Mobility: The Role of Technological Innovations

267 Pages·1999·7.152 MB·English

by  Dr. Harry Geerlings (auth.)

Meeting the Challenge of Sustainable Mobility
The Role of Technological Innovations
Springer
Berlin
Heidelberg
New York
Barcelona
Hong Kong
London
Milan
Paris
Singapore
Tokyo
Harry Geerlings
Meeting the Challenge of
Sustainable Mobility
The Role of Technological Innovations
With 17 Figures and 23 Tables
Springer
DR. HARRY GEERLINGS
Erasmus University Rotterdam
Department of Environmental Studies
P.O. Box 1738
NL-3000 DR Rotterdam
The Netherlands
e-mail: [email protected]
ISBN-13: 978-3-642-64251-7 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg New York
Library of Congr~s.s Cataloging-in-Publication Data
G~~rlings. Harry: i\lceting the chalknge of sustainable mobility: th~ role of technological
ilmovalions; wilh 19 tabln I Harry Geerlings.- Berlin; Heiddberg; New York; Barcelona; HongKong;
l.ondon; Milan; Paris; Singapore; Tokyo: Springer, 1999
ISBN-13: 978-3-642-64251-7 e-ISBN-13: 978-3-642-60089-0
DOl: 10.10°7/978-3-642-60089-0
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In remembrance of my father
Preface
The ongm of this study goes back to a beautiful summer's afternoon at the
Kralingse Plas in the early 1990s. There I was introduced to Ken Gwilliam, a newly
appointed Professor in Transport Economics, whose post covered education and
research in the areas of Traffic and Transportation at the Erasmus University. I
could not have suspected then that such a meeting would lead to intensive coope
ration in this field as well as to a personal friendship. Now, looking back at this
period, I can say that it was Ken who initiated me into the world of transportation
issues and inspired me to put my thoughts on paper. It was in the good old days
and the concern for the natural environment did not affect transportation policies.
My choice of writing a book about the relationship between transportation, tech
nology and sustainable development can also be explained by the discussions I had
with Professor Peter Nijkamp, Professor Piet Rietveld from the Free University in
Amsterdam and Professor Bert van der Knaap from the Erasmus University. They
took over Ken Gwilliam's role, especially after the latter's departure to the World
Bank. An important stimulus for our discussions was the increasing awareness of
the seriousness of the environmental impacts caused by transportation. In a way
they have been stimulating 'sparing partners', albeit from the United States. To me,
the discussions with them symbolise quality, scientific insights, professional atti
tude and personal interest.
There are many people I would like to thank with respect to the contents of this
book; colleagues from the Department of Environmental Studies, secretaries, lib
rarians, technical assistants, etc. I'm sure this list can become very long and still
would leave out many people. Therefore, to all those people: thank you very much!
I will express my gratefulness to you in a personal way.
There is only one exception I would like to make and that is for my wife Patricia
and my children, Jasper and Laura. It goes without saying that our family life has
been greatly influenced by my work on this book. I always had some work with me
for the weekends and during the holidays. In the evenings, especially over the past
few years, I have spent a lot of time in my study. This is all over now, although I
am sure Patricia is already thinking, 'Alright, but, knowing you, something else will
turn up'. If it will, I hope that your empathy and interest as well as your uncondi
tional support will be as formidable a stimulus as it has been during writing this
book. Thanks a lot!
VIII Preface
And the times are a changing. In the new millennium no politician, policy maker
or scientist will underestimate the environmental impacts by transportation. The
topic has gained a permanent position on the policy and research agenda. The chal
lenge is now to make these policies effective. In that respect I hope this book will
be a small brick in the policies we are building up on sustainable mobility.
Harry Geerlings
Rotterdam, October 1998
Contents
List of tables ............................................... XIII
List of figures .............................................. XV
1 New challenges in technology development: the environmental
problem .................................................. I
1.1 Introduction ............................................. 1
1.2 Environmental problems ................................... 1
1.2.1 Environmental problems: From local to global ............. 2
1.2.2 Solutions: From national to international .................. 3
1.2.3 The technological option .............................. 4
1.3 The scientific response ..................................... 5
1.3.1 The rise of environmental sciences ...................... 5
1.3.2 The interaction with economic sciences .................. 6
1.4 The structure of this book .................................. 7
Part A Theoretical part
2 Transport, technology and sustainable development .......... II
2.1 Introduction ............................................ 11
2.2 Transport and the environment .............................. 11
2.2.1 Stratification within the transportation sector .............. 12
2.2.2 The environmental concern ........................... 14
2.3 The technology card ..................................... 19
2.3.1 Environmental technologies .......................... 19
2.3.2 The political setting ................................ 21
2.3.3 Two paradoxes .................................... 24
2.4 The concept of sustainable development ...................... 26
2.4.1 Linking the environment and economics ................. 27
2.4.2 Risk and uncertainty ................................ 33
2.4.3 The need for an attitudinal change ...................... 34
X Contents
3 The evolutionary theory of technology dynamics ............. 39
3.1 Introduction ............................................ 39
3.2 The evolutionary theory of technology dynamics ................ 39
3.2.1 The relevance of technology forecasting ................. 39
3.2.2 Technology; a definition ............................. 40
3.2.3 From macro-trends to micro-analysis ................... 42
3.3 Critics of the modern theory ............................... 54
3.4 The relevance of technology dynamics for sustainable
development and the transportation sector ..................... 58
3.4.l Technological innovations and sustainable development ..... 58
3.4.2 Technological innovations in the transport sector ........... 61
3.5 Respecting heuristics; a new opportunity ...................... 65
4 Policy making in networks and alliances: implications for a
sustainable technology policy .............................. 69
4.1 Introduction ............................................ 69
4.2 Network management and public policy making ................ 69
4.2.1 The crises in public policy ........................... 69
4.2.2 The concept of network management ................... 72
4.2.3 Network management and steering ..................... 74
4.2.4 A new role for the government ........................ 81
4.2.5 Instruments ....................................... 87
4.3 Network management and the private sector ................... 90
4.3.1 Changing positions and performances ................... 91
4.3.2 Strategic alliances as networks ........................ 97
4.4 Cooperation in networks ................................. 101
4.4.1 Networks and strategic cooperation .................... 101
4.4.2 Network management and technology policy ............ 104
4.4.3 Network management and sustainable development ....... 108
5 Directing innovations in the transport sector: a synthesis .... lIS
5.1 Introduction ........................................... lIS
5.2 Processes of change ..................................... lIS
5.2.1 The dynamic environment of innovations ............... 116
5.3 Establishing a technology policy for transport and sustainable
development ........................................... 119
5.3.1 General policy requirements ......................... 1]9
5.3.2 Technology policy requirements ...................... 121
5.4 Towards a sustainably-sound technology policy for the transport
sector: a strategy framework .............................. 124
Contents XI
Part B Empirical part
6 Exploring trends and 'weak signals' ........................ 139
6.1 Introduction ........................................... 139
6.2 Global mobility patterns .................................. 139
6.2.1 Passenger transport ................................ 140
6.2.2 The development of freight transport ................... 145
6.3 Expected trends and 'weak signals' ......................... 147
6.3.1 Public policy perspective ............................ 148
6.3.2 Business perspective ............................... 148
6.3.3 Environmental perspective ........................... 149
6.3.4 Transportation perspective ........................... 151
6.4 Transportation - the environment - technological opportunities:
a challenging future ..................................... 152
7 The Maglev-technology ................................... 155
7. I Introduction ........................................... 155
7.2 Rail transport - the history of high speed trains ................ 155
7.3 The potentials of the Maglev-technology ..................... 158
7.3.1 The state of development ............................ 159
7.3.2 Technical performance ............................. 160
7.3.3 Economic issues .................................. 161
7.3.4 Environmental impacts ............................. 162
7.4 An evaluation of the Maglev from the viewpoint of network
management. technology dynamics and sustainable development ... 166
7.4.1 Actors and activities ............................... 166
7.4.2 The strategy framework ............................. 167
7.5 The Maglev: hype or technological revolution? ................ 175
7.5.1 Prospects for motive power applications ................ 176
7.5.2 The implementation gap ............................ 176
8 The Fuel-cell technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179
8.1 Introduction ........................................... 179
8.2 The historical context .................................... 179
8.2.1 The history of the fuel-cell .......................... 179
8.2.2 A competitive technology? .......................... 182
8.3 The potentials of fuel-cell technology ....................... 185
8.3.1 The state of development ............................ 185
8.3.2 Technical perfonnance ............................. 188
8.3.3 Economic issues .................................. 189
8.3.4 Environmental impacts ............................. 190