Mathletics: How Gamblers, Managers, and Sports Enthusiasts Use Mathematics in Baseball, Basketball, and Football

377 Pages·2009·3.06 MB·English

by  Wayne L. Winston

MATHLETICS
http://avaxhome.ws/blogs/ChrisRedfield
This page intentionally left blank
MATHLETICS
How Gamblers, Managers, and Sports Enthusiasts Use
Mathematics in Baseball, Basketball, and Football
WAYNE WINSTON
PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS PRINCETON AND OXFORD
Copyright © 2009 by Princeton University Press
Published by Princeton University Press, 41 William Street,
Princeton, New Jersey 08540
In the United Kingdom: Princeton University Press, 6 Oxford Street,
Woodstock, Oxfordshire OX20 1TW
All Rights Reserved
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Winston, Wayne L.
Mathletics : how gamblers, managers, and sports enthusiasts use
mathematics in baseball, basketball, and football / Wayne Winston.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-691-13913-5 (hardcover : alk. paper)
1. Sports—Mathematics. I. Title.
GV706.8.W56 2009
796.0151—dc22 2008051678
British Library Cataloging- in- Publication Data is available
This book has been composed in ITC Galliard
Printed on acid- free paper. ∞
press.princeton.edu
Printed in the United States of America
1 3 5 7 9 10 8 6 4 2
To Gregory, Jennifer, and Vivian
This page intentionally left blank
CONTENTS
Preface xi
Ac know ledg ments xiii
List of Abbreviations xv
Part I.Baseball 1
1. Baseball’s Pythagorean Theorem 3
2. Who Had a Better Year, Nomar Garciaparra 11
or Ichiro Suzuki?
The Runs- Created Approach
3. Evaluating Hitters by Linear Weights 17
4. Evaluating Hitters by Monte Carlo Simulation 30
5. Evaluating Baseball Pitchers and Forecasting Future
Pitcher Per for mance 41
6. Baseball Decision- Making 52
7. Evaluating Fielders 64
Sabermetrics’ Last Frontier
8. Player Win Averages 71
9. The Value of Replacement Players 79
Evaluating Trades and Fair Salary
10. Park Factors 84
11. Streakiness in Sports 87
12. The Platoon Effect 102
13. Was Tony Perez a Great Clutch Hitter? 106
14. Pitch Count and Pitcher Effectiveness 110
15. Would Ted Williams Hit .406 Today? 113
16. Was Joe DiMaggio’s 56- Game Hitting Streak the
Greatest Sports Record of All Time? 116
17. Major League Equivalents 123
Part II. Football 125
18. What Makes NFL Teams Win? 127
19. Who’s Better, Tom Brady or Peyton Manning? 132
viii CONTENTS
20. Football States and Values 138
21. Football Decision- Making 101 143
22. A State and Value Analysis of the 2006 Super Bowl 151
Champion Colts
23. If Passing Is Better Than Running, Why Don’t 158
Teams Always Pass?
24. Should We Go for a One- Point or Two- Point Conversion? 165
25. To Give Up the Ball Is Better Than to Receive 172
The Case of College Football Overtime
26. Why Is the NFL’s Overtime System Fatally Flawed? 175
27. How Valuable Are High Draft Picks in the NFL? 180
Part III. Basketball 185
28. Basketball Statistics 101 187
The Four- Factor Model
29. Linear Weights for Evaluating NBA Players 195
30. Adjusted(cid:1)/(cid:2)Player Ratings 202
31. NBA Lineup Analysis 224
32. Analyzing Team and Individual Matchups 228
33. NBA Players’ Salaries and the Draft 233
34. Are NBA Officials Prejudiced? 237
35. Are College Basketball Games Fixed? 242
36. Did Tim Donaghy Fix NBA Games? 244
37. End-G ame Basketball Strategy 248
Part IV. Playing with Money, and
Other Topics for Serious Sports Fans 253
38. Sports Gambling 101 255
39. FreakonomicsMeets the Bookmaker 262
40. Rating Sports Teams 266
41. Which League Has Greater Parity, The NFL or the NBA? 283
42. The Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) 287
43. From Point Ratings to Probabilities 290
44. Optimal Money Management 298
The Kelly Growth Criteria
45. Ranking Great Sports Collapses 303
46. Can Money Buy Success? 311
47. Does Joey Crawford Hate the Spurs? 319
CONTENTS ix
48. Does Fatigue Make Cowards of Us All? 321
The Case of NBA Back- to- Back Games and NFL Bye Weeks
49. Can the Bowl Championship Series Be Saved? 324
50. Comparing Players from Different Eras 331
51. Conclusions 335
Index of Databases 341
Annotated Bibliography 343
Index 353