Table Of Content

massachusetts Industry Projections An analysis of industry employment to 2005 UMASS/AMHERST • COMPUTER SOFTWARE AND RELATED SERVICES HEALTH PRACTITIONERS' OFFICES EATING AND • • DRINKING PLACES NURSING HOMES LOCAL EDUCATION LEGAL SERVICES APPAREL • • • SPECIALTY STORES FOOD STORES RETAILSTORES WATER AND SANITARY SERVICES RESIDENTIAL • • • • CARE FACILITIES PASSENGER TRANSPORTATION CONSUMER CREDIT AGENCIES • • JOB TRAINING AND VOCA""IONAL REHABILITATION SERVICES ACCOUNTING RESEARCH, DEVELOP- • • MENT AND TESTING CREDIT INSTITUTIONS AND INVESTMENT OFFICES HEALTH AND • MEDICAL SERVICES BUSINESS SERVICES MANAGEMENT AND PUBLIC RELATIONS SERVICES CHILD • • • DAY CARE CENTERS PERSONNEL SUPPLY HOTELS AND RECREATION SERVICES • • COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES* AUTO REPAIR SERVICES REAL ESTATE COMPUTER SOFTV/ARE AND • • E ^, Departmentof J Employment and Training Commonwealth ofMassachusetts N^lsL, Nordberg,Commissioner William F ',Vel^' Governor E Department of , ^ Employment and Training Massachusetts Industry Projections: 1991-2005 Date ofPublication: February 993 1 Economic Researcli andAnalysis Sen/ice Contents 1 Introduction 2 KeyAssumptions Underlying Massachusetts Projections 3 Overview: A SummaryofPast and Projected Employment 6 The Largest and Fastest Growing Industries: 1991-2005 10 Industry Growth: 10 Services 14 Wholesale and Retail Trade 17 Finance, Insuranceand Real Estate 20 Transportation, Communications and Utilities 22 Construction 24 Manufacturing 29 Government Charts and Graphs 3 Projected Employment Changes by Sector: 1991-2005 MA 4 Employment Growth: vs. U.S. 1970-1991 MA 5 Labor Force Growth: vs. U.S. 1970-1991 MA 5 Women's Participation in the Labor Force: vs. U.S. 1975-1991 6 Tips on How to Interpret the Projections 7 Fastest Growing Industries in Massachusetts: 1991-2005 8 Massachusetts' Computer Software and related Services Industn,': a profile 9 Industries Generatingover 50 Percent ofthe States' Projected NewJobs MA 11 Employment Percent Changes in Services: vs. U.S. 1970-1991 12 Services: the Sector Accounting for66 Percent ofthe State's NewJobs 13 Projected Employment in Services: 1991-2005 14 Percent Changes in Wholesale and Retail Trade MA Employment: vs U.S. 1970-1991 15 Projected Employment in Wholesaleand Retail trade: 1991-2005 17 Percent Changes in Finance, Insuranceand Real Estate MA Employment: vs. U.S. 1970-1991 18 Projected Employment in Finance, Insurance and Real Estate: 1991-2005 20 Employment Percent Changes in Transportation, MA Communications and Utilities: vs. U.S. 1970-1991 21 Projected Employment in Transportation, Communications and Utilities: 1991-2005 22 The Rise and Fall ofConstruction Jobs in Massachusetts MA 24 Percent Changes in Manufacturing Employment: vs. U.S. 1970-1991 25 Percent Changes in Manufacturing Employment over MA Selected Turning Points: vs. U.S. 26 Concentration ofManufacturingJobs: High Tech vs Non High tech 27 Manufacturing's Declining Share ofJobs: 1977, 1991,2005 28 Projected Employment Changes in Manufacturing: 1991- 2005 MA 29 Percent Changes in Government Employment: vs. U.S. 1970-1991 30 Projected Employment in Government: 1991-2005 Appendix 32 Detailed Employmcni Projections by lndustr\ 36 Technical Notes Digitized by the Internet Archive 2014 in https://archive.org/details/massachusettsindOOmass Introduction: Interpreting and Using the Projections Thisreportisthefirstofa two-part who need long-range information on The projections cover the 14 year series examining Massachusetts' employment trends. Industryprojeaions period from 1991 to 2005.Theyare not long-term job outlook. It analyzes in- and detail employment data are also and cannot be precise forecasts, but dustrygrowth-the changes in demand widely used by university researchers, instead arc indicators of the relative forworkersbyindustry. Italsoprovides other government agencies, trade and size,general directionand likely future job projections for approximately 150 professionalassociationsand businesses direaionofemploymentwithin thestate's industries and insights into the factors formarket research,industrialanalysis economy. Although each growth rate affecting future industry employment. and othereconomic impact studies. suggests a straight line trend or a Also examined is the impact of these constant rate ofchange between 1991 projected employment changes on and 2005, the percentage generally education and training in an increas- A companion report, due to be issued incorporates the cyclical fluctuations inglycompetitivejob market. nextspring,willprovidejobprojections commontomostindustries,whichover by occupation. This occupational re- the long-term, should reflect the These projections aredesigned for use port will identify the number of job dominant trend foreach industry'. by career counselors, educators, busi- opportunities projected to arise from nessplanners,policymakersandothers new demand and replacement needs. 1 Key Assumptions Underlying Massachusetts Job Projections Key assumptionsthatformthebasisof between 1980and 1990. U.S.popu- historicbirthratesandimmigration, the projections areas follows: lation growth is expected to be at minoritieswillcontinuetogrowfaster leasttwiceas high through thepro- than otherdemographic groups and jection period. account for an increasing share of Massachusetts' working-agepopula- Massachusetts'job growth will The age distribution of Massachu- tion. continue to be concentrated injobs setts' population is expected to requiringmoreeducation.The pro- change markedly. In 1975, 10-19 I Tlic Massachu.setts laborforce isex- portion of the state's 25+ popula- year olds made up the largest seg- pected to grow at well under a 1.0 tion havinga collegeeducation rose ment ofMassachusetts'population; percent annual rate. Between 1975 from 20 percent in 1980 to 27 per- by 1990,25-34yearolds comprised and 1990 the Massachusetts labor ^ centin 1990andshould continue to the largest age group; and by 2005, force grew at a 1.1 percent annual riseover the projection period. Only 40-49 year olds should constitute rate.TheU.Slaborforceisprojected 20 percent of the U.S. population the largest age group. to expand at a 1.3 percent rate be- 25+ hadcompletedatleast fouryears tween 1990and 2005. ofcollege in 1990. Massachusetts' work force will age dramatically. Population aged 16- I Keynational assumptionsabout U.S. B Unemployment is estimated to av- 44isprojected todeclinenearlyten economic growth, productivity, the erage 5.5 percent at the end of the percent from 1990 to 2005. while deficit, and defense spending are I 1^ projection period, the same as the population aged 45-64 is expected derived from the U.S. Bureau of nation. to rise over 40 percent. Labor Statistics' moderate-growth projections: 1990-2005. I Populationgrowth in Massachusetts I The growth ofminority groupswill isprojectedtoaverage0.3to0.4per- continue to be a most notable fea- centperyearoverthedecade,slower tureoftheSlate'schangingpopula- than the 0.5 percent yearly growth tion. Primarilybecauseoftheirhigher «