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MARKET DEVELOPMENT AND POLICY FOR ONE BELT ONE ROAD This page intentionally left blank MARKET DEVELOPMENT AND POLICY FOR ONE BELT ONE ROAD Series Volume Editor ACHIM I. CZERNY AssociateProfessor,DepartmentofLogisticsandMaritime Studies(LMS), Faculty of Business,The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China XIAOWEN FU Professor,Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong,China PAUL TAE-WOO LEE Professorand Director, Maritime Logistics and Free Trade Islands Research Center,OceanCollege, ZhejiangUniversity, Zhoushan, Zhejiang, China Elsevier Radarweg29,POBox211,1000AEAmsterdam,Netherlands TheBoulevard,LangfordLane,Kidlington,OxfordOX51GB,UnitedKingdom 50HampshireStreet,5thFloor,Cambridge,MA02139,UnitedStates Copyright©2022ElsevierInc.Allrightsreserved. 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An introductory overview ofthe Belt andRoad Initiative studies 1 AchimI.Czerny,XiaowenFu,andPaulTae-WooLee 2. China'sBelt and Road Initiative: Quantifying the causal relationshipbetween maritime connectivity and global trade 9 TszLeungYip,EveManHinChan,andDannyChiKuenHo 1. TheBeltandRoadInitiative'sroleinimprovingtransport connectivityandtrade 9 2. Literaturereview 11 3. ExtendedgravitymodelforB&Rcountries’exports 13 4. Dataanalysisandresults 16 5. Discussionandpolicyimplications 18 6. Conclusionsformarketdevelopment 23 Acknowledgments 24 References 24 3. China'srecent railway developments and policyreforms 27 KunWang,WenyiXia,andAnmingZhang 1. Introduction 27 2. RecentrailwaydevelopmentsinChina 28 3. China'sHSRdevelopments 41 4. Conclusionsandfutureresearch 55 References 57 4. Effects ofthe “Belt and Road”initiative on the cruise industry 59 Yui-yipLau,MeihuaXu,XiaodongSun,andAdolfK.Y.Ng 1. Introduction 59 2. OverviewofBRI 61 v vi Contents 3. CruisepolicyinBRI 62 4. ExploringthecruisemarketalongBRI 66 5. IdentifyingandevaluatingthepossiblecruiseitineraryalongBRI 68 6. Conclusion 74 References 75 5. The investment efficiency of overseas ports:Three macroscopic factors 77 DongYangandLuLi 1. Introduction 77 2. OverviewofChineseoverseasportinvestment 78 3. Threeportcasestudies 83 4. Conclusion 95 References 95 6. Impacts of air transport subsidies on landlocked developing countries’connectivity under the “One Belt One Road” initiative 99 KanWaiHongTsuiandHanjunWu 1. Introduction 99 2. TheOneBelt,OneRoadinitiative:Anoverview 100 3. Landlockeddevelopingcountriesanddefinitionsoflandlockedness 102 4. KeyproblemsandchallengesamongLLDCs 104 5. ObligationtosupportLLDCs’airconnectivity:Fivekeyreasons 106 6. Airtransportimprovesconnectivityanderadicateslandlockedness 109 7. Rationaleforsupportingtheessentialairservicesofinsmallcommunities throughairtransportsubsidies 112 8. A“win-win”outcomeforLLDCsandpartnercountriesbenefitingfrom improvedairconnectivityresultingfromairtransportsubsidies 115 9. Conclusion 118 Acknowledgments 119 References 119 7. Collusive pricing detection inocean container transport: Acasestudy of Maritime SilkRoad 125 GangDong,JinLi,andPaulTae-WooLee 1. Introduction 125 2. Literaturereview 127 Contents vii 3. Collusiondetectionmodel 130 4. Analysisofthecollusivepricingsolutions 139 5. Casestudy 141 6. Discussionandpolicyimplications 145 7. Conclusion 145 AppendixA 146 AppendixB 148 Acknowledgments 151 References 151 8. An infrastructureinvestment game: Or, whythe belt androadinitiative can represent an equilibrium outcome 155 AchimI.CzernyandSe-IlMun 1. Introduction 155 2. Themodel 157 3. Investmentbehaviors 158 4. Oligopolyandimporttaxes 163 5. Conclusions 168 References 169 Furtherreading 169 9. High-speedrail and air transport integration in hub-and-spoke networks:The role of airports 171 AlessandroAvenali,TizianaD’Alfonso,AlbertoNastasi, andPierfrancescoReverberi 1. Introduction 171 2. Literaturereview 173 3. Incentivestointermodalcooperation 175 4. Themodel 180 5. Benchmarkcase:Noagreement 182 6. Air-railcooperation 183 7. Theroleofairports 189 8. Discussionandconcludingremarks 190 Appendix 193 References 193 viii Contents 10. OnimpactsofPakistanRailwaysMainLine1on“NorthChina-EU” export transit—Taking export transit betweenBeijing andUK as anexample 197 Ying-EnGe,MingfengMo,FangweiZhang,MuhammadArsalanKhalid, MengmeiYu,GuankeLiu,andWenqianLu 1. Introduction 197 2. Researchtools 200 3. Probabilitydistributionmodelandparameteranalysisof NorthChina-Europeexportchannel 201 4. Empiricalanalysisoftheprobabilitydistributionmodelof theNorthChina-Europeexportchannel 204 5. Conclusionsandemergingdirections 217 Acknowledgments 219 References 219 Index 221 Contributors AlessandroAvenali DepartmentofComputer,Control,andManagementEngineeringAntonioRuberti, SapienzaUniversityofRome,Rome,Italy EveManHinChan FacultyofDesignandEnvironment,TechnologicalandHigherEducationInstituteofHong Kong,HongKong,China AchimI.Czerny DepartmentofLogisticsandMaritimeStudies(LMS),FacultyofBusiness,TheHongKong PolytechnicUniversity,HongKong,China TizianaD’Alfonso DepartmentofComputer,Control,andManagementEngineeringAntonioRuberti, SapienzaUniversityofRome,Rome,Italy GangDong SchoolofEconomicsandManagement,ShanghaiMaritimeUniversity,Shanghai,China XiaowenFu DepartmentofIndustrialandSystemsEngineering,TheHongKongPolytechnicUniversity, HongKong,China Ying-EnGe CollegeofTransportationEngineering,Chang’anUniversity,Xi’an,China DannyChiKuenHo DepartmentofSupplyChainandInformationManagement,TheHangSengUniversityof HongKong,HongKong,China MuhammadArsalanKhalid SchoolofBusiness,NationalUniversityofSingapore,Singapore Yui-yipLau DivisionofBusinessandHospitalityManagement,CollegeofProfessionalandContinuing Education,TheHongKongPolytechnicUniversity,HongKong,China PaulTae-WooLee MaritimeLogisticsandFreeTradeIslandsResearchCenter,OceanCollege,Zhejiang University,Zhoushan,Zhejiang,China JinLi SchoolofEconomicsandManagement,ShanghaiMaritimeUniversity,Shanghai,China LuLi DepartmentofLogisticsandMaritimeStudies(LMS),TheHongKongPolytechnicUni- versity,HongKong,China GuankeLiu SchoolofBusiness,NationalUniversityofSingapore,Singapore ix