Managing Critical Infrastructure Risks LLiinnkkoovv__FFMM..iinndddd ii 88//2222//22000077 55::2266::2222 PPMM NATO Science for Peace and Security Series This Series presents the results of scientifi c meetings supported under the NATO Programme: Science for Peace and Security (SPS). The NATO SPS Programme supports meetings in the following Key Priority areas: (1) Defence Against Terrorism; (2) Countering other Threats to Security and (3) NATO, Partner and Mediterra- nean Dialogue Country Priorities. The types of meeting supported are generally "Advanced Study Institutes" and "Advanced Research Workshops". The NATO SPS Series collects together the results of these meetings. The meetings are coorganized by scientists from NATO countries and scientists from NATO's "Partner" or "Mediterranean Dialogue" countries. The observations and recommenda- tions made at the meetings, as well as the contents of the volumes in the Series, refl ect those of participants and contributors only; they should not necessarily be regarded as refl ecting NATO views or policy. Advanced Study Institutes (ASI) are high-level tutorial courses intended to convey the latest developments in a subject to an advanced-level audience Advanced Research Workshops (ARW) are expert meetings where an intense but informal exchange of views at the frontiers of a subject aims at identifying directions for future action Following a transformation of the programme in 2006 the Series has been re-named and re-organised. Recent volumes on topics not related to security, which result from meetings supported under the programme earlier, may be found in the NATO Science Series. The Series is published by IOS Press, Amsterdam, and Springer, Dordrecht, in conjunction with the NATO Public Diplomacy Division. Sub-Series A. Chemistry and Biology Springer B. Physics and Biophysics Springer C. Environmental Security Springer D. Information and Communication Security IOS Press E. Human and Societal Dynamics IOS Press http://www.nato.int/science http://www.springer.com http://www.iospress.nl Series C: Environmental Security LLiinnkkoovv__FFMM..iinndddd iiii 88//2222//22000077 55::2266::2222 PPMM Managing Critical Infrastructure Risks Decision Tools and Applications for Port Security Edited by Igor Linkov INTERTOX, Inc. Brookline, Massachusetts, USA Richard J. Wenning ENVIRON International Corporation San Francisco, California USA Gregory A. Kiker University of Florida at Gainesville, USA LLiinnkkoovv__FFMM..iinndddd iiiiii 88//2222//22000077 55::2266::2222 PPMM Based on papers presented at the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Management Tools for Port Security, Critical Infrastructure and Sustainability, Venice, Italy March 2006 A C.I.P. Catalogue record for this book is available from the Library of Congress. ISBN 978-1-4020-6383-1 (PB) ISBN 978-1-4020-6384-4 (HB) ISBN 978-1-4020-6385-5 (e-book) Published by Springer, P.O. Box 17, 3300 AA Dordrecht, The Netherlands. www.springer.com Printed on acid-free paper All Rights Reserved © 2007 Springer No part of this work may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form-or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming, recording or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher, with the exception of any material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work. LLiinnkkoovv__FFMM..iinndddd iivv 88//2222//22000077 55::2266::2222 PPMM PREFACE At the beginning of each year, there is a deluge of top-10 lists on just about every subject you can imagine. A top-10 list of biggest news stories, best-selling books, most popular music and movies, richest companies, and best places to visit or live. It seems everyone has his or her own top-10 list, reflecting, perhaps, differences in regional, national, and cultural values. Companies and governments most often tend to focus their top-10 lists on economic priorities, or priorities related to national defense, security, public health, and new infrastructure. This year, 2007, was no exception. Yet, increasingly, we see governments, private organizations, and companies advocating a new type of prioritization. The complexity of societal change requires an enhanced capacity for s cientific assessment, monitoring, and emergency response. New uncertain and multifaceted risks and stressors as well as globalization and public pressure for decision transparency drive the need for a new framework for thinking about prioritization. This framework needs to reach beyond the realms of economics, world trade, and corporate management to include the environment, stakeholders, public preferences, and social goals. Moreover, corporations and individuals are not only interested in generic 10-best lists; they want lists tailored to their values, goals, and current economic and social state. For example, the U.S. Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) of 1993 [2] requires federal agencies to establish objective, quantifiable goals describing the outcomes of agency programs to improve confidence, performance, accountability, feedback, decision making, and management. Clearly, prioritization in this case should be customized for the needs of each individual agency. On the global scale, about 100 countries have now prepared national environmental strategies, and tangible changes in addressing environmental issues are apparent in about half of these countries [1]. Implied in all of these top-10 lists, whether Steer’s new envi- ronmentalisms [1], the Ceres1 Principles, the UN’s Global Compact [4], the Equator Principles [5], or the U.S. Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) forest management principles [6], is recognition of the globalization of environ- mental issues. In all cases, scientific input is crucial to inform governments and public opinion and to minimize long-term impacts and risks. It is within this context that we believe decision-making tools are urgently needed to support environmental management, particularly in the world’s 1 Ceres (pronounced series) is a network of U.S. investors, environmental organizations, and public interest groups working to address sustainable environmental challenges [2]. v LLiinnkkoovv__FFMM..iinndddd vv 88//2222//22000077 55::2266::2222 PPMM vi PREFACE ports and coastal areas where a delicate balance exists between human demands for clean air, land, and water and the demands imposed by an increasingly global economy. Addressing threats and identifying actions to mitigate those threats necessitate an understanding of the basic risk a ssessment paradigm and the tools of risk analysis to assess, interpret, and communicate risks. It also requires modification of the risk paradigm itself to incorporate a complex array of quantitative and qualitative informa- tion that shapes the unique political and ecological challenges of different countries and regions around the world. Over the past seven years, the authors of this book and their colleagues have convened a series of meetings to explore the topic of making policy deci- sions under uncertainty in general and environmental management specifi- cally. Each workshop has tried to demonstrate the power of risk assessment and decision analysis as tools that decision makers should use to understand complex environmental, economic, legal, social, and technological informa- tion and to make the best informed decisions. Risk analysis, these experts have argued, offers a relatively objective, unbiased, and rational approach to fram- ing and solving complex problems. It imposes a certain degree of quantitative rigor, as opposed to the all-too-common tendency to make environmental decisions based on assumptions and anecdotal evidence. Decision analysis could supplement risk analysis by providing a means for integrating heteroge- neous scientific information and value calls by both scientists involved in the assessment process and decision makers facing decision challenges. The first workshop in this series, entitled “Assessment and Management of Environmental Risks: Cost-efficient Methods and Applications” (Lisbon, Portugal, October 2000) [7], confirmed the role risk assessment could play as a platform for providing a scientific basis for environmentally sound and cost-efficient management policies, strategies, and solutions to various environmental problems. The second workshop, entitled “Comparative Risk Assessment and Environmental Management” (Anzio, Italy, May 2002) [8], explored the development and application of comparative risk assess- ment (CRA) and other risk-based decision-analysis tools in environmental management. The use of CRA was exceptional for facilitating decision making when various social, political, and economic activities compete for limited environmental resources. The third workshop, entitled “The Role of Risk Assessment in Environmental Security and Emergency Preparedness in Mediterranean Region” (Eilat, Israel, April 2004) [9], focused on envi- ronmental security challenges in the Middle East and how risk assessment could resolve some of the region’s pressing environmental needs. The fourth workshop, entitled “Environmental Security in Harbors and Coastal Areas: Management Using Comparative Risk Assessment and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Framework” (Thessaloniki, Greece, April 2005) [10], LLiinnkkoovv__FFMM..iinndddd vvii 88//2222//22000077 55::2266::2222 PPMM PREFACE vii explored environmental security issues in ports, harbors, and coastal areas and how the use of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), in conjunc- tion with risk assessment, could evaluate environmental security threats, formulate responses to those threats, and assess the efficacy of different responses on threat reduction. This book is based on discussions and papers presented at a fifth work- shop, entitled “Management Tools for Port Security, Critical Infrastructure, and Sustainability. ” This meeting was the first to bring together concepts of environmental risk and critical infrastructure vulnerability with the objective of developing harmonized risk management and decision support methods and tools. The meeting was held in Venice, Italy, in March 2006. More than 40 science, risk assessment, decision-making, and security analysts from nine countries discussed the current state-of-knowledge on environmental security issues at industrial ports and harbors and the adequacy of available systematic, quantitative tools to guide vulnerability and threat assessments, evaluate the consequences of different events and responses, and support decision making. This workshop, like those previous, was sponsored jointly by the Society for Risk Analysis and NATO. The organization of the book reflects sessions and discussions during the meeting in Venice. The goal of the meeting was to review the needs, methods, and tools of critical infrastructure managers and to offer a solu- tion framework and tools. Even though ports were chosen as the focus of discussions and the prime application area, many papers and ideas are easily applicable to critical infrastructure in general. The papers in the introduc- tory section provide a broad overview of the concepts and frameworks important for environmental security and risk management. Part 1 focuses primarily on critical infrastructure and related stressors, including manage- ment of hazardous materials and installations, transportation of dangerous goods including supply chain risk management, vulnerability to earthquakes, and network attacks. Part 2 focuses on ecological stressors affecting ports and coastal area infrastructure, including contaminants, algal blooms, and invasive species. Part 3 provides methodology and tools that are useful for assessing risks and vulnerabilities and supporting management decisions. These include multiple risk assessment tools, multi-criteria decision analysis, advanced modeling, and economic tools. The book concludes with a series of case studies that illustrate application and needs across multiple cultures and regions. This section is quite heterogeneous (both with topical coverage and depth of information assessment), but it preserves the nature of the meeting as a forum for scientists from developing and developed countries to discuss topics, methods, and tools from their own top-10 lists. The collection of papers presented in this book reflects the workshop con- clusion that our ability to fully evaluate environmental security and c ritical LLiinnkkoovv__FFMM..iinndddd vviiii 88//2222//22000077 55::2266::2222 PPMM viii PREFACE infrastructure vulnerability remains inexact. Integrated tools are urgently needed if we are to respond to the exponentially growing environmental and technological challenges that, until only a few years ago, seemed to be several decades away. While scientists and policymakers may argue about whether and when mankind will reach the tipping point for global change, there is little doubt that we are running out of time. We must begin to include in future environmentally and socially focused top-10 lists the consideration of new decision-making tools and new frameworks for investigation, assess- ment, and response to environmental challenges. Establishing, maintaining, or enhancing a sense of environmental security and vulnerability in coastal regions will require (i) matching human demands with available environ- mental resources; (ii) recognizing environmental security threats and infra- structure vulnerabilities; and (iii) identifying the range of available options for preventing and minimizing natural disasters, technological failures, and terror actions. These three considerations will require input from different stakeholder perspectives, and a broad range of quantitative and qualitative sociopolitical, environmental, and economic information. Igor Linkov, Richard J. Wenning, and Gregory Kiker April 2007 References 1. Steer A. Ten principles of the new environmentalism. Finance & Development. 1996; 33(4):4. 2. Government Performance and Results Act. Available at: http://www.whitehouse.gov/ omb/mgmt-gpra/gplaw2m.html. 3. Ceres. Available at: http://www.ceres.org. Accessed 10 February 2007. 4. U.N. Global Compact. Available at: http://www.unglobalcompact.org/AboutTheGC/ TheTenPrinciples/index.html. Accessed 10 February 2007. 5. Equator Principles. Available at: http://www.equator-principles.com/afp1.shtml. Accessed 10 February 2007. 6. Forest Management Principles. Available at: http://www.fscus.org/standards_criteria. Accessed 10 February 2007. 7. Linkov I, Palma Oliveira JM, eds. Assessment and management of environmental risks. Amsterdam: Kluwer; 2001. 8. Linkov I, Ramadan AB, eds. Comparative risk assessment and environmental decision making. Amsterdam: Kluwer; 2004. 9. Morel B, Linkov I, eds. Environmental security: the role of risk assessment. Amsterdam: Springer; 2006. 10. Linkov I, Kiker G, Wenning R, eds. Management tools for port security, critical infra- structure, and sustainability. Amsterdam: Springer; 2007. LLiinnkkoovv__FFMM..iinndddd vviiiiii 88//2222//22000077 55::2266::2233 PPMM ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The editors would like to acknowledge Dr. Abou Bakr Ramadan (NATO workshop co-director) and organizing committee members (Drs. Della Sala, Todd Bridges, and James Valverde) for their help in the organization of the event that resulted in this book. Our special thanks to Dr. Stefano Della Sala for serving as our host in Venice and arranging the workshop recep- tion and use of the excellent facilities at Venice International University. We also wish to thank the workshop participants and invited authors for their contributions to the book and peer-review of manuscripts. We are deeply grateful to Deb Oestreicher for her excellent editorial assistance and management of the production of this book. We also wish to recognize the staff at Venice International University for the superb accommodations and teaching facilities, and Marta Citron and Francesca Peruzzo at the Autorità Portuale di Venezia for their assistance during the workshop. Additional technical assistance in the workshop organization was provided by Elena Belinkaia and Eugene Linkov. The workshop agenda was prepared in col- laboration with the Society of Risk Analysis Decision Analysis and Risk Specialty Group. Financial support for the workshop was provided mainly by NATO. Additional support was provided by the ENVIRON International Corporation, Autorità Portuale di Venezia, Cambridge Environmental Inc., and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. ix LLiinnkkoovv__FFMM..iinndddd iixx 88//2222//22000077 55::2266::2233 PPMM TABLE OF CONTENTS PREFACE ..................................................................................................v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ......................................................................ix Part 1. Overview of Critical Infrastructure and Environmental Security UNDERSTANDING ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY AT PORTS AND HARBORS ...................................................................3 R.J. Wenning, S.E. Apitz, A. Baba, M. Citron, K. Elliott, N. Al-Halasah, L. Kapustka, M. Lazarescu, M. Mohamed, R. Rutjes A BRIEF ANALYSIS OF THREATS AND VULNERABILITIES IN THE MARITIME DOMAIN ........................17 N.O. Bakir ENVIRONMENTAL AND HUMAN SECURITY IN THE MEDITERRANEAN: NEW THREATS AND POLICY FOR REDUCING VULNERABILITY ........................51 J. Ganoulis Part 2. Port Critical Infrastructure and Management Frameworks PROTECTION OF HAZARDOUS INSTALLATIONS AND CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURES - COMPLEMENTARITY OF SAFETY AND SECURITY APPROACHES: APPLICATION OF THE ARAMIS METHODOLOGY .......................65 F. Fontaine, B. Debray, O. Salvi APPLYING RISK ASSESSMENT TO SECURE THE CONTAINERIZED SUPPLY CHAIN ..........................................79 M. van de Voort, H. Willis, D. Ortiz, S. Martonosi TRANSPORTATION OF DANGEROUS GOODS: A CHALLENGE FOR RISK ANALYSTS AND RISK MANAGERS .......................................................................97 S. Menoni xi LLiinnkkoovv__FFMM..iinndddd xxii 88//2222//22000077 55::2266::2233 PPMM
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