Managing Complexity: Practical Considerations in the Development and Application of ABMs to Contemporary Policy Challenges

173 Pages·2013·10 MB·English

by  Sean O’Brien

Studies in Computational Intelligence 504
Mirsad Hadžikadić
Sean O’Brien
Moutaz Khouja Editors
Managing Complexity:
Practical Considerations
in the Development
and Application of ABMs
to Contemporary Policy
Challenges
Studies in Computational Intelligence
Volume 504
SeriesEditor
JanuszKacprzyk,Warsaw,Poland
Forfurthervolumes:
http://www.springer.com/series/7092
·
Mirsad Hadžikadic´ Sean O’Brien
Moutaz Khouja
Editors
Managing Complexity:
Practical Considerations in the
Development and Application
of ABMs to Contemporary
Policy Challenges
ABC
Editors
MirsadHadžikadic´ MoutazKhouja
CollegeofComputingandInformatics TheUniversityofNorthCarolina
SoftwareandInformationSystems Charlotte
UniversityofNorthCarolina NorthCarolina
Charlotte USA
NorthCarolina
USA
SeanO’Brien
StrategicAnalysisEnterprises
FairfaxStation
Virginia
USA
ISSN1860-949X ISSN1860-9503 (electronic)
ISBN978-3-642-39294-8 ISBN978-3-642-39295-5 (eBook)
DOI10.1007/978-3-642-39295-5
SpringerHeidelbergNewYorkDordrechtLondon
LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2013941664
(cid:2)c Springer-VerlagBerlinHeidelberg2013
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Contents
1 Addressing Complex Challenges in an Interconnected
World ...................................................... 1
Sean O’Brien, Mirsad Hadˇzikadi´c, Moutaz Khouja
1.1 The World around Us: Constant Change, Uncertainty,
Chance, and Evolution .................................... 1
1.2 Complex Adaptive Systems: The Case of the European Debt
Crisis ................................................... 3
1.3 Agent-Based Models ...................................... 5
1.3 About This Book......................................... 6
2 Complexity: Where Does It Come from? ................... 9
Sean O’Brien, Mirsad Hadˇzikadi´c, Moutaz Khouja
2.1 Viewing the World as a Complex System .................... 9
2.2 How Should We Deal with a Complex World?................ 11
2.3 Examples................................................ 13
2.4 KISS Principle: Keep It (Simple) System Stupid.............. 15
2.5 Open Issues.............................................. 16
3 An Overview of Agent Based Models ....................... 19
Ted Carmichael
3.1 Introduction ............................................. 19
3.2 Overview of ABM ........................................ 20
3.3 Agent Based Modeling – Key Concepts...................... 20
3.4 Attributes and Behaviors.................................. 21
3.5 Feedbacks and Correlated Feedbacks........................ 22
3.6 Defining the System: The Environment, and Endogenous vs.
Exogenous Effects ........................................ 23
3.7 Agent-Level and System-Level Adaptation................... 26
3.8 Contrasting CAS with Multi-agent Systems.................. 27
VI Contents
4 Running the System: Prediction and Intervention .......... 29
Joseph Whitmeyer
4.1 Overview................................................ 29
4.2 Key Considerations....................................... 30
4.2.1 Time Horizon...................................... 30
4.2.2 Changes in Model Elements ......................... 30
4.2.3 Outcomes ......................................... 32
4.2.4 Constraints........................................ 36
4.3 Prediction ............................................... 36
4.3.1 Advantages and Disadvantages of ABMs for
Prediction......................................... 36
4.3.2 Dealing with Discrepancies .......................... 37
4.4 Intervention ............................................. 38
4.4.1 Kinds of Intervention ............................... 39
4.4.2 Techniques of Intervention........................... 40
4.4.3 Incorporating Responses to Intervention............... 41
4.4.4 Analyzing Effects of Intervention ..................... 42
4.5 Conclusion .............................................. 43
5 The ACSES Model of Afghanistan: Introduction and
Social Theories ............................................. 45
Joseph Whitmeyer
5.1 Introduction ............................................. 45
5.1.1 The Afghanistan Setting ............................ 46
5.1.2 Goals of the Project ................................ 47
5.2 Agents .................................................. 48
5.2.1 Citizens........................................... 48
5.2.2 Fighters........................................... 49
5.2.3 Leaders ........................................... 50
5.3 The Implementation of Social Theories...................... 51
5.3.1 The Utility Function................................ 51
5.3.2 The Behavioral Theories ............................ 52
5.3.3 The Adaptation Theories............................ 56
5.3.4 The Relationship between Theories ................... 57
6 The ACSES Model of Afghanistan: The Model Operation,
Synthetic Population, Calibration, and Surprises ........... 59
Joseph Whitmeyer
6.1 Introduction ............................................. 59
6.2 Geographical Representation............................... 59
6.3 Simulation Steps ......................................... 59
6.3.1 Update Step....................................... 61
6.3.2 Action Step ....................................... 61
Contents VII
6.3.3 Data Step ......................................... 61
6.3.4 Adaptation Step ................................... 61
6.3.5 Utility Step........................................ 61
6.3.6 Behavior Step...................................... 65
6.3.7 Check Step ........................................ 65
6.4 The Synthetic Population ................................. 66
6.4.1 Data Sets ......................................... 66
6.5 Calibration of the ACSES Model ........................... 70
6.5.1 Inputs ............................................ 71
6.5.2 Time and Scheduling ............................... 74
6.6 Outputs................................................. 74
6.7 Procedures and Results ................................... 74
6.8 Technical Design of the GA................................ 75
6.9 Results from the GA...................................... 75
6.10 Analysis of the GA ....................................... 77
6.11 Accounting for Surprise ................................... 78
7 Implementation Influences.................................. 85
Mark Armstrong
7.1 Overview................................................ 85
7.2 Audience ................................................ 85
7.3 Design Influencers ........................................ 86
8 Towards a Characterization and Systematic Evaluation
Framework for Theories and Models of Human, Social,
Behavioral, and Cultural Processes within Agent-Based
Models ..................................................... 93
Auroop R. Ganguly, Joseph Whitmeyer, Olufemi Omitaomu,
Peter Brecke, Mirsad Hadˇzikadi´c, Paul Gilman, Moutaz Khouja,
Steven Fernandez, Christopher Eichelberger, Thom McLean,
Cathy Yu Jiao, Erin Middleton, Ted Carmichael, Amar Saric, Min Sun
8.1 Introduction ............................................. 93
8.2 Key Performance Indicators ............................... 96
8.3 Causal Dynamics and Sensitivity Analysis ................... 97
8.4 Emergent Processes and Emergence Characterizations......... 97
8.5 Predictability Metrics and Measurements.................... 101
8.6 Emergence versus Predictability Trade-Offs .................. 102
8.7 Extractionof Dominant Processes .......................... 103
8.8 Extreme Behavior and Distance Measures ................... 106
8.9 Course-of-ActionAnalysis ................................. 107
8.9.1 A Simulation Test-Bed.............................. 108
8.10 Computational Implementations............................ 109
8.11 Insights and Limitations................................... 110
8.11.1 Systematic Evaluation Results ....................... 112
VIII Contents
8.12 Emergence versus Predictability in Nonlinear Dynamics ....... 112
8.13 Sensitivity Analysis, Causality and Social Emergence in a
Simple HSBC ABM....................................... 114
8.14 KPIs from a Complex HSBC ABM on a Demonstration
Platform ................................................ 117
8.15 Comparison of Aggregate and Fine-Resolution HSBC
Systems ................................................. 127
8.15.1 Distance Measures for Noisy or Limited Observations ... 135
8.16 Conclusions.............................................. 135
9 Lessons Learned from the ACSES Model ................... 137
Joseph Whitmeyer
9.1 Introduction ............................................. 137
9.2 Eleven Lessons........................................... 137
10 Advancing Social Science through Agent-Based Modeling... 145
Joseph Whitmeyer
10.1 Introduction ............................................. 145
10.2 The Necessity of Agent-Based Simulation Models in Social
Science.................................................. 145
10.3 Incorporating Choice and Combination of Theories ........... 148
10.4 Embodying Theories in ABMs ............................. 150
10.5 Final Remarks ........................................... 153
11 Additional Problems........................................ 155
Ted Carmichael
11.1 The Marine Ecosystem Model.............................. 155
11.2 The Energy Model........................................ 161
References...................................................... 169
Author Index................................................... 173
Chapter 1
Addressing Complex Challenges
in an Interconnected World
Addressing Complex Challenges in an Interconnected World
Sean O’Brien1, Mirsad Hadžikadić2, and Moutaz Khouja2
1 Strategic Analysis, Enterprises, Fairfax, Station, VA, USA
2 University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC, USA
1.1 The World around Us: Constant Change, Uncertainty,
Chance, and Evolution
As we were growing up, the world seemed very orderly. Adults knew what was
right and what was wrong (and they made sure they told as that). Television
“talking heads” explained matter-of-factly the causes and consequences of the
events of the day in no uncertain terms. Politicians peddled their ideas for solving
all problems of interest to voters. Scientists were convinced that they discovered
the smallest elements of matter, i.e. atoms. Economists staunchly defended the
notion that markets were efficient and that people were completely rational. There
were no environmentalists to speak of. The weather the next day, of course, was
going to be just a slight variation of the current weather conditions.
Then, we grew up and suddenly realized that the world is a constantly evolving
arena where shifting political alliances, cyclical economies, new scientific
discoveries, frequent natural and man-made catastrophes, fluid relationships,
changing opinions, and self-motivated perceptions of reality are the norm rather
than the exception. In such a world, in order to succeed, individuals and
organizations (associations, corporations, and governments) must constantly
observe, assess, and adjust to the environment that is, at the same time, changed
by the very action of each of its constituent agents.
Consequently, the list of challenges with potentially catastrophic consequences
for our way of life, our nation, our economy, and even civilization in general,
seem to accumulate much faster than the ability of our public leaders to develop a
consensus behind their causes, never mind their resolution. Scarcely a day passes
in which we are not bombarded with reminders that we live in dangerous times.
Global warming, cyber attacks on critical infrastructure, threats to our food and
water supply, global health pandemics, drug and human trafficking, nuclear
weapons proliferation, global financial crises, and unspeakable atrocities carried
out by terrorists and government agents against our fellow human beings are just a
few of the daily headlines that occupy our 24 hour global news cycle.

M. Hadžikadić (eds.), Managing Complexity, 1
Studies in Computational Intelligence 504,
DO I: 10.1007/978-3-642-39295-5_1, © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013
2 S. O’Brien, M. Hadžikadić, and M. Khouja
In Turbulence in World Politics: a Theory of Change and Continuity, a Choice
Award Winning book of 1991, James N. Rosenau takes us on a journey to explain
how we got to this point. According to Rosenau, until the 1950s citizens were
generally uneducated and spent much of their time toiling in labor and raising
their families. Their governments controlled or manipulated what little
information was available to them. People did not challenge or question
government authority. They complied out of habit. Most of the problems or
challenges a country faced occurred within the country itself, and governments
generally dealt with these challenges effectively. Governments could conduct
international affairs largely as they wished. To the extent they required public
support for their actions, they could manufacture that support through skillful
manipulation of the media, which operated on a much slower news cycle than
today’s news organizations. In those days, civil society was generally weak, and
the state system reigned supreme.
After 1950, this bifurcated system began to fragment. The global financial and
economic systems became increasingly interdependent. Because large
corporations could locate their headquarters and operations almost anywhere (and
nowhere in particular in the case of internet-based services), governments could
no longer exercise exclusive control over large corporations, making it much more
challenging to tax or regulate these organizations. Air travel increased both the
speed with which people could cross borders to transact legitimate business,
engage in tourism, traffic in people or drugs, or deliver weapons against their
enemies. If any development ended the notion that problems could be contained
within countries it was the birth of nuclear weapons that threatened the lives of
individuals in every corner of the world.
Other problems, such as global warming defied consensus explanations, easy
solutions, or the ability of any single country or even groups of countries to
address the challenge in any meaningful manner. Some of the more advanced
industrialized countries--those that had both generated the most harmful pollutants
and reaped the most economic gains—frequently demanded that other less
developed, but newly industrializing countries, first restrain their generation of
harmful byproducts and, therefore, their economies, before doing so themselves.
These demands raised fundamental questions about sovereignty, fairness, relative
contributions, self-determination, and national self-restraint.
According to Rosenau, one of the most decisive developments in the post-
1950s eras that altered the balance between strong governments and weak
societies was the microelectronics revolution that eventually gave birth to the
Internet. As media organizations proliferated and the Internet matured, the ability
of governments to control and manipulate images and information to their
advantage was severely eroded. As governments struggled to deal with
problems—many originating beyond their borders—the media were all too eager
and prepared to bring images to televisions, print media, and computer screens to
viewers around the world, who were becoming increasingly sophisticated in their
skills to process and act upon those images. As media organizations proliferated,
so too did a plethora of special interest organizations that pressured or threatened