Managing Complexity in Social Systems: Leverage Points for Policy and Strategy PDF
Preview Managing Complexity in Social Systems: Leverage Points for Policy and Strategy
Management for Professionals Christoph E. Mandl Managing Complexity in Social Systems Leverage Points for Policy and Strategy Management for Professionals Moreinformationaboutthisseriesathttp://www.springer.com/series/10101 Christoph E. Mandl Managing Complexity in Social Systems Leverage Points for Policy and Strategy ChristophE.Mandl UniversityofVienna Mandl,Lüthi&Partner Vienna,Austria ISSN2192-8096 ISSN2192-810X (electronic) ManagementforProfessionals ISBN978-3-030-01643-2 ISBN978-3-030-01645-6 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-01645-6 LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2018961015 #SpringerNatureSwitzerlandAG2019 Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsarereservedbythePublisher,whetherthewholeorpartofthe materialisconcerned,specificallytherightsoftranslation,reprinting,reuseofillustrations,recitation, broadcasting,reproductiononmicrofilmsorinanyotherphysicalway,andtransmissionorinformation storageandretrieval,electronicadaptation,computersoftware,orbysimilarordissimilarmethodology nowknownorhereafterdeveloped. Theuseofgeneraldescriptivenames,registerednames,trademarks,servicemarks,etc.inthispublication doesnotimply,evenintheabsenceofaspecificstatement,thatsuchnamesareexemptfromtherelevant protectivelawsandregulationsandthereforefreeforgeneraluse. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this bookarebelievedtobetrueandaccurateatthedateofpublication.Neitherthepublishernortheauthorsor theeditorsgiveawarranty,expressorimplied,withrespecttothematerialcontainedhereinorforany errorsoromissionsthatmayhavebeenmade.Thepublisherremainsneutralwithregardtojurisdictional claimsinpublishedmapsandinstitutionalaffiliations. ThisSpringerimprintispublishedbytheregisteredcompanySpringerNatureSwitzerlandAG Theregisteredcompanyaddressis:Gewerbestrasse11,6330Cham,Switzerland “No areas of human life are more in need of the tools of system modeling and complexitysciencethanbusiness,governmentandsocialservices,ingeneral.Inthis stunning volume, Christoph Mandl offers a world-class introduction to what these tools actually are and how they can be used to address questions and problems of everydaylife.ThebestpartisthatMandltakestheacademicmysteryoutofsystem science, presenting the field in a form and style that is accessible to just about everyone.Readit!” —JohnCasti,FounderofX-EventDynamics,LLC,SanJose,CA “This book clearly tells the story how to deal with system’s complexity in social systems by using the smart language of stock and flow diagrams. Weak spots and leverage points in the development of society and economy are addressed. The reader is supplied by a number of clear and easy to follow archetypes which constitutethebasisofsomanydynamicsystems.” —ManfredGronalt,ProfessorattheUniversityofNaturalResourcesandLife SciencesVienna “Managing complexity in social systems is a challenge for both professionals and academicians.Themainobstacleistime:Learningbyexperienceisonlypossibleif thetime interval betweencauseandeffect isshort,butifcause andeffectsareina circularrelationship,feedbacksaredelayedthencontrolisnotobviousatall—it’sa “complextask”.Understandingthesephenomenaformthetopicofthisbookwritten in,whattheauthorcalls,“semasiographic”languageforbotheducatedmanagersand students of business analytics. The system behavior casted in stock and flows diagram provides an intuitive interface between qualitative and quantitative reasoning about dynamics by using “archetypical” stylized models. Learning takes placewhileyouthinkaboutinterveninginsuchasystemwhatisbyfaranontrivial task—thisbookhelpstofindyourway!” —Hans-JakobLüthi,ProfessorEmeritusatETHZurich “Thisbooklooksattheworldfromadifferent,yetveryeffectivevantagepoint:the systemicperspective.Anyoneneedstoandcanimprovehisorherunderstandingof systems—social, ecological, economic, etc., and will benefit from the systemic approach. The main question here is: “What are the structures that generate the behavior of the system in focus?” The author delivers a perfect introduction to systemicthinking—unorthodox,insightfulandpractical.” —MarkusSchwaninger,UniversityofSt.Gallen,Switzerland “Giventherapidlychangingcomplexityofsocietalsystemsandthecommonthread of organizations ‘doing more of the same with less effect’ in a resource-scarce environment, this book is not just timely, but necessary. A book of this nature, with topics such as strategic behavior and operational challenges that a decision makerwhoisresource-strickenwhilestrivingforsustainabledevelopmentcanrelate to,isanopportuneandworthwhileendeavor.” —ChristianStary,ProfessorattheJohannesKeplerUniversityLinz “A most inspiring approach to simulate the complex socioeconomic dynamics of managerialsystemssuccessfullyapplyingForrester’sStockandFlowconcept.” —HugoTschirky,ProfessorEmeritusatETHZurich To my wife, Hanna my children, Judith, and Ruth my grandchildren, Fjor, Lucia, and Leander and in memory of my brother Gerhard, 1941–2018 Foreword Alreadybeforetheyear2000myspeechesincludedtheforecast,“Everyoneinthis audience will see more change over the next 25 years than you have experienced duringthepast100.”ThatwasamomentousideaforEuropeanaudiences,giventhe vast changes in every sphere of their lives since 1900. However, observing the acceleratingpaceofeventsastheyunfoldin2018,Ibelievemypredictionswillbe justified.Despitethemountingchaos,wearestillonlyintheveryearlyphasesofan exponentialchangeprocess. Changesarecomingineveryaspectoflife—political,economic,environmental, technological,andpsychological.Theyarebeingdrivenbyclimatechange,automa- tion, migration, debt, the growing reliance on force to resolve disputes, and many otherfactors.Noneofuswillbeabletoescapetheeffectsoftheseforces.Butsomeof uswillflounderwhileotherswillflourish.Theindividualsandorganizationswhoare outstandinglysuccessfulinthecomingdecadeswillnotbethosewhotrytopredict thefuture.Ibelievethatisimpossible.Theywillbetheoneswhotrytoperceivethe underlyingsourcesofchangeandtomanagethedynamicsoftheirinteractionwith theenvironment.Nooneyetknowshowtodothesethingsverywell.ButChristoph Mandl’s gives us all a wonderful boost toward mastery. He has been a student, manager,researcher, andteacher.He providesusinan accessible text many ofthe insightshehasgainedfromover50yearsofprofessionaleffort. His book uses graphics rather than mathematics to explain the causes and consequences of behavior. After an excellent introduction to the basic tools of system dynamics, he describes 11 common system malfunctions. His text is an importantcontributiontoanemergingfieldofthought. Ihaveenjoyedandbenefittedfromreadingthistext;youwillalso. Durham,NH,USA DennisL.Meadows July2018 ix Contents 1 Prelude:ScientificJourneyintoaStrangeParadigm. . . . . . . . . . . . 1 PartI FromLogictoCircularCausality 2 PerceivingEvents,Patterns,andStructure. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 3 Homeostasis,Complexity,Emergence,andPurposefulBehavior. . . 23 4 DecisionandForecast:TheCassandraParadox. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 PartII DescribingandUnderstandingDynamicsofSocialSystems 5 Language,Syntax,andSemanticsforDescribingDynamics ofSystems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 6 ConfusingStockswithFlows:TheCarbonCreditFallacy. . . . . . . . 59 7 LeveragePointsasTechnologytoChangeProblematicDynamics. . . 67 8 SensitivityandUncertainty:LocustPlaguesandPriceDynamics ofCommodities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 9 GenericStructures,SystemsArchetypes,andTheories. . . . . . . . . . 91 PartIII ManagingIntraorganizationalPhenomena 10 ShiftingtheBurden:WhenOrganizationsBecomeAddicted. . . . . . 97 11 AccidentalAdversaries:TheEnigmaofSustainedCooperation. . . 107 12 Adaptation:DriftingGoals,InvisibleHand,andBreastfeeding. . . . 113 13 LimitstoGrowth:NetworkEffectandAttractivenessPrinciple. . . 121 14 GrowthandUnderinvestment:AligningPerformance andResources. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129 xi
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