Managing and Modelling Complex Projects PDF
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Managing and Modelling Complex Projects NATO ASI Series Advanced Science lnstitutes Series A Series presenting the results of activities sponsored by the NATO Science Committee, which aims at the dissemination of advanced scientific and technological knowledge, with a view to strengthening links between scientific communities. The Series is published by an international board of publishers in conjunction with the NATO Scientific Affairs Division A Life Sciences Plenum Publishing Corporation B Physics London and New York C Mathematical and Physical Sciences Kluwer Academic Publishers D Behavioural and Social Sciences Dordrecht, Boston and London E Applied Sciences F Computer and Systems Sciences Springer-Verlag G Ecologica! Sciences Berlin, Heidelfierg, New York, London, H Cell Biology Paris and Tokyo 1 Global Environmental Change PARTNERSHIP SUB-SERIES 1. Disarmament Technologies Kluwer Academic Publishers 2. Environment Springer-Verlag 1 Kluwer Academic Publishers 3. High Technology Kluwer Academic Publishers 4. Science and Technology Policy Kluwer Academic Publishers 5. Computer Networking Kluwer Academic Publishers The Partnership Sub-Series incorpora fes activities undertaken in col/aboration with NA TO's Cooperation Partners, the countries of the C/5 and Central and Eastern Europe, in Priority Areas of concern to those countries. NATO-PCO-DATA BASE The electronic index to the NATO ASI Series provides full bibliographical references (with keywords and/or abstracts) to more than 50000 contributions from international scientists published in ali sections of the NATO ASI Series. Access to the NATO-PCO-DATA BASE is possible in two ways: - via online FILE 128 (NATO-PCO-DATA BASE) hosted by ESRIN, Via Galilea Galilei, 1-00044 Frascati, ltaly. - via CD-ROM "NATO-PCO-DATA BASE"with user-friendly retrieval software in English, French and German (©WTV GmbH and DATAWARE Technologies lnc. 1989). The CD-ROM can be ordered through any member of the Board of Publishers or through NATO PCO, Overijse, Belgium. Series 4: Science and Technology Policy -Voi. 17 Managing and Modelling Complex Projects edited by Terry M. Williams Strathclyde University, Glasgow, U.K. Springer-Science+Business Media, B.V. Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Managing and Modelling Complex Projects Kiev, Ukraine November 13-15, 1996 A C.I.P. Catalogue record for this book is available from the Library of Congress. ISBN 978-94-010-6517-7 ISBN 978-94-009-0061-5 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-94-009-0061-5 Printed on acid-free paper Ali Rights Reserved © 1997 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht Originally published by Kluwer Academic Publishers in 1997 No part of the material protected by this copyright notice may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photo copying, recording or by any information storage and retrieval system, without written permission from the copyright owner. Table of Contents PREFACE V11 Section 1 Introduction 1 Section 2 The need for the workshop 5 Welcome to Ukraine R.V. Shpeck 7 The need for new paradigms for complex projects 9 T.M. Williarns Section 3 Modelling techniques 19 Project planning and control by stochastic network models D. Golenko-Ginzburg and A. Gonik 21 On the expected completion time of diffusion activity networks (DiAN) S.E. Elmaghraby and M.K. Aggerwal 47 Time risk: what it drives and how it is driven C. Chapman and S. Ward 69 System dynarnics methods in complex project management K.G. Cooper 89 Section 4 Domain specific exarnples 109 The mushroom project model: a note P. Dunton 111 Managing complex projects in Ukraine L.I. Romanenko 117 V vi Managing complex software projects - Experiences with real-time mission-critical systems T.P. Conrad 123 Human factors in planning and managing complex in:frastructure projects -a Singapore experience K.T. Yeo 147 Section 5 Corporate structures 165 Joint project management companies K. Pannenbăcker 167 Project management globalization and unification for transition and developing economies V .1. Voropajev 173 Section 6 ManagementtecbEUques 203 Alternative teams in strategic management D.I. Cleland 205 Managing complex projects by active hierarchical systems V.l. Voropajev and S.M. Ljubkin 221 Section 7 Programme management 237 Management of medium-size projects portfolio S.D. Bushuyev 241 Section 8 Conclusions and further research 255 PREFACE This volume contains the proceedings of an Advanced Research Workshop funded by the NAT O Science Programme, entitled "Managing and modelling complex projects". The Workshop took place on 13th-15th November 1996 in Kiev, Ukraine. The fmancial assistance and encouragement ofthe NATO Science Committee is warm1y acknowledged. The Workshop was attended by 54 invited participants from 15 countries, representing a heterogenous mix of interests. 13 Key Papers were presented, and around half of the duration of the Workshop consisted of a series of Open Discussion sessions. The Workshop was co-directed by Dr. Terry Williams, ofStrathclyde University, Glasgow, UK, the editor ofthis volume, and by Prof. Sergey Bushuyev, of Kiev Technical University, Ukraine. Very considerable acknowledgements must be made to Prof. Bushuyev and his team in the Ukraine, who made all of the local arrangements. Alexandre Rodrigues acted as co-organiser. Question and answer sessions, and Open Discussion sessions, have been summarised by the editor from tape-recordings made at the Workshop. However, these summaries have not been viewed or in any way authorised by the participants, and apologies are made for any errors or mis-representation by the editor. vii SECTIONl INTRODUCTION Technology advances and development occurs more and more by means of major projects. Developing new technological products, building new capital assets, undertaking new and unique large-scale enterprises, or implementing solutions to approach the large national and international problems we face, all require major projects to be undertaken. In recent years, these technological products and systems have become more complex. This means that projects developing and building the products, and projects implementing large-scale solutions, have also become correspondingly more complex. At the same time, projects have become more time-constrained: product development times and market opportunity slots are shrinking and major clients expect capital assets built and solutions implemented quicker. Furthermore, there are frequently heavy penalties for late delivery, either explicitly in a contract or implicit in the lost opportunity. This shortening of project-times exacerbates the increasing project complexity. These trends are apparent in all major projects, but possibly particularly. in Design and Manufacture and in Software projects, such as carried out by the defence and redeployed defence industries [1]. For such projects, traditional project management (PM) methods (based on decomposing projects into constituent entities) and project management structures have proved inadequate. Projects have resulted in over-runs, over spends and project failures, and that this continues to be true rather than improving. This is expensive for the implementers of the projects, and damaging to the institutions sponsoring the projects. Furthermore, the trends in modern projects discussed above are exacerbating these problems. For industry to maintain competitiveness, there is clearly a need for more effective means of managing these projects, supported by more effective means of understanding and modelling these projects, in order to provide effective estimating, planning and control. Furthermore, this need is imperative, and becoming more urgent as projects continuously increase in complexity. A number of approaches have been taken to such work, but it has been difficult to take a view as to the most promising approach, nor has any synthesis been T. M. Williams (ed.), Managing and Modelling Complex Projects, 1-3. © 1997 Kluwer Academic Publishers. 2 attempted (either between the approaches or with lower-level operational methods). It is thus clearly the right time to take an overall view. This workshop brought together the leading experts in various main thrusts of research, both applied academics and practitioners, in order that such an overall view could be taken. AII of the key speakers are intemationally known in their particular field. Industries in the Co-operation Partner (CP) countries (the "Eastem bloc") are particularly required to undertake complex major projects, under considerable time-constraints, at the present time. Recent history has meant that Westem countries have had more motivation to develop such techniques. This Workshop, as well as furthering global research, was intended to help in the two-way transfer of knowledge between Westem and CP participants. 54 Carefully selected invited participants from 15 countries representing academics, consultants, contractors and clients attended. The format of the Workshop was not that of a conference: an important feature was a sedes of open discussion sessions to develop the ideas in the 13 Key Papers. Key Speaker presentations occupied around half of the time, and these open discussion sessions the remainder. The discussions were far-ranging, and are reported here roughly as they occurred, although this sometimes strained the conference structure. After a "welcome" to the Ukraine, the first technical paper in the Workshop considered what constitutes a "complex" project. Then the Workshop looked ata variety of approaches, both techniques to manage the projects and techniques for modelling projects to inform such management. • Modelling techniques were considered first. PERT-type methods are inadequate because they do not incorporate management actions, adequately consider uncertainty or consider effects that are systemic or "soft". The frrst two papers extended PERT methods, the first using controlled networks, the second diffusion networks to consider uncertainty. The third paper covered risk analysis techniques, considering how time risk impacts on cost and what drives time risk. Finally, the System Dynamics technique was presented, which provides a simulation model of projects, capturing systemic effects and effects that are "soft". • Three papers looked at PM in particular domains: the first new technology projects, the second software development projects, which because of their special attributes need special management techniques; the third paper covered infrastructure projects, but dealt specifically with the human factors involved in PM.
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