MAKING SOCIAL SPENDING WORK Howdoessocialspendingrelatetoeconomicgrowthandwhichcountrieshave got this right and wrong? Peter Lindert examines the experience of countries acrosstheglobetorevealwhathasworked,whatneedschangingandwhothe winners and losers are under different systems. He traces the development of publiceducation,healthcare,pensions,andwelfareprovision,andaddresseskey questions around inter-generational inequality and fiscal redistribution, the returnstoinvestmentinhumancapital,howtodealwithanagingpopulation, whether migration is a cost or a benefit, and how social spending differs in autocracies and democracies. The book shows that what we need to do above allistoinvestmoreintheyoungfromcradletocareer,andshifttheburdenof payingforsocialinsuranceawayfromtheworkplaceandontosocietyasawhole. Peter H. Lindert is Distinguished Professor of Economics at the University of California, Davis. His previous publications include the prize-winning book Growing Public: Social Spending and Economic Growth since the Eighteenth Century (2004)andUnequalGains:AmericanGrowthandInequalitysince1700(2016,with JeffreyG.Williamson). UniversityPrintingHouse,CambridgeCB28BS,UnitedKingdom OneLibertyPlaza,20thFloor,NewYork,NY10006,USA 477WilliamstownRoad,PortMelbourne,VIC3207,Australia 314–321,3rdFloor,Plot3,SplendorForum,JasolaDistrictCentre, NewDelhi–110025,India 79AnsonRoad,#06–04/06,Singapore079906 CambridgeUniversityPressispartoftheUniversityofCambridge. ItfurtherstheUniversity’smissionbydisseminatingknowledgeinthepursuitof education,learning,andresearchatthehighestinternationallevelsofexcellence. www.cambridge.org Informationonthistitle:www.cambridge.org/9781108478168 DOI:10.1017/9781108784467 ©PeterH.Lindert2021 Thispublicationisincopyright.Subjecttostatutoryexception andtotheprovisionsofrelevantcollectivelicensingagreements, noreproductionofanypartmaytakeplacewithoutthewritten permissionofCambridgeUniversityPress. Firstpublished2021 PrintedintheUnitedKingdombyTJBooksLimited,PadstowCornwall AcataloguerecordforthispublicationisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary. ISBN978-1-108-47816-8Hardback CambridgeUniversityPresshasnoresponsibilityforthepersistenceoraccuracyof URLsforexternalorthird-partyinternetwebsitesreferredtointhispublication anddoesnotguaranteethatanycontentonsuchwebsitesis,orwillremain, accurateorappropriate. ToNatasha,Sophie,Izzy,Nadia,Carson,Alex,Kailani,andKiara Contents ListofFigures ix ListofTables xii part i. overview 1. EnduringIssues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 2. FindingsandLessons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 part ii. the long rise, and its causes 3. WhyPoorReliefArrivedSoLate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 4. TheDawnofMassSchoolingbefore1914 . . . . . . . . . . . 48 5. PublicEducationsince1914 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 6. More,butDifferent,SocialSpendinginRich Countriessince1914 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 7. IstheRestoftheWorldFollowingaDifferentPath? . . . . . 122 part iii. what effects? 8. EffectsonGrowth,Jobs,andLife . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153 9. WhyNoNetLossofGDPorWork? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176 10. DotheRichPaythePoorforAllThis? . . . . . . . . . . . . 208 part iv. confronting threats 11. DoImmigrationTensionsFraytheSafetyNets? . . . . . . . 235 12. PensionsandtheCurseofLongLife . . . . . . . . . . . . . 254 13. ApproachestoPublicPensionReform . . . . . . . . . . . . 286 14. BorrowingSocial-SpendingLessons . . . . . . . . . . . . . 321 vii CONTENTS appendices Availableonlineatwww.cambridge.org/Lindert AppendixA. SourcesandNotesforChapters3and4 AppendixB. FiscalRedistributionintheLongerRun AppendixC. SourcesandNotesforChapter10 AppendixD. Chapter12’sPensionAccounting–EquationsandForecasts Acknowledgments 356 Notes 358 References 390 Index 419 viii