Making Climate Forecasts Matter PDF
Preview Making Climate Forecasts Matter
i Making Climate Forecasts Matter Paul C. Stern and William E. Easterling, editors Panel on the Human Dimensions of Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Variability Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1999 About this PDF file: This new digital representation of the original work has been recomposed from XML files created from the original paper book, not from the original typesetting files. Page breaks are true to the original; line lengths, word breaks, heading styles, and other typesetting-specific formatting, however, cannot be retained, and some typographic errors may have been accidentally inserted. Please use the print version of this publication as the authoritative version for attribution. ii NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. The study was supported by Contracts No. 56-DKNA-6-90040 and 50-DKNA-7-90052 between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for this project. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Making climate forecasts matter / Paul C. Stern and William E. Easterling, editors ; Panel on the Human Dimensions of Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Variability, Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, National Research Council. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-309-06475-9 (hardcover) 1. Climatic changes—Social aspects. 2. Weather forecasting—Social aspects. 3. Long-range weather forecasts—Social aspects. I. Stern, Paul C., 1944- II. Easterling, William E. III. National Research Council (U.S.). Panel on the Human Dimensions of Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Vari- ability. QC981.8.C5 M345 1999 551.63—dc21 99-6247 Additional copies of this report are available from National Academy Press, 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20418. Call (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washing- ton metropolitan area) This report is also available on line at http://www.nap.edu Printed in the United States of America Copyright 1999 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. About this PDF file: This new digital representation of the original work has been recomposed from XML files created from the original paper book, not from the original typesetting files. Page breaks are true to the original; line lengths, word breaks, heading styles, and other typesetting-specific formatting, however, cannot be retained, and some typographic errors may have been accidentally inserted. Please use the print version of this publication as the authoritative version for attribution. iii Panel on the Human Dimensions of Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Variability WILLIAM E. EASTERLING (Chair), Department of Geography and Earth System Science Center, Pennsylvania State University PAUL R. EPSTEIN, Center for Health and the Global Environment, Harvard Medical School KATHLEEN A. GALVIN, Department of Anthropology, Colorado State University DIANA M. LIVERMAN, Latin American Area Center and Department of Geography, University of Arizona DENNIS S. MILETI, Department of Sociology and Natural Hazards Research and Applications Information Center, University of Colorado KATHLEEN A. MILLER, Environmental and Societal Impacts Group, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO FRANKLIN W. NUTTER, Reinsurance Association of America, Washington, DC MARK R. ROSENZWEIG, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania EDWARD S. SARACHIK, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington ELKE U. WEBER, Department of Psychology, Ohio State University PAUL C. STERN, Study Director, National Research Council HEATHER C. SCHOFIELD, Senior Project Assistant, National Research Council PAUL McLAUGHLIN, Consultant, Independent Researcher About this PDF file: This new digital representation of the original work has been recomposed from XML files created from the original paper book, not from the original typesetting files. Page breaks are true to the original; line lengths, word breaks, heading styles, and other typesetting-specific formatting, however, cannot be retained, and some typographic errors may have been accidentally inserted. Please use the print version of this publication as the authoritative version for attribution. iv About this PDF file: This new digital representation of the original work has been recomposed from XML files created from the original paper book, not from the original typesetting files. Page breaks are true to the original; line lengths, word breaks, heading styles, and other typesetting-specific formatting, however, cannot be retained, and some typographic errors may have been accidentally inserted. Please use the print version of this publication as the authoritative version for attribution. v Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change 1998 DIANA M. LIVERMAN (Chair), Latin American Area Center and Department of Geography, University of Arizona JOHN ANTLE, Department of Agricultural Economics, Montana State University PAUL R. EPSTEIN, Center for Health and Global Environment, Harvard Medical School MYRON GUTMANN, Department of History, University of Texas at Austin PAUL MAYEWSKI, Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space, University of New Hampshire EMILIO F. MORAN, Department of Anthropology, Indiana University ELINOR OSTROM, Workshop in Political Theory and Policy Analysis, Indiana University EDWARD PARSON, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University RONALD R. RINDFUSS, Department of Sociology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill ROBERT SOCOLOW, Center for Energy and Environmental Studies, Princeton University SUSAN STONICH, Department of Anthropology, University of California ELKE WEBER, Department of Psychology, Ohio State University EDWARD FRIEMAN (ex officio, chair, Board on Sustainable Development ), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego ORAN R. YOUNG (ex officio, International Human Dimensions Programme liaison), Institute of Arctic Studies, Dartmouth College PAUL C. STERN, Study Director, National Research Council HEATHER C. SCHOFIELD, Senior Project Assistant, National Research Council About this PDF file: This new digital representation of the original work has been recomposed from XML files created from the original paper book, not from the original typesetting files. Page breaks are true to the original; line lengths, word breaks, heading styles, and other typesetting-specific formatting, however, cannot be retained, and some typographic errors may have been accidentally inserted. Please use the print version of this publication as the authoritative version for attribution. vi The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedi- cated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scien- tific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Acad- emy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engi- neers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engi- neering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and re- search, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Insti- tute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sci- ences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal govern- ment. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Acad- emy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org About this PDF file: This new digital representation of the original work has been recomposed from XML files created from the original paper book, not from the original typesetting files. Page breaks are true to the original; line lengths, word breaks, heading styles, and other typesetting-specific formatting, however, cannot be retained, and some typographic errors may have been accidentally inserted. Please use the print version of this publication as the authoritative version for attribution. CONTENTS vii Contents Preface ix Summary 1 1 Climate Variability, Climate Forecasting, and Society 7 Climate Variation and Society 11 Structure of this Book 16 2 Climate Forecasting and Its Uses 18 Weather and Climate 18 How Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Forecasts Are Made 19 Toward Usable Knowledge 29 Findings 36 3 Coping with Seasonal-to-Interannual Climatic Variation 38 Coping in Weather-Sensitive Sectors 39 Institutions for Coping with Climate Variability 54 Findings 58 4 Making Climate Forecast Information More Useful 63 Useful Information That Climate Forecasts Might Provide 63 Responses to Past Climate Predictions 67 About this PDF file: This new digital representation of the original work has been recomposed from XML files created from the original paper book, not from the original typesetting files. Page breaks are true to the original; line lengths, word breaks, heading styles, and other typesetting-specific formatting, however, cannot be retained, and some typographic errors may have been accidentally inserted. Please use the print version of this publication as the authoritative version for attribution. CONTENTS viii Indirect Sources of Insight into Responses to Climate Forecasts 71 Findings 89 5 Measuring the Consequences of Climate Variability and Forecasts 95 Estimating the Effects of Climate Variations 96 Estimating the Value of Climate Forecasts 108 Findings 120 6 Scientific Priorities 124 Findings 125 Scientific Questions 129 References 142 About the Authors 160 Index 165 About this PDF file: This new digital representation of the original work has been recomposed from XML files created from the original paper book, not from the original typesetting files. Page breaks are true to the original; line lengths, word breaks, heading styles, and other typesetting-specific formatting, however, cannot be retained, and some typographic errors may have been accidentally inserted. Please use the print version of this publication as the authoritative version for attribution. PREFACE ix Preface Climatic variability on the seasonal-to-interannual time scale affects many facets of human life. It always has. Throughout human history, departures from the seasonal rhythms of climate often provided the difference between wealth and poverty, feast and famine, health and disease, and even life and death. Sometimes, more subtly, they spelled delicate differences among degrees of profit and loss. So pervasive are the implications of climatic variability for human welfare that, for thousands of years, societies have developed coping strategies ranging from elaborate irrigation systems to nomadic pastoralism to the modern disaster insurance industry. The effects of climatic variability are, at times, dramatic and unmistakable; at other times, they are muted and difficult to separate from other driving forces affecting society. Haunting television images of withered crops and starving Ethiopians in the 1970s gave the viewing public a chilling firsthand glimpse of what can happen when rains so desperately needed cease. More careful analysis shows, however, that although drought precipitated the famine, it was also due to other factors, such as war, forced resettlement, and disruption of the national food system. As we look to the future, there are compelling reasons to believe that the welfare of societies worldwide will be increasingly tied to risks and opportunities associated with seasonal-to-interannual climatic variability. Several trends point in this direction. The global demand for food and fiber will continue to rise, fueled by growth in population and incomes, especially in developing countries. The ability of the world's farmers and foresters to meet the demand sustainably is in question. The About this PDF file: This new digital representation of the original work has been recomposed from XML files created from the original paper book, not from the original typesetting files. Page breaks are true to the original; line lengths, word breaks, heading styles, and other typesetting-specific formatting, however, cannot be retained, and some typographic errors may have been accidentally inserted. Please use the print version of this publication as the authoritative version for attribution. PREFACE x disparity of incomes between the rich and poor, north and south, and urban and rural is growing wider. Rapid urbanization, especially in developing countries, is drawing labor and capital from rural hinterlands and transforming prime agricultural land along the urban fringe, thus degrading resource bases. Development in semiarid regions and along coastal lowlands is occurring at a rapid pace, thus increasing the human population in the areas most vulnerable to climatic variations. For better or worse, unprecedented long-term climatic changes likely to occur from greenhouse warming will also change seasonal-to- interannual variability. Improvement in the ability to forecast climatic variability based on knowledge of ocean-atmosphere interactions is one of the premiere advancements in the atmospheric sciences at the close of the 20th century. Improved seasonal-to-interannual climate prediction offers society an opportunity to partially or fully protect, or even to increase, social welfare. It promises to enable society to deal with the effects of climate variability more effectively than ever. But increase in forecast skill is not a panacea. The improved forecasts remain far from perfect. They are often ill-suited for direct use in decision making. And decision making is often ill-suited for use of the forecasts. In recognition of the above, the Office of Global Programs (OGP) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has elected to focus its Economics and Human Dimensions of Climate Fluctuations research program on increasing understanding of how society is affected by seasonal-to- interannual climate variability and, in turn, how society may benefit from improved ability to forecast such variability. NOAA asked the Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change of the National Research Council (NRC) to establish the Panel on the Human Dimensions of Seasonal-to- Interannual Climate Variability to examine these issues. The panel was given this task: to provide scientific input to NOAA on research needs and programs in the area of human dimensions of seasonal-to-interannual climate variability, including issues of societal vulnerability, use of forecast information, the value of short-term climate prediction, and adaptation to climate variability with and without climate forecast information. The panel met three times between May 1997 and May 1998—a period spanning perhaps the most extreme El Niño event of the century and during which seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasting became, for the first time, an item of headline news. The panel recognized that, as we deliberated, a major natural experiment was occurring that could provide great insights about the usefulness of climate forecasts. The panel did not attempt to draw conclusions from this natural experiment—the data are not yet in—but instead assessed the state of knowledge, data, and scientific methods on the issues before it and considered how NOAA and other About this PDF file: This new digital representation of the original work has been recomposed from XML files created from the original paper book, not from the original typesetting files. Page breaks are true to the original; line lengths, word breaks, heading styles, and other typesetting-specific formatting, however, cannot be retained, and some typographic errors may have been accidentally inserted. Please use the print version of this publication as the authoritative version for attribution.
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