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Major Powers and the Quest for Status in International Politics Evolutionary Processes in World Politics Edited by William R. Thompson, Indiana University Published by Palgrave Macmillan: The Historical Evolution of World-Systems Edited by Christopher Chase-Dunn and E. N. Anderson (2005) Puzzles of the Democratic Peace: Theory, Geopolitics and the Transformation of World Politics By Karen Rasler and William R. Thompson (2005) The Making of a Digital World: The Evolution of Technological Change and How It Shaped Our World By Joachim K. Rennstich (2008) Systemic Transitions: Past, Present, and Future Edited by William R. Thompson (2009) Theory and Methodology of World Development: The Writings of Andre Gunder Frank Edited by Sing C. Chew and Pat Lauderdale (2010) Major Powers and the Quest for Status in International Politics: Global and Regional Perspectives Edited by Thomas J. Volgy, Renato Corbetta, Keith A. Grant, and Ryan G. Baird (2011) Major Powers and the Quest for Status in International Politics Global and Regional Perspectives Edited by Thomas J. Volgy, Renato Corbetta, Keith A. Grant, and Ryan G. Baird MAJOR POWERS AND THE QUEST FOR STATUS IN INTERNATIONAL POLITICS Copyright © Thomas J. Volgy, Renato Corbetta, Keith A. Grant, and Ryan G. Baird, 2011. Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2011 978-0-230-11931-4 All rights reserved. First published in 2011 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN® in the United States—a division of St. Martin’s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010. Where this book is distributed in the UK, Europe and the rest of the world, this is by Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave® and Macmillan® are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries. ISBN 978-1-349-28925-7 ISBN 978-0-230-11931-4 (eBook) DOI 10.1057/9780230119314 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Major powers and the quest for status in international politics / edited by Thomas J. Volgy . . . [et al.]. p. cm.—(Evolutionary processes in world politics) 1. Great powers. 2. International relations. 3. World politics—21st century. I. Volgy, Thomas J. JZ1310.M35 2011 327.1—dc22 2010049112 A catalogue record of the book is available from the British Library. Design by Newgen Imaging Systems (P) Ltd., Chennai, India. First edition: June 2011 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 C O N T E N T S List of Tables and Figures vii List of Contributors ix Preface xi Jack S. Levy One Major Power Status in International Politics 1 Thomas J. Volgy, Renato Corbetta, Keith A. Grant, and Ryan G. Baird Two The United States as Global Leader, Global Power, and Status-Consistent Power? 27 William R. Thompson Three USSR/Russian Federation’s Major Power Status Inconsistencies 55 Maria Raquel Freire Four The Power and Politics of Recognition: Status in China’s Foreign Relations 77 Yong Deng Five French Power-S eeking and Overachievement 97 Bertrand Badie Six Japan as an Underachiever: Major Power Status in Climate Change Politics 115 Norichika Kanie Seven Identifying Regional Powers and Their Status 133 Kirssa Cline, Patrick Rhamey, Alexis Henshaw, Alesia Sedziaka, Aakriti Tandon, and Thomas J. Volgy vi Contents Eight Brazil: Major Power in the Making? 159 Monica Herz Nine India: A Major Power in the Making 181 Rajesh Basrur Ten S tatus and the Future of International Politics 203 Renato Corbetta, Thomas J. Volgy, Ryan G. Baird, and Keith A. Grant References 225 Index 237 T A B L E S A N D F I G U R E S Tables 1.1 COW Major Powers, 1945 to the Present 5 1.2 Major Power Measures and Status Consistency, Five- Year Intervals, 1951- 2005 14 1.3 Major Power Status, COW and MPS Compared, 1951–2005 21 5.1 Factors Affecting France’s Overachievement Strategy 112 6.1 Result of the Principal Component Analysis 123 7.1 Regional Membership, Regional Powers, and Potential Regional Challengers 135 7.2 Criteria for Classifying Regional Powers and Regional Challengers 142 7.3 Military and Economic Opportunity, Regional Powers, and Challenger States, 1990– 2005 143 7.4 Willingness, Regional Powers, and Challenger States, 1990–2005 144 7.5 Regional and Global Status Attribution for Regional Powers and Challengers, 1990–2005 147 7.6 Summary of Findings for Opportunity, Willingness, and Status, 1990- 2005 149 7.7 Additional Regions, Regional Powers, Challengers, Isolated States, and Border States 152 7.8 Language Families and Scripts Used to Calculate the Linguistic Similarity Measure 154 9.1 South Asia’s Nonmilitary Power Indicators, 2000 and 2008 185 9.2 South Asia’s Military Balance, 2008 185 9.3 S outh Asian Neighbours, Trade with India as Percent of Total Trade, 1997 186 9.4 Military Indicators, India and Major Powers Compared, 2009 193 viii Tables and Figures 9.5 Selected Economic Indicators Comparing India with Major Powers, 2009 194 Figures 1.1 Gini index of the inequality of military expenditures in the international system (1816–2001) 2 1.2 Average Gini coefficients of GDP of the international system for five periods between 1821 and 2006 3 1.3 Conditions influencing community- based status attribution 8 1.4 Threshold Criteria for Inclusion in Major Power Status Club 16 1.5 US capabilities, foreign policy activity, and status measures (1950–2007) 17 1.6 Indian capabilities, foreign policy activity, and status measures (1950–2007) 18 1.7 USSR/Russian capabilities, foreign policy activity, and status measures (1950–2007) 19 2.1 US relative economic and global reach capability 41 2.2 British economic and global reach capability 42 2.3 French economic and global reach capability 43 2.4 German economic and global reach capability 43 2.5 Shares of world GDP 44 2.6 Shares of global reach capabilities 45 2.7 US and USSR/Russian global reach capability shares 46 2.8 The three largest economies 47 2.9 Number one and number two economic and military gaps 48 3.1 Russian GDP (billions of current US$ for 1990–2008) 70 6.1 Six Options for Japan’s midterm target under the Aso cabinet 128 C O N T R I B U T O R S Bertrand Badie is professor of political science and international rela- tions at Sciences Po, Paris, where he is in charge of the PhD program in international relations. He published about twenty books in International Relations and Comparative Politics, including The Imported State, Stanford University Press, 2000 and Le Diplomate et l’Intrus, Fayard, 2008. He is one of the general editors of The International Encyclopedia in Political Science (Sage). Ryan G. Baird received his PhD in political science from the University of Arizona, and is now at the Warfare Analysis Center. He has written extensively on the primacy of a state’s governance infrastructure, and its relationship with a state’s regime type and economic outcomes. Rajesh Basrur is senior fellow, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. His recent pub- lications include South Asia’s Cold War (Routledge, 2008) and Minimum Deterrence and India’s Nuclear Security (Stanford University Press, 2006). Kirssa Cline, Patrick Rhamey, Alexis Henshaw, Alesia Sedziaka, and Aakriti Tandon are PhD candidates in political science at the School of Government and Public Policy, University of Arizona. Kirssa’s current focus is human rights violations in relation to civil conflict and authori- tarian regimes. Patrick’s research interests include domestic-international linkages, regionalism, globalization, conflict, and conflict mediation. Alexis’ research interests include gender, conflict, and Latin American politics. Alesia specializes in international and comparative politics, with an emphasis on Central European states. Aakriti’s primary focus is on international political economy. Renato Corbetta is an assistant professor of political science in the Department of Government at the University of Alabama-Birmingham. His research has been published in Foreign Policy Analysis, Political Research Quarterly, and Conflict Management and Peace Science. His recent work

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