mag 2017 eight-hour ozone moderate area plan for the maricopa nonattainment area december ...

139 Pages·2016·2.27 MB·English

MAG 2017 EIGHT-HOUR OZONE MODERATE AREA PLAN
FOR THE MARICOPA NONATTAINMENT AREA
DECEMBER 2016
MAG 2017 EIGHT-HOUR OZONE MODERATE AREA PLAN
FOR THE MARICOPA NONATTAINMENT AREA
Prepared by:
December 2016
Technical Assistance Provided By:
Arizona Department of Environmental Quality
Arizona Department of Transportation
Maricopa County Air Quality Department
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
MAG 2017 EIGHT-HOUR OZONE MODERATE AREA PLAN
FOR THE MARICOPA NONATTAINMENT AREA
TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER PAGE
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ES-1
ONE INTRODUCTION.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-1
HISTORICAL BACKGROUND. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-1
OUTLINE OF THE MAG 2017 MODERATE AREA OZONE PLAN. . . . 1-3
TWO DESCRIPTION OF THE NONATTAINMENT AREA.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-1
NONATTAINMENT AREA BOUNDARIES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-1
GEOGRAPHY AND CLIMATIC CONDITIONS.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-1
THREE ASSESSMENT OF AIR QUALITY CONDITIONS.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-1
OZONE FORMATION AND HEALTH EFFECTS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-1
SOURCES OF OZONE PRECURSOR EMISSIONS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-2
AIR QUALITY MONITORING DATA AND TREND ANALYSIS.. . . . . . . 3-7
FOUR EVALUATION OF OZONE CONTROL MEASURE REQUIREMENTS
IN THE CLEAN AIR ACT. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-1
REASONABLY AVAILABLE CONTROL MEASURE ANALYSIS. . . . . . 4-1
REASONABLY AVAILABLE CONTROL TECHNOLOGY
ANALYSIS.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-45
NEW SOURCE REVIEW. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-46
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MAG 2017 EIGHT-HOUR OZONE MODERATE AREA PLAN
FOR THE MARICOPA NONATTAINMENT AREA
TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued)
CHAPTER PAGE
FIVE THE ADOPTED PLAN. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-1
EXISTING MEASURES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-1
MEASURES USED FOR NUMERIC CREDIT.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-12
CONTINGENCY MEASURES.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-19
ASSURANCES THAT THE STATE HAS THE AUTHORITY TO
IMPLEMENT THE MEASURES IN THE PLAN.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-19
TRACKING PLAN IMPLEMENTATION. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-20
SIX ATTAINMENT DEMONSTRATION AND WEIGHT OF THE EVIDENCE
ANALYSIS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-1
ATTAINMENT DATE.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-1
EMISSIONS INVENTORIES.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-2
ATTAINMENT MEASURES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-7
ATTAINMENT DEMONSTRATION.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-8
WEIGHT OF EVIDENCE ANALYSIS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-12
ONROAD MOBILE EMISSIONS BUDGETS FOR CONFORMITY.. . . 6-15
REASONABLE FURTHER PROGRESS-15 PERCENT RATE OF
PROGRESS DEMONSTRATION.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-16
CONTINGENCY MEASURES.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-16
CONCLUSIONS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-17
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MAG 2017 EIGHT-HOUR OZONE MODERATE AREA PLAN
FOR THE MARICOPA NONATTAINMENT AREA
TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued)
CHAPTER PAGE
SEVEN PUBLIC PARTICIPATION. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-1
DECISION MAKING STRUCTURE.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-1
PUBLIC PARTICIPATION IN THE PREPARATION OF THE MAG
2017 MODERATE AREA OZONE PLAN FOR THE MARICOPA
NONATTAINMENT AREA. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-3
PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT PROCESS FOR TRANSPORTATION AND
AIR QUALITY. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-5
TITLE VI CONSIDERATIONS.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-6
REFERENCES.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . R-1
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MAG 2017 EIGHT-HOUR OZONE MODERATE AREA PLAN
FOR THE MARICOPA NONATTAINMENT AREA
LIST OF TABLES
TABLE PAGE
Table 3-1 Emissions From all Source Categories Included in the 2011
Periodic Emissions Inventory for Ozone Precursors Addendum,
August 2015 .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-5
Table 3-2 Ozone Monitoring Stations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-9
Table 3-3 Eight-Hour Ozone Monitoring Data Summary Three-Year Average
of the Fourth-High, 2016* (Standard: 8-Hour: 0.075 ppm). . . . . . . . . . 3-13
Table 3-4 Eight-Hour Ozone Monitoring Data Summary Three-Year Average
of the Fourth-High, 2012-2016* (Standard: 8-Hour: 0.075 ppm).. . . . . 3-14
Table 4-1 Existing Ozone Control Measures in the Maricopa Eight-Hour
Ozone Nonattainment Area.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-4
Table 4-2 Comparison of Existing Ozone Control Measures in the Maricopa
Eight-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area With the EPA Menu of
Control Measures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-14
Table 4-3 Comparison of Existing Maricopa County Air Quality Department
(MCAQD) and Sacramento Metropolitan Air Quality Management
District (SMAQMD) NOx and VOC Rules. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-39
Table 5-1 Existing Ozone Control Measures in the Maricopa Eight-Hour Ozone
Nonattainment Area. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-2
Table 6-1 Ozone Season Average Daily Emissions during May - September
in 2011 and 2017 for the Maricopa Eight-Hour Ozone
Nonattainment Area (metric tons/day).. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-3
Table 6-2 Ozone Season Average Daily Emissions during May - September
in 2011 and 2017 for the 4 km Grid Modeling Domain
(metric tons/day). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-3
Table 6-3 2011 and 2017 Design Values and Relative Response Factors
for Monitoring Sites in the Maricopa Eight-Hour Ozone
Nonattainment Area. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-10
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MAG 2017 EIGHT-HOUR OZONE MODERATE AREA PLAN
FOR THE MARICOPA NONATTAINMENT AREA
LIST OF TABLES (Continued)
TABLE PAGE
Table 6-4 Average Daily Anthropogenic VOC and NOx Emission Reductions
in 2018 for Contingency Measure Requirements (metric tons/day). . . 6-18
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MAG 2017 EIGHT-HOUR OZONE MODERATE AREA PLAN
FOR THE MARICOPA NONATTAINMENT AREA
LIST OF FIGURES
FIGURE PAGE
Figure ES-1 Eight-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area and Ozone Monitoring
Sites. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ES-3
Figure ES-2 Eight-Hour Ozone Trends (2000-2016).. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ES-4
Figure ES-3 Violations of the 0.075 ppm Eight-Hour Ozone Standard in the
Maricopa Nonattainment Area. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ES-5
Figure ES-4 Source of Volatile Organic Compound Emissions 2011 Periodic
Emissions Inventory (Ozone Season Day Emissions). . . . . . . . . . . . ES-6
Figure ES-5 Source of Nitrogen Oxide Emissions 2011 Periodic Emissions
Inventory (Ozone Season Day Emissions). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ES-7
Figure 2-1 Eight-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area and Municipal Planning
Areas.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-2
Figure 3-1 Source of Volatile Organic Compound Emissions 2011 Periodic
Emissions Inventory (Ozone Season Day Emissions). . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-3
Figure 3-2 Source of Nitrogen Oxide Emissions 2011 Periodic Emissions
Inventory (Ozone Season Day Emissions). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-4
Figure 3-3 Eight-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area and Ozone Monitoring
Sites. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-10
Figure 3-4 Eight-Hour Ozone Trends (2000-2016).. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-11
Figure 3-5 Violations of the 0.075 ppm Eight-Hour Ozone Standard in the
Maricopa Nonattainment Area. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-12
Figure 6-1 Ozone Season Average Daily VOC Emissions in 2011 and 2017
in the Maricopa Eight-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area.. . . . . . . . . . . . 6-4
Figure 6-2 Ozone Season Average Daily NOx Emissions in 2011 and 2017
in the Maricopa Eight-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area.. . . . . . . . . . . . 6-4
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MAG 2017 EIGHT-HOUR OZONE MODERATE AREA PLAN
FOR THE MARICOPA NONATTAINMENT AREA
LIST OF FIGURES (Continued)
FIGURE PAGE
Figure 6-3 Ozone Season Average Daily CO Emissions in 2011 and 2017
in the Maricopa Eight-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area.. . . . . . . . . . . . 6-5
Figure 6-4 Ozone Season Average Daily VOC Emissions in 2011 and 2017
in the 4 km Grid Modeling Domain. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-5
Figure 6-5 Ozone Season Average Daily NOx Emissions in 2011 and 2017
in the 4 km Grid Modeling Domain. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-6
Figure 6-6 Ozone Season Average Daily CO Emissions in 2011 and 2017
in the 4 km Grid Modeling Domain. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-6
Figure 6-7 Isopleth Plot of the 2017 Design Values for the Unmonitored Area
in the 4 km Grid Modeling Domain. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-11
Figure 7-1 MAG Regional Air Quality Planning Technical Process. . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-2
Figure 7-2 MAG Regional Air Quality Planning Process.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-4
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MAG 2017 EIGHT-HOUR OZONE MODERATE AREA PLAN
FOR THE MARICOPA NONATTAINMENT AREA
APPENDICES
APPENDIX A
Exhibit 1: 2011 Periodic Emissions Inventory for Ozone Precursors for the Maricopa
County, Arizona, Eight-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area. Maricopa
County Air Quality Department. February 2014. Addendum August 2015.
Exhibit 2: 2014 Periodic Emissions Inventory for Ozone Precursors for the Maricopa
County, Arizona, Eight-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area. Maricopa
County Air Quality Department. September 2016.
APPENDIX B
Exhibit 1: Technical Support Document in Support of the MAG 2017 Eight-Hour
Ozone Moderate Area Plan for the Maricopa Nonattainment Area.
Maricopa Association of Governments.
Exhibit 2: State of Arizona Fifty-Second Legislature Senate Bill 1255 and Final
Revised Fact Sheet for Senate Bill 1255.
APPENDIX C
Exhibit 1: Public Hearing Process Documentation.
Exhibit 2: Certification of Adoption and MAG Authority for Regional Air Quality
Planning.
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