Low-Carbon Development: Opportunities for Nigeria

189 Pages·2013·6.68 MB·English

by  World Bank Group

d
e
z
L ori
o h
w ut
-C A
a e
r r
b u
o s
o
n D scl
e Di
velo blic
p u
P
m
e
n
t
d
e
z
ri
o
h
ut
A
e
r
u
s
o
cl
s
Di
c
bli
u
P
DIRECTIONS IN DEVELOPMENT
d
e Countries and Regions
z
ri
o
h
ut
A
e
r
u
os Low-Carbon Development
cl
s
Di
c
Ce bli Opportunities for Nigeria
r u
v P
ig
n
i, R
o
g
ers Raffaello Cervigni, John Allen Rogers, and Max Henrion, Editors
, a
n
d d
H e
en riz
rio ho
n ut
A
e
r
u
s
o
T cl
H s
E W Di
O c
RL bli
D u
B P
A
N
K

Low-Carbon Development

Directions in Development
Countries and Regions
Low-Carbon Development
Opportunities for Nigeria
Raffaello Cervigni, John Allen Rogers, and Max Henrion, Editors
© 2013 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank
1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433
Telephone: [phone]; Internet: www.worldbank.org
Some rights reserved
1 2 3 4 16 15 14 13
This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. Note that The
World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content included in the work. The World Bank
therefore does not warrant that the use of the content contained in the work will not infringe on the rights
of third parties. The risk of claims resulting from such infringement rests solely with you.
The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views
of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank
does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and
other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank
concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.
Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and
immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved.
Rights and Permissions
This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported license (CC BY 3.0)
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0. Under the Creative Commons Attribution license, you are
free to copy, distribute, transmit, and adapt this work, including for commercial purposes, under the
following conditions:
Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: Cervigni, Raffaello, John Allen Rogers, and Max Henrion, eds.
2013. Low-Carbon Development: Opportunities for Nigeria. Directions in Development. Washington, DC:
World Bank. doi:10.1596/978-0-8213-9925-5. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0
Translations—If you create a translation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with
the attribution: This translation was not created by The World Bank and should not be considered
an official World Bank translation. The World Bank shall not be liable for any content or error in
this translation.
All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818
H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: [phone]; e-mail: [email protected].
ISBN (paper): 978-0-8213-9925-5
ISBN (electronic): 978-0-8213-9926-2
DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-9925-5
Cover image: A member of a women’s farming cooperative stands before solar panels that power her com-
munity’s drip irrigation farms. Solar market gardens provide a cost-effective, labor-saving, and clean way
of delivering much-needed irrigation water, particularly during the long, dry season. © Jennifer Burney,
Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University. Used with the permission of
Jennifer Burney / Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University. Further permis-
sion required for reuse.
Cover design: Naylor Design, Inc.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data has been requested.
Low-Carbon Development • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9925-5
Contents
Foreword by Nigeria’s Coordinating Minister for the Economy xi
Foreword by the World Bank xiii
Preface xv
Acknowledgments xvii
About the Editors xix
Abbreviations xxi
Overview 1
Main Message: A Low-Carbon Way to
Achieve Vision 20: 2020 1
The Reference Scenario: Double Carbon Emissions 2
Stabilizing Carbon Emissions 3
Setting Sector-Specific Priorities 5
Recommendations 7
Chapter 1 Introduction 13
Objectives 13
Scope and Limitations 14
Structure 15
References 16
Chapter 2 Country and Sector Background 17
GHG Emissions: Recent Estimates 18
Agriculture and Land Use Change 20
Oil and Gas Sector 21
Power Sector 21
Transport Sector 21
Note 22
References 22
Chapter 3 Research Approach and Methods 23
Comparing Scenarios 23
Selecting Low-Carbon Technologies and Interventions 24
Analysis Methods 25
Low-Carbon Development • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9925-5   v
vi Contents
Sources of Data and Key Assumptions 27
Consultations with the Nigerian Government and Other
Stakeholders 31
Notes 31
References 32
Chapter 4 Agriculture and Land Use Sector 37
Agricultural Growth Model 38
Land Use Changes 39
Sector Investments and Technological Change 41
Reference Scenario Emissions 43
Low-Carbon Scenarios 44
Recommendations for Agriculture and Land Use 51
Notes 56
References 56
Chapter 5 The Oil and Gas Sector 59
Study Results 60
The Demand for Gas 62
GHG Emissions for the Reference Scenario 69
GHG Emissions in the Low-Carbon Scenario 69
Gas Prices 72
Recommendations for Oil and Gas 74
References 75
Chapter 6 The Power Sector 77
Projecting Development of the Sector 77
The Reference Scenario 85
Low-Carbon Power Technologies 87
Low-Carbon Generation Mix 92
Demand-Side Measures in the Low-Carbon Scenario 94
Lower Power Costs in the Low-Carbon Scenario 96
GHG Emissions Reduction in the Low-Carbon Scenario 99
Assumptions about Costs of Fossil Fuel and Renewables 99
Sensitivity Analysis of the Effects of GDP
Growth on Emissions 99
Recommendations for the Power Sector 101
Note 111
References 111
Chapter 7 The Transport Sector 115
Road Transport in the Base Year 115
Reference Scenario for Transport 118
Low-Carbon Interventions for Transportation 123
Impact of the Promotion of Low-Carbon Policies 126
Low-Carbon Development • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9925-5
Contents vii
Recommendations for the Transport Sector 127
References 129
Chapter 8 Summary of Findings and Recommendations
across Sectors 131
Emissions across Sectors for the Reference Scenario 131
Emissions and Mitigation Potential for
the Low-Carbon Scenario 133
Costs and Benefits of the Low-Carbon Scenario 136
Uncertainties and Sensitivity Analysis 138
Recommendations: Reconciling Growth with
Low-Carbon Development 139
Note 148
References 148
Bibliography 149
Boxes
1.1 Nigeria and the Clean Technology Fund 14
4.1 Conservation Agriculture in Brazil and Zambia 45
4.2 Partners for a Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA)
Network in Nigeria 52
4.3 Nigeria’s Agricultural Transformation Agenda (ATA) 55
5.1 Low-Carbon Interventions for the Oil and Gas Sector 70
6.1 Estimating Off-Grid Generation and Emissions:
A Sensitivity Analysis 79
8.1 The Experience of China with Scaling Up Renewable Energy 141
8.2 Carbon Finance: A Brief Overview 143
8.3 Nigeria’s Progress toward Nationally Appropriate
Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) 146
Figures
O.1 Reference Scenario: Annual CO e Emissions to 2035 2
2
O.2 Low-Carbon Scenario: Mitigation Potential and
Residual Emissions by Sector 3
O.3 Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for Nigeria, 2010–35 6
2.1 Historical Real GDP Growth Rate 18
2.2 Emissions in Nigeria and Comparator Countries, 2005 19
2.3 Sector Composition of Nigeria GHG Emissions, 2005 20
3.1 Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for the Power Sector 27
3.2 GDP Evolution under Vision 20: 2020 and
the Reference Scenario 28
3.3 Nigeria Population Pyramids for 2010 and 2050 29
4.1 Implementation of the Nigeria Vision 20: 2020 Road Map 38
Low-Carbon Development • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9925-5
viii Contents
4.2 Reference Scenario: Relative Contributions to
Total Production Increase 39
4.3 Land Use Evolution for the Reference Scenario, 2010–35 42
4.4 Evolution of the Annual Emissions in the Reference Scenario by
Agricultural Activity, 2010–35 44
4.5 Low-Carbon Scenario: Relative Contributions to
Total Production Increase 47
4.6 Agricultural Mitigation Potential by Subsector for
Two Low-Carbon Scenarios 49
4.7 Capacity Building Model 53
5.1 Historical Oil and Gas Production and Flared Gas Volumes 60
5.2 Oil and Gas GHG Emissions by Source, 2010 60
5.3 Reference Scenario Oil and Gas GHG Emissions by Source 61
5.4 Reference Case Projected Demand for Gas for On-Site Use 63
5.5 Projected Production of Oil and Condensate for
Existing and New JV and PSC Fields 65
5.6 Associated Gas (AG) Production 67
5.7 Gas Demand and Supply Projections 68
5.8 Reference Scenario: Oil and Gas GHG Emissions by Source 69
5.9 Low-Carbon Scenario: Emissions Reductions from Oil and Gas 72
5.10 Revenues and Costs for the Low-Carbon Scenario 73
6.1 Annual Per Capita Electricity Use vs. Income for
120 Countries, 2008; Nigeria Projections, 2008–35 78
6.2 Projected Grid and Off-Grid Power Consumption, Reference
Scenario 80
6.3 Levelized Fuel Costs over Plant Lifetimes, 2009 83
6.4 LCOE Projections for Grid Supply Technologies 83
6.5 Projected LCOE for Off-Grid Technologies in Nigeria 84
6.6 Reference Scenario: Electricity Generation by Technology 86
6.7 Reference Scenario: Emissions by Generation Technology 87
6.8 Total Carbon Emissions in the Reference and BAU Scenarios 87
6.9 Potential Energy Savings from EE Programs in the
Low-Carbon Option 97
6.10 Total Annual Electricity Expenditure for Reference and
Low-Carbon Scenarios as Percentage of GDP 97
6.11 Breakdown of Total Expenditure into Capital, O&M, and
Fuel Costs 98
6.12 Projected Reductions of Emissions in the Low-Carbon Scenario 100
7.1 Composition of Vehicle Fleet and Vehicle Uses 117
7.2 Base Year Fuel Consumption by Vehicle and Fuel Type 119
7.3 Car Ownership vs. Income in Various Countries:
Nigeria in 2010 and 2035 120
7.4 Effect of Low and High Car Ownership Trajectories on
GHG emissions 121
7.5 CO e Emissions over the Study Period 122
2
Low-Carbon Development • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9925-5