Lloyd's Actuarial Annual Seminar Nov 2015

87 Pages·2015·3.4 MB·English

by  Thomas, Ben

Lloyd’s Actuarial Seminar

06 November 2015
© Lloyd’s 2012
Agenda

9:30 – 9:40 Welcome and Introduction
Henry Johnson, MRC

9:40 – 10:10 Catastrophe Model Stability
Sundeep Chahal, Exposure Management

10:10 – 10:50 ORSA – Lloyd’s Review Activity
Neil Griffiths & Tim Hewitt, Risk Management

10:50 – 11:20 Coffee Break

11:20– 12:00 Reserving Minimum Standards
Lydia Rhodes, MRC

12:00 – 12:40 Emerging Risk: Connected, complex, concentrated
Nick Beecroft, Exposure Management

12:40 Wrap up and questions
© Lloyd’s 2012
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Catastrophe Model Stability
Sundeep Chahal
Manager, Lloyd’s Catastrophe Model
©© LLllooyydd’’ss 33
Catastrophe Modelling - Modules

Hazard Vulnerability Financial

Policy Conditions

o Excess
ita
R Limits
e
g
a % Share
m
a
D
Wind speed
© Lloyd’s 4
Catastrophe Modelling - Output
Event Loss Table Year Loss Table
© Lloyd’s 5
Catastrophe Modelling - Output

y
t
i
l
i
b
a
b
o
r
P

e
c
n
a
d
e
e
c
x
E
Loss
© Lloyd’s 6
Hazard - Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone
► Often two views of event frequencies

– Long term average

– Current climate / Sea Surface Temperature (SST)
© Lloyd’s 7
Hazard - Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone
Examples of drivers behind changes

► Data
– HURDAT

► Better understanding of science
– Basin activity vs landfall
– Cyclical nature
– Shift in climate

© Lloyd’s 8
HURDAT
► National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

► Produced by NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division

► What does it contain?
– Storm data going back to 1851
– Date / time
– Lat / Long
– Landfall
– Max sustained wind
– Etc.

© Lloyd’s 9
HURDAT

Source: HURDAT © Lloyd’s 10