Living with floods

284 Pages·2013·2.91 MB·English

by  Caroline Wenger

Synthesis and Integrative Research
Final report
Living with floods: Key lessons
from Australia and abroad
Caroline Wenger, Karen Hussey
and Jamie Pittock
LIVING WITH FLOODS:
KEY LESSONS FROM AUSTRALIA AND ABROAD

THE AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY

AUTHORS
Caroline Wenger (Australian National University)
Karen Hussey (Australian National University)
Jamie Pittock (Australian National University)
Published by the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility 2013
ISBN: 978-1-921609-89-3 Publication 18/13
Australian copyright law applies. For permission to reproduce any part of this document, please
approach the authors.
Please cite this report as
Wenger, C, Hussey, K & Pittock J 2013, Living with floods: Key lessons from Australia and abroad,
National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, 267 pp.
Acknowledgements
This work was carried out with financial support from the Australian Government (Department of
Climate Change and Energy Efficiency) and the National Climate Change Adaptation Research
Facility.
The role of NCCARF is to lead the research community in a national interdisciplinary effort to
generate the information needed by decision makers in government, business and in vulnerable
sectors and communities to manage the risk of climate change impacts.
The authors acknowledge the contribution to this report of the project end-users committee, including
Neil McBeath, John Schauble, Ian Rutherfurd, Dorean Erhart, Graeme Milligan, John Ridgway,
Samantha Capon, Andrew Gissing, and Karl Sullivan. Great thanks are also due to the many experts
who gave up their time to participate in interviews, and to those who provided material for case
studies. The latter include Adriaan Stander of Wagga Wagga City Council, Peter Kennedy of Leeton
Shire Council and Nick Heath and Sean Hoobin of World Wide Fund for Nature.
Thanks are owed to Professor John Handmer, RMIT University Melbourne who provided feedback on
the draft. Staff from the Australian National University who assisted include Professor Steven Dovers
who provided support and advice, Dr Will Grant who assisted with science communication, and Dr
Michael Eburn who advised on legal aspects.
The authors would also like to acknowledge the support of international experts in flood management
who provided references and feedback on drafts, including Professor Guangchun Lei of Beijing
Forestry University, China, Professor Toine Smits of Radboud University, Nijmegen, the Netherlands
and Professor Gerald Galloway of the University of Maryland, USA.
Disclaimer
The views expressed herein are not necessarily the views of the Commonwealth, and the
Commonwealth does not accept responsibility for any information or advice contained herein.
Cover image Road flooding in outer Brisbane area © Liese Coulter
Erratum notice (added 21 August 2013) Amendment of cost figures and associated text and
references.
Page Item Correction
iv Duplicated 'Appendix 3' deleted and replaced with Table change of contents heading
A3.1
47 text (para 4) change of text
203 text (para 5) change of text
223 Bibliography: add one citation (9th) and amend another change of bibliography
(10th) to include URL
225 Bibliography: add one citation (3rd) change of bibliography
227 Bibliography: amend citation (8th) to include URL; amend change of bibliography
citation (14th) to include ministerial number and department
228 Bibliography: add one citation (17th) change of bibliography
CONTENTS
ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................ V
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................................................... VI
Review processes and treatment of climate change ........................................................... vi
Australian review findings .................................................................................................... vi
Overseas findings ............................................................................................................... vii
Interviews with Australian experts ..................................................................................... viii
1 INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY ..................................................................... 1
1.1 Methodology ................................................................................................................ 1
1.2 Literature review .......................................................................................................... 1
1.3 Interviews .................................................................................................................... 3
1.4 End-users committee .................................................................................................. 3
2 SETTING THE SCENE .................................................................................................. 4
2.1 Impacts of climate change on flooding in Eastern Australia ........................................ 4
2.1.1 Queensland .......................................................................................................... 5
2.1.2 NSW ..................................................................................................................... 6
2.1.3 Victoria ................................................................................................................. 6
2.2 Other factors likely to influence flooding ..................................................................... 7
2.3 Adaptation to changing flood behaviour: natural variability versus climate change .... 7
2.3.1 Natural variation ................................................................................................... 8
2.3.2 Climate change .................................................................................................... 9
2.3.3 Adaptation approaches ...................................................................................... 10
3 OVERVIEW OF REVIEWS .......................................................................................... 11
3.1 Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry .............................................................. 11
3.2 Brisbane flood, January 2011: Independent Review of Brisbane City Council’s
response, 9–22 January 2011 ................................................................................... 12
3.2.1 Context ............................................................................................................... 12
3.3 Victorian Review of the 2010–11 Flood Warnings and Response ............................ 13
3.4 Environment and Natural Resources Committee Inquiry into Flood Mitigation
Infrastructure in Victoria ............................................................................................ 14
3.5 Evaluation of review terms of reference and the extent to which they are covered in
reports ....................................................................................................................... 15
4 REVIEW OF ADAPTATION MEASURES IDENTIFIED IN AUSTRALIAN FLOOD
REVIEWS ............................................................................................................................. 17
4.1 Flood prevention and mitigation ................................................................................ 17
4.1.1 Dam management .............................................................................................. 17
4.1.2 Development planning ........................................................................................ 19
Legislative framework .................................................................................................... 20
4.1.3 Improved materials and design .......................................................................... 32
Living with floods: key lessons from Australia and abroad i
Building codes and standards ........................................................................................ 32
4.1.4 Betterment .......................................................................................................... 36
4.1.5 Engineering solutions ......................................................................................... 38
4.1.6 Land management ............................................................................................. 43
4.1.7 Rebuilding elsewhere ......................................................................................... 47
4.2 Preparation and planning .......................................................................................... 48
4.2.1 Community resilience ......................................................................................... 48
4.2.2 Emergency management planning ..................................................................... 50
4.3 Emergency response ................................................................................................ 53
4.3.1 Forecasts, warnings and community response .................................................. 53
Coverage of warning ...................................................................................................... 53
4.3.2 Emergency management framework.................................................................. 57
4.3.3 Essential infrastructure ....................................................................................... 62
4.3.4 Isolation, evacuation ........................................................................................... 63
4.3.5 Mining activities .................................................................................................. 64
4.4 Recovery ................................................................................................................... 65
4.4.1 Insurance ............................................................................................................ 66
4.4.2 Recovery arrangements ..................................................................................... 68
4.5 Literature review findings .......................................................................................... 70
5 INTERVIEWS ............................................................................................................... 73
5.1 Interview methodology .............................................................................................. 73
5.1.1 Interview rationale and selection of interviewees ............................................... 73
5.1.2 Interviewee codes .............................................................................................. 73
5.1.3 Interview methodology ....................................................................................... 74
5.1.4 Interview analysis ............................................................................................... 74
5.2 Warm-up questions ................................................................................................... 75
5.3 Questions on flood inquiries ...................................................................................... 80
5.4 Questions on efficacy of different measures for climate change adaptation and
priorities ..................................................................................................................... 86
Question 4. Do you have any opinions on how Australia should to adapt to a climate
change scenario ................................................................................................. 86
5.4.1 Understanding of climate change impacts on flooding by interviewees ............. 86
5.4.2 Attitudes to climate change ................................................................................ 87
5.4.3 Climate change uncertainty ................................................................................ 90
5.4.4 Flood studies, mapping, modelling and risk assessment ................................... 91
5.4.5 Development planning ........................................................................................ 94
5.4.6 On the appropriateness of the 1 in 100 year event standard ............................. 98
5.4.7 Reducing risks for existing development .......................................................... 100
5.4.8 Relocation ........................................................................................................ 101
5.4.9 Structural measures ......................................................................................... 103
ii Living with floods: key lessons from Australia and abroad
5.4.10 Infrastructure .................................................................................................... 106
5.4.11 Velocity ............................................................................................................. 107
5.4.12 A catchment systems approach and using natural assets ............................... 109
5.4.13 Flood warnings and response .......................................................................... 116
5.4.14 Community resilience ....................................................................................... 117
5.4.15 Insurance .......................................................................................................... 120
5.4.16 Which measures are most cost-effective .......................................................... 122
5.4.17 Professional training ......................................................................................... 126
5.4.18 Research needs ............................................................................................... 126
5.4.19 Maladaptive approaches ................................................................................... 128
Question 4. Do you have any opinions on how Australia should to adapt to a climate
change scenario that predicts floods of changing frequency or magnitude? .... 128
Question 4b. The types of measures or approaches to avoid .................................... 128
5.4.20 Flood institutions ............................................................................................... 130
Question 4c. Any perceptions regarding institutions, emergency policies or
organisational structures that could help Australia to manage flood events that
are less predictable? ........................................................................................ 130
5.4.21 Resourcing ........................................................................................................ 138
Question 4d. Resourcing mechanisms suitable for less predictable flood events (for
both prevention/preparedness and response/recovery phases) ...................... 138
5.4.22 Community incentives ....................................................................................... 145
Question 4e. Barriers and opportunities for communities wishing to reduce their risk and
vulnerability to less predictable flood events .................................................... 145
Question 5. Can you suggest any case study opportunities for points you have made?
......................................................................................................................... 147
5.5 Questions on communication of results to user groups .......................................... 148
Question 6. What do you think would be the most effective methods of communicating
lessons for climate change adaptation and limits to adaptation in your industry?
......................................................................................................................... 148
5.6 Analysis ................................................................................................................... 152
5.6.1 Development planning ...................................................................................... 152
5.6.2 Community resilience ....................................................................................... 155
5.6.3 Relocation and buybacks ................................................................................. 156
5.6.4 Structural approaches ...................................................................................... 157
5.6.5 Ecosystems approaches .................................................................................. 157
5.6.6 Response issues .............................................................................................. 158
5.6.7 Mitigation funding, disaster relief and betterment ............................................. 159
5.6.8 Insurance .......................................................................................................... 160
5.6.9 Conclusion ........................................................................................................ 161
6 OVERSEAS STUDIES ............................................................................................... 162
6.1 China ....................................................................................................................... 162
6.1.1 The resources selected .................................................................................... 162
Living with floods: key lessons from Australia and abroad iii
6.1.2 Chinese approaches to flood management ...................................................... 162
6.1.3 Assessment of the applicability to Australia of Chinese approaches ............... 168
6.2 The Netherlands ...................................................................................................... 169
6.2.1 The resources selected .................................................................................... 169
6.2.2 Similarities to Australian reviews ...................................................................... 170
6.2.3 Different approaches ........................................................................................ 173
6.2.4 Assessment of the applicability of the Netherlands approaches to Australia ... 179
6.3 United States ........................................................................................................... 181
6.3.1 The resources selected .................................................................................... 181
6.3.2 Review processes ............................................................................................ 182
6.3.3 Approaches to flood management.................................................................... 182
6.3.4 Climate change and other future flood risks ..................................................... 183
6.3.5 Structural approaches ...................................................................................... 184
6.3.6 Dams ................................................................................................................ 184
6.3.7 Levees .............................................................................................................. 185
6.3.8 1:100 flood standard and development controls............................................... 194
6.3.9 The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) ................................................ 197
6.3.10 Disaster relief and mitigation funding ............................................................... 199
6.3.11 Relocation ........................................................................................................ 203
6.3.12 Resilience ......................................................................................................... 204
6.3.13 Floodplain restoration and ecosystem approaches to flood management ....... 206
6.3.14 Costs, benefits and co-benefits ........................................................................ 208
6.4 Assessment of the applicability of US approaches to Australia .............................. 211
7 EMERGING ISSUES ................................................................................................. 218
REFERENCES ................................................................................................................... 220
APPENDIX 1: TOPIC GUIDE FOR INTERVIEWS ............................................................. 230
APPENDIX 2: INTERNATIONAL ADVISERS AND END-USERS COMMITTEE .............. 232
APPENDIX 3: EXPLANATORY NOTES TO TABLE OF CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION
MEASURES FOR FLOODING ........................................................................................... 233
Table A3.1: Living with floods: adaptation measures .................................................. 235
iv Living with floods: key lessons from Australia and abroad
ABSTRACT
Following the serious flood events in Queensland and Victoria in 2010–11, and the reviews
that were undertaken subsequently, this project was developed to analyse those reviews to
determine whether they offered any lessons for climate change adaptation. Focusing on four
major and recent reviews, but drawing on others as well, the project’s objectives were to:

• explain the relationships between floods and climate variability, and climate change
adaptation
• synthesise the findings from the flood inquiries in Victoria and Queensland by
ordering key lessons into frameworks that aid climate change adaptation by end-
users
• check the lessons from these Australian inquiries against lessons for more effective
flood-risk management that have been identified overseas to explore positive
synergies and differences
• refine the draft research finding with advice from end-users through interviews and a
committee, and
• communicate the lessons for climate change adaptation and limits to adaptation with
key end-users involved in flood risk management.

In addition to analysing the Australian flood reviews, the project also compared review
processes and findings with similar processes overseas, including those in the Netherlands,
China and the United States, to determine points of similarity that reinforced Australian
findings and to explore differences. In addition to analysing the reviews themselves, the
project team also conducted a series of semi-structured, in-depth interviews with relevant
sectors, including insurance, emergency services, floodplain managers, ecosystem
researchers, local government and urban utilities.
The reviews varied greatly in their scope, but one of the most notable findings was that
Australian reviews virtually ignored the issue of climate change and its impact on flooding;
some reports didn’t refer to it at all. The vast majority of recommendations in all reviews
pointed to a need for better governance, coordination, integration, policies, strategies,
management, management tools, standards, legislation, accountabilities, oversight,
communication, resourcing, risk-assessment, planning, education and training. These are all
socio-institutional issues, which are vital for the effective implementation of any adaptation
measures. In contrast to the Australian reviews, climate change was a driving force behind
the international reviewers, and all three international reviews overwhelmingly pointed to a
need for ecosystem approaches to flood control. Each of the reports from the Netherlands,
the United States and China had important lessons for Australia’s flood policies, particularly
in relation to structural versus non-structural measures, the role of disaster relief funds, flood
insurance and the use of mitigation measures such as voluntary land purchase and
relocation.
Living with floods: key lessons from Australia and abroad v
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2010–11 saw some of the biggest flood events in Australia’s history, with approximately 80%
of Queensland declared a disaster zone and extensive flooding in other eastern states,
notably Victoria. The large scale of events, the number of lives lost and the scale of the
damage incurred prompted numerous inquiries and review processes by different
governments and organisations. As climate change is expected to increase the severity and
likelihood of flooding events in the future, a project was developed to analyse these reviews
to determine whether they offered any lessons for climate change adaptation.

This report focused on four of the recent reviews, though others were also referenced:
• Brisbane City Council’s Flood Response Review Board report (Brisbane Review)
• the Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry (Queensland Inquiry)
• the Victorian Review of the 2010–11 Flood Warnings and Response (Victorian
Review)
• the Parliament of Victoria’s Environment and Natural Resources Committee Inquiry
into Flood Mitigation Infrastructure in Victoria (ENRC Inquiry).

The project compared review processes and findings with similar processes overseas,
including in the Netherlands, China and the United States, to determine points of similarity
that reinforced Australian findings and to explore differences. It also conducted a series of
semi-structured, in-depth interviews with relevant sectors, including insurance, emergency
services, floodplain managers, ecosystem researchers, local government and urban utilities.
These interviews were used to validate the research and to obtain a deeper understanding
of issues relevant to climate change adaptation to flooding. An end-users committee was
used to guide research and to identify project communication needs.
The project used the Prevention–Preparation–Response–Recovery (PPRR) framework
commonly used in emergency management to assess measures. This enables findings to be
presented in a way that is readily understood by end-users. As it also represents a
sequential timeframe, it enables assessment of which phase of intervention is most effective.
Consideration was also given to questions of cost-effectiveness, multiple benefits and the
relative merits of structural and non-structural approaches in different circumstances. Some
of the key findings are outlined below.
Review processes and treatment of climate change
One of the most notable findings was that Australian reviews virtually ignored the issue of
climate change and its impact on flooding; some reports didn’t refer to it at all. The ENRC
Inquiry was the only one of the four to make a definitive statement on climate change effects
on flooding when setting the context for the review, but even it did not assess the suitability
of the measures it proposed to address future threats. This contrasts markedly with overseas
reviews, where concerns that climate change will significantly worsen future flooding are
generally a driving force behind the process – as reflected in their terms of reference.
Australian review findings
Australian reviews varied greatly in their scope. The Queensland Inquiry and the Brisbane
Review covered all PPRR phases. The Victorian Review was very much focused on
response, though preparation and immediate recovery were also covered. The ENRC
Inquiry focused on selected aspects of prevention, largely constrained by its terms of
reference to consideration of infrastructure.
Perhaps because the reviews concentrate on analysing an event just passed, they appear to
under-estimate future risks and adaptation needs. These risks are not only due to climate
vi Living with floods: key lessons from Australia and abroad