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Living Standards and the Wealth of Nations: Successes and Failures in Real Convergence PDF

443 Pages·2006·7.41 MB·English
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49476Balcerowicz 3/16/06 8:53 AM Page 1 economics Leszek Balcerowicz is President of the National Bank of Poland. As Finance Minister in the first post-transition L iving Standards and Living Standards and Polish government, he was largely responsible for the Wealth of Nations the Wealth of Nations the successful transformation of the Polish economy. successes and failures Stanley Fischer is Governor of the Bank of Israel. successes and failures in real convergence He has also served as Vice Chairman of Citigroup, Inc., in real convergence edited by First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, and Killian Professor and Head of the Leszek Balcerowicz and Department of Economics at MIT. ed i ted by Stanley F ischer Leszek Balcerowicz and Stanley F ischer Contributors The question of convergence, or under what conditions the per capita income levels of developing countries can Anders Åslund Stanley Fischer Stephen L. Parente Athanasios Vamvakidis catch up to those found in advanced economies, is Leszek Balcerowicz Leonardo Hernández T. Edward C. Prescott José Maria Viñals critical for understanding economic growth and devel- Manuel Balmaseda Philip E. Keefer Jacek Rostowski Wing Thye Woo opment. Convergence has happened in many countries Iain Begg Olle Krantz Isaac Sabethai Nikolai Zoubanov and appears to be taking place now in China and John Bradley Abel Moreira Mateus Miguel Sebastián India—yet, in general, per capita income levels in the Vittorio Corbo L. Thomas O’Connell Diarmaid Smyth poorer countries do not converge toward those of richer countries as uniformly as the analytical models predict. Living Standards and the Wealth of Nations, which grew out of a 2003 conference on convergence hosted by the National Bank of Poland, offers detailed theoretical and empirical examinations of what makes for successful convergence. After general discussions of the theoretical requirements for “rapid catch up” and the possible link between democ- racy and growth, the book presents global case studies of both non-EU and EU countries, including a provoca- tive comparison of growth in the transition economies of the CEE (Central and Eastern Europe) nations and the 12 non-Baltic states of the former Soviet Union. It then considers nominal as opposed to real convergence in the European Monetary Union. Taken together, the chapters present a consistent argument that reliance on market forces within an open economy in a stable macroeco- The MIT Press 0-262-02595-7 nomic environment, with assured property rights, is the Massachusetts Institute of Technology key to rapid economic growth. ,!7IA2G2-acfjfj!:t;K;k;K;k Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142 http:// mitpress.mit.edu Balcerowicz and Living Standards and Fischer editors the Wealth of Nations Living Standards and the Wealth of Nations Living Standards and the Wealth of Nations Successes and Failures in Real Convergence edited by Leszek Balcerowicz and Stanley Fischer The MIT Press Cambridge, Massachusetts London, England ( 2006 Massachusetts Institute of Technology All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or informa- tion storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from the publisher. MIT Press books may be purchased at special quantity discounts for business or sales promotional use. For information, please email Contents Contributors vii I Some General Remarks on the Process of Catching Up 1 Introduction and Summary 3 Leszek Balcerowicz and Stanley Fischer 1 What a Country Must Do to Catch Up to the Industrial Leaders 17 Stephen L. Parente and Edward C. Prescott 2 Elections, Political Checks and Balances, and Growth 41 Philip Keefer II Case Studies of Successes and Failures in Catching Up 55 3 The Nordic Countries in the Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries: Economic Growth in a Comparative Perspective 57 Olle Krantz 4 The Experimentalist-Convergence Debate on Interpreting China’s Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Perspective 73 Wing Thye Woo 5 Successes and Failures in Real Convergence: The Case of Chile 115 Vittorio Corbo L. and Leonardo Herna´ndez T. 6 Economic Resurgence in the Commonwealth of Independent States 147 Anders A˚ slund vi Contents III Consequences of Accession to the EuropeanUnion: Case Studies 175 7 Spain in the EU: The Key Issues 177 Jose´ Maria Vin˜ als 8 The Spanish Experience in the European Union 205 Manuel Balmaseda and Miguel Sebastia´n 9 Portugal’s Convergence Process: Lessons for Accession Countries 231 Abel Moreira Mateus 10 Greece: The Long Process of Economic and Institutional Convergence 251 Isaac D. Sabethai 11 The Convergence Experience of the Greek Economy in the EU: Lessons for EU Accession Countries 269 Athanasios Vamvakidis 12 Real Convergence within the European Union: The Case of Ireland 285 Thomas O’Connell and Diarmaid Smyth 13 Irish Economic Development in an International Perspective 309 John Bradley IV EMU Entry and Economic Growth 329 14 When Should the Central Europeans Join the EMU? Reconciling Real and Nominal Convergence 331 Jacek Rostowski and Nikolai Zoubanov 15 Is Full Participation in the EMU Likely to Favor or Slow Real Convergence? 365 Iain Begg V Conclusion 393 16 Concluding Comments 395 Leszek Balcerowicz Index 415 Contributors Anders A˚ slund, Carnegie Endowment Edward C. Prescott, Federal Reserve for International Peace Bank of Minneapolis, Arizona State University Leszek Balcerowicz, President, National Bank of Poland Jacek Rostowski, Central European University in Budapest Manuel Balmaseda, Research Department, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Isaac D. Sabethai, Bank of Greece Argentaria Miguel Sebastia´n, Universidad Iain Begg, European Institute at the Complutense de Madrid London School of Economics and Diarmaid Smyth, Financial Services Political Science Authority of Ireland John Bradley, Economic and Social Athanasios Vamvakidis, International Research Institute Monetary Fund Vittorio Corbo L., Central Bank of Jose´ Maria Vin˜ als, Bank of Spain Chile Wing Thye Woo, University of Stanley Fischer, Vice Chairman, California at Davis Citigroup Inc. Nikolai Zoubanov, University of Leonardo Herna´ndez T., Central Bank Birmingham of Chile Philip Keefer, World Bank Olle Krantz, University of Umea˚ Abel Moreira Mateus, Bank of Portugal, New University of Lisbon Thomas O’Connell, Central Bank of Ireland Stephen L. Parente, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign I Some General Remarks on the Process of Catching Up

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