Living buildings The future of offce buildings until 2050 Publisher infuture hatalska foresight institute al. Grunwaldzka 27b, 80-309 Gdańsk http://infuture.institute Concept, defnition of problems and scenarios, content supervision Natalia Hatalska Content and research analysis Aleksandra Trapp Qualitative study Monika Jaskulska Coordination Marek Gawdzik Editing and correction Urszula Łupińska Graphic design Dorota Szweda Partner of the report Skanska Table of contents 4 Introduction 5 Methodology 18 For the PeoPle & by the PeoPle (inClusion & divErsity)/ 40 in symbiosis with naturE 74 indEPEndEnt & sElf-suffiCiEnt 94 adaPtability & flExibility 130 invisiblE arChitECturE 149 Key factors of change infuencing the future of offce buildings Introduction eW yam tno l wy a a s is l ear i s h t , tbu rve e y n gih t tah t is happening today actually infuences what our fu- ture is going to look like. For example, the advances in work automation, which have been talked about particularly often recently, infuence the future look of offce buildings and, consequently, our cities. After all, today, we usually build offce blocks which are tall and have a lot of panes. This is because people need access to daylight for their work comfort. This generates enormous costs for construction compa- nies and has an impact on the quality of life in cities. Tall buildings cast a shadow, take up space, eliminate greenery from cities, prevent one from seeing the sky – ot s ya n gih t n o fo h t reo melb o p sr e t da le r ( ot , ne gr e y trend of inclusiveness and diversity that is extremely fo r ) elp m a x e g e n e t r e da yb h t m e . tBu fi ni h t e ,efr t u u s o n r gt ta epr st n e . w o r k i s p re f o r m e d yb bo t r o s nseai t d fo p e ,elpo w e Another great value of the report is the fact that one may imagine that we will be able to construct buil- of the research methods used in it has been the so- ngi sd no ,ndru gr ed u f o r botr o s od tno n e e d thgi y la d called speculative design. Offce blocks of the future ot work . have been designed for each of the respective scena- Of course, there are many more such factors of chan- rios in cooperation with the Faculty of Architecture of ge, including, among others: depletion of resources, the Gdańsk University of Technology. Those designs energy crisis, lack of contact with nature, knowledge not only allow to imagine the coming future better, -based economy, innovation culture, nomadic lifesty- but also ask the question of whether that future is tru- le, and the threat of terrorism and declining sense of ly one we desire. I shall leave you with that question security. We have analysed them in the report which as well. I hope that you will fnd this report interesting oy u era n gi h dlo t hrg i . n wo a s a t le r ,su w e epr s t ne h e - not only in its research aspect, but actually provoking rein fve scenarios in which buildings are changeable deeper refections on where we are today and where over time, invisible, self-suffcient, built in harmony w e era n hg i e a .d with nature and inclusive. Each scenario requires a different amount of time to be carried out. The most I wi hs oy u a g o o d ea r , d distant in time is the Invisible Architecture scenario n aitl a a Hatkls a a – due to the not yet fully developed technological ca- iet si ; l ibp a h t e on e ni ro u m o s t et m am e i i d efr t u u i s fo r the People and by the People – which falls into the Gdańsk, November 2017 4 I n f u t u r e H ata l s k a f o r e s I g H t I n s t I t u t e Methodology The following report, published by infuture ha- talska foresight institute and Skanska is an at- tempt to answer the question concerning the future of offce buildings. The report presents fve different scenarios from a mid-term and lon- g-term perspective. The scenarios included in this report were deve- loped with the use of several research methods, including: environment scanning, signals based forecasting, and qualitative research (in-depth expert interviews). Change factors were analy- sed according to the STEEP model (sociological – technological – economic – environmental – political). Additionally, the scenarios are based on specula- tive design research developed by students from the Department of Architecture of the Gdańsk University of Technology. Designing solutions for problems that don’t really exist yet, they helped us gain a broader overview of occurring changes and diagnose long-term trends (like, for instan- ce, living buildings). On the one hand, specula- tive design showed us possible development paths (also by presenting us new technologies in architecture and civil engineering, e.g. meta- materials), and on the other hand – it made us 1. Speculative design uses conventional design tools and methodology, which ask ourselves some questions: is this the future yields results which are sometimes indistinguishable from a prototype ready for implementation, which forces the recipient to refect on occurring we want, the future we fear, or the future we’re changes in various areas. waiting for? I N F u T u R E H ATA L S K A F o R E S I G H T I N S T I T u T E 5 Scenarios of the future for the People & by the People (inclusion & diversity) –– offce building will have to become more open and fesu lu ro f suoremun ,sesoprup gnikat erom dna erom into account the age, gender, experiences and needs of tnere fid f spuorg fo .elpoep t sih re v y esre vid dna -ore teh geneous society of tenants and local people that belong to a given space will become even more important. The local society will participate more and in the life of fa- cilities and offce buildings, making spaces useful even refa t dradnats gnikro w .sruoh in symbiosis with nature – this scenario predicts that all f erutu sgnidliub liw eb ”nerg„ dna taht y eht era gniog to make use of multiple solutions based on so-called “green infrastructure” (green terraces, roofs, plant-cov- ered façades, indoor or outdoor gardens, plant-covered .)sla w a l fo siht liw e kam nerg“ ”saera erom naht tsuj decorations. This scenario includes a total change in the ways of thinking and the need to come back to nature. 6 I n f u t u r e H ata l s k a f o r e s I g H t I n s t I t u t e independent & self-suffcient – it’s based on the as- sumption that in the future every building will be an au- tonomous unit, meaning that it will be able to function independent of outside infrastructure. The buildings will be delivering 100% of the energy demand, according to the needs of their inhabitants. In such offce buildings, the sense of security of their users will be very high, as it will not be possible to hinder its functioning in case of any unexpected events: cataclysms, sudden weather changes, terrorist attacks or even ordinary malfunctions. adaptability & flexibility – it predicts that all future buildings will be changing in time, fexible, never com- pletely defned, and adjustable to their users (when it comes to their shape and functionality). This scenario is currently driven by trends such as: modularity, mul- tifunctionality, dynamics and adaptation. Advanced technologies make it possible for buildings to transform freely depending on current needs of their tenants or the number of teams working there. invisible architecture – it assumes that buildings are becoming “invisible” to people in cities. They don’t only blend in with the environment without disturbing the space around them – thanks to applying innovative solutions and technologies they almost disappear from cities. This scenario is also an answer to ever decreas- ing spaces in cities and architectural mess, and it corre- sponds strongly to the ever-stronger notion of respect towards cultural heritage and urban landscape. I N F u T u R E H ATA L S K A F o R E S I G H T I N S T I T u T E 7 t sdner no eht enilemit Prepared by: infuture hatalska foresight institute 2017. 8 I n f u t u r e H ata l s k a f o r e s I g H t I n s t I t u t e I N F u T u R E H ATA L S K A F o R E S I G H T I N S T I T u T E 9 Offce space today — a summary of a qualitative yd u t s In August 2017, infuture hatalska foresight institute a consulting company, the organizers of a national conducted in-depth interviews with company re- conference, an enterprise dealing with service design, presentatives and employees who use offce spaces a company providing services in PR and social media, r ey v e y a d dn a ht i w se v i t a t n e s e r p e r fo sr o t a r t s i n i m d a and a company that offers services in personal deve- managing offce space. The interviewees included: an tne m p o l d n a tn e v e .n o i t a z i n a g r o a ll f o eh t e v o b a er e w international corporation providing fnancial services, using offce spaces of diverse sizes – from entire buil- a Polish online medium with several offces in Poland, dings through a single foor in an offce building to ren- a company dealing with tax advisory and audit, ting a single desk in a coworking space. Facebook offce in Menlo Park (California, usa) Source: newsroom.fb.com 10 I n f u t u r e H ata l s k a f o r e s I g H t I n s t I t u t e