Lives Saved by FMVSS & Other Vehicle Safety Technologies, 1960-2002 Pass. Cars & Light Trucks

432 Pages·2005·2.12 MB·English

by  Chuck Kahane

DOT HS 809 833 October 2004
Technical Report
Lives Saved by the Federal Motor Vehicle
Safety Standards and Other Vehicle Safety
Technologies, 1960-2002
Passenger Cars and Light Trucks
With a Review of 19 FMVSS and their Effectiveness in
Reducing Fatalities, Injuries and Crashes
This document is available to the public from the National Technical Information Service, Springfield, Virginia 22161
The United States Government does not endorse products or
manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers’ names appear only
because they are considered essential to the object of this report.
Technical Report Documentation Page

1. Report No. 2. Government Accession No. 3. Recipient’s Catalog No.

DOT HS 809 833
4. Title and Subtitle 5. Report Date

Lives Saved by the Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards and October 2004
Other Vehicle Safety Technologies, 1960-2002 – Passenger Cars and 6. Performing Organization Code
Light Trucks – With a Review of 19 FMVSS and their Effectiveness
in Reducing Fatalities, Injuries and Crashes
7. Author(s) 8. Performing Organization Report No.

Charles J. Kahane, Ph.D.
9. Performing Organization Name and Address 10. Work Unit No. (TRAIS)

Evaluation Division; National Center for Statistics and Analysis
11. Contract or Grant No.
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
Washington, DC 20590
12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address 13. Type of Report and Period Covered

Department of Transportation NHTSA Technical Report
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration 14. Sponsoring Agency Code
Washington, DC 20590
15. Supplementary Notes

16. Abstract

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) began to evaluate its Federal Motor
Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS) in 1975. By October 2004, NHTSA had evaluated the effectiveness
of virtually all the life-saving technologies introduced in passenger cars, pickup trucks, sport utility
vehicles and vans from about 1960 up through the later 1990’s. A statistical model estimates the number
of lives saved from 1960 to 2002 by the combination of these life-saving technologies. Fatality Analysis
Reporting System (FARS) data for 1975-2002 document the actual crash fatalities in vehicles that,
especially in recent years, include many safety technologies. Using NHTSA’s published effectiveness
estimates, the model estimates how many people would have died if the vehicles had not been equipped
with any of the safety technologies. In addition to equipment meeting specific FMVSS, the model tallies
lives saved by installations in advance of the FMVSS, back to 1960, and by non-compulsory
improvements, such as the redesign of mid and lower instrument panels. FARS data have been available
since 1975, but an extension of the model allows estimates of lives saved in 1960-1974.
Vehicle safety technologies saved an estimated 328,551 lives from 1960 through 2002. The annual
number of lives saved grew quite steadily from 115 in 1960, when a small number of people used lap
belts, to 24,561 in 2002, when most cars and light trucks were equipped with numerous modern safety
technologies and belt use on the road achieved 75 percent.
17. Key Words 18. Distribution Statement

Document is available to the public through the
FARS; statistical analysis; evaluation; benefits;
National Technical Information Service,
effectiveness; fatality reduction; injury reduction;
Springfield, Virginia 22161
crashworthiness; crash avoidance

19. Security Classif. (Of this report) 20. Security Classif. (Of this page) 21. No. of Pages 22. Price

Unclassified Unclassified 422
Form DOT F 1700.7 (8-72) Reproduction of completed page authorized
TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive summary.................................................................................................................... ix

Framework for the analysis..........................................................................................................1
Basic analysis method..........................................................................................................2
What is included and what is excluded? ..............................................................................3
List of FMVSS, safety technologies and effectiveness evaluations ....................................4
Estimating lives saved by safety technologies, 1960-2002 ...............................................12

Part 1: Review of 19 FMVSS and their effectiveness in reducing fatalities, injuries
and crashes for passenger cars and light trucks .................................................................15
103 Windshield defrosting and defogging systems ..........................................................17
Rear window defrosting and defogging systems .......................................................17
105 Hydraulic and electric brake systems ........................................................................20
Dual master cylinders .20
Front disc brakes .23
Rear-wheel antilock (RWAL) brake systems for light trucks ...................................25
Four-wheel antilock brake systems (ABS) for passenger cars and light trucks ........27
Electronic stability control (ESC) systems (preliminary evaluation) ........................31
108 Lamps, reflective devices, and associated equipment ...............................................34
Side marker lamps.34
Center High Mounted Stop Lamps (CHMSL)...........................................................37
Retroreflective tape on heavy trailers ........................................................................41
201 Occupant protection in interior impact ......................................................................46
Redesign of mid and lower instrument panels with improved occupant protection..46
Head injury protection upgrade (not yet evaluated) ..................................................51
Head air bags (not yet evaluated)...............................................................................52
202 Head restraints ...........................................................................................................53
Head restraints for front-outboard seats.....................................................................53
203 Impact protection for the driver from the steering control system ............................59
204 Steering control rearward displacement
Energy-absorbing and telescoping steering assembly ...............................................59
205 Glazing materials .......................................................................................................65
High-Penetration Resistant (HPR) windshields.........................................................65
Glass-plastic windshields...........................................................................................68
206 Door locks and door retention components ...............................................................70
Stronger locks, latches and hinges for side doors ......................................................70
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207 Seating systems..........................................................................................................73
Seatback locks for 2-door cars with folding front seatbacks .....................................73
208 Occupant crash protection..........................................................................................77
209 Seat belt assemblies
210 Seat belt assembly anchorages
Lap belts for front-seat occupants..............................................................................80
Lap belts for back-seat occupants ..............................................................................85
Manual 3-point lap-shoulder belts for front-seat occupants ......................................87
3-point lap-shoulder belts for back-seat occupants....................................................98
Automatic safety belts..............................................................................................101
Pretensioners and load limiters for safety belts (not yet evaluated) ........................103
Frontal air bags ........................................................................................................104
On-off switches for passenger air bags in pickup trucks .........................................115
1998-99 redesign of air bags (not yet evaluated).....................................................118
Advanced air bags (not yet evaluated).....................................................................118
212 Windshield mounting...............................................................................................120
Adhesive windshield bonding..................................................................................120
213 Child restraint systems.............................................................................................125
225 Child restraint anchorage systems
Child safety seats .....................................................................................................125
Upper tethers and anchorages (not yet evaluated) ...................................................131
LATCH (lower anchors and tethers for children – not yet evaluated) ....................131
Riding in the back seat.............................................................................................132
214 Side impact protection .............................................................................................136
Side door beams.......................................................................................................136
Voluntary (pre-1994) TTI(d) improvements in 2-door cars ....................................140
Dynamic test standard, passenger cars (not yet evaluated)......................................143
Side air bags (not yet evaluated)..............................................................................144
216 Roof crush resistance ...............................................................................................145
Redesign of true hardtops as pillared hardtops or sedans ........................................145
301 Fuel system integrity................................................................................................149
1975-77 upgrade: rollover, rear-impact and lateral-impact tests .............................149
NCAP New Car Assessment Program............................................................................153
Frontal NCAP-related improvements in cars without air bags................................153
Frontal NCAP in vehicles with air bags (not yet evaluated) ...................................156
Side NCAP (not yet evaluated)................................................................................157
Rollover-resistance NCAP (not yet evaluated)........................................................157
Summary tables for Part 1................................................................................................158
Table 1-2: Estimates of fatality-reducing effectiveness..........................................159
Table 1-3: Estimates of injury-reducing effectiveness and benefits .......................164
Table 1-4: Estimates of crash-avoidance effectiveness and benefits......................170
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Part 2: Lives saved by the FMVSS and other vehicle safety technologies, 1960-2002 .........173
Summary of the estimation method .................................................................................173
Findings............................................................................................................................185
Estimate of lives saved.............................................................................................185
Net effectiveness for car/LTV occupants ................................................................187
Car/LTV occupant fatalities per 100,000,000 VMT................................................194
Estimates of lives saved by each FMVSS................................................................197
Benefits for occupants of passenger cars .................................................................204
Benefits for occupants of LTVs...............................................................................227
Benefits for pedestrians, bicyclists and other non-occupants ..................................244
Benefits for motorcyclists ........................................................................................244
Effect of air bags by seat position, occupant age and on-off switch availability.....249

References................................................................................................................................257

Appendix A: SAS programs used to estimate lives saved by the FMVSS and
other vehicle safety technologies, 1960-2002..................................................................277
Overview..........................................................................................................................277
Description of the main analysis program LS2004..........................................................281
Description of the postprocessor program OLDFA24.....................................................357

Appendix B: Summaries of published evaluation reports ......................................................397

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LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

ABS Antilock brake system

ACIR Automotive Crash Injury Research, a crash data file of the 1950’s and 60’s

ACTS Automotive Coalition for Traffic Safety (before 1999, American Coalition for
Traffic Safety)

AIS Abbreviated Injury Scale

AMC American Motors Corporation

ANPRM Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking

ANSI American National Standards Institute

BMW Bayerische Motoren Werke

CATMOD Categorical models procedure in SAS

CHMSL Center high mounted stop lamp

CRASH Calspan reconstruction of accident speeds on the highway

CY Calendar year

DMV Department of Motor Vehicles

ESC Electronic stability control

FARS Fatality Analysis Reporting System (a census of fatal crashes in the United States
since 1975)

FHWA Federal Highway Administration

FMCSA Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration

FMH Free-Motion Headform for testing upper interior components

FMVSS Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standard

GM General Motors

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GSA General Services Administration of the Federal government

GVWR Gross Vehicle Weight Rating (specified by the manufacturer, equals the vehicle’s
curb weight plus maximum recommended loading)

HIC Head Injury Criterion

HPR High penetration resistant windshield

HSL Highway Safety Literature, an on-line literature database that is a subfile of the
automated Transportation Research Information Service (TRIS) file, accessible at
http://199.79.179.82/sundev/search.cfm

IIHS Insurance Institute for Highway Safety

LATCH Lower anchors and tethers for children

LTV Light trucks and vans (includes pickup trucks, SUVs, minivans and full-sized
vans)

MCOD Multiple Cause of Death file, a supplement to FARS in 1987-98, listing causes of
death from the occupant’s death certificate

MDAI Multidisciplinary Accident Investigations (a file of in-depth crash investigations
conducted by NHTSA and others, 1967-78)

MDB Moving deformable barrier

mph Miles per hour

MVMA2D Motor Vehicle Manufacturers’ Association’s 2-dimensional computer simulation
of the occupant’s motion in a frontal crash

MY Model year

NASS National Automotive Sampling System (a probability sample of police-reported
crashes in the United States since 1979, investigated in detail)

NCAP New Car Assessment Program (consumer information supplied by NHTSA on the
safety of new cars and LTVs, based on test results, since 1979)

NCSA National Center for Statistics and Analysis, NHTSA

NCSS National Crash Severity Study (a probability sample of police-reported towaway
crashes in seven multi-county areas, 1977-79, investigated in detail)

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NHTSA National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

NOPUS National Occupant Protection Use Survey (statistics for the United States, since
1994, from a national observational survey based on a probability sample)

NPRM Notice of Proposed Rulemaking

NTSB National Transportation Safety Board

RF Right-front

RSEP Restraint Systems Evaluation Project (a probability sample of police-reported
towaway crashes involvements of model year 1973-75 cars in five urban or multi-
county areas, 1974-75, investigated in detail)

RWAL Rear-wheel antilock brake system

SAE Society of Automotive Engineers

SAS Statistical analysis software produced by SAS Institute, Inc.

SCI Special Crash Investigations, NHTSA National Center for Statistics and Analysis

SID Side impact dummy

SSF Static stability factor (Half of the vehicle’s track width divided by the height of its
center of gravity)

SUV Sport utility vehicle

TTI Thoracic Trauma Index

TTI(d) Thoracic Trauma Index for the dummy in a side-impact test

UMTRI University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute

VIN Vehicle Identification Number

VMT Vehicle Miles of Travel

VW Volkswagen

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