Springer Series in Statistics Advisors: P.Bickel,P.Diggle,S.Fienberg, U.Gather,I.Olkin,S.Zeger Springer Series in Statistics Alho/Spencer:StatisticalDemographyandForecasting. Andersen/Borgan/Gill/Keiding:StatisticalModelsBasedonCountingProcesses. Arnold/Castillo/Sarabia:ConditionalSpecificationofStatisticalModels. Atkinson/Riani/Cerioli:ExploringMultivariateDatawiththeForwardSearch. Atkinson/Riani:RobustDiagnosticRegressionAnalysis. Berger:StatisticalDecisionTheoryandBayesianAnalysis. Borg/Groenen:ModernMultidimensionalScaling. Bremaud:PointProcessesandQueues:MartingaleDynamics. Brockwell/Davis:TimeSeries:TheoryandMethods. Bucklew:IntroductiontoRareEventSimulation. Cappé/Moulines/Ryden:InferenceinHiddenMarkovModels. Chan/Tong:Chaos:AStatisticalPerspective. Chen/Shao/Ibrahim:MonteCarloMethodsinBayesianComputation. Coles:AnIntroductiontoStatisticalModelingofExtremeValues. David/Edwards:AnnotatedReadingsintheHistoryofStatistics. Devroye/Lugosi:CombinatorialMethodsinDensityEstimation. Diggle/Ribeiro:Model-basedGeostatistics. Dudoit/vanderLaan:MultipleTestingProcedureswithApplicationsto Genomics. Dzhaparidze:ParameterEstimationandHypothesisTestinginSpectralAnalysis ofStationaryTimeSeries. Efromovich:NonparametricCurveEstimation. Eggermont/LaRiccia:MaximumPenalizedLikelihoodEstimation·VolumeI. Fahrmeir/Tutz:MultivariateStatisticalModellingBasedonGeneralizedLinear Models. Fan/Yao:NonlinearTimeSeries. Farebrother:FittingLinearRelationships. Ferraty/Vieu:NonparametricFunctionalDataAnalysis. Ferreira/Lee:MultiscaleModeling. Fienberg/Hoaglin:SelectedPapersofFrederickMosteller. Frühwirth-Schnatter:FiniteMixtureandMarkovSwitchingModels. Ghosh/Ramamoorthi:BayesianNonparametrics. Glaz/Naus/Wallenstein:ScanStatistics. Good:Permutation,Paramatric,andBootstrapTestsofHypotheses. Gourieroux:ARCHModelsandFinancialApplications. Gu:SmoothingSplineANOVAModels. Györfi/Kohler:ADistribution-FreeTheoryofNonparametricRegression. Habermann/Krzyzak/Walk:AdvancedStatistics. Hall:TheBootstrapandEdgeworthExpansion. Harrell:RegressionModelingStrategies. Hart:NonparametricSmoothingandLack-of-FitTests. Hastie/Tibshirani/Friedman:TheElementsofStatisticalLearning. (continuedafterindex) C. Radhakrishna Rao Helge Toutenburg Shalabh Christian Heumann Linear Models and Generalizations Least Squares and Alternatives Third Extended Edition With Contributions by Michael Schomaker 123 ProfessorC.RadhakrishnaRao Dr.Shalabh DepartmentofStatistics DepartmentofMathematics 326ThomasBuilding &Statistics PennsylvaniaStateUniversity IndianInstituteofTechnology UniversityPark,PA16802 Kanpur−208016 USA India [email protected] [email protected] ProfessorHelgeToutenburg Dr.ChristianHeumann InstitutfürStatistik InstitutfürStatistik Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität Akademiestraße1 Akademiestraße1 80799München 80799München Germany Germany helge.toutenburg@ [email protected] stat.uni-muenchen.de LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2007934936 ISBN978-3-540-74226-5 3rdeditionSpringerBerlinHeidelbergNewYork ISBN978-0-387-98848-1 2ndeditionSpringerBerlinHeidelbergNewYork Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.Allrightsarereserved,whetherthewholeorpartofthematerial is concerned, specificallythe rights of translation, reprinting, reuseof illustrations, recitation, broadcasting,reproductiononmicrofilmorinanyotherway,andstorageindatabanks.Duplication ofthispublicationorpartsthereofispermittedonlyundertheprovisionsoftheGermanCopyright LawofSeptember9,1965,initscurrentversion,andpermissionforusemustalwaysbeobtained fromSpringer.ViolationsareliabletoprosecutionundertheGermanCopyrightLaw. SpringerisapartofSpringerScience+BusinessMedia springer.com ©Springer-VerlagBerlinHeidelberg1995,1999,2008 Theuseofgeneraldescriptivenames,registerednames,trademarks,etc.inthispublicationdoes notimply,evenintheabsenceofaspecificstatement,thatsuchnamesareexemptfromtherelevant protectivelawsandregulationsandthereforefreeforgeneraluse. Production:LE-TEXJelonek,Schmidt&VöcklerGbR,Leipzig Cover-design:WMXDesignGmbH,Heidelberg SPIN12108695 154/3180YL-543210 Printedonacid-freepaper Preface to the First Edition Thebookisbasedonseveralyearsofexperienceofbothauthorsinteaching linearmodelsatvariouslevels.Itgivesanup-to-dateaccountofthe theory and applications of linear models. The book can be used as a text for courses in statistics at the graduate level and as an accompanyingtext for courses in other areas. Some of the highlights in this book are as follows. A relatively extensive chapter on matrix theory (Appendix A) provides the necessary tools for proving theorems discussed in the text and offers a selectionofclassicalandmodernalgebraicresultsthatareusefulinresearch work in econometrics, engineering, and optimization theory. The matrix theory of the last ten years has produced a series of fundamental results aboutthedefinitenessofmatrices,especiallyforthedifferencesofmatrices, which enable superiority comparisons of two biased estimates to be made for the first time. We have attempted to provide a unified theory of inference from linear models with minimal assumptions. Besides the usual least-squares theory, alternative methods of estimation and testing based on convex loss func- tions and general estimating equations are discussed. Special emphasis is given to sensitivity analysis and model selection. A special chapter is devoted to the analysis of categoricaldata based on logit, loglinear, and logistic regressionmodels. The material covered, theoretical discussion, and a variety of practical applications will be useful not only to students but also to researchersand consultants in statistics. WewouldliketothankourcolleaguesDr.G.TrenklerandDr.V.K.Sri- vastava for their valuable advice during the preparation of the book. We vi Preface to the First Edition wish to acknowledge our appreciation of the generous help received from AndreaScho¨pp,AndreasFieger,andChristianKastnerforpreparingafair copy.Finally,wewouldliketothankDr.MartinGilchristofSpringer-Verlag for his cooperation in drafting and finalizing the book. We request that readers bring to our attention any errors they may find in the book and also give suggestions for adding new material and/or improving the presentation of the existing material. University Park, PA C. Radhakrishna Rao Mu¨nchen, Germany Helge Toutenburg July 1995 Preface to the Second Edition The first edition of this book has found wide interest in the readership. A first reprint appeared in 1997 and a special reprint for the Peoples Re- public of China appeared in 1998. Based on this, the authors followed the invitation of John Kimmel of Springer-Verlag to prepare a second edi- tion, which includes additional material such as simultaneous confidence intervalsfor linear functions,neuralnetworks,restrictedregressionandse- lectionproblems(Chapter3);mixedeffectmodels,regression-likeequations in econometrics, simultaneous prediction of actual and average values, si- multaneousestimationofparametersindifferentlinearmodelsbyempirical Bayessolutions(Chapter4);themethodoftheKalmanFilter(Chapter6); and regression diagnostics for removing an observation with animating graphics (Chapter 7). Chapter 8, “Analysis of Incomplete Data Sets”, is completely rewrit- ten, including recent terminology and updated results such as regression diagnostics to identify Non-MCAR processes. Chapter 10, “Models for Categorical Response Variables”, also is com- pletely rewritten to present the theory in a more unified way including GEE-methods for correlatedresponse. At the end of the chapters we have given complements and exercises. We have added a separate chapter (Appendix C) that is devoted to the software available for the models covered in this book. We would like to thank our colleagues Dr. V. K. Srivastava (Lucknow, India)andDr.C.Heumann(Mu¨nchen,Germany)fortheirvaluableadvice during the preparation of the second edition. We thank Nina Lieske for her help in preparing a fair copy. We would like to thank John Kimmel of viii Preface to theSecond Edition Springer-Verlagforhiseffectivecooperation.Finally,wewishtoappreciate the immense work done by Andreas Fieger (Mu¨nchen, Germany) with re- spect to the numericalsolutions of the examples included, to the technical managementofthecopy,andespeciallytothereorganizationandupdating of Chapter 8 (including some of his own research results). Appendix C on software was written by him, also. We request that readers bring to our attention any suggestions that would help to improve the presentation. University Park, PA C. Radhakrishna Rao Mu¨nchen, Germany Helge Toutenburg May 1999 Preface to the Third Edition The authors of the earlier editions of the book - C. Radhakrishna Rao andHelgeToutenburg-receivedvarioussuggestionsfromreadersafterthe publicationofthesecondedition.Basedonthewidespreadreadershipand reviews of the book, they decided to revise the second edition of the book with two more authors - Shalabh and Christian Heumann. Most of the chapters are updated with recent developments in the area of linear mod- els and more topics are included. The relationship between the theory of linearmodelsandregressionanalysisisdiscussedinchapter1.Chapter2on simple linear models is newly introduced for a better understanding of the conceptsinfurtherchapters.Italsodiscusssomealternativeregressionap- proaches like orthogonalregression,reduced major axis regression,inverse regression, LAD regression besides the direct regression and the method of maximum likelihood. Such approaches are generally not discussed in most of the books on linear models and regressionanalysis.Many parts in chapter3arerewrittenandupdated.Thetopicsonregressionwithstochas- tic explanatoryvariables,Stein–rule estimation, nonparametricregression, classificationandregressiontrees,boostingandbagging,testsofparameter constancy, balanced loss function and LINEX loss function are important topics included beside others. Some parts in chapter 4 are rewritten and topics on linear mixed models with normally distributed errors and ran- domeffects,andmeasurementerrormodelsareintroduced.The maximum likelihoodestimationandStein-ruleestimationunderlinearrestrictionsare addedinchapter5.Thetopicsonpredictionregionsandsimultaneouspre- diction of actual and average values of the study variable are expanded in chapter 6. Model selection criteria are introduced in chapter 7. A section x Preface to theThird Edition on the treatment of nonignorable nonresponse is introduced in chapter 8. The full likelihood approach for marginal models for categorical response variable is expanded and updated in chapter 10. We owe our thanks to Late Professor V. K. Srivastava (India) for his continuous encouragement. We thank John Kimmel and Lilith Braun of Springer-Verlag for their help in the third edition of the book. We invite the readers to send their comments and suggestions on the contents and treatment of the topics in the book for possible improvement in future editions. University Park, PA C. Radhakrishna Rao Mu¨nchen, Germany Helge Toutenburg Kanpur, India Shalabh Mu¨nchen, Germany Christian Heumann July 2007
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