Lighting the way Toward a sustainable energy future

208 Pages·2007·7.86 MB·English

October 2007
L
i
g
h
t
i
n
g Lighting the way

t
h
e
Toward a sustainable energy future
w
a
y
:

T
o
w
a
r
d

a

s
u
s
t
a
i
n
a
b
l
e

e
n
e
r
g
y

f
u
IAC Secretariat tu
r
e
Het Trippenhuis
Kloveniersburgwal 29
Amsterdam
The Netherlands
P.O. Box 19121
1000 GC Amsterdam
The Netherlands
I
T [phone] n
t
F [phone] e
r
A
[email protected] c
a
www.interacademycouncil.net d
e
m
y

C
o
u
n InterAcademy Council
c
i
l
InterAcademy Council IAC Board and Staff
Expert Advice Diversified Funding Board
Goverdhan MEHTA (Observer)
The InterAcademy Council (IAC) produces IAC projects are funded by multiple spon- Bruce ALBERTS, Co-Chair President, International Council for Science (ICSU)
reports on scientific, technological, and health sors, including national governments, private Past President, U.S. National Academy of Sciences Frits van OOSTROM (Observer)
issues related to the pressing global challenges foundations, and international organizations. LU Yongxiang, Co-Chair President, Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and
of our time. Embodying expertise and expe- Administrative overhead is covered by special President, Chinese Academy of Sciences Sciences
rience from all regions of the world, the IAC grants from the Netherlands Government and Howard ALPER Jacob PALIS
provides knowledge and advice to national the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Co-Chair, InterAcademy Panel on International Issues President, Academy of Sciences for the Developing
governments and international organizations. Sciences. Participating academies contribute not (IAP) World (TWAS)
only intellectual resources but also funding for
Reza Davari ARDEKANI Martin REES

developing new projects and special activities.
President, Academy of Sciences of the Islamic Republic President, Royal Society of London
Global Experience
Sharing Knowledge of Iran SALLEH Mohd NOR
The eighteen-member IAC Board is composed Engin BERMEK Vice-President, Academy of Sciences of Malaysia
of presidents of 15 academies of science and At the United Nations in February 2004, the President, Turkish Academy of Sciences S.E. VIZI
equivalent organizations—representing Brazil, IAC released its first report, Inventing a Better
Achiel van CAUWENBERGHE President, Hungarian Academy of Sciences
Chile, China, France, Germany, Hungary, India, Future – A Strategy for Building Worldwide Ca-
Past President, International Council of Academies of
Iran, Japan, Malaysia, Turkey, the United King- pacities in Science and Technology. A second IAC
Engineering and Technological Sciences (CAETS)
dom, and the United States, plus the African report, commissioned by the U.N. Secretary-
David CHALLONER
Academy of Sciences and the Academy of Sci- General and published in June 2004, was titled Staff
Past Co-Chair, InterAcademy Medical Panel (IAMP).
ences for the Developing World (TWAS)—and Realizing the Promise and Potential of African
Ralph J. CICERONE John P. CAMPBELL
representatives of the InterAcademy Panel (IAP) Agriculture – Science and Technology Strategies
President, U.S. National Academy of Sciences Executive Director
of the world’s scientific academies, the Interna- for Improving Agricultural Productivity and Food
tional Council of Academies of Engineering and Security in Africa. A third report, Women for Mohamed H.A. HASSAN Paulo de GÓES
Technological Sciences (CAETS), and the Inter- Science, was published in June 2006. Future President, African Academy of Sciences Associate Director
Academy Medical Panel (IAMP) of the world’s reports will also address critical global issues Jules HOFFMANN Shem ARUNGU OLENDE
medical academies. – improving global surveillance of emerging in- President, Académie des Sciences, France Associate Director
fectious diseases, strengthening the capacity of Ichiro KANAZAWA S. K. SAHNI
Independent Judgment African universities for national innovation, and President, Science Council of Japan Associate Director
identifying more effective measures of scientific
When requested to provide advice on a partic- Matthias KLEINER Albert W. KOERS
ular issue, the IAC assembles an international and technological progress. President, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft General Counsel
panel of experts. Serving on a voluntary basis, Promoting Innovation Eduardo Moacyr KRIEGER Ruud de JONG
panel members meet and review current, cut- President, Brazilian Academy of Sciences Program Coordinator
ting-edge knowledge on the topic and prepare Enhanced worldwide abilities for innovation and
Servet MARTINEZ Aguilera
a draft report on its findings, conclusions, problem-solving are required for responding to
President, Chilean Academy of Sciences
and recommendations. All IAC draft reports nearly all the urgent challenges addressed by the
R.A. MASHELKAR
undergo an intensive process of peer review InterAcademy Council. The IAC Board will thus
President, Indian National Science Academy
by other international experts. Only when the sponsor special projects to promote capacities
IAC Board is satisfied that feedback from the in science and technology in all regions of the
peer review has been thoughtfully considered world.
and incorporated is a final report released to
the requesting organization and the public.
For further information on the IAC
Every effort is made to ensure that IAC reports
please see: www.interacademycouncil.net
are free from any national or regional bias.
Lighting the way

ISBN 978-90-6984-531-9
© Copyright InterAcademy Council, 2007
Non-commercial reproduction
Information in this report has been produced with the intent that it be readily
available for personal and public non-commercial use and may be reproduced, in
part or in whole and by any means, without charge or further permission from the
InterAcademy Council. We ask only that:
• Users exercise due diligence in ensuring the accuracy of the materials repro-
duced;
• The InterAcademy Council be identified as the source; and
• The reproduction is not represented as an official version of the materials repro-
duced, nor as having been made in affiliation with or with the endorsement of
the InterAcademy Council.
Commercial reproduction
Reproduction of multiple copies of materials in this report, in whole or in part, for
the purposes of commercial redistribution is prohibited except with written
permission from the InterAcademy Council. To obtain permission to reproduce
materials in this report for commercial purposes, please contact the InterAcademy
Council, c/o Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences, P.O. Box 19121,
NL-1000 GC Amsterdam, The Netherlands, [email protected]
Design, typography and typesetting
Ellen Bouma
iv IAC report | Lighting the way
Foreword
own academies of sciences and engineering to
provide this advice for their nation. But the possi-
bility and value of such advice at the international
level—from an analogous source based on associa-
tions of academies—is a more recent develop-
ment. In fact, only with the establishment of the
InterAcademy Council (IAC) in 2000 did access-
As recognized in 1997 by the Kyoto Protocol, ing such advice become a straightforward matter.1
achieving a sustainable energy future presents an Thus far, three major reports have been released
urgent challenge for the 21st century. Current by the InterAcademy Council: on institutional
patterns of energy resources and energy usage are capacity building in every nation for science and
proving detrimental to the long-term welfare of technology (S&T), on African agriculture, and on
humanity. The integrity of essential natural women for science.2
systems is already at risk from climate change At the request of the Governments of China and
caused by the atmospheric emissions of green- Brazil, and with strong support from United
house gases. At the same time, basic energy serv- Nations Secretary-General, Mr. Kofi Annan, the
ices are currently unavailable to a third of the IAC Board has now harnessed the expertise of
world’s people, and more energy will be essential scientists and engineers throughout the world to
for equitable, worldwide sustainable development. produce Lighting the Way: Toward a Sustainable
The national and global energy security risks are Energy Future. Here, we call special attention to
further exacerbated by an escalating energy cost three of the report’s important messages.
and by the competition for unevenly distributed First, science and engineering provide critical
energy resources. guiding principles for achieving a sustainable
This global problem requires global solutions. energy future. As the report states, ‘science
Thus far, insufficient advantage has been taken of provides the basis for a rational discourse about
the world’s leading scientists and their major insti- trade-offs and risks, for selecting research and
tutions, even though these institutions are a
powerful resource for communicating across
 The eighteen-member InterAcademy Council Board is
national boundaries and for reaching agreement
composed of presidents of fifteen academies of science and
on rational approaches to long-term problems of
equivalent organizations representing Brazil, Chile, China,
this kind. The world’s academies of science and of France, Germany, Hungary, India, Iran, Japan, Malaysia, Turkey,
the United Kingdom, and the United States, plus the African
engineering—whose judgments are based on
Academy of Sciences and the Academy of Sciences for the Devel-
objective evidence and analysis—have the respect oping World (TWAS) and representatives of the InterAcademy
of their national governments but are not govern- Panel (IAP) of scientific academies, the International Coun-
cil of Academies of Engineering and Technological Sciences
ment-controlled. Thus, for example, scientists
(CAETS), and the InterAcademy Medical Panel (IAMP) of
everywhere can generally agree even when their medical academies.
governments have different agendas. Many politi-  InterAcademy Council, Inventing a Better Future: A Strat-
egy for Building Worldwide Capacities in Science and Technology,
cal leaders recognize the value of basing their deci-
Amsterdam, 004; InterAcademy Council, Realizing the Promise
sions on the best scientific and technological and Potential of African Agriculture, 004; InterAcademy Coun-
advice, and they are increasingly calling upon their cil, Women for Science: An Advisory Report, Amsterdam, 006.
(Accessible at www.interacademycouncil.net)
Lighting the way | IAC report v
development (R&D) priorities, and for identifying technologies should be accelerated in an environ-
new opportunities—openness is one of its dominant mentally responsible way.
values. Engineering, through the relentless optimi- Also urgent as a moral, social, and economic
zation of the most promising technologies, can imperative, the poorest people on this planet—who
deliver solutions—learning by doing is among its primarily reside in developing countries—should be
dominant values. Better results will be achieved if supplied with modern, efficient, environmentally
many avenues are explored in parallel, if outcomes friendly and sustainable energy services. The scien-
are evaluated with actual performance measures, if tific, engineering, and medical academies of the
results are reported widely and fully, and if strategies world, in partnership with the United Nations and
are open to revision and adaptation.’ many other concerned institutions and individuals,
Second, achieving a sustainable energy future will are poised to work together to help meet this urgent
require an intensive effort at capacity building, as challenge.
well as the participation of a broad array of institu- We thank all of the Study Panel members, review-
tions and constituencies. The report emphasizes that ers, and the two distinguished review monitors who
‘critical to the success of all the tasks ahead are the contributed to the successful completion of this
abilities of individuals and institutions to effect report. Special appreciation is due to the Study Panel
changes in energy resources and usage. Capacity Co-Chairs and staff who put so much time and devo-
building of individual expertise and institutional tion into ensuring that the final product would make
effectiveness must become an urgent priority of all a difference.
principal actors—multinational organizations, The InterAcademy Council gratefully acknowl-
governments, corporations, educational institutions, edges the leadership exhibited by the Government of
non-profit organizations, and the media. Above all, China, the Government of Brazil, the William and
the general public must be provided with sound Flora Hewlett Foundation, the Energy Foundation,
information about the choices ahead and the actions the German Research Foundation (DFG), and the
required for achieving a sustainable energy future.’ United Nations Foundation, which provided the
Third, although achieving a sustainable energy financial support for the conduct of the study and the
future requires long-range approaches, given the printing and distribution of this report. We are also
dire prospect of global climate change, the Study grateful to the following organizations for their
Panel urges that the following be done expeditiously contributions in hosting regional IAC energy work-
and simultaneously: shops: the Brazilian Academy of Sciences, the
• Concerted efforts should be mounted for improv- Chinese Academy of Sciences, the French Academy
ing energy efficiency and reducing the carbon of Sciences, the Indian National Science Academy,
intensity of the world economy, including the and the Science Council of Japan.
worldwide introduction of price signals for carbon
emissions with consideration of different Bruce ALBERTS
economic and energy systems in individual coun- Past President, U.S. National Academy of Sciences
tries. Co-Chair, InterAcademy Council
• Technologies should be developed and deployed
for capturing and sequestering carbon from fossil LU Yongxiang
fuels, particularly coal. President, Chinese Academy of Sciences
• Development and deployment of renewable energy Co-Chair, InterAcademy Council
vi IAC report | Lighting the way
Contents
Foreword v
Study Panel viii
Preface ix
Report review xiii
Acknowledgements xv
Executive Summary xvii
1. The sustainable energy challenge 1
2. Energy demand and efficiency 19
3. Energy supply 57
4. The role of government and the contribution of science and technology 123
5. The case for immediate action 145
Annexes
A. Study panel biographies 165
B. Acronyms and abbreviations 169
C. Common energy unit conversion factors and unit prefixes 171
D. List of boxes, figures, and tables 173
Lighting the way | IAC report vii
Study Panel Nebosja NAKICENOVIC (Austria), Professor of
Energy Economics, Vienna University of Technol-
ogy, Vienna, Austria & Leader of Energy and Tech-
nology Programs, IIASA (International Institute
for Applied Systems Analysis), Laxenburg, Austria
Rajendra PACHAURI (India), Director-General, The
Energy & Resources Institute, New Delhi, India &
Chairman, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change
Co-Chairs Majid SHAFIE-POUR (Iran), Professor and Board
Steven CHU (United States), Director, Lawrence member, Faculty of Environment, University of
Berkeley National Laboratory & Professor of Phys- Tehran, Iran
ics and Professor of Molecular and Cellular Biol- Evald SHPILRAIN (Russia), Head, Department of
ogy University of California, Berkeley, California, Energy and Energy Technology, Institute for High
USA Temperatures, Russian Academy of Sciences,
José GOLDEMBERG (Brazil), Professor, University Moscow, Russian Federation
of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil Robert SOCOLOW (United States), Professor of
Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Prince-
Members ton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
Shem ARUNGU OLENDE (Kenya), Secretary- Kenji YAMAJI (Japan), Professor of Electrical Engi-
General, African Academy of Sciences & Chair- neering, University of Tokyo, Member of Science
man and Chief Executive Officer, Quecosult Ltd., Council of Japan, Vice-Chair of IIASA Council,
Nairobi, Kenya Chairman of the Green Power Certification Coun-
Mohamed EL-ASHRY (Egypt), Senior Fellow, UN cil of Japan, Tokyo, Japan
Foundation, Washington D.C., USA YAN Luguang (China), Chairman, Scientific
Ged DAVIS (United Kingdom), Co-President, Global Committee of Institute of Electrical Engineering,
Energy Assessment, International Institute for Chinese Academy of Sciences & Honorary Presi-
Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, dent, Ningbo University, Beijing, China
Austria
Thomas JOHANSSON (Sweden), Professor of
Energy Systems Analysis and Director, Interna- Staff
tional Institute for Industrial Environmental Jos van RENSWOUDE, Study Director
Economics (IIIEE), University of Lund, Sweden Dilip AHUJA, Consultant
David KEITH (Canada), Director, ISEEE Energy and Marika TATSUTANI, Writer/Editor
Environmental Systems Group, and Professor Stéphanie A. JACOMETTI, Communications Coor-
and Canada Research Chair of Energy and the dinator
Environment, University of Calgary, Canada
LI Jinghai (China), Vice President, Chinese Academy
of Sciences, Beijing, China
viii IAC report | Lighting the way