Lewisian Turning Point in the Chinese Economy: Comparison with East Asian Countries

226 Pages·2014·1.649 MB·English

by  Ryoshin Minami, Fumio Makino, Kwan S. Kim (eds.)

Lewisian Turning Point in the Chinese Economy
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Lewisian Turning Point
in the Chinese
Economy
Comparison with East Asian Countries
Edited by
Ryoshin Minami
Hitosubashi University, Japan
Fumio Makino
Faculty of Economics, Hosei University, Japan
and
Kwan S. Kim
Kellogg Institute for International Studies, University of Notre Dame, Indiana, USA
Selection and editorial matter © Ryoshin Minami, Fumio Makino and
Kwan S. Kim 2014.
Individual chapters © Contributors 2014.
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2014 978-1-137-39725-6
All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this
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in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
First published 2014 by
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ISBN 978-1-349-48485-0 ISBN 978-1-137-39726-3 (eBook)
DOI 10.1057/9781137397263
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Contents
List of Figures v iii
List of Tables x
Preface xii
List of Contributors x iv
Introduction
1 Turning Point in the Labor Surplus Economy: Concept and
Approach 3
Ryoshin Minami
I Theory of the turning point 4
II TP experiences from historical perspective 6
III Contents of this volume 7
References 13
Part I Lewisian Turning Point in Asian Countries
2 Turning Point in Japan: Structural Change in the Labor
Market and Significance 17
Ryoshin Minami
I Methodology for finding the turning point 1 8
II Real wages and wage differentials 2 0
III Relation between wages and labor productivity in
agriculture 24
IV Factors and consequences of passing the turning point 3 1
V Conclusions 37
References 40
3 Structural Change of the Labor Market and the
Turning Point in South Korea 4 2
Chang Nam Kim
I Employment absorption and agricultural workforce 4 3
II Manufacturing real wages and labor supply elasticity 4 5
III Marginal labor productivity of agriculture 4 8
v
vi Contents
I V Income distribution 5 1
V Conclusions 5 5
R eferences 57
4 Agricultural Surplus Labor and Poverty in Indonesia 5 8
S usumu Hondai and Kazutoshi Nakamura
I Wage rates in agriculture 5 9
I I Labor productivity and real wages 6 3
I II Changes in rural economy 6 9
I V Summary and some issues to be investigated 7 3
R eferences 75
5 Labor Market and the Lewisian Turning Point in China 7 6
R yoshin Minami and Xinxin Ma
I Recent changes in the labor market 7 7
I I Agricultural production function and surplus labor 81
I II Outflow of agricultural labor and rural industrial
employment 8 8
I V Concluding summary and prospect 9 0
R eferences 98
Part II Structural Change of the Labor Market in
China: Facts and Factors
6 Demographic Transition and Regional Employment 1 03
F ang Cai, Meiyan Wang and Yue Qu
I Demographic change and the Lewisian turning point 103
I I Impact of demographic transition on labor market 1 06
I II Where will the labor-intensive industries go? 1 09
I V Demographic dividend in Inland 1 12
V Concluding remarks 1 16
R eferences 118
7 Regional Migration and Structural Change in the
Labor Market 119
M akoto Takada and Xu Li
I Composition of migration 1 20
I I Migration in Sichuan and Guangdong 1 27
I II Conclusions 1 33
R eferences 135
8 Foreign Direct Investment and Employment 1 36
J in Du and Hiromi Ishizuka
I Foreign investment in China 1 37
Contents vii
I I Framework and working hypothesis 142
I II Quantitative analysis and results 1 45
I V Conclusions 1 52
R eferences 1 53
9 L abor Market Transformation in Shanghai 155
S hanping Yan
I Literature review and Shanghai employment surveys 156
I I Outlook of the labor market 1 59
I II Econometric analysis on labor segmentation 164
I V Conclusions 1 76
R eferences 1 78
10 L abor Migration and Urban-Rural Income Disparity 181
J injun Xue and Wenshu Gao
I The issues of income data and income statistics 182
I I Rural migration and impact on income 184
I II Model for estimating the urban-rural income gap 188
I V Re-estimating the urban-rural income gap 191
V Conclusions 1 93
R eferences 1 95
Part III Summary and Conclusions
11 C hina’s Turning Point from an East Asian Perspective:
Prospective Recapitulation 1 99
R yoshin Minami, Kwan S. Kim and Fumio Makino
I Turning point in the East Asian context 199
I I Consequences of the turning point 206
I II Turning point and prospective outlook 210
R eferences 2 13
Index 215
List of Figures
2.1 Long-term changes in the real wages of agriculture
and manufacturing industries 2 1
2.2 Wage ratio of agriculture to manufacturing 2 2
2.3 Relation between the number of non-primary sector
workers who originally came from primary sector and
real wages of annual contract workers in agriculture 2 4
2.4 Long-term changes in the relative income share of labor 3 4
2.5 Long-term changes in income distribution
(Gini coefficient) 34
3.1 Changes in the number of farm population and
its net outflow 45
3.2 The relationship between net outflow of farm population
and real wages in manufacturing industry 4 7
3.3 Changes in the marginal productivity of labor and
real wages in agriculture (Unit: Won per day) 4 9
3.4 Changes in the relative income share of labor 52
3.5 Changes in the Gini coefficient 53
4.1 Current agricultural wage rates in selected provinces 6 1
4.2 Real agricultural wage rates in selected provinces 6 2
4.3 Rural unemployment rates in selected provinces 7 1
4.4 Percentages of households below the poverty lines 7 2
5.1 Level of living in rural households, wages of rural
industries and wages of migrant workers 7 8
5.2 Ratio of wages of rural industries to wages of
urban industries 79
5.3 Ratio of wages of migrant workers to staff and workers
in urban iIndustries: manufacturing industries 8 0
5.4 Relative income share of labor in manufacturing
enterprises by the types of ownership 83
5.5 Comparison of the production elasticity of labor
among various estimates 83
6.1 Fertility rate in rural and urban China 1 05
6.2 Working age population in rural and urban China 1 06
6.3 Growth rate of wages in selected sectors 1 08
6.4 Wages, profits, and total costs 110
6.5 Labor costs and rate of return by region 1 13
viii
List of Figures ix
6.6 D emographic disparities by region 1 14
7.1 A ge distribution of migrant labour to Sichuan and
Guangdong provinces, 2000 1 28
7.2 E ducational level of migrant labour to Sichuan and
Guangdong provinces, 2000 1 29
7.3 C omparison of age distribution of female labor in
Sichuan province (all Industries, 21–50 years old) 130
7.4 C omparison of age distribution of female labor in
Sichuan province (wholesale and retail trade, catering
services, 21–50 years old) 1 31
7.5 W age difference between Sichuan and Guangdong
(collective enterprises) 1 32
8.1 E mployment share by enterprise ownership groups,
1998–2007 1 40
8.2 E xports by enterprise ownership groups, 2000–2010 148
9.1 T he relationship between frequency of occupational
mobility and earnings 1 63
9.2 T he relationship between age, educational attainment
and monthly earnings 1 67
9.3 T he relationship between education attainment and
monthly earnings (in Shanghai) 175
11.1 I nternational comparison of per capita real GDP and
turning point 2 00
11.2 I nternational comparison of the ratio of primary
industry in employment 2 01
11.3 I nternational comparison of the primary industry
employment 2 03
11.4 I nternational comparison of arable land area per primary
employment 2 03
11.5 C hanges in Gini coefficient before and after the Lewisian
turning point 2 07