Leadership 2050 Critical Challenges, Key Contexts, and Emerging Trends Theauthorsofthiseditedvolumegowhereothersfeartotread.Theyaretobecom- mendedfirstforrecognizingthatleadershipandfollowershipchangeovertime(cid:1)and second for using their expertise to project what leadership and followership might looklikedecadesfromnow.Thoughastheeditorhimselfadmits,“predictionisvery difficult,especiallyaboutthefuture,”thisbookisaworthylookintoanadmittedly cloudycrystalball. (cid:1)BarbaraKellerman,JamesMacGregor BurnsLecturerinLeadership,HarvardKennedySchool Leadership 2050 exemplifies effective collaboration between scholars and practi- tionersintwodistinctfields(cid:1)StrategicForesightandLeadership.Together,thecon- tributors to this volume illuminate the challenges leaders will face over the next 35 years.MuchliketheWorldFutureSociety,Leadership2050promotesawarenessof thechangingcontextforleadershipandencouragescreativesolutions.Itisawonder- fulresourceforleadersinallcontextslookingtorespondeffectivelytoacomplexand stillemergentconditions.Iheartilyendorse! (cid:1)AmyZalman,Ph.D.,CEO&President,WorldFutureSociety In 1970, futurists Alvin and Heidi Toffler observed, “Change is the way the future invadesourlives.”Thisbookaffirmsthatleadershipisthewayweinvadethefuture. The foresight needed to engage in the complexity and demand of “wicked” global problemsthatbecomeadaptivechallenges,thetranscendentperspectiveofbeingpeo- pleflourishinginsociallyjustrelationshipsbuiltontrust,andenvisioningtheexpand- ing digital age, all coalescein this book.This book isa must read for leaders in all sectors and leadership scholars and educators in all disciplines as a framework to thinkcriticallytogetherabouttheseglobalchallenges. (cid:1)SusanR.Komives,ProfessorEmerita,UniversityofMaryland Fromglobalcrisestocorporateandcommunityconcerns,theeffectiveuseofpersonal influenceandsanctionedauthoritytodayarebeingchallengedandreshapedbynew technologiesandmajorshiftsinattitudesandexpectations.Leadership2050offersa broadyetsolidlyresearchedoverviewofkeyissuesandinfluencesmostlikelytodomi- natetheglobalsocial,politicalandeconomiclandscapeinthedecadesahead.Thisis a book to guide and inspire anyone, from CEO to private citizen, who faces the importanttaskofshapingsoundlong-rangeplans,whileearningandpreservingthe trustofco-workersandthepublic.Anyleaderwhodeservesthetitlecanprofitfrom theinsightsandideasfoundinLeadership2050. (cid:1)LaneJennings,ManagingEditor,WorldFutureReview The past 35 years of leadership studies are strewn with achievements. This book is oneofthemandsuggeststhebestmaybeyettocome.Itisinterdisciplinaryworkat its finest and brings future studies into the mix of its myriad sources. It culls vision andvaluefromthecurrentstateofleadershipscholarshiptoemphasizealeadership premisedoninterconnectedness,peace,sustainability,justice,andsocialorganizations aslivingdynamicsystems.Itcombinedaccessibilityandsolidresearchmakesitideal forclassroomanddiscussiongroups.Itfaces“wickedproblems”thatlieaheadofus and suggests the leadership styles and models needed to address them. It is simply wonderful to see a collection that celebrates where the field has been and shapes a direction for its increased relevance in the future. Highly recommended for anyone concernedwiththefutureoftheplanetanditspeople. (cid:1)RichardA.Couto,DistinguishedSeniorScholar,UnionInstitute Leadership 2050 Critical Challenges, Key Contexts, and Emerging Trends Edited by Matthew Sowcik Wilkes University, Wilkes-Barre, PA, USA Anthony C. Andenoro University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA Mindy McNutt Wright State University, Dayton, OH, USA Susan Elaine Murphy The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK UnitedKingdom(cid:1)NorthAmerica(cid:1)Japan India(cid:1)Malaysia(cid:1)China EmeraldGroupPublishingLimited HowardHouse,WagonLane,BingleyBD161WA,UK Firstedition2015 Copyrightr2015EmeraldGroupPublishingLimited Reprintsandpermissionsservice Contact:[email protected] Nopartofthisbookmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem, transmittedinanyformorbyanymeanselectronic,mechanical, photocopying,recordingorotherwisewithouteitherthepriorwritten permissionofthepublisheroralicencepermittingrestrictedcopyingissued intheUKbyTheCopyrightLicensingAgencyandintheUSAbyThe CopyrightClearanceCenter.Anyopinionsexpressedinthechaptersare thoseoftheauthors.WhilstEmeraldmakeseveryefforttoensurethequality andaccuracyofitscontent,Emeraldmakesnorepresentationimpliedor otherwise,astothechapters’suitabilityandapplicationanddisclaimsany warranties,expressorimplied,totheiruse. BritishLibraryCataloguinginPublicationData AcataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary ISBN:978-1-78560-349-5 ISSN:2058-8801(Series) ISOQAR certified Management System, awarded to Emerald for adherence to Environmental standard ISO 14001:2004. Certificate Number 1985 ISO 14001 Contents ListofContributors vii Foreword ix Section I Envisioning Leadership in 2050 1 CHAPTER Leadership in the Future TimothyC.Mack 9 2 CHAPTER Envisioning Leadership in 2050: Four Future Scenarios: A Case for Relevant 2050 Leadership (cid:1) Preparing for Change JeffreyL.SudermanandPhilipA.Foster 23 Section II Future Leadership Drivers, Issues, and Contexts 3 CHAPTER Leading for Tomorrow in a World Yearning for Social Justice DonnetteJ.Noble 43 4 CHAPTER Leadership for Sustainability and Peace: Responding to the Wicked Challenges of the Future RianSatterwhite,WhitneyMcIntyreMillerandKate Sheridan 59 CHAPTER5 Leadership 2050 (cid:1) The Call to Shift from Private to Social Reason: Wake Up, Sober Up, and Inquire StanAmaladas 75 6 CHAPTER Geopolitical Citizenship 2050: From Totalitarian Statism to Polyarchical Ideologies IcarbordTshabangu 91 v vi CONTENTS 7 CHAPTER Healthcare 2050: Anticipatory Leadership, PhysicianShortages,andPatient-CenteredCare BarryA.Doublestein,WalterT.Leeand RichardM.Pfohl 109 8 CHAPTER Leadership Education 2050: Changing the Spaces and Faces of Experience DanielM.Jenkins,LisaEndersbyand KathyL.Guthrie 127 Section III Exploring Integrated Solutions 9 CHAPTER Emotionally Engaged Leadership: Shifting Paradigms and Creating Adaptive Solutions for 2050 NicoleL.P.StedmanandAnthonyC.Andenoro 145 10 CHAPTER The Global Leadership Psychological Contract Model (cid:1) Actionable to Shape the Future to 2050 SebastianSalicru 159 11 CHAPTER Creative Leadership and Social Intelligence: The Keys to Leading in the Digital Age CathleenClerkin 175 12 CHAPTER The Strategist Competency Model: The Future of Leadership Development SusanCannon,MichaelMorrow-Foxand MaureenMetcalf 189 13 CHAPTER Quantum Leadership: Collapsing the Wave Function MichaelA.PielandKarenK.Johnson 207 14 CHAPTER Social Artistry: A Whole System Approach to Sustainable Analysis and Leadership Practice SkyeBurnandJeanHouston 225 15 CHAPTER Attentional Leadership Theory: A Framework for the 2050 Leader BruceH.Jackson 241 AbouttheAuthors 263 Index 271 List of Contributors Stan Amaladas University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada Anthony C. Andenoro University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA Skye Burn Social Artist, Researcher, Writer, Bellingham, WA, USA Susan Cannon Evolucent Consulting, Seattle, WA, USA; Fielding Graduate University, Santa Barbara, CA Cathleen Clerkin Center for Creative Leadership, Greensboro, NC, USA Barry A. Doublestein Leadership Solutions, Loganville, GA, USA Lisa Endersby National Association of Student Personnel Administrators (NASPA), Toronto, Canada Philip A. Foster Maximum Change, Inc., Bell Buckle, TN, USA Kathy L. Guthrie Florida State University, Tampa, FL, USA Jean Houston Scholar, Philosopher and Researcher, Ashland, OR, USA Bruce H. Jackson The Institute of Applied Human Excellence, Highland, UT, USA Daniel M. Jenkins University of Southern Maine, Lewiston, ME, USA Karen K. Johnson University of Phoenix, Tempe, AZ, USA vii viii LISTOFCONTRIBUTORS Walter T. Lee Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC, USA Timothy C. Mack AAI Foresight, Freeland, WA, USA WhitneyMcIntyre Miller ChapmanUniversity, Orange, CA, USA Mindy McNutt Wright State University, Dayton, OH, USA Maureen Metcalf Metcalf & Associates, Inc., Huntersville, NC, USA; Capital University, Columbus, Ohio, USA Michael Morrow-Fox Metcalf & Associates, Inc., Huntersville, NC, USA SusanElaine Murphy The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK Donnette J. Noble Roosevelt University, Chicago, IL, USA Richard M. Pfohl Navigos, Tolland, CT, USA Michael A. Piel IceBridge Research Institute, Manizales, Colombia Sebastian Salicru PTS Consultants Pty Ltd, Sydney, Australia Rian Satterwhite University of Oregon, Eugene, OR, USA Kate Sheridan Christopher Newport University, Newport News, VA, USA Matthew Sowcik Wilkes University, Wilkes-Barre, PA, USA Nicole L. P. Stedman University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA Jeffrey L. Suderman SudermanSolutions, Palm Desert, CA, USA Icarbord Tshabangu Leeds Trinity University, Leeds, UK Foreword T hisbookhelpsusthinkatonceaboutthedemandsourworld is likely to face in the next 35 years and the leadership our communities will need to both survive those challenges and thrive. How will we grow the future out of the present? How will we prepare people for the practices of leadership our children and grandchildrenwillneed?Whatisourwork,inourlifetimes,tobuild ascaffoldforthenextgenerations? The authors in this volume have worked these questions with courageous imagination and insight. As they suggest, we live at an opportune moment. Human beings can discover as never before our interdependence and commonality to bridge across national, reli- gious, economic, and ethnic identities. We can pool our talents, resources,andspirit,locallyandbroadly,tocreatethesynergiesand capitalize on our differences to evolve toward a sustainable, peace- ful,andjustworld. The adaptive pressures challenge us: severe inequity; disrespect and violence toward women and disenfranchised peoples; rapid climate change and devastation of the natural environment; our industrial and numbing brutality toward animal life; population growth that exceeds the economic and political capacities of our cities, countries, and international relationships; and the wars, chaos,andterroristicviolencethatfollowwhen,asYeatswroteafter WorldWarI,“thecentercannothold.” Leadershipislikelytomatter. Tointroducethis volume,Isuggest two keyareas forourthink- ing and research as we look to the future: the dynamics of adaptive change,andthepracticesofauthorityandleadership. Adaptive Change I believe weneed to comprehend much more fully than we currently do the dynamics of adaptive problem-solving, not only generically, butalsoacrossthediversecontextsthatrequireinformedandskilled ix