Kim Jon Un and The Bomb: Survival and Deterrence in North Korea

318 Pages·2020·3.347 MB·English

by  Ankit Panda

KIM JONG UN AND THE BOMB
ANKIT PANDA
Kim Jong Un and the Bomb
Survival and Deterrence in North Korea
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First published in the UK by Hurst Publishers, 2020
Published in the United States of America by Oxford University Press
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© Ankit Panda 2020
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ISBN 978–0–19–006036–7
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CONTENTS
Acknowledgements
Author’s Note
Introduction
PART ONE
SURVIVAL
1. A New Emperor
2. History’s Trials
3. Deterrence
PART TWO
TESTING, TESTING
4. Building the Bomb
5. Deterrence Close to Home
6. Fire from the Sea
7. To Guam and Beyond
8. Going Intercontinental
9. Fear, Command, Control
PART THREE
NUCLEAR COEXISTENCE?
10. The Arsonist and the Firefighter
11. A Dangerous Coexistence
Appendix: Complete List of U.S. Intelligence Community Designations
for North Korea
Notes
Index
O gentlemen, the time of life is short;
To spend that shortness basely were too long
If life did ride upon a dial’s point,
Still ending at the arrival of an hour.
An if we live, we live to tread on kings;
If die, brave death, when princes die with us.
Now, for our consciences, the arms are fair
When the intent of bearing them is just.
Hotspur, in Henry IV, Part 1, Act V, Scene II
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This book was written over the course of one year, representing the
culmination of more than a half-decade of my work on North Korea,
nuclear weapons, and international security. Over the course of 2017, I,
alongside many other analysts working on North Korea’s military
capabilities, found that my prior years’ work on the country had suddenly
garnered a great deal of public interest amid the twin developments of
Donald Trump’s election to the American presidency in November 2016
and Kim Jong Un’s historic missile testing campaign that year.
By the time of the Singapore Summit between Trump and Kim in June
2018, I had authored scores of analytical articles and commentaries on the
U.S.–North Korea relationship and Pyongyang’s fast-advancing military
capabilities. At public events during this period, I frequently made the
case against the folly of considering military action against North Korea—
despite the distasteful and apparent reality of its increasingly sophisticated
capabilities. During travel to Seoul and Tokyo at the time, I focused on
listening to the perspectives of officials and experts—all with the aim of
making sense of what North Korea’s new-found capabilities and
subsequent turn toward diplomacy would mean for the region and for the
world.
Around the time I started writing the manuscript that became this
book, Kim Jong Un had embarked on a charm offensive to transform his
international image from that of an irascible “rocket man” (as Trump had
memorably dubbed him, with no due credit to Elton John) to that of an
international statesman who could rub shoulders comfortably with the
likes of China’s Xi Jinping, South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in, and, of
course, Trump. The diplomacy in 2018 was unparalleled in its form and
briefly raised hopes that North Korea might disarm and reorient decades
of its national defense, foreign, and security policies to herald a new age in
Northeast Asia.
By the time this manuscript was finished in the second half of 2019,
those hopes had largely been dashed. The underlying thesis of this book—
that a nuclear-armed North Korea is a de facto reality that the international
community will have to live with—was one that underpinned much of my
ongoing commentary and analysis at the time. In this book, I look back on
the evidence supporting it while interrogating possible alternatives and the
policy approaches that might best support a turn toward a more peaceful,
stable Northeast Asia within the ever-tightening constraints that emerge
from North Korea’s maturation as a possessor of nuclear weapons.
This book would ultimately not have been possible without the support
of countless individuals: friends, mentors, teachers, colleagues, sources,
and family.
Over the course of my study of North Korea, I have benefited
tremendously from the insights and work of countless analysts and
scholars that preceded me. Many of them I have spoken to personally for
hours and hours, and others I have corresponded with remotely or read and
referenced. While by no means an exhaustive list, I’d like to especially
thank James Acton, Nobu Akiyama, Jieun Baek, Andrea Berger, Joe
Bermudez, Laura Bicker, Bob Carlin, Victor Cha, Chun In Bum, Shea
Cotton, Ferenc Dalnoki-Veress, John Delury, Abraham Denmark,
Catherine Dill, Michael Duitsman, Michael Elleman, Mark Fitzpatrick,
Aidan Foster-Carter, Go Myong-hyun, Sheena Greitens, Melissa Hanham,
Nathan Hunt, Kentaro Ide, Van Jackson, Robert Kelly, Duyeon Kim, Bruce
Klingner, Scott LaFoy, Marco Langbroek, Lee Byeonggu, Minyoung Lee,
Seongmin Lee, Jeffrey Lewis, Grace Liu, Jonathan McDowell, Curtis
Melvin, Adam Mount, Vipin Narang, Junya Nishino, Stephen Noerper,
Ramon Pacheco-Pardo, Jung Pak, Kee Park, Sokeel Park, Anne Pellegrino,
Marty Pfeiffer, Dan Pinkston, Tom Plant, Joshua Pollack, Mira Rapp-
Hooper, Cheryl Rofer, David Santoro, Markus Schiller, Dave Schmerler,
Sugio Takahashi, John K. Warden, and Xu Tianran. I’m especially grateful
to Kelsae Adame for her exceptional research assistance. Chris Biggers
and Rob Simmon at Planet made looking at North Korea from afar a much
easier task for me.
A few others not in the preceding list above requested they not be
named specifically given security concerns. I am nevertheless grateful for
their contributions. Moreover, this book could not have been what it is
without the willingness of those with special insight in intelligence
analysis and military operations who were willing to speak with me,
sharing their unparalleled insight. Because they were not authorized to
share what they did with me and did so at personal and professional risk,
their contributions to my understanding of the matters discussed in this
book are uncredited except where anonymously footnoted. Nevertheless, I
am endlessly indebted to these sources and their willingness to share what
they could to expand our public understanding of North Korea.
Without the support I’ve received as a writer and thinker at The
Diplomat, I could not have arrived at a point personally and professionally
where I would be capable of writing this book. My colleagues there over
the years, including Shannon Tiezzi, Katie Putz, Prashanth Parameswaran,
Franz Stefan-Gady, and Zachary Keck, have been a constant source of
inspiration. James Pach, The Diplomat’s publisher, deserves exceptional
thanks for taking a chance on me when I was starting out as a young,
aspiring writer on international affairs. With James’ encouragement and
support, I found space to grow and mature at The Diplomat.
I also extend particular thanks to my supportive colleagues at the
Federation of American Scientists, including my friend Adam Mount, who
has been highly supportive of my research efforts on North Korea and
other matters. I am also deeply grateful for the support of FAS President
Ali Nouri, Hans Kristensen, Matt Korda, Abigail Stowe-Thurston,
Mercedes Trent, and Pia Ulrich. I’m additionally deeply grateful to Chad
O’Carroll, Oliver Hotham, and the entire Korea Risk Group (KRG) team,
including staff at NK News, for their exceptionally deep ongoing coverage
of North Korea and the region. The site’s KCNAWatch tool, in particular,
was an invaluable research resource for referencing years of archived
North Korean state media. Some of the analysis that appears in this book
was initially presented in written work for KRG’s NK Pro portal, where I
have been a contributing analyst since 2018.
The very opportunity for this book to come into existence would very
likely not have been possible without a fortuitous encounter over a dinner
in Brooklyn, New York, with Mike Dwyer, publisher at Hurst. I’m grateful
to Mike for his active support and friendship. As an editor myself, I’ve
learned that the role may be one of the most thankless in the publishing
world; accordingly, it must be said that this book benefited tremendously
from the edits made by Lara Weisweiller-Wu at Hurst. I’m grateful also to
Tom Feltham and Daisy Leitch for stewarding months of copy edits and
fact checks and Alison Alexanian for help promoting the book. Whatever
errors remain are mine and mine alone. I also appreciate support from
Dave McBride and Macey Fairchild at Oxford University Press in New
York City.
Getting this book to where it needed to go would not have been
possible without the support of family and friends. My parents, Minati and
Sanjay, ensured that I’d have the sort of upbringing that’d leave me
forever endlessly curious about world affairs. I am grateful for their love
and support as I pursued a career as a writer. My brother, Aman,
meanwhile, continues to serve as a reminder of what hard work looks like.
For always keeping me good spirits, I owe quite a bit to my friends at the
Lampshade and Crowbar Society and other dear friends in New York City
(if you’ve been to one of my holiday parties recently, this means you).
A boundless thank you above all to my partner, Lindsay, who endured
months of my absence as I traveled, wrote late into the night, and
obsessively pored over images, spreadsheets, and documents to write this
book. Without your support and love, none of what I do could be possible
—quite literally. Without you at my side, it would have been impossible to
find the time or space to conclude a project of this length. It’s because of
you that I’m a better writer, thinker, and person now than I was when we
first got to know each other at sixteen. Thank you.
Ankit Panda
New York City
May 2020