Junk Bonds This page intentionally left blank Junk Bonds How High Yield Securities Restructured Corporate America Glenn Yago New York Oxford Oxford University Press 1991 Oxford University Press Oxford New York Toronto Delhi Bombay Calcutta Madras Karachi Petaling Jaya Singapore Hong Kong Tokyo Nairobi Dar es Salaam Cape Town Melbourne Auckland and associated companies in Berlin Ibadan Copyright © 1991 by the Oxford University Press, Inc. Oxford is a registered trademark of Oxford University Press All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of Oxford University Press, Inc. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Yago, Glenn. Junk bonds: how high yield securities restructured corporate America / Glenn Yago. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-19-506111-X 1. Junk bonds—United States. 2. Junk bonds—United States—Case studies. I. Title. HG4963.Y34 1990 332.63'234—dc20 90-35876 987654321 Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper Preface This book is about one of the most important breakthroughs in the effort by U.S. industry to restructure itself in the face of global competition: high yield corporate securities. I will argue that in the late 1970s the color of the biggest blue chip stocks began to fade as investment grade companies steadily lost jobs and American industry faced a. general competitive decline. I will show that as this was happening companies that raised funds in the junk bond market created jobs four times faster than the economy as a whole, experienced one-third greater growth in productivity, fifty percent faster growth in sales, and about three times faster growth in capital spending. But while high yield bonds—usually referred to as "junk bonds"—were gaining popularity by reducing financial imitations on many firms, they were also generating considerable controversy that remains unsettled at this writing. Volatility in the stock market is accompanied by volatility in the bond markets, and most recent issues of high yield bonds have been withdrawn for lack of buyers. Whatever the outcome of this uncertain marketplace, the future of the junk bond market and restructuring in general will be based on the economic questions examined in this book and the evolving answers in the years ahead. In writing this book I heard a parable about the political controversy sur- rounding such financing that had made its way around the junk bond market. The interpretation of this baseball analogy speaks volumes about the political vi Preface economy of junk bonds and buyouts in our time. Imagine there was once a baseball team with the biggest and strongest players in history. For years, they always won. As baseball was played at that time, the sheer magnitude of the size and girth of the players determined who would win. Suddenly, the team started losing games. Puzzled by this turn of events, the owner went to the manager and asked how this could happen. How had their playing or the competition changed? "Well, there are these new guys," said the manager. "They move fast and throw fast balls, curve balls, and sliders." "Okay," replied the owner, "teach your guys to hustle and how to hit fast balls, curve balls, and sliders." Assuming that the manager could manage and the matter of losing would end, the owner turned on his heel and left. As the weeks went by, the team kept losing. Once again the owner ap- proached the manager, who confessed, "I'm sorry. I've got the biggest and strongest players. Buy they're also the dumbest players I've ever worked with. I've tried, but they just can't learn to move fast, hit curve balls and sliders, and compete the way the game is now being played. You've got only one choice if you want this club to win. Go to the Commissioner and change the rules. Slow the game down, get him to outlaw fast balls, curve balls, and sliders." For nearly three decades after World War II, American business played slow, strong, and easy. Each year the largest corporations increased their employment, share of profits and sales, and concentrated their corporate power. By the mid-1970s, however, the great push and shove of international trade and technological change caused the largest American businesses to lose their competitive edge. As new foreign and domestic businesses showed up on the business playing field to compete, major corporations that had once relied on sheer size and strength to maintain their market share were suddenly losing ground to smaller competitors. Some were even facing takeover threats from companies a fraction of their size. What corporate leaders had perceived as the preordained alignment of the economic universe—the primacy of large, diversified, multidivisional U.S. corporations in increasingly concentrated industries—changed. To resist that change, companies tried to learn new management styles and strategies. Cor- porate strategies of diversification ensued in the 1970s along with popular management theories. Business and policy fads abounded—Q factors, Z theories, and reaches for excellency and beyond were part of the vision to regain competitiveness. But competitiveness is not found gained in the pages of a book skimmed at 30,000 feet. If anything, the theories and fads of the late 1970s and early 1980s were nothing more than part of the resistance to change, a way to ra- tionalize a style of corpocracy that had long ceased to function properly. In spite of this, something was working in our economy during this period, something that would manifest itself in the robust economy and low unemployment that the United States enjoyed later in the 1980s. Greater Preface vii access to credit and capital fueled an economic boom; the primary tool to capital access was the high yield bond. Junk bonds were not a fad and, despite some excesses, the concept behind them was fundamentally sound. The concept behind junk bonds also represented a fundamental shift in the concept of the purpose of our capital markets. The old days, when credit markets were open only to investment grade companies, were also easy days. Companies were judged on past performance. If an entity had been profitable and nothing material had changed, then it was judged likely to continue to be profitable. A company was not downgraded until after some significant adverse event had occurred. Thus the American capital markets financed American companies on the basis of their past, not their future. And therein lies the true revolution caused by junk bonds: the concept that a company should be judged on its potential, rather than what it has previously accomplished. A country that finances on the basis of past performance will never finance the future. This page intentionally left blank Acknowledgments This book represents the cooperative and collaborative efforts of many peo- ple that have supported and assisted in my research efforts over the past years. Though very much a team effort, I accept individual responsibility for the accuracy and representation of the facts about the junk bond market and corporate restructuring as I have come to see them; however, the facts about this difficult, complex, and controversial market were never simple or straightforward to come by, analyze, or interpret. The 1980s were a period of enormous experimentation, creativity, and trial and error innovation in the financial and business worlds. During that period, tremendous economic value was created in new industries and technologies at the cutting edge of economic change. Since my research began in 1985, each new research pro- ject brought me into contact with other analysts, researchers, and financial and business practitioners from whom I have learned a great deal. Moreover, I was extremely fortunate to lead an extremely talented team of researchers that contributed to the various data and case study analyses covered in this book. I have also learned a great deal from other researchers and writers in this area including Professor Edward Altman (New York University), Professor Michael Jensen (Harvard University), Professor Gregg Jarrell (Rochester University), Professor Robert Sobel (Hofstra University), Professor Mike Smith (University of Nottingham), Professor Frank Lichtenberg (Columbia
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