Judgment and decision making as a skill : learning, development, and evolution

329 Pages·2012·1.602 MB·English

by  Mandeep K Dhami, Anne Schlottmann, Michael Waldmann

Judgment and Decision Making as a Skill
Learning, Development and Evolution
editedby
MandeepK.Dhami,AnneSchlottmann,
andMichaelR.Waldmann
This book presents a comprehensive review of emerging theories and
researchonthedynamicnatureofhumanjudgmentanddecisionmaking
(JDM). Leading researchers in the fields of JDM, cognitive develop-
ment,humanlearning,andneurosciencediscussshort-termandlong-
term changes in JDM skills. The authors consider how such skills
increaseanddeclineonadevelopmentalscaleinchildren,adolescents,
and theelderly; howtheymay belearned; and howJDM skills canbe
improvedandaided.Inaddition,beyondthesebehavioralapproachesto
understandingJDMasaskill,thebookprovidesfascinatingnewinsights
from recent evolutionary and neuropsychological approaches. The
authors identify opportunities for future research on the acquisition
and changing nature of JDM. In a concluding chapter, eminent past
presidents of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making provide
personalreflectionsandperspectivesonthenotionofJDMasadynamic
skill.
mandeep k. dhami received her Ph.D. in Psychology from City
University,Londonin2001.BeforejoiningtheUniversityofCambridge
in2005,sheheldacademicappointmentsattheMaxPlanckInstitutefor
Human Development, Germany; University of Maryland, USA; and
UniversityofVictoria,Canada.
anne schlottmann studied at the Ruhr Universität Bochum, then
went on a Fulbright scholarship to the University of California, San
Diego,whereshereceivedherPh.D.in1991.Sincethenshehasbeen
atUniversityCollegeLondonwheresheisnowaSeniorLecturerinthe
DevelopmentalScienceDepartment.
michael r. waldmann was a graduate student at the Max Planck
InstituteforPsychologicalResearch,Germany,andobtainedhisPh.D.
in1988fromtheUniversityofMunich.Since1998hehasbeenProfessor
ofPsychologyattheUniversityofGöttingen.

Judgment and Decision Making
as a Skill
Learning, Development and Evolution
editedby
Mandeep K. Dhami,
Anne Schlottmann,
and
Michael R. Waldmann
cambridge university press
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Singapore,SãoPaulo,Delhi,Tokyo,MexicoCity
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©CambridgeUniversityPress2012
Thispublicationisincopyright.Subjecttostatutoryexception
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noreproductionofanypartmaytakeplacewithoutthewritten
permissionofCambridgeUniversityPress.
Firstpublished2012
PrintedintheUnitedKingdomattheUniversityPress,Cambridge
AcataloguerecordforthispublicationisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary
LibraryofCongressCataloguinginPublicationdata
Judgmentanddecisionmakingasaskill:learning,development,andevolution/
editedbyMandeepK.Dhami,AnneSchlottmann,andMichaelR.Waldmann.
p. cm.
Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.
ISBN978-0-521-76781-1
1. Judgment. 2. Decisionmaking. I. Dhami,MandeepK.,
1972– II. Schlottmann,Anne. III. Waldmann,Michael.
BF447.J833 2011
153.803–dc23
2011016798
ISBN978-0-521-76781-1Hardback
CambridgeUniversityPresshasnoresponsibilityforthepersistenceor
accuracyofURLsforexternalorthird-partyinternetwebsitesreferredto
inthispublication,anddoesnotguaranteethatanycontentonsuch
websitesis,orwillremain,accurateorappropriate.
Contents
Listoffigures pagevii
Listofcontributors ix
Preface xii
Acknowledgments xiv
Chaptercross-referencetable xv
PartI EvolutionaryandneuralbasesofJDM 1
1 Theevolvedfoundationsofdecisionmaking
an dreas wil ke and peter m. todd 3
2 Neuralbasesofjudgmentanddecisionmaking
oshin vartani an and david r. mandel 29
PartII DevelopmentalapproachestoJDM 53
3 Judgmentanddecisionmakinginyoungchildren
an ne sc hlott m an n a nd frie dri ch w il ke nin g 55
4 Judgmentanddecisionmakinginadolescents
wa¨ ndi bruine de bruin 85
5 Aginganddecisionskills
ell en pet ers an d wa¨ ndi bruine de bruin 113
PartIII LearningJDM 141
6 Learningofjudgmentanddecision-makingstrategies
rui m ata a nd jo¤rg rieskamp 143
7 Causalmodelsinjudgmentanddecisionmaking
york hagmayer and david a. lagnado 169
v
vi Contents
8 Learningjudgmentanddecisionmakingfrom
feedback
ni gel h a r ve y 199
PartIV ImprovingandaidingJDM 227
9 Improvingjudgmentanddecisionmakingthrough
communicationandrepresentation
pe te r s e dl m ei er an d d en is j. hilt on 229
10 Aidingjudgmentanddecisionmaking
j. fra nk y at es an d an dre a m . an g ot t 259
Conclusion 289
11 Perspectivesonjudgmentanddecisionmaking
asaskill
mandeep k. dhami, anne schlottmann,
michael r. waldmann, james shanteau,
thomas s. wallsten, baruch fischhoff,
irwin p. levin (with joshua a. weller and
elaine a. bossard), valerie f. reyna,
jonathan baron, robin m. hogarth, joshua
klayman, and michael h. birnbaum 291
Index 307
Figures
Figure3.1 2-sampleprobabilitychoicetask. page58
Figure3.2 Meanprobabilityjudgmentforfourages. 60
Figure3.3 Probabilityandexpectedvaluetasksforchildren. 62
Figure3.4 MeanEVjudgmentsoffour-tosix-year-olds,
seven-toeleven-year-olds,andadults. 63
Figure3.5 MeanjudgmentsofEVfortheworthofsingleand
pairsofindependentspinnergames. 65
Figure3.6 (a)Meanjudgmentsofsixteen6-year-oldsbased
on4successivesamplesfor16differentsequences;
(b)serialweightcurvesderivedfromthese
judgmentsshowrecencyasindicatedbythe
upswingofthecurves. 71
Figure6.1 Gainsandlossesassociatedwithgoodandbad
decksintheIowagamblingtask. 149
Figure6.2 Displaysillustratingtheuseof(a)theweighted
additiveand(b)take-the-beststrategies. 154
Figure7.1 Causaltextureoftheenvironmentvs.non-causal
judgmentmodel. 171
Figure7.2 Potentialcausalmodelsunderlyingtherelations
betweencriterionandcues. 173
Figure7.3 Predictingacriterionfromcombinationsofcues. 178
Figure7.4 Exemplarycasewhenacuewithahighervalidity
isnotthebestcueforanintervention. 182
Figure7.5 Typicalscenarioresultinginbase-rateneglect(a),
onecausemodelrepresentationofthedecision
problem(b),commoneffectmodelrepresentation
ofthedecisionproblem(c). 187
Figure8.1 Lensmodeldiagramshowingrelations(a)
betweencriterionandcues,(b)betweenjudgment
andcues,and(c)betweendifferentcues.Also
shownaremeasuresofperformanceassessedby
thecorrelations(a)betweenjudgmentsandvalues
vii
viii Listoffigures
ofthecriterion(achievement),(b)between
judgmentsandpredictedjudgments(cognitive
control),and(c)betweenlinearlypredicted
judgmentsandlinearlypredictedcriterionvalues
(knowledgeormatching). 202
Figure9.1 Agraphicaldepictionofthecentralargumentof
thechapter. 231
Figure9.2 Numberofflightswith(a)incidentsinthe
shuttleprogram,and(b)allflightsdependingon
temperatureatlaunch. 237
Figure9.3 IllustrationofthelocationsofbulletholesWald
foundonreturningcombataircraft. 238
Figure9.4 Differentwaystorepresentthepossiblecausal
relationshipbetweentemperatureandproblems
atlaunchforthespaceshuttleprogram:
(a)showsanincompleteanderror-proneversion,
(b)illustratesthepiecesofinformationmissing,
and(c)givesacompletetabularrepresentation
necessarytodrawavalidcausalconclusion
(seetextforfurtherexplanation). 240
Figure9.5 Illustrationof(a)thestock,(b)theflow,and
(c)thecorrectsolutionforasimplestock-flowtask. 243
Figure9.6 Screenshots(excerpts)fromacomputer
simulationthatillustratesthesamplingprocessin
theoriginalversionofthematernitywardtask. 250
Figure10.1 Dimensionsofdecisioneffectivenessasoverall
decisionquality. 266
Figure10.2 Thecardinaldecisionissueperspective. 272
Contributors
ANDREA M. ANGOTT, isapostdoctoralassociateattheFuquaSchoolof
Business,DukeUniversity.
JONATHAN BARON, is Professor of Psychology at the University of
Pennsylvania.
MICHAEL H. BIRNBAUM, is Professor of Psychology at California State
University,Fullerton.
ELAINE A. BOSSARD, is a doctoral candidate of Psychology at the
UniversityofIowa.
WÄNDIBRUINEDEBRUIN,isanassistantprofessorintheDepartmentsof
SocialandDecisionSciencesandofEngineeringandPublicPolicyat
CarnegieMellonUniversity.
MANDEEP K. DHAMI, isaseniorlecturerintheInstituteofCriminology
attheUniversityofCambridge.
BARUCHFISCHHOFF,istheHowardHeinzUniversityProfessorofSocial
and Decision Sciences and of Engineering and Public Policy at
CarnegieMellonUniversity.
YORKHAGMAYER,isaseniorlecturerintheDepartmentofPsychologyat
theUniversityofGöttingen.
NIGEL HARVEY, is Professor of Judgment and Decision Research at
UniversityCollegeLondon.
DENIS J. HILTON, isProfessorofSocialPsychologyattheUniversityof
Toulouse.
ROBIN M. HOGARTH, is Research Professor at ICREA & Universitat
PompeuFabra,Barcelona.
JOSHUA KLAYMAN, is Professor Emeritus of Behavioral Science at the
University of Chicago Booth School of Business and Professorial
FellowatMelbourneUniversityintheMelbourneBusinessSchool.
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