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CambridSgeer ioenJs u dgmeanntdD ecisMiaokni ng JudgamneDdne tc iMsaikoinn g Researchienrsa g rowinngu mbeorf f iel-dpsu blpioclc iyl,a wb,u siness, medicipnsey,c holeonggyi,n eerainndog t,h e-rasr ew orkintgou nder­ stanadn di mprovheu manj udgmeanntd d ecisiomna kinTgh.i bos ok, whicphr esupponsoesf ormatlr ainibnrgi,nt gosg etahs eerl ectoifko eny articilnet sh ea reaw,i thc arefourlg anizaitnitorno,d uctainodcn osm,­ mentariIess.s uiensc lumdeed icdaila gnoswiesa,t hfeorr ecast,li anbgor negotiatriiosnpksu,,b lpiocl ibcuys,i nesstsr ateegyy,e witntesess tim,o ny andm ore. Thiiss a r eviseeddi tiooftn h e1 986c ollecotfip oanp erJsu,d gmaenndt DeciMsaikoi1en1dgi t,be ydH alA rkesa ndK enH ammondT.h ef ocuosf thiusp dataedn de xtendveodl umiesi nterdiscipalnidna aprpyl iTheed . papesres lecatrede scieinnnt aitfiucrb eu,tc hosetnoa ppeatlo t hsec holar, studeanntd,l ayperasloink e. TerrCyo nnolilsFy I NOVAP rofesosfoM ra nagemeanntd P olicyt hien ColleogfeB usinesasn dP ubliAcd ministraattti hoenU niversiotfy Arizona. HalR .A rkesP riosf essoofPr s ycholaotgO yh ioU niveirtsy. KennetRh.H ammondi sE meritPurso fesosfPo sry cholaongdyD irector oft heC entefro rR esearcohn J udgmeanntd P oliactyt heU niversoifty ColoraBdoou,l der. Allt hreeed itoarrsep asptr esideonftt hse Soc ietyf orJ udgmenta nd DecisioMna king. CambriSdegroein eJ su dgmaennDdte cisMiaokni ng PublicaBtoiaornds JonathBaanr on UniversoifPt eyn nsylvania MichaBeilrn baum CalifoSrniat atUen iversity WilliMa.mG oldstein UniversoifCt hyi cago PasMte mbers HaiR.A rkes OhioU niversity DonN .K leinmuntz Universoiflt lyl inaotUi rsb ana-Champaign JohSn. C arroll MassachusIentsttist ouftT ee cnhology KenneRt.hH ammond UniversiotfCy o loraBdoou,l der lolLao pes UniversoifIt oyw a JamesS hanteau I<ansaSst atUen iversity Thep urpoosfet hsee riiesst oc onvetyh gee nerparli nciopfal nesdfi ndinagbosu t judgmeanntd d ecisimoank intgot hem anya cademaincdp rofessifioenladtlso whicthh ese applTyh.e c ontribuatriewo rnist tbeyna uthoriint tiheefis e ladn d supervibsyeh di ghqluy alifeideidt oarnsdt heP ublicatBoairdo.n sT hese ries wilalt trraecatd efrsro m manyd ifferednitsc iplilnaesrg,e laym onga cademics, advancuendd ergradugartaedsu,as tteu denatnsdp, r acticpironfge ssionals. Alsiont hsee ries InsitdheJe u rorT:h eP sychoolfoJ guyr Doerc isMiaokni negd,i tbedy R eiHda stie PsycholoPgeircsaple cotniJ vuess tiThceeo:ry a ndA pplialteidoint,bed y B arbaAr.a Mellearsn dJ onathBaanro n ReseaorncJ hu dgmean1tuiD ecisMiaokni nCgu:r mrtCso,n nectainodnC so,n trover­ sieesd,i tbeydW illiMa.mG oldstaenidRn o biMn. H ogarth Judgmeanntd D ecision-MRaeksieanrgci hnA ccountai1n1Agdu ditiendgi,t ebdy RobertH .A shtoann dA lisHon.As hton OrganizatDieoncails ion Maekdiintgbedy, Z urS hapira Judgmenatn dD ecisiMoank ing An InterdisciRpelaidnearr y SeconEdd ition Editbeyd TerCroyn nolly UniveorAfsr iitzyo na HaiARr.k es OhiUon iversity KennRe.Ht ahm mond UniveorCfso iltoyr ado CAMBRIDGE ./ ... ;::U NIVERSITY PRESS PUBLISHEBDY T HEP RESSSY NDICATOEF T HEU NIVERSITOYFC AMBRIDGE TheP itBtu ildiTnrgu,m pingSttorne Ceatm,b ridgUen,i teKdi ngdom CAMBRIDGUEN IVERSITPYR ESS TheE dinburBguhi ldiCnagm,b ridCgBe2 2 RU,U K http://www.cup.cam.ac.uk 40W est2 0tSht reNeetw, YorkN,Y 10011-4U2S1A1 ,h ttp://www.cup.org 10S tamfoRroda dO,a kleiMgehl,b our3n1e6 6A,u stralia Ruizd eA larc1o3n,2 801M4a dridS,p ain © CambridUgnei versPirteys2 s0 00 Thisb ooki si nc opyrigShutb.j etcost t atuteoxrcye ption andt ot hep rovisioofrn esl evacnotl lecltiicveen saignrge ements, nor eproducotfia onnyp armta yt akpel acweit hout thew rittpeen rmissoifoC na mbridUgnei versPirteys s. Firpsutb lish2e0d0 0 Printiendt heU niteSdt atoefsA merica TypefPaalcaet i9n.o7/ 512p t. SystlbeTmjjX 28[ Ts] A catarleocgof rotdrh bioso iksa vailfraobmtl heBe r itLiisbhr ary. LibroafCr oyn grCeastsa loging-inD-aPtuab lication Judgmenatn dd ecisimoank in:ga ni nterdiscirpelaidneaIerr dy i tbeyd TerrCyo nnolHlayl,R .A rkesK,e nnetRh.H ammond-. Rev.e d. p. em.- (Cambridsgeer ioensj udgmeanntd d ecisimoank ing) Includbeisb liograprheifcearle nacnedis n dex. ISBN0 -521-623(5h5a-r3d cov-eIrS)B.N0 -521-626(0p2b-k1. ) 1.D ecisimoank ing.2 .J udgmentI..C onnolTleyr,r y. IV.S eries. IIA.r kesH,a lR .1,9 4-5 IIIH.a mmondK,e nnetRh. BF441.J79 1999 98-51484 302.3-dc21 CIP ISBN0 5216 23535 h ardback ISBN0 5 21 6216 0p2a perback Contents SerPireesfa ce page xi Contributors xiii EditPorresfat'cot e hS ee coEnddi tion xvii GenerIanlt roduction 1 Part1 I: ntroduacntdiOv oenrv iew 13 1 MultiattErviabluutaet ion 17 WarEdd waarndJdsR. o beNewrmta n 2 Judgmeunntd eUrn certaHienutryi:sa tnidBc isa ses 35 AmoTsv erasnkDdya niKaehln eman 3 CoherenacnedC orrespondeTnhceeo riinJe usd gment andD ecisMiaokni ng 53 KenneRt.hH ammond 4 EnhancDiinagg noDsetciics ions 66 JohAn.S wets Partl lA:p plicaitniP ounbslP iocl icy 83 5 illusainodMn isr agienPs u blPiocl icy 85 RichHa.Thr adl er 6 TheP sycholoofSg uyn Cko st 97 HaRl. A rkaensCd a theBrliunmee r 7 Value-FocTuhsiendk aibnoguS tt ratDeegciics iaotBn CsH ydro 114 RalLp.Kh e enaeynT di motLh.My c Daniels 8 MakinBge ttUesreo fS cienKtniofiwcl edge: SeparagtTi runtfhr oJmu stice 131 KenneRt.Hh a mmonLdew,i0s . H arveyJ,r a.n,Rd e iHda stie vii viii Contents Part IIAIp:p licaint iEocnosn omics 145 9 ChoicVeasl,u, ae nsdF rames 147 Daniel KaahnnAdem moaTsnv ersky 10 WhoU setsh Ceo st-BeRnuelfieotsfC hoicIem?p lications fotrh Neo nnatiSvtea toufMs icroec onomTihce ory 166 RichP.a Larrdr iRcikc,h Ea.Nr isdb eatntJd,a mNe.sM organ 11 Does StudyiEncgo nomIincsh iCbooipetr ation? 183 RobeHr.Ft r anThko,m aGsi lovainDcdeh n,nT .iR se gan Part IVL:e gaAlp plications 197 12 Leading Quaensdtt hiEeoy nesw itRneepsosr t 199 ElizabFe.Lo tfthu s 13 ExplanatioDecisni-oBna sedM aking 212 ReiHda staniNdea ncyP ennington 14 Decision RTehaesoornyDa,ob ulbeat n,dt hUet ility ofE rroneAocuqsui ttals 229 TerCryo nnolly Part V:M edicAaplp lications 241 15 Capturingin PHoelairciyn gD-eAciids iboyAn usd iologist2s4 5 JanDeoytl aen Sdh aAn.eTh omas 16 PhysicUisaeno sfP' ro babilIinsftoircm ation in aR eaCll iniSectatiln g 259 JaJy. C hJr.i stenseann-JdSa zamlBesa.B n usskhiy head 17 On thEel icitoafPt reifoenre nfcoeArsl ternaTthievrea pies 272 BarbJaM.rc aN eSitle,p Gh.Pe anu ,keH raroCl.Sd o xJ,r ., anAdm oTsv ersky 18 EnhancIendt erpreotfDa itaigonno Ismtaigce s 281 DavJiG.de tRtoyn,a Ml.Pd i ckCaertlJt D.,' Orsi, anJdo hAn.S wets Part VI:E xperts 301 19 ReducitnhIgen flueonfcI er releIvnafnotr mation onE xperieDnecceids Miaokne rs 305 GaryJ G.a eatnhJd a mSehsa nteau 20 ExpeJrutd gmeSonmte: N ecessCaornyd itainodna snE xample3 24 HilJlE.ei ln horn 21 TheE xpeWrti tnesins P sycholaongdPy s ychiatry 336 DavFiadu asntJd a Zyi skin Contents ix ± Part:F orecastainndPg r ediction 349 22 atF orec(asSetsem toM)e an 353 Br ucFhis chhoff 23 Ptppearn dI mpropLeirn eMaord els 378 R�byn M.D awes 24 �'venC omponeonfJt usd gmenFtoarelc astSikilln:g 5plicatfiooRrne ss eaarncdth h Iem provemoefFn otr ecasts3 95 vrmasR .S tewaarntCd y ntMh.iL au sk ParVtI DB:a rgainianngdN egotiation 419 �I 25 JudgmePnotl icioefNs e gotiaatnodtr hsSe tru cture of egotiation Problems 423 Jel L .M umpower 26 eE ffecotfA genatnsd M ediatoonrsN egotiaOtuitocno mes 442 �x H.B azerMmaarng,a Ar.Ne eatl Kaet,h leLe.Vn a lley, Etrd]Z.a jaancYd,o nMgi nK im Part�Risk 461 27 Ri$wki thRiena son 465 Rith]a.Zr edc khaaunsWde. Kr i Vpi scusi 28 �k PercepatnidCo onm munication 479 BaruFcihs chAhnonBff o,s traonMmda, r iJlaycnQo ubasd rel J 29 P ceivReids Tkru,s ta,n dD emocracy 500 � PalS lovic ParXt�R esearMceht hods 515 I 30 V:t_�eE licitIasTt hieornAe:n ythiinng There? 517 B:LcFhi schhoff 31 �e Overconfidence Phaesan C oomnesneoqnu ence of: mforEmxaple rimenterSe-lGeucitdoiefoAd nl manIatce ms 544 Pe�Jeurs tin 32 Thk A PriorCia se AgGarianpshto lMoegtyh:o dological an�C onceptIusaslu es · 556 MJ! yaB ar-HainlGdle erls hon Ben-Shakhar I Part�! CritiqaunedNs e wD irectIi ons 571 33 The Two CamopnRs a tionality 575 Hef mutJ ungermann 34 � CognitIilvleu sainodTn hse Iimrp lications 592 r W Edwards anDde tvonl oWfi nterfrldt

Description:
Researchers in a growing number of fields--public policy, law, business, medicine, psychology, engineering, and others--are working to understand and improve human judgment and decision making. This book, which presupposes no formal training, brings together a selection of key articles in the area,
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Judgment and Decision Making: An Interdisciplinary Reader (Cambridge Series on Judgment and Decision Making) PDF

806 Pages·1999·27.56 MB·English
by  Terry Connolly
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CambridSgeer ioenJs u dgmeanntdD ecisMiaokni ng JudgamneDdne tc iMsaikoinn g Researchienrsa g rowinngu mbeorf f iel-dpsu blpioclc iyl,a wb,u siness, medicipnsey,c holeonggyi,n eerainndog t,h e-rasr ew orkintgou nder­ stanadn di mprovheu manj udgmeanntd d ecisiomna kinTgh.i bos ok, whicphr esupponsoesf ormatlr ainibnrgi,nt gosg etahs eerl ectoifko eny articilnet sh ea reaw,i thc arefourlg anizaitnitorno,d uctainodcn osm,­ mentariIess.s uiensc lumdeed icdaila gnoswiesa,t hfeorr ecast,li anbgor negotiatriiosnpksu,,b lpiocl ibcuys,i nesstsr ateegyy,e witntesess tim,o ny andm ore. Thiiss a r eviseeddi tiooftn h e1 986c ollecotfip oanp erJsu,d gmaenndt DeciMsaikoi1en1dgi t,be ydH alA rkesa ndK enH ammondT.h ef ocuosf thiusp dataedn de xtendveodl umiesi nterdiscipalnidna aprpyl iTheed . papesres lecatrede scieinnnt aitfiucrb eu,tc hosetnoa ppeatlo t hsec holar, studeanntd,l ayperasloink e. TerrCyo nnolilsFy I NOVAP rofesosfoM ra nagemeanntd P olicyt hien ColleogfeB usinesasn dP ubliAcd ministraattti hoenU niversiotfy Arizona. HalR .A rkesP riosf essoofPr s ycholaotgO yh ioU niveirtsy. KennetRh.H ammondi sE meritPurso fesosfPo sry cholaongdyD irector oft heC entefro rR esearcohn J udgmeanntd P oliactyt heU niversoifty ColoraBdoou,l der. Allt hreeed itoarrsep asptr esideonftt hse Soc ietyf orJ udgmenta nd DecisioMna king. CambriSdegroein eJ su dgmaennDdte cisMiaokni ng PublicaBtoiaornds JonathBaanr on UniversoifPt eyn nsylvania MichaBeilrn baum CalifoSrniat atUen iversity WilliMa.mG oldstein UniversoifCt hyi cago PasMte mbers HaiR.A rkes OhioU niversity DonN .K leinmuntz Universoiflt lyl inaotUi rsb ana-Champaign JohSn. C arroll MassachusIentsttist ouftT ee cnhology KenneRt.hH ammond UniversiotfCy o loraBdoou,l der lolLao pes UniversoifIt oyw a JamesS hanteau I<ansaSst atUen iversity Thep urpoosfet hsee riiesst oc onvetyh gee nerparli nciopfal nesdfi ndinagbosu t judgmeanntd d ecisimoank intgot hem anya cademaincdp rofessifioenladtlso whicthh ese applTyh.e c ontribuatriewo rnist tbeyna uthoriint tiheefis e ladn d supervibsyeh di ghqluy alifeideidt oarnsdt heP ublicatBoairdo.n sT hese ries wilalt trraecatd efrsro m manyd ifferednitsc iplilnaesrg,e laym onga cademics, advancuendd ergradugartaedsu,as tteu denatnsdp, r acticpironfge ssionals. Alsiont hsee ries InsitdheJe u rorT:h eP sychoolfoJ guyr Doerc isMiaokni negd,i tbedy R eiHda stie PsycholoPgeircsaple cotniJ vuess tiThceeo:ry a ndA pplialteidoint,bed y B arbaAr.a Mellearsn dJ onathBaanro n ReseaorncJ hu dgmean1tuiD ecisMiaokni nCgu:r mrtCso,n nectainodnC so,n trover­ sieesd,i tbeydW illiMa.mG oldstaenidRn o biMn. H ogarth Judgmeanntd D ecision-MRaeksieanrgci hnA ccountai1n1Agdu ditiendgi,t ebdy RobertH .A shtoann dA lisHon.As hton OrganizatDieoncails ion Maekdiintgbedy, Z urS hapira Judgmenatn dD ecisiMoank ing An InterdisciRpelaidnearr y SeconEdd ition Editbeyd TerCroyn nolly UniveorAfsr iitzyo na HaiARr.k es OhiUon iversity KennRe.Ht ahm mond UniveorCfso iltoyr ado CAMBRIDGE ./ ... ;::U NIVERSITY PRESS PUBLISHEBDY T HEP RESSSY NDICATOEF T HEU NIVERSITOYFC AMBRIDGE TheP itBtu ildiTnrgu,m pingSttorne Ceatm,b ridgUen,i teKdi ngdom CAMBRIDGUEN IVERSITPYR ESS TheE dinburBguhi ldiCnagm,b ridCgBe2 2 RU,U K http://www.cup.cam.ac.uk 40W est2 0tSht reNeetw, YorkN,Y 10011-4U2S1A1 ,h ttp://www.cup.org 10S tamfoRroda dO,a kleiMgehl,b our3n1e6 6A,u stralia Ruizd eA larc1o3n,2 801M4a dridS,p ain © CambridUgnei versPirteys2 s0 00 Thisb ooki si nc opyrigShutb.j etcost t atuteoxrcye ption andt ot hep rovisioofrn esl evacnotl lecltiicveen saignrge ements, nor eproducotfia onnyp armta yt akpel acweit hout thew rittpeen rmissoifoC na mbridUgnei versPirteys s. Firpsutb lish2e0d0 0 Printiendt heU niteSdt atoefsA merica TypefPaalcaet i9n.o7/ 512p t. SystlbeTmjjX 28[ Ts] A catarleocgof rotdrh bioso iksa vailfraobmtl heBe r itLiisbhr ary. LibroafCr oyn grCeastsa loging-inD-aPtuab lication Judgmenatn dd ecisimoank in:ga ni nterdiscirpelaidneaIerr dy i tbeyd TerrCyo nnolHlayl,R .A rkesK,e nnetRh.H ammond-. Rev.e d. p. em.- (Cambridsgeer ioensj udgmeanntd d ecisimoank ing) Includbeisb liograprheifcearle nacnedis n dex. ISBN0 -521-623(5h5a-r3d cov-eIrS)B.N0 -521-626(0p2b-k1. ) 1.D ecisimoank ing.2 .J udgmentI..C onnolTleyr,r y. IV.S eries. IIA.r kesH,a lR .1,9 4-5 IIIH.a mmondK,e nnetRh. BF441.J79 1999 98-51484 302.3-dc21 CIP ISBN0 5216 23535 h ardback ISBN0 5 21 6216 0p2a perback Contents SerPireesfa ce page xi Contributors xiii EditPorresfat'cot e hS ee coEnddi tion xvii GenerIanlt roduction 1 Part1 I: ntroduacntdiOv oenrv iew 13 1 MultiattErviabluutaet ion 17 WarEdd waarndJdsR. o beNewrmta n 2 Judgmeunntd eUrn certaHienutryi:sa tnidBc isa ses 35 AmoTsv erasnkDdya niKaehln eman 3 CoherenacnedC orrespondeTnhceeo riinJe usd gment andD ecisMiaokni ng 53 KenneRt.hH ammond 4 EnhancDiinagg noDsetciics ions 66 JohAn.S wets Partl lA:p plicaitniP ounbslP iocl icy 83 5 illusainodMn isr agienPs u blPiocl icy 85 RichHa.Thr adl er 6 TheP sycholoofSg uyn Cko st 97 HaRl. A rkaensCd a theBrliunmee r 7 Value-FocTuhsiendk aibnoguS tt ratDeegciics iaotBn CsH ydro 114 RalLp.Kh e enaeynT di motLh.My c Daniels 8 MakinBge ttUesreo fS cienKtniofiwcl edge: SeparagtTi runtfhr oJmu stice 131 KenneRt.Hh a mmonLdew,i0s . H arveyJ,r a.n,Rd e iHda stie vii viii Contents Part IIAIp:p licaint iEocnosn omics 145 9 ChoicVeasl,u, ae nsdF rames 147 Daniel KaahnnAdem moaTsnv ersky 10 WhoU setsh Ceo st-BeRnuelfieotsfC hoicIem?p lications fotrh Neo nnatiSvtea toufMs icroec onomTihce ory 166 RichP.a Larrdr iRcikc,h Ea.Nr isdb eatntJd,a mNe.sM organ 11 Does StudyiEncgo nomIincsh iCbooipetr ation? 183 RobeHr.Ft r anThko,m aGsi lovainDcdeh n,nT .iR se gan Part IVL:e gaAlp plications 197 12 Leading Quaensdtt hiEeoy nesw itRneepsosr t 199 ElizabFe.Lo tfthu s 13 ExplanatioDecisni-oBna sedM aking 212 ReiHda staniNdea ncyP ennington 14 Decision RTehaesoornyDa,ob ulbeat n,dt hUet ility ofE rroneAocuqsui ttals 229 TerCryo nnolly Part V:M edicAaplp lications 241 15 Capturingin PHoelairciyn gD-eAciids iboyAn usd iologist2s4 5 JanDeoytl aen Sdh aAn.eTh omas 16 PhysicUisaeno sfP' ro babilIinsftoircm ation in aR eaCll iniSectatiln g 259 JaJy. C hJr.i stenseann-JdSa zamlBesa.B n usskhiy head 17 On thEel icitoafPt reifoenre nfcoeArsl ternaTthievrea pies 272 BarbJaM.rc aN eSitle,p Gh.Pe anu ,keH raroCl.Sd o xJ,r ., anAdm oTsv ersky 18 EnhancIendt erpreotfDa itaigonno Ismtaigce s 281 DavJiG.de tRtoyn,a Ml.Pd i ckCaertlJt D.,' Orsi, anJdo hAn.S wets Part VI:E xperts 301 19 ReducitnhIgen flueonfcI er releIvnafnotr mation onE xperieDnecceids Miaokne rs 305 GaryJ G.a eatnhJd a mSehsa nteau 20 ExpeJrutd gmeSonmte: N ecessCaornyd itainodna snE xample3 24 HilJlE.ei ln horn 21 TheE xpeWrti tnesins P sycholaongdPy s ychiatry 336 DavFiadu asntJd a Zyi skin Contents ix ± Part:F orecastainndPg r ediction 349 22 atF orec(asSetsem toM)e an 353 Br ucFhis chhoff 23 Ptppearn dI mpropLeirn eMaord els 378 R�byn M.D awes 24 �'venC omponeonfJt usd gmenFtoarelc astSikilln:g 5plicatfiooRrne ss eaarncdth h Iem provemoefFn otr ecasts3 95 vrmasR .S tewaarntCd y ntMh.iL au sk ParVtI DB:a rgainianngdN egotiation 419 �I 25 JudgmePnotl icioefNs e gotiaatnodtr hsSe tru cture of egotiation Problems 423 Jel L .M umpower 26 eE ffecotfA genatnsd M ediatoonrsN egotiaOtuitocno mes 442 �x H.B azerMmaarng,a Ar.Ne eatl Kaet,h leLe.Vn a lley, Etrd]Z.a jaancYd,o nMgi nK im Part�Risk 461 27 Ri$wki thRiena son 465 Rith]a.Zr edc khaaunsWde. Kr i Vpi scusi 28 �k PercepatnidCo onm munication 479 BaruFcihs chAhnonBff o,s traonMmda, r iJlaycnQo ubasd rel J 29 P ceivReids Tkru,s ta,n dD emocracy 500 � PalS lovic ParXt�R esearMceht hods 515 I 30 V:t_�eE licitIasTt hieornAe:n ythiinng There? 517 B:LcFhi schhoff 31 �e Overconfidence Phaesan C oomnesneoqnu ence of: mforEmxaple rimenterSe-lGeucitdoiefoAd nl manIatce ms 544 Pe�Jeurs tin 32 Thk A PriorCia se AgGarianpshto lMoegtyh:o dological an�C onceptIusaslu es · 556 MJ! yaB ar-HainlGdle erls hon Ben-Shakhar I Part�! CritiqaunedNs e wD irectIi ons 571 33 The Two CamopnRs a tionality 575 Hef mutJ ungermann 34 � CognitIilvleu sainodTn hse Iimrp lications 592 r W Edwards anDde tvonl oWfi nterfrldt

Description:
Researchers in a growing number of fields--public policy, law, business, medicine, psychology, engineering, and others--are working to understand and improve human judgment and decision making. This book, which presupposes no formal training, brings together a selection of key articles in the area,
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