journal of applied quantitative methods journal of applied quantitative methods

133 Pages·2010·2.32 MB·English

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Editorial Board

JAQM Editorial Board

Editors
Ion Ivan, University of Economics, Romania
Claudiu Herteliu, University of Economics, Romania
Gheorghe Nosca, Association for Development through Science and Education, Romania

Editorial Team
Cristian Amancei, University of Economics, Romania
Sara Bocaneanu, University of Economics, Romania
Catalin Boja, University of Economics, Romania
Irina Maria Dragan, University of Economics, Romania
Eugen Dumitrascu, Craiova University, Romania
Matthew Elbeck, Troy University, Dothan, USA
Nicu Enescu, Craiova University, Romania
Bogdan Vasile Ileanu, University of Economics, Romania
Miruna Mazurencu Marinescu, University of Economics, Romania
Daniel Traian Pele, University of Economics, Romania
Ciprian Costin Popescu, University of Economics, Romania
Marius Popa, University of Economics, Romania
Mihai Sacala, University of Economics, Romania
Cristian Toma, University of Economics, Romania
Erika Tusa, University of Economics, Romania
Adrian Visoiu, University of Economics, Romania

Manuscript Editor
Lucian Naie, SDL Tridion

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Advisory Board
JAQM Advisory Board

Luigi D’Ambra, University “Federico II” of Naples, Italy
Ioan Andone, Al. Ioan Cuza University, Romania
Kim Viborg Andersen, Copenhagen Business School, Denmark
Tudorel Andrei, University of Economics, Romania
Gabriel Badescu, Babes-Bolyai University, Romania
Catalin Balescu, National University of Arts, Romania
Avner Ben-Yair, Sami Shamoon Academic College of Engineering, Israel
Constanta Bodea, University of Economics, Romania
Ion Bolun, Academy of Economic Studies of Moldova
Recep Boztemur, Middle East Technical University Ankara, Turkey
Constantin Bratianu, University of Economics, Romania
Irinel Burloiu, Intel Romania
Ilie Costas, Academy of Economic Studies of Moldova
Valentin Cristea, University Politehnica of Bucharest, Romania
Marian-Pompiliu Cristescu, Lucian Blaga University, Romania
Victor Croitoru, University Politehnica of Bucharest, Romania
Cristian Pop Eleches, Columbia University, USA
Michele Gallo, University of Naples L'Orientale, Italy
Bogdan Ghilic Micu, University of Economics, Romania
Anatol Godonoaga, Academy of Economic Studies of Moldova
Alexandru Isaic-Maniu, University of Economics, Romania
Ion Ivan, University of Economics, Romania
Radu Macovei, University of Medicine Carol Davila, Romania
Dumitru Marin, University of Economics, Romania
Dumitru Matis, Babes-Bolyai University, Romania
Adrian Mihalache, University Politehnica of Bucharest, Romania
Constantin Mitrut, University of Economics, Romania
Mihaela Muntean, Western University Timisoara, Romania
Ioan Neacsu, University of Bucharest, Romania
Peter Nijkamp, Free University De Boelelaan, The Nederlands
Stefan Nitchi, Babes-Bolyai University, Romania
Gheorghe Nosca, Association for Development through Science and Education, Romania
Dumitru Oprea, Al. Ioan Cuza University, Romania
Adriean Parlog, National Defense University, Bucharest, Romania
Victor Valeriu Patriciu, Military Technical Academy, Romania
Perran Penrose, Independent, Connected with Harvard University, USA and London University, UK
Dan Petrovici, Kent University, UK
Victor Ploae, Ovidius University, Romania
Gabriel Popescu, University of Economics, Romania
Mihai Roman, University of Economics, Romania
Ion Gh. Rosca, University of Economics, Romania
Gheorghe Sabau, University of Economics, Romania
Radu Serban, University of Economics, Romania
Satish Chand Sharma, Janta Vedic College, Baraut, India
Ion Smeureanu, University of Economics, Romania
Ilie Tamas, University of Economics, Romania
Nicolae Tapus, University Politehnica of Bucharest, Romania
Timothy Kheng Guan Teo, National Institute of Education, Singapore
Daniel Teodorescu, Emory University, USA
Dumitru Todoroi, Academy of Economic Studies of Moldova
Nicolae Tomai, Babes-Bolyai University, Romania
Viorel Gh. Voda, Mathematics Institute of Romanian Academy, Romania
Victor Voicu, University of Medicine Carol Davila, Romania
Vergil Voineagu, University of Economics, Romania

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Contents
Page

Editors’ Note – JAQM 2008 Awards Announcement 406

Quantitative Methods in Audit and Control

Daniela Ioana SANDU
Multidimensional Model for the Master Budget 408

Delia BABEANU, Valerica MARES
Standards Review on Mission of Management Information Systems Audit 422

Vladimir SIMOVIC, Vojkan VASKOVIC, Dusan POZNANOVIC
A Model of Credit Bureau in Serbia – Instrument for Preserving Stability of the 429
Banking Sector in Conditions of the Global Economic Crisis

Software Analysis

Lucio T. DE PAOLIS, Marco PULIMENO, Giovanni ALOISIO
Different Simulations of a Billiards Game 440

Emil BURTESCU
Database Security - Attacks and Control Methods 449

Quantitative Methods Inquires

John P. FELDMAN, Ron GOLDWASSER, Shlomo MARK,
Jeremy SCHWARTZ, Itzhak ORION
A Mathematical Model for Tumor Volume Evaluation using Two-Dimensions 455

Chin-Lien WANG, Li-Chih WANG
A Forecasting Model with Consistent Adjustments 463
for Anticipated Future Variations

Dima ALBERG, Mark LAST, Avner BEN-YAIR
Induction of Mean Output Prediction Trees 485
from Continuous Temporal Meteorological Data

Oana STANCU (DINA), Iulia TEODORESCU (GABOR),
Catalina Liliana ANDREI, Emanuel RADU, Octavian ZARA
The Impact of Pacing Mode and the Anatomical Position 496
of Pacing Lead on the Incidence of Heart Failure

Antonio LUCADAMO, Giovanni PORTOSO
Different Approaches using the Normal and the Exponential Distribution 505
in the Evaluation of the Customer Satisfaction

Lindita ROVA, Romeo MANO
The Impact of Financial Crisis on the Quality of Life 514

Claudiu HERTELIU, Alexandru ISAIC-MANIU
Statistical Indicators for Religious Studies: Indicators of Level and Structure 525

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Contents
Page

Book Review

Valerica MARES
Book Review on AUDIT AND INFORMATION SYSTEMS CONTROL 532
(“AUDITUL SI CONTROLUL SISTEMELOR INFORMATIONALE”), by Pavel NASTASE
(coord.), Eden ALI, Floarea NASTASE, Victoria STANCIU, Gheorghe POPESCU,
Mirela GHEORGHE, Delia BABEANU, Dana BOLDEANU, Alexandru GAVRILA, Ed.
Economica, Bucharest, 2007

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Editors’ Note – JAQM 2008 Awards

Ion IVAN
PhD, University Professor, Department of Economic Informatics
Faculty of Cybernetics, Statistics and Economic Informatics
University of Economics, Bucharest, Romania

E-mail: [email protected] ; Web Page: http://www.ionivan.ro

Claudiu HERTELIU
PhD, Assistant Professor, Department of Statistics and Econometrics,
University of Economics, Bucharest, Romania

E-mail: [email protected], Web page: http://www.hertz.ase.ro

Gheorghe NOSCA
PhD, Association for Development through Science and Education, Bucharest, Romania

E-mail: [email protected]

We are happy to announce the winners of JAQM 2008 Awards.

After deliberations, the winners are:

1st Category

For his very important contribution in promoting and developing Quantitative Methods in
Academia, as a recognized scholar, we grant to:

Régis BOURBONNAIS
from Université de Paris-Dauphine

the 2008 JAQM Medal of Honor

2nd Category

For the most valuable, Quantitative Methods related, paper published in JAQM,
we granted to:

Alexandru ISAIC-MANIU Viorel Gh. VODA
from University of Economics, from Mathematics Institute of Romanian
and
Bucharest, Romania Academy, Bucharest, Romania

the 2008 JAQM Best Paper Award

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Editors’ Note – JAQM 2008 Awards

3rd Category

For the most promising young researcher in Quantitative Methods area, we grant to:

Marius Emanuel POPA
from University of Economics, Bucharest, Romania

the 2008 JAQM Distinction

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Quantitative Methods in Audit and Control

MULTIDIMENSIONAL MODEL
FOR THE MASTER BUDGET

Daniela Ioana SANDU1
PhD Candidate at the University of Economics, Bucharest, Romania
Senior BI Consultant at IBM, Milan, Italy

E-mail: [email protected], [email protected]

Abstract: In a dynamic business environment characterized by extreme competitiveness and
the need to quickly adapt to new and changing market condition, information has became an
asset. Timely and quality information are the basis for quality decisions, and only quality
decisions help survive and prosper on the market. Business intelligence applications help the
management take quality decisions. Business Performance Management applications steer the
entire organization in the same direction, enabling the organization to translate strategies into
plans, monitor execution, and provide insight to improve both financial and operational
performance. A BPM implementation often combines financial with non-financial metrics that
can identify the health of an enterprise from a variety of perspectives. BI and BPM applications
implement multidimensional models, powerful models for data analysis and simulation. The
present paper describes a multidimensional model that supports the construction of the master
budget of an enterprise with simulation facilities.

Key words: business performance management; business intelligence; planning; budgeting

1. Business Performance Management

Wayne Eckerson from The Data Warehousing Institute defines BPM as being “a
series of processes and applications designed to optimize the execution of business strategies”,
while Lee Geishecker, research director of the well-known research institution Gartner Inc
defines BPM as being a set of „ methodologies, metrics, processes and systems used to
monitor and manage an enterprise’s business performance”.
The term Business Performance Management – BPM is synonym with the terms
Corporate Performance Management - CPM , Enterprise Performance Management - EPM and
means steering the organization in the same direction by allowing the transformation of
strategies in plans, monitoring the plans execution and offering detail information on the
organization evolution for improving the enterprise’s operational and financial
performances. A BPM implementation combines financial with non-financial metrics in order
to identify the degree of health of the economic organization from a variety of perspectives.
A BPM software solution contains standard components such as:
• Planning, budgeting and forecasting: components that allows defining plans,
creating budgets and forecasts;

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Quantitative Methods in Audit and Control

• Financial and statutory consolidation: a component that allows realizing the
consolidated balance sheet at the level of a group of companies belonging to the
same holding;
• Scorecarding: a component that allows defining performance metrics and
dashboards;
• Reporting and analysis;
• Business Intelligence (BI).

Strategic
Planning
Forecast Budgeting
BI
Analysis
Consolidation
Reporting
Figure 1. The BPM process

2. Planning, budgeting and forecasting

A budget is the translation of strategic plans into measurable quantities that express
the expected resources required and anticipated returns over a certain period.
As defined in [8], there are several types of budgets:
• Short term (month to month, year to year) versus long term budgets (5 years);
• Fixed versus rolling budgets. A fixed budget covers a specific time frame, usually one
fiscal year. At the end of the year a new budget is prepared for the following year. A
rolling budget is a plan that is continually adapted so that the time frame remains
stable while the actual period covered by the budget changes (for example: as each
month passes, the one-year rolling budget is extended by one month so that there is
always a one-year budget in place).
• Incremental versus zero-based budgeting. Incremental budgets extrapolate from
historical figures: in determining the budget for the next period managers look at the
previous period’s budget and actuals (past figures are increased by a set percentage
or by an absolute value). In zero-based budgets each new budgeting cycle starts
from a zero base or from the ground up as though the budget were prepared for the
first time. Zero-based budgets require managers to perform a much more in-depth
analysis of each line item.

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Quantitative Methods in Audit and Control

The budgeting process produces the
The MASTER BUDGET
master budget. The master budget brings all
the pieces together incorporating the operating
budget and the financial budget:
Operating Financial
- the operating budget consists of
budget budget
budgets from each function (research
and development, production,
Development Capital budget
marketing, distribution, customer
and research
service) and provides the budgeted
income statement;
Design Cash budget
- the financial budget includes capital
budget, the cash budget, the budgeted
balance sheet, the budgeted cash flow. Production
The master budget integrates Balance Sheet
budget
operational and financial budgets and is
Marketing
created with an iterative process during which
information flows back and forth from each Cash Flow
element of the master budget. budget
Distribution
Planning is a strategic prediction of
business performance at a summary level.
Customer
Plans are defined by senior managers who
Service
help the company respond to changing market
conditions and opportunities. The process is
frequent and must be completed quickly.
Figure 2. The Master budget components
Budgeting is planning distributed to
individual areas of responsibility across the
business. Many more people are involved in the process and the work is done at a greater
work of detail. Budgeting is a slow process, often taking weeks and performed once or twice
a year.
Forecasting is a revision of the budget (sometimes in at a summarized detail) to
reflect changing market conditions, strategic plan alterations, error corrections, revised
assumptions in the original approved budget. Organizations typically re-forecast monthly; a
handful of finance personnel take part in the process.

Table 1. Planning, budgeting and forecasting (source: [8]2)
Frequency Speed Detail level Personnel involved
Planning Often Quick Summary Senior management
Budgeting Annual Slow Highly detailed All departments
Forecasting Monthly Quick Summary, light Finance
detailed

Budgeting performs 4 basic functions, each critical to a company in achieving its
strategic objectives: planning, coordinating and communicating, monitoring progress,
evaluating performance.
Planning, budgeting and forecasting are the most important management
functions. Their main purpose is to enable senior managers to see the financial implications
of various business scenarios. It is a continuous and rapid cycle that provides a near-real-

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