Journal and proceedings of the Royal Society of New South Wales

134 Pages·2000·12.1 MB·English

by  Royal Society of New South Wales

Journal and Proceedings
of the
Royal Society
of
New South Wales
2021
Volume 154 Part1
Numbets 481 & 482
“*.. for the encouragement of studies and investigations in Science Art Literature and Philosophy ..””
THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF NEW SOUTH WALES
OFFICE BEARERS FOR 2021
Patron Her Excellency The Honourable Margaret Beazley AC QC Governor
of New South Wales
President Dr Susan Pond AM FRSN DSc (UQ) FRACP FTSE FAHMS FAICD
Vice-President Ms Judith Wheeldon AM FRSN BS (Wis) MEd (Syd) FACE
Past President Em. Professor Ian Sloan AO FRSN PhD (UCL) FAA
Hon. Secretary(Gen) Mr Bruce Ramage MRSN
Hon. Treasurer Mr John Cameron MRSN
Hon. Librarian Mr John Hardie FRSN FHEA FGS MACE
Hon. Webmaster Em. Professor Lindsay Botten FRSN PhD (Tas) FOSA FAIP FAusMS
Councillors Professor Katherine Belov AO FRSN BSc(Hons) PhD (Macq)
Ms Pamela Griffith FRSN
Dr Donald Hector AM FRSN PhD (Syd)
Dr Davina Jackson FRSN FRGS FRSA PhD (Kent)
The Honourable Virginia Judge FRSN
Professor Eric Knight FRSN DPhil (Oxon)
Em. Professor Robert Marks FRSN FRSA PhD (Stan)
Em. Professor Christina Slade FRSN BA PhD (ANU) Grad Dip Ed
Hunter Branch
Representative Professor George Willis FRSN PhD (Ncle on Tyne)
Southern Highlands
Branch Rep. Mr Mike Jonas MRSN
Executive Office The Association Specialists
EDITORIAL BOARD
Em. Prof. Robert Marks FRSN FRSA MEngSci ResCert MS PhD (Stan) — Hon. Editor
Prof. Richard Banati FRSN MD PhD
Prof. Michael Burton FRSN MA MMaths (Cantab) PhD (Edinb) FASA FAIP
Dr. Jessica Milner Davis FRSN PhD (UNSW)
Dr Len Fisher OAM FRSN BA BSc(Hns) MA MSc PhD (UNSW) FRSC FRACI FInstP FLS
Dr Donald Hector AM FRSN BE(Chem) PhD (Syd) FIChemE FIEAust FAICD
Em. Prof. David Brynn Hibbert AM FRSN PhD (Lond) CChem FRSC FRACI
Dr Nick Lomb BSc (Syd) PhD (Syd) FASA FRSA
Prof. Timothy Schmidt FRSN BSc (Syd) PhD (Cantab)
Website: https://www.royalsoc.org.au
The Society traces its origin to the Philosophical Society of Australasia founded in Sydney in 1821. The Society exists for
“the encouragement of studies and investigations in Science Art Literature and Philosophy”: publishing results of scientific
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in the Journal and Proceedings.
ISSN (printed) 0035-9173
ISSN (online) 2653-1305
Journal & Proceedings of the Royal Society ofN ew South Wales, vol. 154, part 1, 2021,
pp. 1-5. ISSN 0035-9173/21/o10001-05
Editorial: Where did the virus come from?
Robert Marks
Economics, University of New South Wales, Sydney
Email: [email protected]
he pandemic continues, with the sci- Journal — went to the late Dr Ann Moyal
ence behind the COVID-19 vaccines FRSN, for her 2017 paper (Moyal, 2017),
taking a bow. There are ongoing enquiries written to discuss war-time correspond-
about how the virus emerged, but Edward ence between Dr Moyal’s late husband,
Holmes, FRSN and NSW Scientist of the Professor José Moyal, erstwhile professor at
Year 2020, tells me that there is absolutely Macquarie, and P. A. M. Dirac, the preemi-
no evidence of an engineered virus. Indeed, nent Nobel laureate physicist of his time at
he says, the genotype shows all the evidence Cambridge. Although Dirac was skeptical
of a zoonotic origin, although whence and of Moyal’s statistics approach to quantum
exactly when it first infected people remain mechanics, history has vindicated Moyal:
unclear. the most recent count from Google Scholar
This issue of the Journal contains three for Moyal (1949), a paper that summarised
refereed papers: one in reference to the
an earlier unpublished paper (that Dirac had
late Douglas Adams’ (2002) thoughts (the persuaded Moyall to delay), is 3798 cites, at a
‘puddle theory’) on the likelihood of human rate of over 13 cites per month, amazing for
life — indeed, any life — in the universe; a quite abstruse paper published over sev-
one on the Ellesmere meteorite, found in enty years ago. The Archibald Ollé Award
August 1900 in northern NSW, not southern was last presented in 1997.
Queensland as erroneously believed; and a As well as the three reviewed papers
paper on self-sensing concrete, by Wengui mentioned above, this issue includes a new
Li et al. section, ‘Great N.SW. Inventions,’ record-
Indeed, 2020 was the year in which the ing in this issue a presentation made at the
Society awarded the Warren Prize for the November 2020 O.G.M. on the role of two of
first time, to Dr Simon Devitt, a quantum our Fellows in the amazing development of
computer scientist at UTS. The aim of the the virtual elimination of peptic ulcers. Was
Prize is to recognize research of national it an example of synchronicity that Adrian
or international significance by Australian Lee FRSN had found that, far from being
engineers and technologists in their early to germ-free, mammalian stomachs are alive
mid careers. In each case, the research must with bacteria that appear to relish the inhos-
have originated or have been carried out pitable environs of the stomach and gut
principally in New South Wales. I look for- at the same time that Barry Marshall and
ward to publishing a promised paper from Robin Warren isolated the bacterium now
Dr Devitt soon.
A second award in 2020 — the Archibald 1 Moyal had recently escaped from occupied France,
Ollé Award for Best Paper published in the and had been directed to work at de Havilland’s by
C. P. Snow, then in charge of Scientific Manpower.
JOURNAL & PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF NEW SOUTH WALES
Marks — Editorial: Where did the virus come from?
known as Helicobactor pylori from human Michael Burton (2013-2015) and Donald
stomachs, and suspected that it was impli- Hector (earlier) were the editors immedi-
cated in peptic ulcers? Previously, peptic ately before me.
ulcers were believed to be caused by excess This year marks the two-hundredth
stomach acid, or spicy food? anniversary of the Philosophical Society
Adrian Lee and Thomas Borody FRSN of Australasia, which is the direct ances-
provided the means for establishing that tor of today’s Royal Society of New South
Marshall and Warren were right, using the Wales. Given this timely anniversary, I am
methodology of the Koch postulates. Borody sad to note that the Federal Government is
and Lee developed a therapy to kill the bac- refusing to fund the National Archives of
teria in vivo, a necessary step in the proof. Australia adequately; the Archives, under
Marshall and Warren shared the Nobel Prize the Attorney-General’s Department, have
in Physiology in 2005 for their discovery. I been reduced to appealing for donations
agree with Peter Baume FRSN and others from Australian citizens, an unwelcome
that both Adrian Lee and Thomas Borody version of crowdfunding. Meanwhile, other
deserved to share in the Nobel glory. national institutions, such as the Austral-
The issue also includes the seven presenta- ian War Memorial, are being more than
tions by the participants in last November’s adequately funded by the Federal Govern-
Four Academies Forum on “After COVID- ment. To celebrate our two-hundredth
19: Creating the Best of Times from the anniversary, the Royal Society will pre-
Worst of Times,” as well as a discussion, the sent the exhibition, ‘The Royal Society of
Governor’s opening address, and the rap- New South Wales. Nexus: Origins, Ideas,
porteur’s summing-up. Will the government Advances, Impacts, 1821-2021 at the State
take their advice after the pandemic? This Library of NSW from late June 2021. A per-
remains to be seen. sonal note: one of my oldest friends, John
The issue also includes three PhD C. H. Spence ForMemRS, died aged 75 in
abstracts. June 2021; he published a paper here in 2019.
Since 2013 the Journal has been fortunate
Housekeeping
to have had 118 reviewers and helpers in the
process of processing papers. Such people I wish to thank Jason Antony for his excel-
have not been publicly thanked for some lent work at formatting this issue of the
years, but we acknowledge them explicitly Journal, while at the same time editing the
in this issue, with their names and affilia- Society’s Bulletin. The Editorial Board has
provided excellent editorial support, as
tions listed below. This is my eleventh issue;
always. See the inside front cover for the
Board’s membership.
2 See Graham and Dore (2016) for a comprehensive
discussion of this.
3 We could not determine the affiliations of three
people: Peter Ackland, Xanthe Lam, and Alan Palmer.
If you have information on any of these, or any other
person on the list, please let us know: we can amend
the on-line documents. Sadly, Brian Spies FRSN
(1949-2020) has died since his seminal contribution
to the 2016 Forum (Spies, 2017).
JOURNAL & PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF NEW SOUTH WALES
Marks — Editorial: Where did the virus come from?
References Moyal, J. E. (t949). Quantum mechanics as a
Adams, D. (2002). The Salmon of Doubt. William statistical theory. Proceedings of the Cambridge
Philosophical Society, 45, 99-124.
Heinemann.
Spence, J. C. H. (2019). Speed limit: How the
Graham, D. Y., & Dore M. P. (2016).
search for an absolute frame of reference
Helicobacter pylori therapy: A paradigm shift.
in the universe led to Einstein’s equation
Expert Rev. Anti Infect, Ther, 14(6), 577-585.
E=mc? — a history of measurements of the
Moyal, A. (2017). P. A. M. Dirac and the
speed of light. Journal & Proceedings of the
maverick mathematician. Journal &
Royal Society of New South Wales, 152, 216-241.
Proceedings of the Royal Society of New South
Spies, B. (2017). The science and politics of
Wales, 150(2), 188-194.
climate change. Journal & Proceedings of the
Royal Society ofN ew South Wales, 150, 48—6o.
Thank you
The Editor of the Journal & Proceedings of the Royal Society of New South Wales would like to
acknowledge and thank the following 18 researchers, together with the Editorial Board,
who reviewed articles for the Journal, or suggested appropriate reviewers, from 2073 to 2021.
Peter Ackland Andrew Blakers Eric Colhoun
Australian National University University of Newcastle
Olivier Alard Mark Bradford Warwick Couch
Macquarie University UNSW Syd ney Swinburne University of Technology
Barry Allen Rachael Brown Graham Davies
Medical Scitec Australia Australian National University UNSW Sydney
Micheal S. Allen Michael Burton Stephen Duckett
University of Florida UNSW Sydney
Grattan Institute
Trevor Allen David Blair Andrew Dzurak
Geoscience Australia University of Western Australia UNSW Sydney
Mike Archer Howard Bridgman David C. Earnest
UNSW Sydney University of Newcastle University of South Dakota
Eric Aslaksen Andrew Boulton Gary Egan
Gumbooya Pty Lrd, Sydney University of New England Monash University
Linda Bartolomei Maria Byrne Wayne Erskine ft
UNSW Sydney University of Sydney
Robin Beck Simon Carlile David Fenwick
UNSW Sydney University of Sydney University of Technology Sydney
David Black Jaavan Chahl Len Fisher
UNSW Sydney University of South Australia University of Bristol
+ DECEASED
JOURNAL & PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF NEW SOUTH WALES
Marks — Editorial: Where did the virus come from?
Sean Fitzsimmons Heinz Hora lain Macgill
University of Otago UNSW Sydney UNSW Sydney
Ken Freeman Vadim Kamenetsky Stuart Macintyre
Australian National University
University of Tasmania University of Melbourne
Alex Frino Jim Kehoe Andrew Mackintosh
University of Sydney UNSW Sydney Monash University
Matthias Gauly Brian Kennett Roy MacLeod
University of Bolzano Australian National University University of Sydney
Jim Gehling R. Keller Kopf Haggai Mazuz
South Australian Museum Charles Darwin University Bar-Ilan University
Ian Gilbert Thaddeus D. Ladd Robert F. Melchers
UNSW Sydney HRL Laboratories University of Newcastle
Mike Lake Francesca Merlan
Ken Graham
Australian Museum University of Technology Sydney Australian National University
Des Griffin Xanthe Lam Barbara Messerle
University of Sydney
Australian Museum
Jeff Grossman Charlie Lineweaver Bernard Michaux
NASA HQ
Australian National University Kaukapakapa, NZ
Elliott Gyger Nick Lomb John Morley
University of Melbourne Sydney Observatory Western Sydney University
Suzanne Hand Pamela Long Daniel Mérlein
UNSW Syd ney MacArthur Fellow University of Gottingen
Geoff Harcourt Mitchell Low Ann Moyal tT
University ofA delaide Curtin University
Chris Harmer Ye Lu Clare Murphy
University of Sydney Monash University University of Wollongong
Don Hector FRSN Yiu-Wing Mai Guy Narbonne
University of Sydney Queen’s University
Brynn Hibbert John McCaughey Oliver Nebel
UNSW Sydney Astra Choir Monash University
Grant Hollaway Scott Mooney Nigel Nettheim
Agriculture Victoria UNSW Syd ney Western Sydney University
Edward Holmes Vaughan Macefield Frank Nichols
University of Sydney Baker Heart & Diabetes Institute University of Sydney
* DECEASED
JOURNAL & PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF NEW SOUTH WALES
Marks — Editorial: Where did the virus come from?
Ray Norris Alan Rubin Ian Wilkinson
Western Sydney University UCLA University of Sydney
Justin O'Brien Brian Schmidt John Williamson
UNSW Syd ney Australian National University University of Tasmania
Paul Ormerod Tim Senden David Wiltshire
Volterra.co.uk Australian National University University of Canterbury
Alan Palmer Fran Sheldon Joe Wolfe
Griffith University UNSW Sydney
Dean Popovski Carl Spandler Toshihiro Yamada
Hospital for Sick Children University ofA delaide Taisho University
Elsen Price Brian Spies f Greg Yaxley
Musical artist, Sydney Australian National University
Gianluca Ranzi Fiona Stapleton Ann Young
University of Sydney UNSW Sydney University of Syd ney
Mandy Reid John Storey Douglas Young
UNSW Sydney University of Sussex
Australian Museum
Gregory Retallak Adam Stow lan Young
University of Oregon Macquarie University University of Sydney
David Reubenheimer Martin van Kranendonk Robert Young
University of Sydney UNSW Sydney University of Sydney
Don Robertson Malcolm Walter Cosmos Zachos
University of Western Australia UNSW Sydney Argonne National Laboratory
Andrew Robson Ghil'ad Zuckermann
Kuo-Lung Wang
University of New England National Chi Nan University University ofA delaide
+ DECEASED
Ms
Journal & Proceedings of the Royal Society ofN ew South Wales, vol. 154, part 1, 2021,
pp. 6-11. ISSN 0035-9173/21/010006-06
The trouble with “puddle thinking:”
A user’s guide to the Anthropic Principle
Geraint F. Lewis! and Luke A. Barnes?
'Sydney Institute for Astronomy, The University of Sydney, Australia
2Western Sydney University, Australia
Email: [email protected]
Abstract
Are some cosmologists trying to return human beings to the centre of the cosmos? In the view of
some critics, the so-called “Anthropic Principle” is a desperate attempt to salvage a scrap of dignity
for our species after a few centuries of demotion at the hands ofs cience . It is all things archaic and
backwards — teleology, theology, religion, anthropocentrism — trying to sneak back in scientific
camouflage. We argue that this is a mistake. The anthropic principle is not mere human arrogance,
nor is it religion in disguise. Itisa necessary part of the science of the universe.
Introduction account of the coincidence must consider
how the Universe makes beings that are
[° the 1930s, the Nobel-Prize-winning
capable of measuring its age.
physicist Paul Dirac was pondering
Dicke realised that we cannot be living
strange coincidences between the funda-
at any random time in the universe. Firstly,
mental numbers of nature (Dirac, 1938). He
in its youth, the cosmos was a featureless
worked out the ratio of the electromagnetic
sea of the simplest atoms: hydrogen and
force to the gravitational force between an
helium. The elements needed for life — from
electron and proton in an atom and got a
the carbon that provides the backbone for
huge number: ro‘. He also worked out the
organic molecules, to the calcium that pro-
ratio of the age of the universe to the time it
vides the backbone for our backbones — are
takes for electrons to orbit in an atom and got
formed in nuclear reactions at the hearts
another huge number: 1029. Curiously, these
of stars and are recycled by stellar winds
numbers are similar. Maybe it’s just a coin-
and supernova explosions into planets, and
cidence, or maybe — Dirac thought — it’s a
ultimately life. Secondly, in the dim and dis-
clue to deeper laws of nature.
tant future, most of the stars have died, and
In the early 1960s, astronomer Robert
the energy to sustain life becomes rare. The
Dicke compellingly argued that it was nei-
building blocks for planets and people are
ther (Dicke, 1961). He realised that there
entombed in the ever-cooling cores of stars
is something usual about Dirac’s relation,
or inside black holes. Life, in this distant
something hiding inside one of the quanti-
future universe, would be precarious, and
ties: us. Like all of us, the universe is getting
probably much rarer than today.
older. So, the age of the universe in Dirac’s
Putting these two facts together, given
second ratio isn’t a fundamental constant.
that life exists at all, we should not be sur-
It’s the time between the beginning of
prised to find that when we measure the
the universe and us, here, now, today. Any
JOURNAL & PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF NEW SOUTH WALES
Lewis and Barnes — A user’s guide to the Anthropic Principle
age of the universe, we get an answer that logical fine-tuning problem: the ability of
is greater than (but not too much greater the fundamental laws of our universe to
than) the lifetime of a star. When we express provide the right conditions for life of any
this relation in terms of the fundamental conceivable kind is a seemingly very rare
constants (using a simple model for stars), talent indeed. As summarised in our recent
we get Dirac’s coincidence. book A Fortunate Universe: Life in a finely
It is a mistake to think that Dicke is tuned cosmos (2016), many small changes have
saying that our time in the universe is “spe- disastrous effects. If the strong force were
cial,” that “our Universe stands at a ‘golden slightly weaker or the fundamental masses
interval’, neither too young nor too old, but slightly heavier, the periodic table would
just right.”! Rather, Dicke is employing a not exist. If gravity were weaker or the uni-
basic principle of the scientific method: verse expanded too fast, matter would not
what you observe depends on what you are form into stars to forge elements, or indeed
looking at and what you are looking with. make any structure at all. Such a universe
When it comes to the universe, we are not would be too simple, too short-lived, or too
Dr Frankenstein, setting up our scientific empty to ever host life.
equipment when and where we please. We Note well: we have arrived here without
are the monster: we have woken up in the any assumptions about human specialness
middle of the contraption that made us and or religious jiggery-pokery. Saying that the
are trying to understand how it all works. universe is “fine-tuned for life” is not to say
that it has a fine-tuner! It is only to say that
Looking through our eyes
there is something rare about the physical
The natural question for cosmologists and parameters that life requires. We’re just
physicists to ask next is: what else about doing science. Fine-tuning for life has been
our universe could be explained in this studied by physicists for decades, using the
way? What combination of fundamental best theoretical tools available, and pub-
laws and our necessarily limited perspec- lished in peer-reviewed journals.
tive best accounts for our observations of
Other life-forms and other universes
the universe?
In search of the answer, physicists delved Wait a minute, we hear you say. How can
into the deepest properties of nature, includ- you make such sweeping statements about
ing the masses of the fundamental particles life and universes when we don’t have a good
and the strengths of the fundamental forces. definition of what life is, and we don’t know
By considering other hypothetical universes, what other universes are even possible?
it was found that slight deviations in these For the first objection, we reply that the
fundamental properties often result in dead fine-tuning for life is really the fine-tuning
and sterile universes that lack the complex- for the complexity required by life. We don’t
ity necessary for life (for a recent review, see assume that another possible way the uni-
Adams 2019). This is known as the cosmo- verse could have been is life-prohibiting
1 “Anthropic arrogance,” David P. Barash, Aeon:
https://aeon.co/essays/why-a-human-centred-universe-
is-not-a-humane-one
JOURNAL & PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF NEW SOUTH WALES
Lewis and Barnes — A user’s guide to the Anthropic Principle
because we couldn’t live there. The kind of Whence the Anthropic Principle?
life-prohibiting disasters that await in other
The term “anthropic principle” comes from
universes are the non-existence of chemistry,
a presentation by astrophysicist Brandon
or indeed, any way at all to stick two parti-
Carter in 1973, at a celebration of Coper-
cles together. Or a universe that ends before
nicus’s 500‘ birthday. Building upon the
anything could stick together. Or a universe
insights of Dicke and others, Carter argued
that expands so fast that no two things have
that our position in time and space must be
any chance of sticking together. This is a
taken into account in our scientific theoris-
long way from the debate over whether a
ing about the world, noting that:
virus is alive.
Although our situation is not necessarily
But how do we know that these other uni-
central, it is inevitably privileged to some
verses are possible? As the ANU’s Charley
extent.
Lineweaver has pointed out to us, “There
Carter is echoing Dicke’s insight: there are
is no fine-tuning if there are no knobs.”
times and places in our universe where life is
But think about that claim for a moment.
overwhelmingly more likely to exist, and so
These other, life-prohibiting universes are
our perspective on the universe is necessarily
perfectly mathematically consistent. So who
limited. This is what Carter called the weak
took the knobs away? A deeper physical law?
anthropic principle.
Great! What is it? And why is it a physi-
Carter also proposed a strong anthropic
cal law that allows life forms, rather than
principle:
one that doesn’t? In the words of Carr and
The Universe (and hence the fundamen-
Rees (1979), “even if all apparently anthropic
coincidences could be explained [by some tal parameters on which it depends) must
presently unformulated physical theory], it be as to admit the creation of observers
would still be remarkable that the relation- within it at some stage.
ships dictated by physical theories happened This principle is liable to be misunderstood
also to be those propitious for life.”
due to the word “must.” Its sense here is
Perhaps something deeper than the consequential, as in “there is frost on the
laws of nature took the knobs away, like ground, so it must be cold outside.” We are
a metaphysical principle? Great! What is
physical life forms capable of measuring the
it? And why is ita metaphysical principle universe, but not all fundamental laws allow
that allows life forms, rather than one that
for such things. Carter’s strong anthropic
doesn’t? And what a stunning comeback
principle is not proposing that our existence
for armchair philosophy! Scientists have
causes the universe’s fundamental properties,
been toiling for centuries, learning about
or that any deep metaphysical principle or
the universe by actually measuring it. But divine being was involved.
all this time, we could have been deriving
Here’s where the confusion starts: others
the mass of the electron from some a priori
have not followed Carter. In 1986, physicists
philosophical principle with a deep affinity John Barrow and Frank Tipler published the
for the number 4.185463 x 10-3 (the electron influential book, The Cosmological Anthropic
mass in Planck units). Principle. They brilliantly explained how the
overall properties of the cosmos, the details